3rdnlng Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Well, they now have voted in Mohammed Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. The country is moving away from being secular and will end up being either an Islamic State or run by the military. This can't be good for Israel. It also may take away the U.S.'s ally in the region. We've been giving them financial aid and advanced weapons. What's anybodys guess on what it'll look like over there in a year or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UConn James Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 From what I've read, a little from Column A, a little from Column B. It seems as if the military commanders will be the military commanders and do what they want. Morsi will basically be a leader without an army. He has intoned that all groups will be accepted and protected, but we've heard that before.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Koko78 Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Hopefully neither group is stupid enough to screw with Israel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted June 24, 2012 Author Share Posted June 24, 2012 From what I've read, a little from Column A, a little from Column B. It seems as if the military commanders will be the military commanders and do what they want. Morsi will basically be a leader without an army. He has intoned that all groups will be accepted and protected, but we've heard that before.... I don't know how they can have Sharia Law, like Morsi says and still accept and protect all groups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 (edited) While I in no way will ever claim to have the knowledge required to feel strongly one way or another about the future of Egypt, it's probably very safe to say that this is not going to end up the way everything thought back when it seemed like a good idea to facilitate a regime change in a tiny, useless little place like Egypt. On the upside, if things go to hell, Obama can justifiably do what he always does: blame someone else. "Hey, this was a French mission." Edited June 24, 2012 by LABillzFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomato can Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 Well, they now have voted in Mohammed Morsi, a member of the Muslim Brotherhood. The country is moving away from being secular and will end up being either an Islamic State or run by the military. This can't be good for Israel. It also may take away the U.S.'s ally in the region. We've been giving them financial aid and advanced weapons. What's anybodys guess on what it'll look like over there in a year or two? It's not going to look good there in a year or two. Not good for Israel but they knew the Muslim Brotherhood was going to win the election. We have to cut off the aid to them for now and try and get them on the right path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UConn James Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 It's not going to look good there in a year or two. Not good for Israel but they knew the Muslim Brotherhood was going to win the election. We have to cut off the aid to them for now and try and get them on the right path. Cutting off military aid would force the military to kneel to the government. Stability-wise and for national security interests in the region, it would likely be best to keep the civilian government marginalized as much as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 There's an assumption at work here that the Muslim Brotherhood will pursue international policy and Sharia Law in as nutty a fashion as the Taliban. While that's a perfectly natural assumption, particularly for Americans to make given the past twelve years of history, it may not necessarily be an accurate one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveinElma Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 On the upside, if things go to hell, Obama can justifiably do what he always does: blame someone else. "Hey, this was a French mission." Or he can just send over a "Reset Burka". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayman Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 There's an assumption at work here that the Muslim Brotherhood will pursue international policy and Sharia Law in as nutty a fashion as the Taliban. While that's a perfectly natural assumption, particularly for Americans to make given the past twelve years of history, it may not necessarily be an accurate one. Long term I think it could be an assumption to make. Like everyone here I'm no expert in internal Egyptian affairs but in terms of the next 1 or 2 years I wouldn't expect things to go nuts. As the first Muslim brotherhood guy (and first president period) he knows what's up...he won't try to impose too much radical stuff on everybody and he's said he doesn't want an Islamic democracy he just wants a democracy (whatever that means it sounds better than Islamic democracy). I don't get the impression he's too crazy despite American impulse to cringe at "Muslim Brotherhood." Also I'm pretty optimistic so I'm thinking we'll see a Turkey type situation. The obvious wildcard is how the nation as a whole reacts to democracy in action when they don't like policy made (even if it's not what we think of as crazy policy). I wouldn't expect massive oppression of women and radicalized terror in the next 2 years as a direct result of the election alone. In fact I think all in all things will be better under him than the holdover candidate from the last regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayman Posted June 24, 2012 Share Posted June 24, 2012 (edited) Also another optimist thought...Muslim Brotherhood does keep its promise and entertains legitimate democracy (helped along by a weary military) and all the sudden you have a high profile Middle Eastern country with heavy Islamic overtones engaging in democracy. Islam getting on board w/ democracy (stable one) is the ultimate long term goal in that area of the world so it is an opportunity. Edited June 24, 2012 by TheNewBills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cinga Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 There's an assumption at work here that the Muslim Brotherhood will pursue international policy and Sharia Law in as nutty a fashion as the Taliban. While that's a perfectly natural assumption, particularly for Americans to make given the past twelve years of history, it may not necessarily be an accurate one. WTF???? over... things will "possibly" be different now huh?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeviF Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 The Muslim Brotherhood doesn't seem nearly as radically hell-bent on derka derka jihad and 13th-century throwbacks as the Taliban and their ilk, but the key word is "seem." It's all a matter of waiting and seeing at this point. Maybe (but hopefully not) I'll be right in the end. I told all my leftist "woo viva la revolucion" friends that the worst thing that could possibly happen was Mubarak stepping down, as a reactionist government would probably take his place. Two days later, he steps down. I dished out some tentative crow when the MB won a majority, but I'm still waiting to serve up a big, steaming platter's worth. I'm with TheNewBills on the Turkey thing; I think that's a good-case (not necessarily best-case) scenario for Egypt at this point. Hopefully neither group is stupid enough to screw with Israel. This WTF???? over... things will "possibly" be different now huh?? Different organization, different country, different situation, different people... yeah, it's safe to say that things could "possibly" be different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 The Muslim Brotherhood doesn't seem nearly as radically hell-bent on derka derka jihad and 13th-century throwbacks as the Taliban and their ilk, but the key word is "seem." It's all a matter of waiting and seeing at this point. Maybe (but hopefully not) I'll be right in the end. I told all my leftist "woo viva la revolucion" friends that the worst thing that could possibly happen was Mubarak stepping down, as a reactionist government would probably take his place. Two days later, he steps down. I dished out some tentative crow when the MB won a majority, but I'm still waiting to serve up a big, steaming platter's worth. I'm with TheNewBills on the Turkey thing; I think that's a good-case (not necessarily best-case) scenario for Egypt at this point. This Different organization, different country, different situation, different people... yeah, it's safe to say that things could "possibly" be different. Morsi stated that he wanted "Islamic Law" to be instituted, and that was before the election. He won. There are consequences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeviF Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 (edited) Morsi stated that he wanted "Islamic Law" to be instituted, and that was before the election. He won. There are consequences. Again, a Turkey-like scenario is a good-case scenario. Not a necessarily likely scenario, not a definite. I still think I might be dishing out some crow IRL. I'm hoping I won't have to, though. Edited June 25, 2012 by LeviF91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 Again, a Turkey-like scenario is a good-case scenario. Not a necessarily likely scenario, not a definite. I still think I might be dishing out some crow IRL. I'm hoping I won't have to, though. Well, the MB was talking about nullifying the peace treaty with Israel and I think I read somewhere that Egypt closed down a pipeline to Israel some time ago. Israel gave up the Sinai in exchange for the peace treaty and there's already been some clashes. I don't feel too confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dayman Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 (edited) Morsi stated that he wanted "Islamic Law" to be instituted, and that was before the election. He won. There are consequences. And look at the stuff we say in our primaries and even the general. Is abortion ever illegal? (just to use the most direct one that is always talked about that effects freedoms) I mean he may instate law modeled after Islam but they have yet to elect a parliament (it was a close run off and other interests got significant numbers in the general), they have yet to write a constitution, the military is basically still in control as of now...it's a "wait and see." They are the Muslim Brotherhood though I mean expect some Islam stuff that wouldn't fly here...but that's their choice and they can work it out through democracy. He's not an islamic dictator ... if he can get Islamic policy done through a legit government then that's just what they want over there. Edited June 25, 2012 by TheNewBills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 And look at the stuff we say in our primaries and even the general. Is abortion ever illegal? (just to use the most direct one that is always talked about that effects freedoms) I mean he may instate law modeled after Islam but they have yet to elect a parliament (it was a close run off and other interests got significant numbers in the general), they have yet to write a constitution, the military is basically still in control as of now...it's a "wait and see." They are the Muslim Brotherhood though I mean expect some Islam stuff that wouldn't fly here...but that's their choice and they can work it out through democracy. He's not an islamic dictator ... if he can get Islamic policy done through a legit government then that's just what they want over there. I don't disagree necessarily with what you are saying. It's just that he ran on that "platform" and won. If their parliament is representative of the people they are likely to institute some form of sharia. If the military stays in control they won't have a democracy. I just don't see anything good coming from that country's situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC Tom Posted June 25, 2012 Share Posted June 25, 2012 Morsi stated that he wanted "Islamic Law" to be instituted, and that was before the election. He won. There are consequences. "Islamic Law" isn't any more monolithically defined than "Christian Law". Like I said before - and Cigna, naturally, was incapable of understanding - a natural assumption for us to make, having had to deal with the Taliban idiots for the past decade-plus. But not necessarily a good assumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted June 25, 2012 Author Share Posted June 25, 2012 (edited) "Islamic Law" isn't any more monolithically defined than "Christian Law". Like I said before - and Cigna, naturally, was incapable of understanding - a natural assumption for us to make, having had to deal with the Taliban idiots for the past decade-plus. But not necessarily a good assumption. Hey, I hope I'm wrong and if they do institute Islamic law that it's a different form than a harsh Sharia Law. I don't hold out a lot of hope though. Edited June 25, 2012 by 3rdnlng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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