Romney opens 5 point lead over Obama

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I know you guys will probably rip me for this comment but it's just an opinion.

 

I cannot picture Mitt Romney as President of the United States.

 

Sometimes, I feel like you can just look at the candidates and just tell who the people will vote for.

 

You didn't really think that. Somebody else did

[TakeYouToTasker]

I don't know how else to tell you, you have a choice to stay with the existing program as is or go to the voucher/premium support plan. By the sounds of it, you weren't aware of that choice. You keep bringing up the voucher as the only choice, that's simply not the case. I would suggest you google up Paul Ryan's path to prosperity site there you can learn a little more about it. I'm glad we are having this discussion, so other people who by chance are reading this can actually learn the facts about the plan. 1) those over 55 not affected at all. 2) those under 55 can stay in the existing Medicare system OR go to the voucher/premium support plan.

mea culpa

[Dorkington]

I'm a big fan of Real Clear Politics, in terms of polls:

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/

 

They aggregate and weight polls for their results, I find them to be pretty unbiased.

[Jauronimo]

I know you guys will probably rip me for this comment but it's just an opinion.

 

I cannot picture Mitt Romney as President of the United States.

 

Sometimes, I feel like you can just look at the candidates and just tell who the people will vote for.

Its pretty obvious that those voting for Obama certainly aren't basing their opinions on anything logical, so your rationale is no more idiotic than any other reason for voting Obama.

[IDBillzFan]

I'm a big fan of Real Clear Politics, in terms of polls:

 

http://www.realclear....com/elections/

 

They aggregate and weight polls for their results, I find them to be pretty unbiased.

 

RCP is generally a good indicator, but it's still important to segregate polls of "registered voters" relative to "likely voters." Suffolk University recently released a survey stating that 40% of registered voters plan to sit out this election, and of that number 40% say they'd vote for Obama and 20% for Romney. In other words, being ahead in registered voters means nothing if 40% of the registered voters who said they'd vote for you don't plan to actually vote.

[WorldTraveller]

<p>

mea culpa

No problem bud

 

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I'm a big fan of Real Clear Politics, in terms of polls:

 

http://www.realclear....com/elections/

 

They aggregate and weight polls for their results, I find them to be pretty unbiased.

LV polls are the better indicators, and if you go by the LV's it is virtually dead locked.

[meazza]

<p>

No problem bud

 

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LV polls are the better indicators, and if you go by the LV's it is virtually dead locked.

 

Why is everyone targeting me?

[/dev/null]

Why is everyone targeting me?

Cuz you're a Canadian

[meazza]

Cuz you're a Canadian

 

The persecution must end.

[WorldTraveller]

Holy ****!

 

a PPP poll released today has Romney up 1 in Wisconsin. http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/244557-ryan-boosts-romney-to-a-lead-in-wisconsin Not a huge surprise, but there is a Democratic polling outfit that has Romney up 4.

 

If Michigan and Wisconsin go to Romney, the race is over.

 

http://www.myfoxdetr...-ahead-of-obama

 

In what will be a significant blow to Democratic campaign efforts, native son Mitt Romney has climbed into the lead in Michigan's Presidential contest. The naming of Wisconsin Congressman Paul Ryan has delivered a targeted affect on the Michigan and Midwest campaign dynamics. We ballot tested the Presidential candidates and we also tested the following two areas of initial campaign impact and awareness:

 

Congressman Ryan's impact on voters' decision to vote for Mitt Romney.

Congressman Ryan's controversial 2012 fiscal budget plan and voters support or opposition to the plan.

 

It is our conclusion that the results to these questions will help initially either validate Ryan's selection or provide messaging for Democrats that Ryan is not acceptable to the voters. As our data outlines, currently Romney and Ryan are received positively enough to help vault Romney into the lead. Our aggregate findings for this section are as follows:

 

State-wide Aggregate Results (Weighted to projected age, gender & ethnicity of electorate, percentages do not all equal 100%) – 1733 Respondents MOE +/- 2.35%

 

Question 1:

 

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you more likely to vote for in the election??

 

(Barack Obama): 43.88%

 

(Mitt Romney): 47.68%

 

(Another candidate): 3.96%

 

(Undecided): 4.01%

Edited August 21, 2012 by WorldTraveller

[/dev/null]

If Michigan and Wisconsin go to Romney, the race is over.

 

Both are solid blue states. If either goes for Romney it will signal an easy Republican win. If both go for Romney it will signal a landslide.

 

But neither will go for Romney

[WorldTraveller]

I think Wisconsin stands a good chance at going Red.

 

They almost went red for Bush twice, they elected Walker, ousted liberal stalwart Feingold and replaced him with a tea party senator, they elected a state legislature that is republicans and they ousted a couple house democrats in 2010, not to mention the huge re election of Walker.

 

This state is in play and the energy is behind the conservatives. If I had to pick a side, I would say as of right now, it goes to the R column.

 

Michigan I would say will most likely will go to the D column, but it is tightening, and this poll was of over 1300 LV , and it shows a nice margin for Romney.

 

Without a doubt, the momentum is on their side and that will most likely only grow through the convention.

 

Romney is looking good right now, specially with the money advantage they will have.

[UConn James]

I think Wisconsin stands a good chance at going Red.

 

They almost went red for Bush twice, they elected Walker, ousted liberal stalwart Feingold and replaced him with a tea party senator, they elected a state legislature that is republicans and they ousted a couple house democrats in 2010, not to mention the huge re election of Walker.

 

This state is in play and the energy is behind the conservatives. If I had to pick a side, I would say as of right now, it goes to the R column.

 

Michigan I would say will most likely will go to the D column, but it is tightening, and this poll was of over 1300 LV , and it shows a nice margin for Romney.

 

Without a doubt, the momentum is on their side and that will most likely only grow through the convention.

 

Romney is looking good right now, specially with the money advantage they will have.

 

As for Wisconsin, we all know about Walker, Tommy Thompson is up in Senate polls by 11 points over the incumbent Kohl.... You know, I don't think it's so far-fetched given these that this will cross into the President voting column as well. Nevertheless, Obama has had to spend resources there and it's still a toss-up. Obama has also spent TWICE the amount Romney has nationwide. (And not unlike his governing style, Obama's campaign has spent more than it took in for the past two-three months.) There's all the potential for this early shoring up to burst, especially as the economy predictably goes from bad to worse.

 

Don't underestimate the news the other week that we've lost even more in the auto industry government takeover and we're now at -$25B. If you think this didn't register in Michigan, you're nuts.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

NBC/WSJ Poll: Obama Holds National Lead

 

A survey commissioned by NBC News and the Wall Street Journal, the first major national polls taken after Ryan became Romney's V.P. choice, shows President Obama with a 4-point lead nationally, 48 percent to 44 percent. A month ago NBC/WSJ showed Obama leading 49 percent to 43 percent.

 

 

Which sample poll will you believe??? I have THE answer. the one on that Tuesday in November of 2012.

[WorldTraveller]

That poll has a D + 10 sampling and it's RV. Even in 2008, which was a year where Democrats had all the enthusiasm, it was D + 6-7 . No way no how they will repeat much less surpass 2008 figures. Most likely the correct sampling for LV should be somewhere around even to +2 D.

 

AP with their poll came out, and it's another RV poll, couldn't find the internals but has Obama up +1. Interestingly enough had Romney up +11 with independents. If Romney gets anywhere near +10 with independents and with the energy behind Conservatives, he wins, period.

 

Also, there was a Nevada poll that came out today that has Obama up 47-45.

 

The race in the battlegrounds have all tightened considerably since the selection of Ryan.

 

In regards to Akin, he is a risk for conservatives. For the people who are marginal voters, in the sense that they may or may not vote and that don't really pay attention to the issues, this sort of distraction works in favor for the president, specially with women. The development of Akin will pass over, but could have a negative residual effect not just in Missouri, which I would now consider Missouri as a toss up state, but across the country.

[Taro T]

That poll has a D + 10 sampling and it's RV. Even in 2008, which was a year where Democrats had all the enthusiasm, it was D + 6-7 . No way no how they will repeat much less surpass 2008 figures. Most likely the correct sampling for LV should be somewhere around even to +2 D.

 

AP with their poll came out, and it's another RV poll, couldn't find the internals but has Obama up +1. Interestingly enough had Romney up +11 with independents. If Romney gets anywhere near +10 with independents and with the energy behind Conservatives, he wins, period.

 

Also, there was a Nevada poll that came out today that has Obama up 47-45.

 

The race in the battlegrounds have all tightened considerably since the selection of Ryan.

 

In regards to Akin, he is a risk for conservatives. For the people who are marginal voters, in the sense that they may or may not vote and that don't really pay attention to the issues, this sort of distraction works in favor for the president, specially with women. The development of Akin will pass over, but could have a negative residual effect not just in Missouri, which I would now consider Missouri as a toss up state, but across the country.

It'll be interesting how Romney and Ryan deal with the 'Akin issue.' This is the 1st item since Ryan was selected for VP that seems to have a chance to resonate for the incumbant.

 

I fully expect Axelrod and crew to go all in on trying to make Romney all about Akin. If Romney can sidestep this one and have it go away by the convention, he's got a real good chance of winning. I'm not sure that he can make this one go away well enough.

[IDBillzFan]

AP with their poll came out, and it's another RV poll, couldn't find the internals but has Obama up +1.

 

I read somewhere this morning the AP poll had a D +6 sampling.

 

In regards to Akin, he is a risk for conservatives. For the people who are marginal voters, in the sense that they may or may not vote and that don't really pay attention to the issues, this sort of distraction works in favor for the president, specially with women. The development of Akin will pass over, but could have a negative residual effect not just in Missouri, which I would now consider Missouri as a toss up state, but across the country.

 

More to the point, they need that Senate seat to get control of the Senate (to repeal Obamacare), which is why the entire GOP establishment is taking shifts putting horses heads under Akin's bedsheets every night.

[WorldTraveller]

I fully expect Axelrod and crew to go all in on trying to make Romney all about Akin. If Romney can sidestep this one and have it go away by the convention, he's got a real good chance of winning. I'm not sure that he can make this one go away well enough.

It's gonna get ugly, they are going to use incendiary terms like rape, incest and "akin" and try to tie them to Romney and Ryan. You will have a complicit media now that will attempt to constantly make this an issue, despite the fact that the GOP plank has always been pro-life no matter the circumstance. It isn't as if that this is a new position, the only thing that has changed, is the response from the left. As I've mentioned before I'm pro choice. But I understand the views from social conservatives, that they believe that human life should be protected. They don't want their tax dollars contributing to the termination of an unborn child. I also understand that if someone was raped, that they would want to have an abortion, hell I respect their decision if they want an abortion just because they don't want to have a child. That's their choice.Both sides have a point on the issue, the only thing that has changed is the lefts intense opposition to those who have pro life stances for all circumstances.

[Taro T]

It's gonna get ugly, they are going to use incendiary terms like rape, incest and "akin" and try to tie them to Romney and Ryan. You will have a complicit media now that will attempt to constantly make this an issue, despite the fact that the GOP plank has always been pro-life no matter the circumstance. It isn't as if that this is a new position, the only thing that has changed, is the response from the left. As I've mentioned before I'm pro choice. But I understand the views from social conservatives, that they believe that human life should be protected. They don't want their tax dollars contributing to the termination of an unborn child. I also understand that if someone was raped, that they would want to have an abortion, hell I respect their decision if they want an abortion just because they don't want to have a child. That's their choice.Both sides have a point on the issue, the only thing that has changed is the lefts intense opposition to those who have pro life stances for all circumstances.

I can see the D's all out attack on Akin swaying some independents. I don't know that they'll sway them towards President Obama, but it could sway some to stay home or 'vote their conscience' for a 3rd party; either of which is almost as good to Axelrod as getting them to pull the lever for the President.

 

I could also see the all out attack turning off some Catholics. (Probably not as many as the independents that will be swayed the other way. And regardless, the President can't run ON the economy, so his crew has to find something to carry the day.) I never would have expected even 2 years ago that the D's would be telling Catholics to 'get to the back of the bus' but it does seem that's the way they're headed.

 

Short term, I see Akin as being a big boost to the D's; it'll be interesting to see Romney's reaction and whether the D's overplay their hand. If he's not agile and the D's don't overplay it, I can see this being big for them. If either he's agile or this gives the DWS crowd significant airtime, I can see it not moving the needle when all is said and done.

 

If the R's could get off their '!@#$ all immigrants' policy (I know that isn't where they're at, but it often comes across that way) they actually could find themselves being the predominant home for Hispanics, much like African Americans in general are firmly in the D's tent.

[WorldTraveller]

An ABC News/Washington Post poll released early Wednesday found that 50 percent of senior citizens 65 years and older have a favorable view of Paul Ryan, the GOP vice presidential pick, while 35 percent hold an unfavorable view. Fifteen percent, the poll found, don't have an opinion.

 

Democrats had expected Rep. Ryan (R-Wis.) to be especially unpopular with older Americans because of his budget proposal, which shifts Medicare into a subsidized private insurance model system for those currently under the age of 55. President Obama's campaign has hit Ryan hard for his Medicare plans, saying they would raise healthcare costs for seniors.

 

-

 

 

That's good news for the campaign.