Romney opens 5 point lead over Obama

[Rob's House]

I'm not sure. I think those who fervently defend either the Red People or the Blue People are just as bad, because they blindly believe that the opposing color is the problem, while at the same time refusing to realize that the guy the Red People march out and the guy the Blue People march out are both actually Purple People.

I'll have to mull this one over. It kind of puts a wrinkle in my theory.

[Oxrock]

 

I'll have to mull this one over. It kind of puts a wrinkle in my theory.

Don't over analys.

 

[Nanker]

I'm not sure. I think those who fervently defend either the Red People or the Blue People are just as bad, because they blindly believe that the opposing color is the problem, while at the same time refusing to realize that the guy the Red People march out and the guy the Blue People march out are both actually Purple People.

 

Make no mistake. Mitt is a moderate who - like Ryan - has shown an ability to work in partnership with others across the isle. The other two are not moderates. They're not purple. They're indigo. They've proven time and again an unwillingness to work with others who espouse different philosophical approaches to issues than they have. They are the problem. Remove them and let men in big boy pants get to work to breaking the logjam that this economy is currently saddled with. The incumbents haven't a clue on how to fix things because they don't understand business. They're as business savvy as a clam, and in the heat of the times, they're smelling like one left out on a sidewalk.

[OCinBuffalo]

Make no mistake. Mitt is a moderate who - like Ryan - has shown an ability to work in partnership with others across the isle. The other two are not moderates. They're not purple. They're indigo. They've proven time and again an unwillingness to work with others who espouse different philosophical approaches to issues than they have. They are the problem. Remove them and let men in big boy pants get to work to breaking the logjam that this economy is currently saddled with. The incumbents haven't a clue on how to fix things because they don't understand business. They're as business savvy as a clam, and in the heat of the times, they're smelling like one left out on a sidewalk.

This is exactly right.

 

Another way to say it:

 

Mitt Romney cares about solving the problem, getting results, and to be seen by all others as getting results

 

exactly as much as

 

Barack Obama cares about pushing the ideology, results aren't important as changing the structure, and therefore he is not, truly, the President of all.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Maybe because they use LV, and btw Gallup has Romney up by 2 as well.

Sorry, did I say different. I beleive I said Rasmussen (when I look) normally has Republicans with the higher approval ratings than the others.

[WorldTraveller]

Two more interesting points of data:

 

-

 

A new report on voter registration trends finds that Democratic voter registration is down by more than 800,000 since 2008 in 8 key battleground states.

 

GOP registration has also declined – but by only 79,000, a tenth of the Democrats’ losses.

 

Meanwhile, registered independents are on the rise, increasing their numbers in those states by nearly half-a-million.

 

http://www.politico.com/blogs/charlie-mahtesian/2012/08/dem-registration-down-in-key-states-132150.html

 

-

 

Considering that polling has been showing a tight race and that the energy is more with conservatives, when you look at the voter registrations, GOP has been making significant gains over the past 4 years. Iowa for instance had 100,000 D advantage for 2008, as of right now its 20,000 advantage R. That's a pretty stark turnaround.

 

 

Also this is another interesting data point:

 

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For the first time since he began running for president, Republican Mitt Romney has the support of over 40 percent of America's youth vote, a troubling sign for President Obama who built his 2008 victory with the overwhelming support of younger, idealistic voters.

 

Pollster John Zogby of JZ Analytics told Secrets Tuesday that Romney received 41 percent in his weekend poll of 1,117 likely voters, for the first time crossing the 40 percent mark. What's more, he said that Romney is the only Republican of those who competed in the primaries to score so high among 18-29 year olds.

 

"This is the first time I am seeing Romney's numbers this high among 18-29 year olds," said Zogby. "This could be trouble for Obama who needs every young voter he can get."

 

Zogby helped Secrets dig deeper into his weekend poll, which we reported on earlier. The poll had Romney and Obama tied at 46 percent.

 

-

 

http://washingtonexaminer.com/a-romney-first-over-40-of-youth-vote-back-him/article/2504893#.UCuqkKD329s

[B-Man]

 

 

Also this is another interesting data point:-

 

For the first time since he began running for president, Republican Mitt Romney has the support of over 40 percent of America's youth vote, a troubling sign for President Obama who built his 2008 victory with the overwhelming support of younger, idealistic voters.

 

Pollster John Zogby of JZ Analytics told Secrets Tuesday that Romney received 41 percent in his weekend poll of 1,117 likely voters, for the first time crossing the 40 percent mark. What's more, he said that Romney is the only Republican of those who competed in the primaries to score so high among 18-29 year olds.

 

"This is the first time I am seeing Romney's numbers this high among 18-29 year olds," said Zogby. "This could be trouble for Obama who needs every young voter he can get."

 

 

They want jobs.....................and cannot afford to wait four more years to get one.

 

 

especially from this guy;

 

 

PRIORITIES: Mother Jones: Obama Has Attended, On Average, One Fundraiser Every 60 Hours While Running for Reelection.

 

.

[Oxrock]

They want jobs.....................and cannot afford to wait four more years to get one.

 

 

especially from this guy;

 

 

PRIORITIES: Mother Jones: Obama Has Attended, On Average, One Fundraiser Every 60 Hours While Running for Reelection.

 

.

They want to be successful in business and life like Mitt Romney.

[OCinBuffalo]

Sorry, did I say different. I beleive I said Rasmussen (when I look) normally has Republicans with the higher approval ratings than the others.

Yeah...because they use Likely Voters(LV), not Adults = "whoever I can find on the street/at the mall/answers their home phone...at 10 o'clock in the morning on a weekday".

 

They also don't use samples that include 38% registered Republican voters, 46% registered Democrat voters.....and try to tell us that...shockingly...Obama is up by 6 points. But...but...but...they are all Likely Voters...

 

And then they claim that Rasmussen is biased?

[IDBillzFan]

Zogby helped Secrets dig deeper into his weekend poll, which we reported on earlier. The poll had Romney and Obama tied at 46 percent.

 

If I were Romney/Ryan, I'd have someone pounding the Zogby term "CENGA - College Educated, Not Going Anyware." What a brutal acronym to hang out there, especially because acronyms like that have a tendency to stick.

[1billsfan]

Yeah...because they use Likely Voters(LV), not Adults = "whoever I can find on the street/at the mall/answers their home phone...at 10 o'clock in the morning on a weekday".

 

They also don't use samples that include 38% registered Republican voters, 46% registered Democrat voters.....and try to tell us that...shockingly...Obama is up by 6 points. But...but...but...they are all Likely Voters...

 

And then they claim that Rasmussen is biased?

 

 

Very true. I get the feeling that Romney has a solid 3 point lead over Obama across the country which will probably grow to 6-10 points by election day. Nothing scientific, just a feeling judging by rasmussen, figuring in the turnout discrepancy and also figuring in the white reagan dems who are lying to the pollsters because of the fear of being seen as a racist. The MSM did such a number on the people against Obama there is no doubt a small but significant number of people lying to pollsters this time around.

[B-Man]

Heh...............Pushing "Truth"

 

 

[fjl2nd]

Very true. I get the feeling that Romney has a solid 3 point lead over Obama across the country which will probably grow to 6-10 points by election day. Nothing scientific, just a feeling judging by rasmussen, figuring in the turnout discrepancy and also figuring in the white reagan dems who are lying to the pollsters because of the fear of being seen as a racist. The MSM did such a number on the people against Obama there is no doubt a small but significant number of people lying to pollsters this time around.

 

When you take an average of all the polling, Rasmussen still leans right. It's not a bias really, but it's worth noting. 6-10 point lead?? Are you nuts? Romney will be lucky to get to 50%.

 

Sidenote: Why would someone lie over the phone about their vote??

[OCinBuffalo]

The only thing that is "worth noting" is the fact that Rasmussen uses proper statistial methodology, and others do not.

 

As I've said....the only way I will believe that Romney loses Florida, for example, is if you show me a non-Rassmussen poll that has Obama up by 10 pts.

 

If the poll says 9 points..it's a tie. Here's how:

2-3 pts of undecideds will move to Romney. That's because that's what they always do, in every election since 1950, except 1. Bush in 2004, but that was due to the war. So, any poll that doesn't show more than 4 pts of undecideds or has more than 40% RV Democrats, like we keep seeing? Auto-adjust it 2-3 pts for undecideds moving to Romney.

6 pts of Democrat bias in sample as I said above. It's ridiculous. You put more than 45% Democrats into a poll and wonder what you will get?

 

3+6=9. Thus show me a poll that has Obama up by 10...or doesn't have these flaws...and I will listen. Until then...yeah...a poll that shows a tie...may actually be showing us a 6 point Romney victory. The polls are flawed, while Rassmusen has a record since 2000 of being the most accurate compared to the final vote.

 

If he says Obama down by 2...then he's down by 2. Deal with it.

 

For my own part...Obama being down by 2, at this point in the election? Yeah...a 10 point loss is not likely...but a 6 point loss is more than possible.

[WorldTraveller]

New Polling data:

 

 

 

 

In the immediate aftermath of Mitt Romney’s selection of Paul Ryan as his running mate, the GOP ticket has drawn even with the Democratic ticket.

Today, Romney and Ryan lead the Obama-Biden ticket by a point (47% to 46%), an improvement from July when President Obama led Romney by

2 points, 47% to 45%.

 

The Romney-Ryan ticket is fueled by an 11-point advantage among independents. This represents an increase from July, when Romney held a 5-point margin over Obama among that key group. In our Purple Predictor states, Ryan’s addition to the ticket has had a mixed impact on the race.

 

Romney has seen the largest gain in Ohio, a state we have seen bounce between the campaigns over the last few months. Today, the GOP ticket

leads by 2 points (46% to 44%), compared to July when President Obama led the state 48% to 45%.

 

Romney also gained ground in Virginia — today, he and Paul Ryan hold a 3-point advantage in the race (48% to 45%), while Romney trailed by 2 points in July. However, President Obama has seen improvements in Colorado and Florida. In Colorado, the Obama-Biden ticket now leads 49% to 46%, an increase from a 1-point lead in July. In Florida, the Democratic ticket trails by just 1 point (48% to 47%), compared to a 3 point deficit in Jul y.

 

Taken as a whole, these data indicate a small bump in the immediate aftermath of the Ryan announcement. Nonetheless, it is also the first sign of positive momentum for the Romney campaign that we’ve seen in the PurplePoll in the last few months.

[truth on hold]

Mr. Romney has gained a net of one point, on average, in the eleven polls conducted wholly or partially after his announcement of Mr. Ryan, compared to the prior renditions of the same surveys in the same states. This is a below-average “bounce” for the selection of a vice presidential candidate; in past elections, the bounce has averaged in the neighborhood of 4 percentage points instead.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/15/aug-15-to-bounce-or-not-to-bounce/

[fjl2nd]

Going back to the registered voters thing. Is it really a good thing that people are dropping for the Democartic and Republican party? All that will remain would be the far left and far right. Then, they will continue to nominate polarizing figures. I know in some states, Independents can vote in primaries but in a lot, they are closed primaries.

 

Just something to think about. If people want better candidates, they're probably going to have to do it through either political party.

[WorldTraveller]

Here are other signs of troubles that aren't reflected in the RV polls:

 

Turnout in Florida’s solidly Democratic Broward County, home to Fort Lauderdale, hit rock bottom in Tuesday's primary, leading to the questions about the level of Democratic enthusiasm in November.

 

From the Miami Herald report:

 

Broward posted by far the lowest county-wide turnout on Tuesday: 10.69 percent. That's pathetic even for Broward, which has a long history of civic indifference in primary elections. In 2010, the primary turnout there was 15 percent; in 2008, 11 percent; in 2006, 12 percent.

 

The statistics, on the state Division of Elections web site, do not include provisional, overseas or military ballots, which in many cases have not yet been counted. The statewide turnout was 20.4 percent.

 

Should such a low turnout concern President Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson? Yes. Broward remains the biggest Democratic county in Florida, with more than twice as many D's (572,000) as Republicans (257,000). But, as is the norm, most of them stayed home Tuesday. If they don't show a little more enthusiasm on Nov. 6, it could be a very long night for Democrats.

[WorldTraveller]

Also, a new Franklin Marshall Poll out of PA, of RV shows Obama only up + 5 , which is Romneys best showing as of yet on this poll

 

http://www.realclear...obama-1891.htmlbtw, in that poll Romney is up + 20 over Obama with independents

Edited August 16, 2012 by WorldTraveller

[Nanker]

Which leads me to believe that Jokin' Joe will retire from politics soon and be replaced by Madam Hillary.

They've got till September 6th to make the move. Which might be coming today.