Who Do You Think Will Win The Presidential Election?

[B-Man]

After spending tens of millions of dollars trying to demonize Mitt Romney over the last two months, Barack Obama and his campaign had hoped to erode any enthusiasm for the Republican nominee. According to the new CBS/NYT poll, not only have they failed, the effort may be backfiring:

 

Meantime, three and a half months before election day, Republican enthusiasm about voting this year has shot up since Mitt Romney clinched the nomination in April, from 36 percent of Republicans saying they were more enthusiastic in March to 49 percent now.

 

President Obama was helped to election in 2008 by a wave of voter enthusiasm among Democrats, however this year, Democratic enthusiasm is down a bit since March. Twenty-seven percent of Democrats said they were more enthusiastic about voting this year than they were in past elections, compared to 30 percent four months ago. And 48 percent of Democrats say their enthusiasm this year is the same as past elections, compared to 39 percent who answered the same question in March.

 

Independent voters’ enthusiasm is also up with 29 percent saying they’re more enthusiastic now from 22 percent four months ago.

 

Overall, voters aren’t as enthusiastic about this year’s election as they were in 2008. Just 33 percent of all registered voters said they were more enthusiastic this year than they were for past elections, compared to 41 percent in March 2008.

 

 

The big takeaway, though, is that 49% of Republicans and 29% of independents express increased enthusiasm for this election, while only 27% of Democrats say the same thing. If Obama’s attacks are depressing enthusiasm, it’s pretty clear whose enthusiasm he’s depressing. That was always the risk for a candidate whose main qualification for office was hope and change, and whose signature outcome has been economic stagnation.

 

.

[DC Tom]

After spending tens of millions of dollars trying to demonize Mitt Romney over the last two months, Barack Obama and his campaign had hoped to erode any enthusiasm for the Republican nominee. According to the new CBS/NYT poll, not only have they failed, the effort may be backfiring:

 

 

 

 

The big takeaway, though, is that 49% of Republicans and 29% of independents express increased enthusiasm for this election, while only 27% of Democrats say the same thing. If Obama’s attacks are depressing enthusiasm, it’s pretty clear whose enthusiasm he’s depressing. That was always the risk for a candidate whose main qualification for office was hope and change, and whose signature outcome has been economic stagnation.

 

.

 

They probably had to run the campaign ads before they knew what was in them.

[truth on hold]

After spending tens of millions of dollars trying to demonize Mitt Romney over the last two months, Barack Obama and his campaign had hoped to erode any enthusiasm for the Republican nominee. According to the new CBS/NYT poll, not only have they failed, the effort may be backfiring:

 

 

 

 

The big takeaway, though, is that 49% of Republicans and 29% of independents express increased enthusiasm for this election, while only 27% of Democrats say the same thing. If Obama’s attacks are depressing enthusiasm, it’s pretty clear whose enthusiasm he’s depressing. That was always the risk for a candidate whose main qualification for office was hope and change, and whose signature outcome has been economic stagnation.

 

.

So you think Romneys running a political "rope a dope" strategy ?

[WorldTraveller]

Someone today posted a realclearpolitics poll, suggesting that Obama was up comfortably, however, it shows that Obama is up 1.4%! That is one of the smallest leads he's had since the campaign has began. 3 out of the last 7 polls show Romney with the lead, battleground states polls have mostly tightened up over the past week, and there have been.various polls showing that conservative enthusiasm is by in large more motivated to vote than liberals, and that Hispanic and youth voters are the least enthusiastic they have Been to vote in quite some time. These registered to vote polls to reflect enthusiasm and , if the poll,s are to be believed, taking into consideration the likelyhood that they vote, Romney is up.

 

Also, if you were a lemMing of the mainstream media, you would believe that after this distracting week about Romney, Bain capital and his taxes he'd be down by double digits. Yet miraculously, the polls Have tightened, not just nationally but in the battlegrounds?

 

I think it's quite obvious that people are focused on the economy much more so than mitts tax returns.

 

 

Also, the biggest true substantive story over the past week is what Obama said. His statement regarding his views on government and small business owners is what tithe election is about. Obama believes in bigger government, he believes in economic policies founded in the name of "fairness" , which we all k ow is code word for wealth distribution. Romney believes in free markets and unfettered capitalism. My strong belief is that independents will overwhelmingly vote for capitalism over big government.

[B-Man]

More of the regurgitated belief (by many on this board) that the Obama media attacks are working..............is false.

 

Is the Bain Bashing Campaign Backfiring on the President?

By Clark S. Judge: managing director, White House Writers Group, Inc.; chairman, Pacific Research Institute

 

FTA:

But here’s the point. No matter what the missteps of the last four years or who was responsible for Washington’s state of stalemate, the harsh and vengeful tone of the president’s campaign leaves in tatters the foundational elements of Mr. Obama’s public identity. In most circumstances, that would be considered a fatal political strategy.

 

A friend who knows Illinois politics better than almost anyone tells me that scorched earth politicking is standard operating procedure for the president’s political right-hand man, David Axelrod. We can expect every kind of beyond the bounds attack on Romney before this is over, he warns, including attacks on the theology of the GOP nominee’s faith.

 

But, again, this kind of rip-America-apart tactic constitutes an about face in the president’s identity. Is that a strategy for victory?

 

Polling reinforces my doubts. The campaign of vilification has been underway for more than a month now. What has been the movement in the polls? Virtually nothing. Rasmussen’s tracking has Mr. Romney a little up. Gallop’s gives an equivalent edge to the president. Considering the intensity and cost of the president’s assaults, that’s not a good sign for the White House.

 

So here is my assessment, offered in the heat of summer when we all want to get away from our key boards and hit the pool, or the hiking trail, or the beach (which I intend to make moves toward right after I file this column): The president’s Bain is evil, Romney is Mr. Greedy 1%, and all you people who were part of starting new enterprises “didn’t do it” (as the president amazingly said a few days ago) – all of this venom is undermining the public identity that made Mr. Obama such an appealing figure four years ago.

 

If I am right, the results will hurt the president in November far more than Governor Romney.

 

Hugh Hewitt

 

.

Edited July 19, 2012 by B-Man

[WorldTraveller]

So you think Romneys running a political "rope a dope" strategy ?

I do. Obama has vastly outspent Romney trying to define him. Has it had an effect? Well, if you believe the polls, then the answer is that if anything, it has been negligible , at best. Obama has been out raised by Romney over the past two months, obamas burn rate has been outpacing his fundraising, Romney had over 160 million in the bank heading into July, and Obama didn't even publish his money in the bank totals for June. This is as good as its gonna get for Obama, regarding the ad spending despairity.

 

If Obama couldn't move the needle with all the mainstream media coverage on his side and vast money advantage in political ad spending, then he is in big trouble. Romney will outspend Obama by a 2 To 1 margin come September and October , and that's when most people are truly paying attention.

 

If Romney at least holds his own in the debates, Romney wins

[Doc]

Just wait until Barry is out of the country fundraising. That will be a good week for Romney.

[WorldTraveller]

Romney's handling of the Baine issue is extremely brutal. His job was to maximize profits- not to hire domestically. Why is it so hard for him to end that topic.....

What business do you know of sole purpose is to "hire domestically"? This is such a stupid point that I hear regurgitated over and over. If you own a pizza shop, is your intent to figure out to hire more people? How about a construction company? Or bakery? Or just about any business. Almost every single businesses intent is to maximize profits, if you are successful, then job creation is a byproduct of profits. It just happens to be that Bain capital made so much money, not just for themselves and investors, but for pension funds, unions and retirees, oh and by the way, there were tens of thousands of NET jobs created.

[3rdnlng]

Just wait until Barry is out of the country fundraising. That will be a good week for Romney.

 

Even Obama doesn't have balls that big. He needs to stay here and focus in a laser-like way on the economy so he's sending George Clooney in his place.

[WorldTraveller]

That was clearly a mistake by Obama and has given Mitt a one ledge of many he needs to pull himself past this. At least and opening to try to change the dialogue and adopt a new narrative. That said a it's not nearly as substantive as Romney's actual nondisclosure (whether relevant or not in anybody's opinion) so it wont' completely dwarf it. But it is a classic example of one slip up in the millions of speeches both candidates give provides momentum to change a bad situation...long race etc.

 

This may well be the theme at the convention which carries through the rest of the election. "Economy bad, Obama doesn't celebrate entrepreneurial America so how can he fix it?."

Really? Your saying the tax returns is more substantive than what obama was communicating on the campaign trail? Really?????

 

This wasn't a gaffe, this what the campaign is truly about. Two competing visions, one vision that Obama adopts, which calls for more government and romneys vision of less government.

 

This is the substance of the campaign, this is what voters care about, not your silly liberal obsessions of what mitt Romneysraxreturns.

 

Like I said, this was no gaffe, don't be ashamed of what he said, this is it!!

Big government vs smaller government.

[WorldTraveller]

B/c it just is. Which is fine, of course they need to take that soundbite and run with it.

 

His message is that all things are possible based on the strength of the middle class as America's base. Not that all things are possible through government.

 

The GOP will take the other reasonable position that our wonder is more b/c of those who strive/sour and they pull the rest up...and it's them that provide the value.

 

Those are the two narratives. Obama's narrative that he is running on, and that he was speaking about is not that everybody owes the government. GOP can and should jump on the sound byte now, but over time it's just a soundbyte...and it doesn't have the staying power that the vilification of Romney's tax issues has if in fact Romney continues to not release them.

 

This general clashing of the middle class v. successful class will carry through the election b/c it's the narrative they'll both frame...it's what Obama (and probably Romney) will run on.

 

But the "all things through government" isn't something Obama is actually running on or will go around saying in the future where as Romney indicates (as of now anyway) that he won't release the additional tax information. Therefore one is a sound byte to jump on, the other appears to be a lingering problem that Romney won't address. Now maybe he will address it. Who knows. All I'm saying is sound byte not framing his pitch perfectly v. not actually doing something ... the not actually doing something is more substantial in terms of political ammo w/ staying power.

 

It's not just a sound bite or gaffe, it's what he believes. It was the way he emphasized it, the way he insinuated that the average worker is just as hard of a worker as the successful business owner, which is completely false. Most workers do just enough to get by, pay the bills, work 9 to 5 and are content with that. Nothing wrong with that, but the successful business owner works 12-16 hour days, does what it takes to be successful and the way Obama emphasized That workers work just as hard as successful business owners. That's bullsh*t!!

 

This was no gaffe, this was a true look of who are president is, which is a wealth distributing social democrat.

 

It doesn't matter- mischaraterization has been going on for a long time in elections. With the amount of research voters do, it isn't surprising.

It's not misrepresentation, it is exactly what it appears.

 

At it's core it's going to be "Blue Collar Obama" v. "White Collar Romney" and Obama is going to be able to explain/appeal to people pretty well in that way. And Romney will be able to sell his pitch well as well.

 

All I was saying with regards to the Obama blurb is that even though a botch, it's somewhat on message with his blue collar pitch and it will be naturally clarified and damage minimized as a matter of course. Where as Romney's tax issues and any suspicion over that they keep drummed up while the campaign goes on hurt his pitch and won't be explained by it. Hence...one will last longer. They will hammer Romney on taxes until the end or until they're released.

Blue collar Obama???? LOL

 

And youre gonna be wrong, at the end of the day, this election won't be what liberals would rather obsess about, which is about mitts wealth, this election is, has and will always be about the economy.

 

If you were successful, somebody along the line gave you some help. There was a great teacher somewhere in your life. Somebody helped to create this unbelievable American system that we have that allowed you to thrive. Somebody invested in roads and bridges. If you’ve got a business, you didn’t build that alone. Others helped make that happen. The Internet didn’t get invented on its own. Government research created the Internet so that all the companies could make money off the Internet.

 

 

 

Rob you seem to be a little more shrill and emotional than usual.

Ummm

 

Obama's statement is right up there with:

 

"I voted for it before I voted against it."

 

"We have to pass it to see what's in it."

 

"Read my lips, no more taxes."

 

Heard on the news today a clip of a Romney speech:

 

"In the last 6 months Barack Obama has held 100 fundraisers while not meeting with his Job Council once. Whose job do you think he's worried about?"

It's not that it's worse, it's that it's a true glimpse of who he is. No need for him to be embarrassed of what he said or for his supporters to characterize it as a gaffe, it's who he is and what he believes.

 

However, this statement from Obama wasa significant moment of the campaign. What this statement did was crystallize what this election is about.

 

Big government vs small government.

 

It was the most substantive moment we've had up to now during this campaign.

Edited July 19, 2012 by WorldTraveller

[3rdnlng]

It's not just a sound bite or gaffe, it's what he believes. It was the way he emphasized it, the way he insinuated that the average worker is just as hard of a worker as the successful business owner, which is completely false. Most workers do just enough to get by, pay the bills, work 9 to 5 and are content with that. Nothing wrong with that, but the successful business owner works 12-16 hour days, does what it takes to be successful and the way Obama emphasized That workers work just as hard as successful business owners. That's bullsh*t!!

 

This was no gaffe, this was a true look of who are president is, which is a wealth distributing social democrat.

 

 

It's not misrepresentation, it is exactly what it appears.

 

 

Blue collar Obama???? LOL

 

And youre gonna be wrong, at the end of the day, this election won't be what liberals would rather obsess about, which is about mitts wealth, this election is, has and will always be about the economy.

 

 

SAys the left wing loony tune who believes Obama is a corporate shrill.

 

You have to understand, lyrbob is pretending to quote Obama in that post but he added a word to change the meaning. LA called him out on it earlier in this thread. lyrbob thought he could cover his ass by not putting it in quotation marks.

[WorldTraveller]

Wow I read almost all the posts. Back to the OPs question. Despite most of the dislike for the President on this board, he's most likely going to be reelected. Why? Because historically incumbents most often do. In recent history it's understandable why Ford and Carter didn't and I think the Ross Perot had a lot to do with the first Bush (at least it would have been closer). Americans usually don't fire their President. If I were to bet it would be Obama.

 

My 2 cents...

 

You do have a point, however obamas approval rating and consumer confidence, which are two of the best indicators there are for whether or not a president gets re elected are below where any sitting president has ever been re elected with. WAPO had a good little write up about that today.

[dayman]

World you don't understand the conversation I'm trying to have. It has nothing to do with how you feel or what the candidates are in your mind or even in reality. Basic messaging, and attack tactics...of both campaigns. It's politics talk in here. So you can leave your emotion at the door.

Edited July 19, 2012 by TheNewBills

[Doc]

If Romney said to Barry "I'll release my tax returns when you release your college transcripts and the Fast & Furious documents," he could end it right there. If he said to Barry "why do you accept campaign contributions from former Bain execs who outsourced jobs?" he could end that as well.

[Adam]

What business do you know of sole purpose is to "hire domestically"? This is such a stupid point that I hear regurgitated over and over. If you own a pizza shop, is your intent to figure out to hire more people? How about a construction company? Or bakery? Or just about any business. Almost every single businesses intent is to maximize profits, if you are successful, then job creation is a byproduct of profits. It just happens to be that Bain capital made so much money, not just for themselves and investors, but for pension funds, unions and retirees, oh and by the way, there were tens of thousands of NET jobs created.

yes and Romney would be wise to say that before too much damage is done. This is a topic that is easily finished off.

 

As far as Romney having raised significantly more money, we are nearing a point at which that will be meaningless. He should have spent significantly more by this point. You can't spend it all at once and have it be effective.

[....lybob]

Here's one for the dear departed Magox out traveling the world no doubt he always loved Youtube vids

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJ7RrjJx1ZU

[WorldTraveller]

World you don't understand the conversation I'm trying to have. It has nothing to do with how you feel or what the candidates are in your mind or even in reality. Basic messaging, and attack tactics...of both campaigns. It's politics talk in here. So you can leave your emotion at the door.

So that's your response? LOL.

 

Weak

Edited July 19, 2012 by WorldTraveller

[Rob's House]

Here's one for the dear departed Magox out traveling the world no doubt he always loved Youtube vids

 

youtube.com/watch?v=EJ7RrjJx1ZU

what happened to Magox?

 

Edit: and how thick is the irony in claiming he's "dancing around the issues" when the whole point of bringing up his tax return is to avoid discussing the issues.

Edited July 19, 2012 by Rob's House

[WorldTraveller]

what happened to Magox?

He's traveling the world, havent you heard.