UConn James Posted August 1, 2012 Posted August 1, 2012 http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/obama-leads-romney-three-battleground-states-poll-shows-103942709.html Again, one poll. On the first day of August. Not to mention that the Q NYT & CBS polling have been way off so as not to be believable. Q had Romney at 38 in one last month as even the overt-Democrat polling had him in the mid-and upper-40s. I don't expect it to get better when they join forces like this; to put it in antenna-speak, instead of decreasing, the signal/noise ratio just amplifies. When the debates roll around is when the all-important undecideds start to pour their concrete.
fjl2nd Posted August 1, 2012 Posted August 1, 2012 Add it up: The prediction models look dismal for Obama. Can he still win? Outlook not so good. This article blows. Run the simulation on 270toWin or look at 538's model. Obama wins fairly easily. The swing state polls out this morning also look very bad for Romney.
Doc Posted August 1, 2012 Posted August 1, 2012 (edited) This article blows. Run the simulation on 270toWin or look at 538's model. Obama wins fairly easily. The swing state polls out this morning also look very bad for Romney. Numbers are numbers. What they mean at this point is anyone's guess. But you can't pooh-pooh one set and then tout another. The ultimate decider will be the economy. And the economy won't be improving anytime soon. That's bad news for Barry. Edited August 1, 2012 by Doc
Park Posted August 1, 2012 Posted August 1, 2012 This article blows. Run the simulation on 270toWin or look at 538's model. Obama wins fairly easily. The swing state polls out this morning also look very bad for Romney. Those "swing states" don't even include Virginia and North Carolina which Obama actually has in play. That is amazing! I saw an article on NC and that state is more blue than even Indiana and Obama is trying real hard to win there, I guess that's why the convention is there. 8% unemployment and Romney is still losing, wow!
WorldTraveller Posted August 1, 2012 Posted August 1, 2012 (edited) Well, 538's model comes from a left wing hack, so I wouldn't put too much stock into that. However, The Quinnipiac poll wasn't encouraging for Romney. Having said that, there were two polls just released from Florida before the Quinnipiac poll that showed it a 1 point race, So the Quinnipiac Florida Poll most likely is an outlier. The Ohio one is another story, polling has been showing consistently about 2-6 point lead for Obama, and without Ohio, Romney loses. Edited August 1, 2012 by WorldTraveller
DC Tom Posted August 1, 2012 Posted August 1, 2012 Numbers are numbers. What they mean at this point is anyone's guess. But you can't pooh-pooh one set and then tout another. The ultimate decider will be the economy. And the economy won't be improving anytime soon. That's bad news for Barry. 270toWin uses some sort of a half-assed Monte Carlo simulation that, while not perfect, is better than most individual polls. I wouldn't pooh-pooh it quite as readily.
WorldTraveller Posted August 1, 2012 Posted August 1, 2012 I just looked at the internals of the polling data, and here you go: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/08/01/us/politics/01quinnipiac-new-york-times-cbs-poll.html Florida: Democrats: 36 Republican: 27 Ohio: Democrats: 35 Republican: 27 Out of Independents: Florida: Lean Republicans: 39 Lean D: 38 Ohio: Lean R: 37 Lean D: 38 2010 Voter Registration figures show Ohio with R +1 In this poll it gives D + 8 2010 Voter Registration figures show D + 5 This poll Gives D + 9 And when you consider that polling has consistently showed that the energy is with the R's, there is only one logical conclusion: Oversampling of D's This poll is bogus
WorldTraveller Posted August 1, 2012 Posted August 1, 2012 (edited) Looks like I wasn't the only one to pick up on the absurdity of this poll, except in this article, it uses a different metric that comes to the same conclusion that I did: A worthless new Quinnipiac poll gives Obama a big edge in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. The survey shows Obama up 6 in Ohio and Florida and 11 in Pennsylvania. These are all bigger margins than Obama received when he won all three states in 2008 -- Florida (2.8%), Ohio (4.7%). Pennsylvania(10%). It seems unlikely that Obama would be doing better in these states than he did 4 years ago. If you look at page 9 of the detailed results provided by the pollster (now linked to the New York Times and CBS for these state polls), you get the answer for the odd results: Those surveyed revealed who they voted for in 2008. Here are the results by state (Page 9): Florida: Obama 53%, McCain 40% Ohio: Obama 53%, McCain 38% Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, McCain 40%. In other words, the bias towards Obama voters is 10% in Florida and Ohio, and 4% in Pennsylvania, compared to how people actually voted in these states in 2008. These results are as valuable as the media that sponsored them. It is a shame that Quinnipiac, which was once respected, has thrown in with the propagandists. Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/08/propaganda_poll_shows_obama_ahead.html#ixzz22JjxAuyz Edited August 1, 2012 by WorldTraveller
Rob's House Posted August 1, 2012 Posted August 1, 2012 These results are as valuable as the media that sponsored them. It is a shame that Quinnipiac, which was once respected, has thrown in with the propagandists. Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2012/08/propaganda_poll_shows_obama_ahead.html#ixzz22JjxAuyz What's really sad is that these polls effectively influence opinion. It seems silly to choose your candidate based on a poll but a lot of people do. We, as a race, give ourselves way too much credit for rational thought. I read a book called Influence that helped to make sense of this. Not that I see it happening, but I wonder how the left would feel about the electoral college if Romney were to win a clear majority & still lose. Somehow I think their principled stance would evolve.
Gary M Posted August 1, 2012 Posted August 1, 2012 What's really sad is that these polls effectively influence opinion. I think this shows how much trouble O is in and he knows it. http://redalertpolitics.com/2012/07/31/obama-begs-supporters-for-money-in-new-campaign-video/
IDBillzFan Posted August 1, 2012 Posted August 1, 2012 I think this shows how much trouble O is in and he knows it. http://redalertpolitics.com/2012/07/31/obama-begs-supporters-for-money-in-new-campaign-video/ I had no idea our president was a southpaw.
John Adams Posted August 1, 2012 Posted August 1, 2012 I had no idea our president was a southpaw. Lots have been. Clinton, Father Bush, Reagan (teachers made him switch), Truman, Ford.
erynthered Posted August 1, 2012 Posted August 1, 2012 I had no idea our president was a southpaw. Lefty's James A. Garfield Herbert Hoover Harry S. Truman Gerald Ford Ronald Reagan George H.W. Bush Bill Clinton Barack Obama
IDBillzFan Posted August 1, 2012 Posted August 1, 2012 Lots have been. Clinton, Father Bush, Reagan (teachers made him switch), Truman, Ford. Yeah, I didn't think it was unusual. It's just something I never noticed before, which is odd because he spends so much time pointing his finger in blame that I'd have thought it would be more obvious to me.
DC Tom Posted August 1, 2012 Posted August 1, 2012 Yeah, I didn't think it was unusual. It's just something I never noticed before, which is odd because he spends so much time pointing his finger in blame that I'd have thought it would be more obvious to me. He points more often with his right. Probably because far more people are right-handed than left-, so making visible gestures with his right hand makes people feel more comfortable with him. Pandering to the voters by pretending to be right handed. The phony.
B-Man Posted August 2, 2012 Posted August 2, 2012 (edited) What's really sad is that these polls effectively influence opinion. It seems silly to choose your candidate based on a poll but a lot of people do. We, as a race, give ourselves way too much credit for rational thought. I read a book called Influence that helped to make sense of this. Not that I see it happening, but I wonder how the left would feel about the electoral college if Romney were to win a clear majority & still lose. Somehow I think their principled stance would evolve. As I stressed two months ago, Today's media polls are NOT done to report information, they are done to influence and create an outcome. Edited August 2, 2012 by B-Man
Park Posted August 2, 2012 Posted August 2, 2012 That foreign policy trip sure seems to have affected voters...Romney looked like a fool...Pew has Obama by 10 points here: http://www.people-press.org/files/2012/08/8-2-12-Topline-for-release.pdf
IDBillzFan Posted August 2, 2012 Posted August 2, 2012 That foreign policy trip sure seems to have affected voters...Romney looked like a fool...Pew has Obama by 10 points here: http://www.people-press.org/files/2012/08/8-2-12-Topline-for-release.pdf +13 Democrats...registered voters...the poll was widely and evenly dismissed by both parties within an hour of being released. But hey...if it makes you happy.
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