Can Fitzpatrick be an upper echelon QB?

[Amstel]

I like the fact that he's smart is tough and takes the heat for his mistakes and doesnt blame his teammates. The whole team seems to rally around him and respect him. I'm not saying that makes him close to upper echelon but its something we havent had since JK.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

QB rating takes all those into consideration, and he was not close to the top, he was 22nd. You have to look at yards per game, not just yards, use the stat correct if you are going to use it. You don't even use correct stats in the same post. You talk about a TD percentage to show how he was not the worst. You don't even use apples and apples in your defense of him, that just shows how terible Fitzpatrick is.

 

I normally don't bother responding to the troll - it only encourages him to come out from under his bridge. In case others may be confused though I'll take this.

 

Standard NFL QB rating uses 4 parameters: Completion% YPA (not YPG) TD% and Int%. This is why a QB who has only started a few games and didn't throw many passes in those games can have a nice high QB rating - it's all percentage and yards per attempt. The 4 parameters in question are spindled, folded, mutilated and multiplied.

 

The poster to whom you are replying did not talk about TD percentage but rather TDs. It's perfectly valid to look at how many TDs a QB has thrown during the season, just as it's perfectly valid to look at his total yardage. A QB who doesn't pass much but makes some throws in the redzone can have an inflated TD percentage and not achieve the # of 7 pointers one wants one's QB to hurl over the season. Christian Ponder and Tim Tebow both have higher TD percentage than Fitz - they threw 12-13 all year, that whatcha want? Not I.

 

For a QB who has played the entire season, total yards and YPG are very similar. The top 5 QB for yards are Brees, Brady, Stafford, Rodgers and Manning. The top 5 QB for YPA are Brees, Brady, Stafford, Manning, and Rodgers. Fitz was 11th in total yards, 15th in YPG because QB who did not play an entire season (and might or might not have kept up that pace all season) enter in- Palmer, Vick, Schaub etc. (Fitz is a case in point for looking at the whole season, after 5 games he would have been 6th or 7th)

 

It doesn't show "how terrible a QB is" to point out that in a significant number of stats, he is in the top 3rd. The disparity between Fitz QB rating and his good stats is all about the INTs. Get them under control and we've got something.

 

Would you recognize that MacIntosh and Red Delicious are both apples? Would you recognize an apple if you found it stuffed in your mouth? Would you mistake your foot for an apple?

 

You're going to have to refresh my memory here, because I don't recall ANY critical possessions/situations at the end of close games last year in which the playcalling was to blame.

 

eball, I can't speak for anyone else, when I personally am questioning the play calling I don't mean there were a handful of critical possessions/situations where playcalling lost us the game.

 

Rather, what concerns me about the playcalling is more a pattern - passing more than running on 3rd and 2 or 3. Getting away from the run and becoming very pass heavy at times when we were behind, but not so far behind that a nice sustained drive or two wouldn't have put us back in it (and given our D a much-needed break). In addition, our yards per time differential between run plays and pass plays was not as great as for other teams so running more didn't use that much extra time. Stuff that potentially KEPT it from being a close game.

 

There were also some occasions where time was critical if we wanted to do something, and we stuck to "methodical" rather than picking up the pace, and ran out of time at the end.

 

So no, no critical "blame the playcalling" situations. But yes, a pattern of playcalling that I found overall, SMH stuff.

Edited July 17, 2012 by Hopeful

[ganesh]

You know, that's an interesting comment. I'd say that at least during the 2nd half of last season, teams weren't scared of the Bills' offense, period. They saw a team that lost its best RB, C, LT, and didn't have a WR capable of complementing Stevie.

 

I think Fitz showed during the 1st half of the season that when healthy, and with a full complement of his starting mates on offense, he could pick apart a defense. That kind of stuff keeps defensive coordinators up at night.

 

It depends on the Running game. When Jackson was carrying the ball, the game was taken away from Fitz's hands and hence the lesser number of interceptions or bad throws. Once Jackson was hurt, Fitz tried to win games with his arm and that ended up in a disaster. The question is: Why didn't Spiller step up to replace Jackson and give the same level of comfort to the coaches so as to not put the game on Ftiz's shoulders.

 

Fitz by himself scares no one, especially with his lack of accuracy. However, when Freddy is on the field, then it will be a whole different ball game.

[John from Riverside]

I normally don't bother responding to the troll - it only encourages him to come out from under his bridge. In case others may be confused though I'll take this.

 

Standard NFL QB rating uses 4 parameters: Completion% YPA (not YPG) TD% and Int%. This is why a QB who has only started a few games and didn't throw many passes in those games can have a nice high QB rating - it's all percentage and yards per attempt. The 4 parameters in question are spindled, folded, mutilated and multiplied.

 

The poster to whom you are replying did not talk about TD percentage but rather TDs. It's perfectly valid to look at how many TDs a QB has thrown during the season, just as it's perfectly valid to look at his total yardage. A QB who doesn't pass much but makes some throws in the redzone can have an inflated TD percentage and not achieve the # of 7 pointers one wants one's QB to hurl over the season. Christian Ponder and Tim Tebow both have higher TD percentage than Fitz - they threw 12-13 all year, that whatcha want? Not I.

 

For a QB who has played the entire season, total yards and YPG are very similar. The top 5 QB for yards are Brees, Brady, Stafford, Rodgers and Manning. The top 5 QB for YPA are Brees, Brady, Stafford, Manning, and Rodgers. Fitz was 11th in total yards, 15th in YPG because QB who did not play an entire season (and might or might not have kept up that pace all season) enter in- Palmer, Vick, Schaub etc. (Fitz is a case in point for looking at the whole season, after 5 games he would have been 6th or 7th)

 

It doesn't show "how terrible a QB is" to point out that in a significant number of stats, he is in the top 3rd. The disparity between Fitz QB rating and his good stats is all about the INTs. Get them under control and we've got something.

 

Would you recognize that MacIntosh and Red Delicious are both apples? Would you recognize an apple if you found it stuffed in your mouth? Would you mistake your foot for an apple?

 

 

 

eball, I can't speak for anyone else, when I personally am questioning the play calling I don't mean there were a handful of critical possessions/situations where playcalling lost us the game.

 

Rather, what concerns me about the playcalling is more a pattern - passing more than running on 3rd and 2 or 3. Getting away from the run and becoming very pass heavy at times when we were behind, but not so far behind that a nice sustained drive or two wouldn't have put us back in it (and given our D a much-needed break). In addition, our yards per time differential between run plays and pass plays was not as great as for other teams so running more didn't use that much extra time. Stuff that potentially KEPT it from being a close game.

 

There were also some occasions where time was critical if we wanted to do something, and we stuck to "methodical" rather than picking up the pace, and ran out of time at the end.

 

So no, no critical "blame the playcalling" situations. But yes, a pattern of playcalling that I found overall, SMH stuff.

 

 

My own theory on this (and since people bashing Fitz are throwing out their bs theories I might as well throw out mine.

 

Chan Gailey did not trust his defense

 

- He knew Edwards was in over his head......the plan to make Wanny the DC was already hatched well before it happened....but Chan knew he was on a 3 year plan and Wanny asked him to be "eased into" the position to allow him to evaluate the talent before he actually took it over.

 

- Wanny takes over......and he is given a great bunch of groceries to work......take a look at what has been aquired the last 2 years and think back to Wanny's successful defenses in other places......speed everywhere.....legitamate proven pass rush EVERYWHERE......physical hard hitting secondary......etc etc. This was put into place so Chan could allow himself to be more patient on the offensive side of the ball......a reassurance that the defense WONT give up 3 touchdowns in the first 10 minutes of the game......

 

- Spiller came into his own at the end of last year.....Stevie took the steps to come back healthy......left tackle was addressed.....the quality vets of the team have all been brough back (in years past we would not have done this)

 

- All of the supporting tools have been kept in place around Fitz.....all the tools we had when we started off the year looking like a playoff team......and the defense was addressed in a big way.....for the love of CHRIST......all Fitz the same chance u would give other "good" qbs to prove he can be successful.....and by good I am not talking about the upper tier guys who have great offenses and ****ty defenses and outscore you to win....you have a "good" quarterback........

[Charles Romes]

Pure gimmickry on offense won this division a few years ago.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

The elite qb brand is the nfl's paradox. You need an elite qb to get you to the superbowl, but only qbs who took their team to the superbowl are elite..

[ChanOverChin]

All by himself, no, Fitz is probably an upper eschelon NFL QB. However, I think with the much improved Bills defense (dare I say DOMINANT defense) he certainly could be.

 

Here's why.

 

Buffalo's defense is going to be good enough to keep games close and/or allow us to stay in the lead in many games (even if only by a few points). It's going to help the offense by winning the field position battle a good portion of the time. That will allow Fitz the luxury of not taking unnecessary chances or at least taking far fewer chances than he did last year.

 

With the lead or with the game tied the Bills just need to put the ball in Jackson's hands most of the time. They can throw short safe passes. Fitz won't have to be the hero in those games.

 

I will say though that there will certainly be at least 2-3 games where Fitz will be expected to lead the Bills down the field during the final possession to score a TD or FG. How he does in those situations could determine the fate of our season.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

It depends on the Running game. When Jackson was carrying the ball, the game was taken away from Fitz's hands and hence the lesser number of interceptions or bad throws. Once Jackson was hurt, Fitz tried to win games with his arm and that ended up in a disaster. The question is: Why didn't Spiller step up to replace Jackson and give the same level of comfort to the coaches so as to not put the game on Ftiz's shoulders.

 

Fitz by himself scares no one, especially with his lack of accuracy. However, when Freddy is on the field, then it will be a whole different ball game.

 

All respect, Ganesh, this explanation simply doesn't seem to fit the facts.

First off, FJax was carrying the ball for 3 games into the losing streak. The pass attempts were on the lower side in those games. Doesn't seem to fit with the theory we lost 'cuz FJax wasout.

Second, in a number of our early wins, Fitz had as many passing attempts as in some late-season losses (30-46 attempts/game). Doesn't seem to fit with the theory we won because Jackson was carrying the ball and the game was taken away from Fitz's hands.

 

My $0.02: It's too simple to characterize Fitz as inaccurate. Sometimes he's deadly accurate.

 

I think the real factors leading to increased INTs and bad throws were 1) horrible D (we started out bad and got worse as injuries took out Merriman, Kyle Williams, etc) forcing us to play from behind with bad field position in the 2nd half. This caused Fitz to play more aggressively, trying to force balls in to coverage in order to make something happen 2) injuries to the offensive line/OL play. Fitz went from having a quick release to having too quick a release (making mistakes more likely)

[folz]

Hope you're all willing to jump back on the Fitzwagon when it circles around again...

and get used to that girlish squeal, I think we'll be hearing it a lot next year.

 

I know the 2nd half of last season has made everyone cautious/nervous, but for almost half a

season last year, Fitz held his own with the best in the league. At the time he was

top 5/top 10 in most categories. Sure he has to do it for a full season, but...

 

After 7 games played last year:

 

------------Comp.-------Att--------Comp%-----Yds----YPC------TD-----INT

 

Fitz..........155..............229..............67.68.........1,739........7.7.........14............7

 

Brady.......184..............272..............67.64.........2,361........8.5.........18............8

 

Brees.......182..............299..............60.86.........2,477........8.3.........18............8

 

If Fitz had the same number of attempts as Brady (extrapolated out) he would have had 2,070 yds, 17 TDs and 8.3 INTs.

So, his stats were very similar to Brady's, the only descrepancy being YPC which leads to the extra yards overall.

Maybe having a legit deep threat will help that. If he had as many attempts as Brees,it would be 2,278 yds, 18 TDs,

9 INTs. And don't forget that was a record setting year for Brees. Now, of course, I'm not saying Fitz is as good as these guys,

but I think the end of last season made people forget just how good Fitz was actually playing at the beginning of last season.

 

And I hate to sound like a broken record, but I just can't understand those who don't think losing your starting and

backup LT, starting C, starting RB, starting TE (for a while), and half your receiving corps didn't affect

Fitz's play. And that doesn't even take into account his cracked ribs, Stevie's groin injury, and a porous defense.

I mean at points last season, he was throwing to a QB and RB playing the WR position and guys basically signed off the

street. Honestly? None of that mattered? It's just Fitz sucked because he's always sucked. Really?

 

The guy has proven he can do it and the team is making sure he has all of the tools in order to do it consistently,

a new QB coach, another year of continuity in the system and with his receivers and O-line, better defense, better

depth. Sure the guy will never be a HOFer, but he's proven enough to me to drop the "journeyman" "career backup"

titles that so many still attach to him. I may be in the minority, but I think Fitz is gonna have a big year.

[Bufcomments]

This is the question that will determine the bills success in 2012. I'm surprised it isn't # 1.

 

We've heard nothing but good news as far as Fitz changing his mechanics and working with coach Lee. The fact that he was injured in the second half last year makes it a little easier to swallow last years collapse. But the fact is, he's still Fitz. He's a journeyman QB who is now being asked to make the playoffs and bring this team to the promised land. Can Fitz be that guy? I'm not sure...

Dont think Fitz will be a Rivers or Brady but....

 

He got the locker room and the coaching staff believing he can do it. If he cuts down on his INT's yes he can get you to the playoffs.

 

He has enough firepower on hand. But as we found out he is a streaky QB.

 

Every QB has a bad game or 2. My thing is Fitz cant go on a streak of bad games.

 

I will say this now, if Fred Jackson stays injury free all yr we make the playoffs because he is the man on offense. Fitz just has to run the show like a point guard in Basketball and we will be playing in January.

[billsrcursed]

Dont think Fitz will be a Rivers or Brady but....

 

He got the locker room and the coaching staff believing he can do it. If he cuts down on his INT's yes he can get you to the playoffs.

 

He has enough firepower on hand. But as we found out he is a streaky QB.

 

Every QB has a bad game or 2. My thing is Fitz cant go on a streak of bad games.

 

I will say this now, if Fred Jackson stays injury free all yr we make the playoffs because he is the man on offense. Fitz just has to run the show like a point guard in Basketball and we will be playing in January.

 

Ya, but which point guard?

 

I think our offense is geared more towards a "Steve Nash" type point guard, whereas Fitzy was playing more like a "Jameer Nelson" point guard.

 

Between his own injuries and those of some of our most important offensive players, I think he was forced into more of a playmaker role. If this can be avoided this upcoming year, he should be able to get us to the playoffs.

[Bufcomments]

Ya, but which point guard?

 

I think our offense is geared more towards a "Steve Nash" type point guard, whereas Fitzy was playing more like a "Jameer Nelson" point guard.

 

Between his own injuries and those of some of our most important offensive players, I think he was forced into more of a playmaker role. If this can be avoided this upcoming year, he should be able to get us to the playoffs.

In a sense he has to be Rondo or a like you said a Nash type because he has to get the ball to everybody. Stevie, Fred ,CJ, Nelson they have to get there touches so to speak.

 

Chans playcalling has alot to do with it too. I thought the Bills passed to much in the second half of the last yr. CJ should have gotten more carries.

[BRAWNDO]

All by himself, no, Fitz is probably an upper eschelon NFL QB. However, I think with the much improved Bills defense (dare I say DOMINANT defense) he certainly could be.

 

Here's why.

 

Buffalo's defense is going to be good enough to keep games close and/or allow us to stay in the lead in many games (even if only by a few points). It's going to help the offense by winning the field position battle a good portion of the time. That will allow Fitz the luxury of not taking unnecessary chances or at least taking far fewer chances than he did last year.

 

With the lead or with the game tied the Bills just need to put the ball in Jackson's hands most of the time. They can throw short safe passes. Fitz won't have to be the hero in those games.

 

I will say though that there will certainly be at least 2-3 games where Fitz will be expected to lead the Bills down the field during the final possession to score a TD or FG. How he does in those situations could determine the fate of our season.

 

This

[loserlovers]

cordy glenn is the key to the season.

 

we know fitz can play great, oakland,KC,NE etc. we know he was hurt and had a backup center, wr's, and lost jackson so we started losing.

 

Fitz was mocked his first year here, i saw great potential and always called for his number, then half the board still supported trent in fitz's second year, there was a vote on the board that proved this.(idiots) And now after his third year hes got us all asking,"can he be elite?"

 

I think if a guy goes from being made fun of to being a potential elite guy in three years, that thats pretty good. if hes just "good" all year, the defense and running game will take care of the rest.

[Dorkington]

Hope you're all willing to jump back on the Fitzwagon when it circles around again...

and get used to that girlish squeal, I think we'll be hearing it a lot next year.

 

I know the 2nd half of last season has made everyone cautious/nervous, but for almost half a

season last year, Fitz held his own with the best in the league. At the time he was

top 5/top 10 in most categories. Sure he has to do it for a full season, but...

 

After 7 games played last year:

 

------------Comp.-------Att--------Comp%-----Yds----YPC------TD-----INT

 

Fitz..........155..............229..............67.68.........1,739........7.7.........14............7

 

Brady.......184..............272..............67.64.........2,361........8.5.........18............8

 

Brees.......182..............299..............60.86.........2,477........8.3.........18............8

 

If Fitz had the same number of attempts as Brady (extrapolated out) he would have had 2,070 yds, 17 TDs and 8.3 INTs.

So, his stats were very similar to Brady's, the only descrepancy being YPC which leads to the extra yards overall.

Maybe having a legit deep threat will help that. If he had as many attempts as Brees,it would be 2,278 yds, 18 TDs,

9 INTs. And don't forget that was a record setting year for Brees. Now, of course, I'm not saying Fitz is as good as these guys,

but I think the end of last season made people forget just how good Fitz was actually playing at the beginning of last season.

 

And I hate to sound like a broken record, but I just can't understand those who don't think losing your starting and

backup LT, starting C, starting RB, starting TE (for a while), and half your receiving corps didn't affect

Fitz's play. And that doesn't even take into account his cracked ribs, Stevie's groin injury, and a porous defense.

I mean at points last season, he was throwing to a QB and RB playing the WR position and guys basically signed off the

street. Honestly? None of that mattered? It's just Fitz sucked because he's always sucked. Really?

 

The guy has proven he can do it and the team is making sure he has all of the tools in order to do it consistently,

a new QB coach, another year of continuity in the system and with his receivers and O-line, better defense, better

depth. Sure the guy will never be a HOFer, but he's proven enough to me to drop the "journeyman" "career backup"

titles that so many still attach to him. I may be in the minority, but I think Fitz is gonna have a big year.

 

[paintmyhouse]

It is hilarious and somewhat appalling at the same time that people say Fitz has proven anything. He has proven nothing at all other than he is a less than average starting QB in the NFL who has actually proven to be the leader in losing.

[eball]

It is hilarious and somewhat appalling at the same time that people say Fitz has proven anything. He has proven nothing at all other than he is a less than average starting QB in the NFL who has actually proven to be the leader in losing.

Wow, it actually took 76 posts in the thread for you to come along and drop your standard "Fitz sucks, move along" comment.

 

Looking forward to hearing from you later this season.

[Billsrhody]

That is not how you presented your arguement and you know it.....you are presenting that we went from good to average.....as in a average guy should allow your team to win. In the end you state that it all falls back on the QB.

 

The bills have decided to go with 2nd teir QB in Fitz...he isnt horrible...he isn't a pro bowler...and instead biuld the team up AROUND him.

 

 

you are just trying to bash on Fitz....which frankly is a horse that is in the glue factor already.....personally I am hoping that my theory on the defense is true and that a defense that isn't swiss cheese allows us to run the ball more.....allowing Fitz to pick his spots to take chances...look better....and shut posters like you up....but...chances are we wont make the super bowl this year so you will still be out there bitching about the QB.

 

Well first of all I'm not a Fitz basher. Is it wrong to be skeptical about a guy until he proves he can bring a team to the playoffs? I would like nothing more than to see Fitz succeed and bring this team to the super bowl... I'm just not sure he has it in him. The point I was trying to make is that I absolutely can blame this team's shortcomings on the lack of quality quarterback play. I can do that because I belive if we had Brady or Rogers or Brees we would be a playoff team every year with the way our team was constructed last year.

 

Upper echelon QBs are constantly in the playoffs because they make their teams that much better. Just because I dont put 100% of my faith behind a guy that has never been to the playoffs.. does that make me a Fitz basher?

[BuffBill]

This is the question that will determine the bills success in 2012. I'm surprised it isn't # 1.

 

We've heard nothing but good news as far as Fitz changing his mechanics and working with coach Lee. The fact that he was injured in the second half last year makes it a little easier to swallow last years collapse. But the fact is, he's still Fitz. He's a journeyman QB who is now being asked to make the playoffs and bring this team to the promised land. Can Fitz be that guy? I'm not sure...

I would love more then anything to be able to say that I thought Fitz was going to be an upper echelon quarterback, but I really can't. I think we have seen as good as we are ever going to get from Fitz last year, and that was leading the NFL in interceptions. My gut feeling is, the QB position is going to keep us from being a legitimate Super Bowl contender for quite some time, at least for as long as it take to replace Fitz, and his replacement to mature into a top level passer.

 

Hope you're all willing to jump back on the Fitzwagon when it circles around again...

and get used to that girlish squeal, I think we'll be hearing it a lot next year.

 

I know the 2nd half of last season has made everyone cautious/nervous, but for almost half a

season last year, Fitz held his own with the best in the league. At the time he was

top 5/top 10 in most categories. Sure he has to do it for a full season, but...

 

After 7 games played last year:

 

------------Comp.-------Att--------Comp%-----Yds----YPC------TD-----INT

 

Fitz..........155..............229..............67.68.........1,739........7.7.........14............7

 

Brady.......184..............272..............67.64.........2,361........8.5.........18............8

 

Brees.......182..............299..............60.86.........2,477........8.3.........18............8

 

If Fitz had the same number of attempts as Brady (extrapolated out) he would have had 2,070 yds, 17 TDs and 8.3 INTs.

So, his stats were very similar to Brady's, the only descrepancy being YPC which leads to the extra yards overall.

Maybe having a legit deep threat will help that. If he had as many attempts as Brees,it would be 2,278 yds, 18 TDs,

9 INTs. And don't forget that was a record setting year for Brees. Now, of course, I'm not saying Fitz is as good as these guys,

but I think the end of last season made people forget just how good Fitz was actually playing at the beginning of last season.

 

And I hate to sound like a broken record, but I just can't understand those who don't think losing your starting and

backup LT, starting C, starting RB, starting TE (for a while), and half your receiving corps didn't affect

Fitz's play. And that doesn't even take into account his cracked ribs, Stevie's groin injury, and a porous defense.

I mean at points last season, he was throwing to a QB and RB playing the WR position and guys basically signed off the

street. Honestly? None of that mattered? It's just Fitz sucked because he's always sucked. Really?

 

The guy has proven he can do it and the team is making sure he has all of the tools in order to do it consistently,

a new QB coach, another year of continuity in the system and with his receivers and O-line, better defense, better

depth. Sure the guy will never be a HOFer, but he's proven enough to me to drop the "journeyman" "career backup"

titles that so many still attach to him. I may be in the minority, but I think Fitz is gonna have a big year.

I like Fitz as much as anyone and hope he excels, but... do your statistical research now just listing the last 9 games like you did selectively the first 7 games last year. Looking at those stats one might wonder why he is still on the roster. Anyone can pick and choose statistics to use to prove a point, you could do that with Losman, or that matter Edwards when the Bills were the last unbeaten team in the NFL a few years back. Like I said, I like Fitz, but only using the statistics that favor your point is ridiculous.

[The Senator]

It's so refreshing to see a new topic on TSW, rather than beating all the usual dead horses

 

 

Fitz will be the NFL's top-ranked QB this season...

 

 

GO BILLSSS!!!!

 

 

"I expect to be undefeated...I expect to win every game." - Chan Gailey

 

19 and 0 baby!!!!

 

.

Edited July 17, 2012 by The Senator