IDBillzFan Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 If he loses Florida, it is over. Seriously. Lights out...Obama wins in a landslide. Emote much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Like Rasmussen isn't biased in any way? Have they ever reported Romney behind? http://en.wikipedia....smussen_Reports Criticism - Nate Silver After the 2010 midterm elections, Silver concluded that Rasmussen's polls were the least accurate of the major pollsters in 2010, having an average error of 5.8 points and a pro-Republican bias of 3.9 points according to Silver's model. He singled out as an example the Hawaii Senate race, in which Rasmussen, in a poll completed three weeks before the election, showed incumbent Daniel Inouye only 13 points ahead, whereas in actuality he won by a 53% margin – a difference of 40 points from Rasmussen's poll, or "the largest error ever recorded in a general election in FiveThirtyEight’s database, which includes all polls conducted since 1998 Salon, DailyKos, media matters http://mediamatters....eadlines/186270 A June 2010 Washington Post article quoted "John Zogby, the pollster whose publicity-seeking business model is considered a forebear of Rasmussen's," stating: "[Rasmussen] has got a conservative constituency, he has Fox News and the Washington Times and Drudge. ... The conservative result is the one that is going to get a huge level of coverage." Rasmussen, as indicated by his multimedia page, is a frequent guest on Fox News. He is scheduled to once again speak on a cruise to benefit conservative National Review following the November elections. http://news.yahoo.co...--election.html WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are feeling markedly better about the country's future and about Barack Obama's job performance, but the president's re-election race against Republican Mitt Romney remains a neck-and-neck proposition as Election Day creeps ever closer, according to a new Associated Press-GfK poll. Buoyed by good mojo coming out of last month's national political conventions, Obama's approval rating is back above 50 percent for the first time since May, and the share of Americans who think the country is moving in the right direction is at its highest level since just after the death of Osama bin Laden in May 2011. Romney, his campaign knocked off-stride in recent weeks, has lost his pre-convention edge on the top issue of the campaign — the economy. Thanks for linking to the Rasmussen wiki page: Elections/Presidential... "Progressive Review conducted a review of polling accuracy in the 2000 presidential primaries. The review ranked Rasmussen Research number one in accuracy." "In the 2004 presidential election, "Rasmussen...beat most of their human competitors in the battleground states, often by large margins," "Rasmussen's final polls had Obama ahead 52%-46%, which was nearly identical to Obama's final margin of 53%-46%, and made him one of the most accurate pollsters out there." As for John Adams, the RCP average is garbage in garbage out. Yes they use Rasmussen. However, the majority of polls they use in that average are insanely inaccurate because they're actively skewing the numbers towards Obama to help dampen Romney voter turnout so that their failure gets reelected. This voter sampling information is widely available. The evidence is overwhelming. To ignore the facts regarding the dishonest polls is willful blindness at this point. You can't use the 2008 model and still be taken seriously in 2012. Obama isn't nearly as popular today and voter enthusiasm for him will be a mere fraction of the crazy Obama worship of 2008. Yet they still use the same models...LOL That's why Rasmussen rules, they use the models of today's likely voting electorate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 As for John Adams, the RCP average is garbage in garbage out. Yes they use Rasmussen. However, the majority of polls they use in that average are insanely inaccurate because they're actively skewing the numbers towards Obama to help dampen Romney voter turnout so that their failure gets reelected. This voter sampling information is widely available. The evidence is overwhelming. To ignore the facts regarding the dishonest polls is willful blindness at this point. You can't use the 2008 model and still be taken seriously in 2012. Obama isn't nearly as popular today and voter enthusiasm for him will be a mere fraction of the crazy Obama worship of 2008. Yet they still use the same models...LOL That's why Rasmussen rules, they use the models of today's likely voting electorate. Rasmussen has Florida more in Obama's favor than RCP. And Romney cannot win without Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 (edited) Rasmussen has Florida more in Obama's favor than RCP. And Romney cannot win without Florida. Like Virginia, Florida truly is a swing state. So why would it be surprising that Obama is ahead by only 2 points which is within the margin of error? I have no dispute that it's neck and neck in the swing states. I have a dispute with people posting very dishonest polls which are clearly designed to tamp down Romney voter turnout. Edited September 19, 2012 by 1billsfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Like Virginia, Florida truly is a swing state. So why would it be surprising that Obama is ahead by only 2 points which is within the margin of error? I have no dispute that it's neck and neck in the swing states. I have a dispute with people posting very dishonest polls which are clearly designed to tamp down Romney voter turnout. Florida, for Romney, is THE swing state. If he loses Florida, he loses. The fact that he knows that and is not doing better there, in conservatively biased polls, should be cause for great alarm for him. Basically, in his #1 priority state, the poll that leans Republican has him losing. That's a real problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Florida, for Romney, is THE swing state. If he loses Florida, he loses. The fact that he knows that and is not doing better there, in conservatively biased polls, should be cause for great alarm for him. Basically, in his #1 priority state, the poll that leans Republican has him losing. That's a real problem. But according to RealClear, there are some polls that show Romney up in Florida, and ALL (other than the bogus NBC/WSJ poll is within the margin of error. Hardly as dire as you state, sir. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Florida, for Romney, is THE swing state. If he loses Florida, he loses. The fact that he knows that and is not doing better there, in conservatively biased polls, should be cause for great alarm for him. Basically, in his #1 priority state, the poll that leans Republican has him losing. That's a real problem. Well Obama can't lose Florida either...LOL I think with so many people out of work, lowered home values, huge senior population, undecideds breaking to the challenger, and a lowered Obama voter turnout...Romney will win Florida. The fact that's it's a tie right now is not good news for Obama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UConn James Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 And yet the R's still cling to and praise Rasmussen's poll favoring Mitt Americans are tired of the LIES both sides are telling. The age old saying Better the devil you know than the devil you don't know - It is better to deal with something bad you know than with something new you don't; the new thing might be even worse Just like Bush 2004 A phrase of the 2004 election was that "You don't switch horses midstream." The difference here in 2012 (just like in 1979) is that the horse we're riding has died in midstream. Stay on the dead horse, you drown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 (edited) Well Obama can't lose Florida either...LOL I think with so many people out of work, lowered home values, huge senior population, undecideds breaking to the challenger, and a lowered Obama voter turnout...Romney will win Florida. The fact that's it's a tie right now is not good news for Obama. Neophyte. Obama can easily lose Florida and still win. Obama has several paths to victory in the Electoral College--look at the map right now. Obama is at 250 and Florida is in the undecided column...he needs just 20 more votes. (No, I don't put absolute faith in RCP, but it's pretty damningly bad for Romney.) Romney cannot win without Florida. It's a near impossibility. That's why the fact that Romney can't take a firm hold in Florida despite it's absolute necessity is a huge concern. Romney is %&%^ed without Florida. Obama can lose in Flroida and it just takes a little more oomph in Ohio, VA, Michigan, and Wisconsin--all states he will probably win anyways. I see that RCP now puts Wisconsin in the Obama camp. I bet Obama beats Romney almost by as much as he thrashed McCain in the electoral college. He's going to win this running away--the only change in the electoral college may be that Romney wins NC and Indiana. We are destined for 4 more years of divisiveness and amateur hour. Edited September 19, 2012 by John Adams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck_dodgers007 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 A phrase of the 2004 election was that "You don't switch horses midstream." The difference here in 2012 (just like in 1979) is that the horse we're riding has died in midstream. Stay on the dead horse, you drown. Obama died? How's that? Didn't clean up Bush's mess with a Conservative House weighing him down fast enough? Heck, the GOP House can't get a friggin farm bill out even in the face of a disastrous weather situation. Stop drinking so much cool aid little guy Neophyte. Obama can easily lose Florida and still win. Obama has several paths to victory in the Electoral College. Romney cannot win without Florida. It's a near impossibility. I see that RCP now puts Wisconsin in the Obama camp. I bet Obama beats Romney almost by as much as he thrashed McCain in the electoral college. He's going to win this running away--the only change in the electoral college may be that Romney wins NC and Indiana. We are destined for 4 more years of divisiveness and amateur hour. Maybe the GOP will not act so amateurish.....oh wait, never mind, that would be asking way too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Obama died? How's that? Didn't clean up Bush's mess with a Conservative House weighing him down fast enough? Heck, the GOP House can't get a friggin farm bill out even in the face of a disastrous weather situation. Stop drinking so much cool aid little guy Maybe the GOP will not act so amateurish.....oh wait, never mind, that would be asking way too much Good God, you're a tool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duck_dodgers007 Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Good God, you're a tool. It's better than what you are. You are a fake How long will it take for one of your little friends to pop in and swear you are God??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 (edited) Neophyte. Obama can easily lose Florida and still win. Obama has several paths to victory in the Electoral College--look at the map right now. Obama is at 250 and Florida is in the undecided column...he needs just 20 more votes. (No, I don't put absolute faith in RCP, but it's pretty damningly bad for Romney.) Romney cannot win without Florida. It's a near impossibility. That's why the fact that Romney can't take a firm hold in Florida despite it's absolute necessity is a huge concern. Romney is %&%^ed without Florida. Obama can lose in Flroida and it just takes a little more oomph in Ohio, VA, Michigan, and Wisconsin--all states he will probably win anyways. I see that RCP now puts Wisconsin in the Obama camp. I bet Obama beats Romney almost by as much as he thrashed McCain in the electoral college. He's going to win this running away--the only change in the electoral college may be that Romney wins NC and Indiana. We are destined for 4 more years of divisiveness and amateur hour. Obama is the one in trouble... http://www.breitbart...-over-democrats "Yesterday, CBS/NYT released its latest Quinnipiac poll of Colorado, Virginia and Wisconsin. With the exception of CO, the polls had heavy Democrat skews, so the head-to-head match-ups aren't particularly informative. What was telling though was the differences in enthusiasm between the two parties. " This is what will put Romney over the top in those close swing states like OH, VA, and FL. I get the feeling that this will end up being a landslide for Romney with him also getting WI. Check out this liberal leaning poll which recently had NJ within 7 points... http://www.quinnipia...?ReleaseID=1793 I'm not saying he will win NJ, but I think Obama won't win by more than 4 points here. Those RCP polls that have him up by 14 are simple ridiculous. The RCP average is a complete joke. Edited September 19, 2012 by 1billsfan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 (edited) To all the "Polls are oversampling, Romney will win in a landslide" posters. I'll make any of the regular posters a wager: If Romney loses, you stop posting at PPP under all surnames. And if Romney wins, I will quit the board, including any of my aliases. Who's in? It's a win-win for me. If you've quit before, like Chef, you don't count. Edited September 19, 2012 by John Adams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 To all the "Polls are oversampling, Romney will win in a landslide" posters. I'll make any of the regular posters a wager: If Romney loses, you stop posting at PPP under all surnames. And if Romney wins, I will quit the board, including any of my aliases. Who's in? It's a win-win for me. If you've quit before, like Chef, you don't count. Can you make a wager where BF4E and DIN/Duck/etc quit instead? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 . Oh, did I mention it's NSFW? Well, it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meazza Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 . Oh, did I mention it's NSFW? Well, it is. Man that's funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted September 19, 2012 Share Posted September 19, 2012 Man that's funny I thought so too, and it is what PPP would look like if we had a session at Nick Tahou's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 . Oh, did I mention it's NSFW? Well, it is. "I'm gonna leave..." "I don't give a !@#$!" Yep, that's us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted September 20, 2012 Share Posted September 20, 2012 (edited) Can you make a wager where BF4E and DIN/Duck/etc quit instead? If we could get people to commit to each prediction, I'd be all for it. I might even predict a Romney win to guarantee my departure. Edited September 20, 2012 by John Adams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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