1billsfan Posted September 25, 2012 Posted September 25, 2012 I posted that poll on purpose to show you can't take a single poll in a vacuum. Spin the numbers all you want, Romney's going to lose. I made a bet with someone here about a year or so ago on this topic and somebody saved the parameters. Does that person care to step forward now? Spinning numbers? You guys keep posting ridiculously skewed polls in favor of Obama!...LOL I don't know if you're just trying to convince yourselves or what, but don't say that you weren't warned. Romney's going to win and it won't even be close.
Doc Posted September 25, 2012 Posted September 25, 2012 I agree with Juror that the more the polls claim that Barry is in the lead, the worse his turnout will be, figuring they have it in the bag.
The Big Cat Posted September 25, 2012 Posted September 25, 2012 Spinning numbers? You guys keep posting ridiculously skewed polls in favor of Obama!...LOL I don't know if you're just trying to convince yourselves or what, but don't say that you weren't warned. Romney's going to win and it won't even be close. Did you just completely ignore the first sentence of post you responded to??
1billsfan Posted September 25, 2012 Posted September 25, 2012 Did you just completely ignore the first sentence of post you responded to?? Taking polls collectively, like the RCP average, is a bogus exercise that has almost nothing to do with the reality of what will happen on election day. There's nothing "real" about averaging a bunch of skewed polls in favor of Obama. The silent majority of Americans who are embarrassed by this amateur president are going to kick ass once again just like they did in 2010. Between the skewed polls and the lazy Obama supporters not showing up on election day, this thing is shaping up to be one entertaining evening when Romney wins going away and the liberals/MSM collective heads explode like the people in the movie Scanners.
The Big Cat Posted September 25, 2012 Posted September 25, 2012 Taking polls collectively, like the RCP average, is a bogus exercise that has almost nothing to do with the reality of what will happen on election day. There's nothing "real" about averaging a bunch of skewed polls in favor of Obama. The silent majority of Americans who are embarrassed by this amateur president are going to kick ass once again just like they did in 2010. Between the skewed polls and the lazy Obama supporters not showing up on election day, this thing is shaping up to be one entertaining evening when Romney wins going away and the liberals/MSM collective heads explode like the people in the movie Scanners. Wanna bet?
B-Man Posted September 25, 2012 Posted September 25, 2012 Media Polls: The Newest Negative Campaign Ad Over the years, I've generally had little patience when partisans make the "polls are wrong" argument. I've usually found it to be the last refuge of campaigns which were clearly struggling. Sure, individual polls can be wrong, and some can occasionally produce a crazy outlier, but a collective average of polling produces a roughly accurate snapshot of the state of a race. This year, however, is different. The overwhelming majority of media polling this election employ such absurd assumptions about turnout this November that they not only misrepresent the presidential race, they are actively distorting it. I also believe it is intentional. In 2008, the electorate that elected Barack Obama was 39% Democrat, 32% GOP and 29% Independent. This is what we call a D+7 electorate. Obama defeated McCain by 7 points, the same margin. In 2004, the electorate was 37% Democrat, 37% Republican, and 26% Independent, in other words D/R +0. Bush defeated John Kerry by 3 points nationally. Yet, virtually every big media poll is based on a model in which Democrats equal or increase their share of the electorate over 2008. Beyond simple common sense, there are many reasons this won't happen. The Dem vote in '08 was the largest in decades. It came after fatigue of eight years of GOP control, two unpopular wars, a charming Democrat candidate who was the Chauncy Gardner of politics, a vessel who could hold everyone's personal dreams and hopes for a politician. It was a perfect storm for Democrats. None of the factors driving Democrat turnout in '08 exist today. Recent polls from AP, Politico and the daily tracking polls from Rasmussen and Gallup, all of which assume relatively lower Democrat turnout in November, show the race essentially tied. Only those polls showing an electorate with equal or greater numbers of Democrats show Obama with any sizable lead. Yet, it's these polls that are driving the political narrative. Every day the media launches a number of stories about Romney's "struggling" campaign. They cite anonymous GOP sources who wring their hands that the campaign is losing ground. The only real evidence of this, however, are the polls which heavily over-sample Democrat voters. Without these skewed polls, the media's narrative would be untenable. Quite simply, and apart from past years, the media have decided to weaponize the polls. The heavy D polls aren't just meant to reassure them that everything is okay in ObamaLand, but to actually hit the Romney campaign. The constant drumbeat echoed by unrealistic polls is designed to dampen fundraising, tap down on GOP enthusiasm and create a false narrative that Obama is pulling away with the race. In recent days, a number of pollsters have pushed back against criticism about the sampling in their polls. They argue that they are just picking up a big swing in the electorate towards the Democrats. If that were true, though, wouldn't we see signs of it outside the polls. Obama's speaking to much smaller venues than he did in 2008. There are far fewer signs and bumper stickers supporting Obama. Obama's main support bases, young voters and minorities, all show less enthusiasm for voting this year. None of this is dispositive, but if we were really seeing a return to the '08 Democrat wave wouldn't we, well, see it? Every election features something new, an evolution from past campaigns. This year's development is troubling. Polls are now being used, not simply to gauge the state of the race, but to impact the race. We're not far off from the day that the New York Times or CBS will have to file their polls as in-kind contributions to the Democrats. http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2012/09/25/media-polls-are-the-latest-negative-campaign-ad
Duck_dodgers007 Posted September 25, 2012 Posted September 25, 2012 Spinning numbers? You guys keep posting ridiculously skewed polls in favor of Obama!...LOL I don't know if you're just trying to convince yourselves or what, but don't say that you weren't warned. Romney's going to win and it won't even be close. Lol
1billsfan Posted September 25, 2012 Posted September 25, 2012 Wanna bet? Sorry bud but I haven't made a bet in years. It's just one person's opinion. BTW, this spreading of bad polls in favor of Obama is going to be one of the reasons he loses this election. You're going to have a significant portion of idiotic Obama people thinking he has the race won and that they don't even have to bother to go to the polls and vote. The Romney/anti-Obama people can't wait and they're going to be there with bells on (whatever that means). I don't know if you've got a gambling problem, but pleeeease don't bet on the Bills this weekend and give them your reverse funky-ass mojo. I so want them to beat the Pats!
DC Tom Posted September 25, 2012 Posted September 25, 2012 Spinning numbers? You guys keep posting ridiculously skewed polls in favor of Obama!...LOL I don't know if you're just trying to convince yourselves or what, but don't say that you weren't warned. Romney's going to win and it won't even be close. "My skewed polls are better than your skewed polls!"
OCinBuffalo Posted September 26, 2012 Posted September 26, 2012 (edited) I posted that poll on purpose to show you can't take a single poll in a vacuum. Spin the numbers all you want, Romney's going to lose. I made a bet with someone here about a year or so ago on this topic and somebody saved the parameters. Does that person care to step forward now? I'm doing the exact opposite. I'm taking the spin out of the numbers...and presenting them in the only objective way that exists. I told you not to base your feelings on this data...because they will be hurt, but you seem to be determined to do so regardless. Let me ask: did you KNOW about the bias in the sample...before you posted the poll...or only after I showed it to you? Did you just completely ignore the first sentence of post you responded to?? If you are telling us that no poll can be taken on its own....I only partly agree on that. Some polls have been done correctly, therefore you can take them on their own. Some polls have a +8 Democrat bias in them, like the one you posted, and therefore are simply wrong, under any objective standard. Certainly many polls, properly conducted, would give us a better answer than just one. However, mixing in polls like the crap you posted...merely distorts things. This is a matter of good science vs. bad. Don't tell me you don't know the difference. The methodology of your poll here sucks....and that's before we've even had a chance to look at the raw data, and how it was collected. This all comes down to what Tom said above about turnout....and....what happens with Independents. Whenever you and the rest of the left gets done talking, this will still be the case. And, you will still have a D vs R turnout gap problem, because of Obama's behavior...not because of some abstraction. That gap, and the turnout projections....are the ONLY thing that has been polled consistently correctly. And why? Because these media outlets, who are trying to spin up D turnout.....need to see how their efforts are doing, don't they? The problem that confronts the Ds and their media puppies: is low D turnout, or, = turnout...because Obama still loses in that scenario. The solution is trying to fire up the base by telling them they are doing better than they really are. Clearly, with his behavior over the last 2 years, and in the last year of campaigning...Obama has given up on independents. The man has thrown out red meat to his base, over and over, even though we all KNOW how bad that is for independents. So why do it? Answer: you think you aren't going to win them anyway, so it doesn't matter. This is the telling BEHAVIOR. Again...polls can tell us some things...but behavior....behavior tells us almost everything. Edited September 26, 2012 by OCinBuffalo
The Big Cat Posted September 26, 2012 Posted September 26, 2012 I'm doing the exact opposite. I'm taking the spin out of the numbers...and presenting them in the only objective way that exists. I told you not to base your feelings on this data...because they will be hurt, but you seem to be determined to do so regardless. Let me ask: did you KNOW about the bias in the sample...before you posted the poll...or only after I showed it to you? If you are telling us that no poll can be taken on its own....I only partly agree on that. Some polls have been done correctly, therefore you can take them on their own. Some polls have a +8 Democrat bias in them, like the one you posted, and therefore are simply wrong, under any objective standard. Certainly many polls, properly conducted, would give us a better answer than just one. However, mixing in polls like the crap you posted...merely distorts things. This is a matter of good science vs. bad. Don't tell me you don't know the difference. The methodology of your poll here sucks....and that's before we've even had a chance to look at the raw data, and how it was collected. This all comes down to what Tom said above about turnout....and....what happens with Independents. Whenever you and the rest of the left gets done talking, this will still be the case. And, you will still have a D vs R turnout gap problem, because of Obama's behavior...not because of some abstraction. That gap, and the turnout projections....are the ONLY thing that has been polled consistently correctly. And why? Because these media outlets, who are trying to spin up D turnout.....need to see how their efforts are doing, don't they? The problem that confronts the Ds and their media puppies: is low D turnout, or, = turnout...because Obama still loses in that scenario. The solution is trying to fire up the base by telling them they are doing better than they really are. Clearly, with his behavior over the last 2 years, and in the last year of campaigning...Obama has given up on independents. The man has thrown out red meat to his base, over and over, even though we all KNOW how bad that is for independents. So why do it? Answer: you think you aren't going to win them anyway, so it doesn't matter. This is the telling BEHAVIOR. Again...polls can tell us some things...but behavior....behavior tells us almost everything. So lets talk about Mitt's behavior in Pennsylvania--a state he HAS to win just to have a shot. He's pulled out all his resources, what does that behavior tell you?
OCinBuffalo Posted September 26, 2012 Posted September 26, 2012 (edited) So lets talk about Mitt's behavior in Pennsylvania--a state he HAS to win just to have a shot. He's pulled out all his resources, what does that behavior tell you? Nothing...other than: you don't know your Presidential election history very well. Look up how many Republicans have won PA...since WW2. Without looking...I'm pretty sure only Reagan has, in 1984...when he won ALL the states, except Minn(Mondale's home state). I never believed PA was in play. Yet, I do believe we've had mostly Republican Presidents since then....none of whom won PA. But, you have looked at it properly. If they have PA as unwinnable...then that tells us a lot more than a poll. The "coal state strategy" is not undone by losing the most Democratic state in it. Let's see what happens with IA, OH, VA, etc. The fact is that many states that aren't supposed to be ? for Obama...are. WI, MI, MN, OR. Money has to get spent there now. And if Romney is smart, he'll keep making Obama spend money/time defending states he isn't supposed to be. It may be over in PA...but not before Obama had to spend money...on things like banner planes flying over Pittsburgh? That's the real story here. Romney's approach is like using cavalry to disrupt Obama's supply lines, make him go back and patch them up, and Romney gets out without having to fight a major battle...on what is supposedly Obama's ground. This disrupts Obama's "grab 5k votes here and there" strategy, because now Obama, in order to pick up/regain the D vote in PA, has to alienate the I vote in Iowa, undoing whatever he did there. Not saying it will work, just seems like what Romney is doing. Obama trying to run a 50 state strategy was a joke....and now he's having to play defense in all sorts of places. Hey he may pull it off with some memorable speech or quote in a debate, so you never know... Edited September 26, 2012 by OCinBuffalo
/dev/null Posted September 26, 2012 Posted September 26, 2012 So lets talk about Mitt's behavior in Pennsylvania--a state he HAS to win just to have a shot. He's pulled out all his resources, what does that behavior tell you? I doubt Romney had any illusions about winning Pennsylvania. Any campaigning there was done to make Obama use resources to defend home turf and reach Eastern Ohio via Pittsburgh and Erie TV markets It may be over in PA...but not before Obama had to spend money...on things like banner planes flying over Pittsburgh? There was a Simpsons episode many years ago where Bart was running for class President against Martin (the nerdy kid). Everybody said they would vote for Bart and it was assumed the only people who would vote for Bart were Martin and Martin's nerdy friend. On Election day, Martin and his nerdy friend were the only two students who bothered to vote Just because you have a state in the bag, you still need to remind enough voters to actually go out and vote
Gary M Posted September 26, 2012 Posted September 26, 2012 . Hey he may pull it off with some memorable speech or quote in a debate, so you never know... He is more likely to have another "you didn't build that" moment.
fjl2nd Posted September 26, 2012 Posted September 26, 2012 (edited) It's pretty sad that some of you have just resorted to blaming the polls. Really? All of the polls are wrong except Rasmussen. Hahahahahahaha. Denial. New CBS/Quinnipac - Obama up 10 in Ohio, 9 in Florida, and 12 in Pennsylvania. Edited September 26, 2012 by fjl2nd
The Big Cat Posted September 26, 2012 Posted September 26, 2012 http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map Find me a scenario using the interactive map, and demonstrate how Mitt Romney has even the slightest chance of winning, please.
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted September 26, 2012 Posted September 26, 2012 I agree with Juror that the more the polls claim that Barry is in the lead, the worse his turnout will be, figuring they have it in the bag. And that won't happen if they thintk Myth will win?
B-Man Posted September 26, 2012 Posted September 26, 2012 http://elections.nyt...2/electoral-map Find me a scenario using the interactive map, and demonstrate how Mitt Romney has even the slightest chance of winning, please. Rather silly request by you BC. There are, of course multiple ways that Mitt Romney can win in the electoral college. Winning in the tossup states like OH, CO, NH, WI, NV, etc; and picking up a few that are within range like NM and MI and Mitt would win, but your undoubtable response is...."well thats not going to happen" ....so there, I saved us all some time on tthe "show me" nonsense. but to sit there and say there's not the slightest chance, well that silly, as I said. .
The Big Cat Posted September 26, 2012 Posted September 26, 2012 Rather silly request by you BC. There are, of course multiple ways that Mitt Romney can win in the electoral college. Winning in the tossup states like OH, CO, NH, WI, NV, etc; and picking up a few that are within range like NM and MI and Mitt would win, but your undoubtable response is...."well thats not going to happen" ....so there, I saved us all some time on tthe "show me" nonsense. but to sit there and say there's not the slightest chance, well that silly, as I said.
1billsfan Posted September 26, 2012 Posted September 26, 2012 http://elections.nyt...2/electoral-map Find me a scenario using the interactive map, and demonstrate how Mitt Romney has even the slightest chance of winning, please. This is the scenario, Romney's going to win all nine of those toss up states. It's that simple.
Recommended Posts