12 Reasons why the Bills were bad last year

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Root cause analysis:

 

Pass rush:

- Merrimen wasn't great but he was the closest the bills had to a rush. There was no player on the roster capable of playing that end/olb when he went down. Darius drew doubles but no other player on the front was winning one on one match ups regularly. Depth was poor and even some of the starters we margainal

 

Run defense:

Bills were stronger than i can remeber vs the run in the middle with 99, 50 and 55 but off tackle they were man handled. Teams running sweeps well were really hurting them.

 

Recieving core:

Lots of depth but no compliment to jonshon that could get open quickly or gain separation off of press. The turnstile there didn't help. The best RAC performances I can think of after Stevie were turned in by chandler and naamen Roosevelt. That doesn't scare you into backing off the press coverage.

 

 

O line:

look oline was suspect, up the middle and on the edge without wood and the rotation at LT. The bills struggled to establish the run, and had to get throws out quickly. Too often the talent rb's were kept in the backfield for protection, in some cases even when blitz wasn't coming. ( this could be more scheme and recog, than line)

 

 

Qb:

I am betting there are throws every d coordinator knows fitz can't make. I think of the giants game. With two miserable picks deep left. I think of the jets pressing and rolling safties to his right and dropping linebackers to cover the slow poke slot, nelson....

 

 

The good news. If I am anywhere near correct, buddy and chan addressed every one of these with some attempted fix. A real fix. I can't wait to see the outcome .

Edited June 27, 2012 by over 20 years of fanhood

[Optometric Insight]

On #5, that is my contention as well. People want to say that they were playing "come from behind" football and that's why the interceptions that were thrown happened. You can see from the numbers that it's just not true. More than 50% of Fitzpatrick's INT's actually came when they were ahead, even, or within one score.

That's misleading; according to your numbers on one of the other threads, he threw 12 INT when ahead, tied, or down by one score and threw 23 through-out the year leading to 52%. Technically, it's more than 50% but saying "more" makes it seem like it's a higher number than it actually is.

[Luxy312]

That's misleading; according to your numbers on one of the other threads, he threw 12 INT when ahead, tied, or down by one score and threw 23 through-out the year leading to 52%. Technically, it's more than 50% but saying "more" makes it seem like it's a higher number than it actually is.

 

I'm not "making" it sound like anything. More than half of his picks were not in a situation where the team was getting pummeled as suggested in a prior post. They were in games when Fitzpatrick was making bone headed throws. Play calling wasn't desperate at all. Fitzpatrick said the exact same thing on WGR himself, so I'll take his word over that of the armchair posters here. He didn't chalk up his INT's to anything other than poor judgement.

[Optometric Insight]

I'm not "making" it sound like anything. More than half of his picks were not in a situation where the team was getting pummeled as suggested in a prior post. They were in games when Fitzpatrick was making bone headed throws. Play calling wasn't desperate at all. Fitzpatrick said the exact same thing on WGR himself, so I'll take his word over that of the armchair posters here. He didn't chalk up his INT's to anything other than poor judgement.

What else would you like us to post in? Stools, sofas...?

[billsfan89]

Injuries, a team ill fit to run a 3-4, and a offense whose QB got hurt and got exposed with a lack of a deep threat.

 

This roster is a lot deeper than it has been in a long time. Although there are some areas were depth is a concern.

 

I think Kelsay and Merriman are now bench players is a good thing, S.Johnson, D.Edwards, Heard, and Troup one or two should emerge as a solid backup at DT, Reinhart and Hariston are solid O-linemen coming off the bench, Scott and Searcy are solid back end secondary players, hopefully Brooks and J.Rodgers prove to be good CB's off the bench, Vince Young should be a decent backup QB for a short term situation, and we have a good third string RB in Choice.

 

That's a lot more bench depth than it has been in the past, not to mention that Zerbie Sanders, Tank Carter, and Nigel Bradham were all drafted in the 4th and 5th rounds this year and could contribute to the roster depth.

 

Granted we are thin at LB, WR, and Tight end but I think that Nix has one more move up his sleeve to add to the team, I wouldn't be surprised to see a veteran LB or Tight End be added to this roster as a backup before or during camp.

[loserlovers]

So this post could have gone like this....

 

"The Bills had too many injuries and their second and third string wasnt as good as their first"

 

or "they could have scored more"

[ganesh]

Anyone know how the redzone offense ranked? I don't remember it being that bad. I'm sure there were teams in the playoffs who were worse in that category. Of course part of the battle is getting there, which we did better last year than seasons before.

 

"Lack of killer instinct, couldn't run to finish games" - I don't know what that means or how it falls under coaching. We didn't lose a ton of games with the ball & the lead in the 4th Qtr. There was the Cincy game with the bogus incomplete pass, and we didn't really run effectively that whole game. The aggressive playcalling vs the Giants pretty much epitomizes killer instinct, but of course people b!tched about it because Fitz threw a horrible ball.

 

Obviously the hope is that Mario & Kyle Williams help both the run & pass defense, and Fitz doesn't play like post-Washington. Those 3 things alone are most important & really ought to be enough to get to 10wins. To say they'll close the gap by fixing 6 different things I'd say is an understatement.

 

The "Lack of Killer Instinct" comment is attributed to the coaching staff, because they couldn't push these guys to believe that they can win in spite of the injuries. Hence, under the Coaching staff. Many times, I saw Fitzpatrick sit at the corner of the bench with no emotions and head down. If that was a Belichek or Parcells coaching staff, they would have been in his face.

 

Regarding "Couldn't run to finish games": We lost close games to the Giants, Bengals, Patriots (had a 21-0 lead), Miami etc.

[sllib olaffub]

I agree that it is important to know the history of this team in order to predict the future of it - and when I look at the team entering training camp, I think they are much, much better off than last year.

 

Defense played a large part in their woes. If they had had a better defense last year, they might have finished the season 10-6 instead of the other way around. That doesn't even address injuries or Fitz's play! This transition to the 4-3, Dave Wannstedt's influence on the squad, and the player influx, not to mention the guys returning to health like Williams and Merriman, all point to one of the better defenses in the NFL this year.

 

Now, injuries did play a large part in the poor play last year, as acknowledged. If the Bills can stay healthy, they should be able to produce enough points offensively, I think, to win 10 - 12 games this year. The other points - leadership, for instance - I think there is plenty of it here. I think having the offseason is going to make a huge difference for a team that is very young and that is still coming into it's own.

 

I'd say two points that will have to bear watching - Gailey's play calling, and Fitz's QB play - will be determined in the actual games. There's little way to guess how those will pan out. Gailey's play calling will be a major factor in the games where we are up against very good teams, and if we make the playoffs. I believe he, at times last year, was too predictable, and even stubborn, with his play calling. We'll see if either he can adapt, or if his team has enough talent to play the way he wants them to all season long. And, we'll see how Fitz does now healthy and with the added tutoring of coach Lee. If he plays top 10 caliber, then the Bills should have a shot at the AFC.

 

Good questions - a lot to be hopeful for, I think!

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

3. Not converting drives into TDs and settling for FGs.

4. Poor Red Zone execution, especially in the Run game (No dominant push at LOS)

 

IIRC the Bills had the best Red Zone percentage in the NFL last season in the first 4 to 5 games. 75% comes to mind

 

Sept 20 2011 - BuffaloBills.com

 

The Bills have put the ball in the end zone on eight of their 10 red zone opportunities (80%), going 4-for-5 in each of their first two games

 

and by Nov 30th - Buffalo’s offense ranks eighth (58.3%) in red zone touchdown percentage.

 

7. Lack of Killer Instinct to finish games. Could not run the ball to run out the clock.

 

First 5 games.. Would not that killer instinct be evident in the comeback wind vs the Raiders and Putz?

[Dorkington]

So basically...

 

The defense sucked.

The offense sucked.

The coaches sucked.

[ganesh]

IIRC the Bills had the best Red Zone percentage in the NFL last season in the first 4 to 5 games. 75% comes to mind

 

Sept 20 2011 - BuffaloBills.com

 

The Bills have put the ball in the end zone on eight of their 10 red zone opportunities (80%), going 4-for-5 in each of their first two games

 

and by Nov 30th - Buffalo’s offense ranks eighth (58.3%) in red zone touchdown percentage.

 

 

 

First 5 games.. Would not that killer instinct be evident in the comeback wind vs the Raiders and Putz?

 

 

The discussion is based for the performance during the entire season, not just the first 5 games.

[thewildrabbit]

Everybody agreeing about injuries.... yet the Packers had 16 players on IR the year they won the SB, 11 of them on defense!

 

Its all about depth, and the coaches ability to have EVERYONE ready to play. The Bills screwed themselves last season by cutting some key backups, and trading away others.

 

 

 

Then the worst part of last season for me was watching the 2nd half of last year and the supposed QB guru call pass play after pass play when he had an injured QB! Chan Gailey didn't have Drew Brees or Tom Brady as his QB, and yet he kept calling pass plays like he did. The O line lost some key players to injuries and that didn't slow down the pass play calling one bit, in fact they Bills passed more often after Wood went on IR. Not to mention the experienced slot WR went on IR and the bills were left with scrubs behind Stevie Johnson. That didn't stop the Bills OC / HC from calling 4-5 WR empty backfield sets tho....with only one decent WR. Gailey wasn't fooling anyone with those play calls.

 

 

The Bills best players on offense are Fred Jackson, Stevie Johnson, and CJ Spiller if the coaches ever decide to utilize him full-time. Once Fred Jackson went on IR Spiller never saw 20 carries in any one game, the Bills just failed to build any sort of steady ground game. Shoot, even when the Bills were dominating running the ball, the OC would just keep forcing an injured QB to try and win the games.

 

Spiller had a 5.2 Yards Per Carry average and that was mostly over the last 6 games of the year. Fred Jackson was even better with a 5.5 YPC avg. Pure and simple the Buffalo Bills didn't run the ball enough last season, not in any situation.

 

 

1) Injuries, lack of depth

2) play calling, game planning

3) horrendous defense, trying to run a 3-4 without the proper players for it.

4) no pass rush.

 

 

Bottom line: it falls on the head coaches shoulders to have everyone ready to play, even the backups. The Bills game plan went out the window the 2nd half of last year once the Bills got behind in the score, even by as little as 3 points. I would have never thought that a HC with as much game experience as Gailey has would fall into the trap of trying to constantly throw into the teeth of a defense when the opponent has the lead. I watched Jaurons inexperienced OC's Turk Schoernt and AVP do the very same thing previously to Gailey

[#34fan]

On #3, you couldn't be more wrong. Within the 20 yard line, Fitzpatrick had 20 TD's and only 2 interceptions last year. That's not an area of weakness at all. Freddy also had 4 of his 6 TD's before injury in the same. 2 of Spiller's 4 TD's were also in the red zone. You might want to check the facts before you make a judgement like that.

 

On #5, that is my contention as well. People want to say that they were playing "come from behind" football and that's why the interceptions that were thrown happened. You can see from the numbers that it's just not true. More than 50% of Fitzpatrick's INT's actually came when they were ahead, even, or within one score.

 

On #7, that makes no sense. Killer instinct from the coaches? The coaches don't run the ball either.

 

On #8, the leadership was there. The fact that most of the best players were hurt and not playing was a bigger factor than leadership.

 

On the remainder, it comes down to injuries. You simply can't replace Kyle Williams and expect to get similar production from him. Losing Fred Jackson was huge. It's easy to suggest that you're going to have a comparable backup to every position, but very much not realistic. The Bills were bad mainly from the number and severity of injuries at key positions. That has been the same story for a number of years. Hopefully it's not the case in 2012. Let's remember that through that Washington game that this team was 5-2 with a win over New England. Injuries really affected them from there.

 

Ganesh hit the nail on the head with both #7 AND #8! -Coaches don't teach killer instinct?! Try telling that to Greg Williams. No wait, tell it to Bill Belichick when he's up four touchdowns in the fourth, and Tom Brady is STILL on the field. Hilarious!

 

Also, you stated that "The leadership was there" -Where was it exactly? or, more to the point, WHO?

Fitz doubled-down on the INT's right after getting paid a DUMP TRUCK of money. -He didn't have a leg to stand on. Stevie was busy hurting his team with stupid penalties for showboating, so he couldn't be taken well... Seriously. Dareus was just a rookie, a talented one, but how much weight could his words carry for a team with a 12-year playoff drought. Freddy was leading by example when he got hurt. after that, he seemed understandably preoccupied with his own future.

 

Hopefully, maybe, bringing in Mario, and Mark Anderson will address the dearth of leadership on that side of the ball.

 

That leaves Stevie and Fitz eight weeks to get their together.

[ganesh]

Ganesh hit the nail on the head with both #7 AND #8! -Coaches don't teach killer instinct?! Try telling that to Greg Williams. No wait, tell it to Bill Belichick when he's up four touchdowns in the fourth, and Tom Brady is STILL on the field. Hilarious!

 

Also, you stated that "The leadership was there" -Where was it exactly? or, more to the point, WHO?

Fitz doubled-down on the INT's right after getting paid a DUMP TRUCK of money. -He didn't have a leg to stand on. Stevie was busy hurting his team with stupid penalties for showboating, so he couldn't be taken well... Seriously. Dareus was just a rookie, a talented one, but how much weight could his words carry for a team with a 12-year playoff drought. Freddy was leading by example when he got hurt. after that, he seemed understandably preoccupied with his own future.

 

Hopefully, maybe, bringing in Mario, and Mark Anderson will address the dearth of leadership on that side of the ball.

 

That leaves Stevie and Fitz eight weeks to get their together.

:thumbsup:

 

 

Spiller had a 5.2 Yards Per Carry average and that was mostly over the last 6 games of the year. Fred Jackson was even better with a 5.5 YPC avg. Pure and simple the Buffalo Bills didn't run the ball enough last season, not in any situation.

 

 

1) Injuries, lack of depth

2) play calling, game planning

3) horrendous defense, trying to run a 3-4 without the proper players for it.

4) no pass rush.

 

 

Bottom line: it falls on the head coaches shoulders to have everyone ready to play, even the backups. The Bills game plan went out the window the 2nd half of last year once the Bills got behind in the score, even by as little as 3 points. I would have never thought that a HC with as much game experience as Gailey has would fall into the trap of trying to constantly throw into the teeth of a defense when the opponent has the lead. I watched Jaurons inexperienced OC's Turk Schoernt and AVP do the very same thing previously to Gailey

 

Couldn't agree any more. Thanks for backing up. While Spiller may have emerged with a 5.2 Yards Per Carry, that is not what I heard after every one of those game. People were down on Spiller and as to how he really didn't get the yards when it was needed etc. etc. We are not rushing the ball when it counted like we did in the first five games.

 

The HC and the coaching staff did not have the backups ready to play when the starters went down with injury. Brad Smith was not used in the 2nd half, when they could have taken the pressure off from the bruised ribs of Fitzpatrick. And after every one of those games, Gailey gave a blank look and just said "We have to figure out why things did not work".

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

The discussion is based for the performance during the entire season, not just the first 5 games.

That is true. You must admit that injuries paid a steep toll on an offense rolling up good points. It's not like he entire season sucked.

 

The lack of decent BACK UP at most key positions may still be a big issue.

[BuffOrange]

The "Lack of Killer Instinct" comment is attributed to the coaching staff, because they couldn't push these guys to believe that they can win in spite of the injuries. Hence, under the Coaching staff. Many times, I saw Fitzpatrick sit at the corner of the bench with no emotions and head down. If that was a Belichek or Parcells coaching staff, they would have been in his face.

 

Regarding "Couldn't run to finish games": We lost close games to the Giants, Bengals, Patriots (had a 21-0 lead), Miami etc.

 

I suppose he was in the middle of the bench with his head up when we were losing by 18-21 to NE & Oakland. I gotta question Fitz for not duplicating this winning sideline body language in games they lost. Also what if it were a Landry or Knoll or Walsh or Dungy coaching staff?

 

 

Ganesh hit the nail on the head with both #7 AND #8! -Coaches don't teach killer instinct?! Try telling that to Greg Williams. No wait, tell it to Bill Belichick when he's up four touchdowns in the fourth, and Tom Brady is STILL on the field. Hilarious!

 

No doubt it was this master killer instinct that blew 2score leads in the 4th Qtr vs the Rams/Panthers in two of their SB wins so that a FG was necessary at the end.

[Cub Reporter]

I don't think the Bills were bad last year. I know they went 6-10, but when they were healthy they were great, they were one of the best teams in the AFC. I'm not saying the only reason the Bills collapsed last season was injuries, but I think it was the main reason. Also, last year we got to see how important it is to have a great quarterback, I mean firsthand, see how a good quarterback meakes a team great, and a mediocre quarterback makes a team bad. Lastly, I was watching the Bills v Patriots replay a couple weeks ago, and saw even in the beginnning of the season our defense was terrible. I think all those problems are fixed now. We have okay depth so if we get into injury trouble, we shouldn't collapse. Fitzpatrick is back to 100 percent so he should be better(hoping it was injuries that made him bad suddenly). And through the draft and FA we possibly have a top five defense in the NFL.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

There is has been so many changes during this off season that all we hear is positive vibes. It is important to go back and look at what ailed our beloved bills last year and what these off season changes have done to eliminate them.

Here are my 12 reasons why the Bills were a bad team last year.

 

Your defensive points are valid, and very general. Your offensive points are more specific.

 

Defense:

1. Ability to stop the RUN when it counts

2. Ability to rush the passer and not give them all the world to complete a pass

 

Offense:

3. Not converting drives into TDs and settling for FGs.

4. Poor Red Zone execution, especially in the Run game (No dominant push at LOS)

5. Bad throws by the QB

6. Lack of a 2nd play maker to take pressure off Stevie Johnson

6a. Inability to use the TE in the middle of the field and use only as a Red zone target.

 

This makes it look as though our problems were largely on the O side of the ball. That simply isn't true. Even with all the injuries (Fitz ribs, Wood, Bell, Hairston, FJ, SJ playing hurt, Jones getting hurt), the Offense finished in the middle of the pack. The Defense finished in the cellar. We won games we should have lost early on because the offense was able to go into Overdrive mode and outscore the other team in the 2nd half, overcoming the lack of stops on the D. We lost games we should have won in the 2nd half of the season because the O scored enough points, but the D couldn't get the stops we needed.

 

Let me try to insert similar granularity into the defensive analysis:

 

1. Inability to set the edge playing Spencer Johnson and Kelsey as OLB

2. Injuries to the DL (esp Williams) leading to Dareus playing out of position and lack of functionality as a traditional 3-4 DL

3. Total lack of pass rushing talent from the front 7

4. 1+2 leading to inability to even get good pressure from the front 7

5. Poor DB play in part caused by lack of pressure

6. but also caused by McKelvin's poor ball skills and injuries to McGee and Wilson

7. an overly complicated defensive scheme that didn't favor our personnel, and that required rookies to "think too much"

8. complicated by lack of OTAs, minicamps, and a truncated training camp limiting time to learn the scheme

 

When we have this more granular assessment, then we can see what the Bills have done to improve in the off season that directly addresses their greatest weaknesses

 

Points 1, 7, and 8. Change coach and scheme to 4-3, a better fit for our personnel

Points 3. and 1. Add top-flight pass rushing talent in Mario Williams and Mark Anderson. Return Johnson and Kelsey to their natural position as DL

Point 2. This also added much-needed depth

Point 4 with Kyle Williams and Dareus in the middle and Williams and Anderson on the end, we really should be able to generate pressure and penetration just from the front 4

Point 5 with better pressure and penetration from the DL, the DB won't have to cover as long.

Point 5 and 6 But we also have better DB I think, with Searcy and Williams getting needed experience and the addition of Gilmore

 

In your offensive analysis, I think you're completely missing the impact of injuries. You mention them later, true. Yet in the beginning of the season, when our OL was intact and FJ healthy, Jones and Nelson were able to take pressure off SJ and we were able to hit Chandler outside the red zone and be a high-scoring offense. When Wood went out and Bell and Hairston were alternating injuries, and we were down to our 3rd string WR, it wasn't so pretty. As others pointed out, we weren't set up to be a "run first" team, and when the pass was shut down, we also couldn't run.

Edited June 30, 2012 by Hopeful