Fake-Fat Sunny Posted December 31, 2004 Share Posted December 31, 2004 I actually doubt it more and more. This feeling is not driven by any sense that he is a bad player because on the contrary I think he is pretty good and depite some clear flaws in his game (he is going to get hit with at least one penalty a game and the hope is it does not come at a critical time on some critical play, he has yet to play an entire season and while it would be too strident to call him injury prone it is essential the Bills have someone like Price backing him up because he is going to miss a game or two and will be unlikely to finish a game or two even if he can answer the bell the next week) he certainly is worth the Bills resigning at even a slightly higher rate than the market will give him because continuity and chemistry are important. The issue is here that I actually don't think that Jennings will command a top 10 OL contract in this market. Reasonable LT have gotten big bucks the past few years so the conventional wisdom is certainly that Jennings will likely command a big salary as a credible multiyear starter at LT. However, it is exactly because of the run on LTs the last few years that I think Jennings will not command huge offers even though I would be proud to have him as a Bill. Note this: 1. Many teams have reacted to the run on LTs by giving reasonable or good contracts to some fairly pedestrian talent at the position. Teams such NTG and Chicago have committed to players like Luke Petitgout and Kyle Clifton at LT with multiyear deals that average out at $5 million a year even if it is questionable whether they are worth that much or better than Jennings. Even if Jennings is available to these teams as a UFA these teams are out of the market. 2. Of the top 10 OL salaries it appears 8 of them are for LTs and these teams are not in the market for Jennings either. 3. Among the teams that are in the market for an LT, there are players who are either better than Jennings like Orlando Pace, or are better or at least have a rep of being better like Tra Thomas or Walter Jones who actually will command the first contracts that teams with an LT room and cap room will make an offer to get. I'd pay top 10 cap hit $ for Pace if I had it to spend without flinching so he gets an offer before and a higher offer than Jennings, so the market is constrained for him here as well. 4. Teams that have a need and want him have other cap commitments which will constrain what they offer their LT. Jennings appears that he would love to go home to AT, but AT just put over 100 million of their cap money into Michael Vick. Conceivably AT might judge further investment into the O as useful for protecting the Vick investment and making it payoff, but they just expended a large cap hit to sign Peerless Price for Vick's game last year and we will see in these playoffs whether the better way for them to win is to expend the limited cap resources they have left on improving a D which allowed Carolina to push a game into OT where it was Vick's heroics which saved them. I don't know AT's cap situation, but I would not be surrised if they cannot afford an offer to make Jennings a top 10 OL offer. 5. Jennings is an aspiring agent and folks fear that the will have the intellect to stick up the Bills for big money. However, it is the prescence of an agent's intellect which will allow Jennings to read the market like TD and see that the pickings may be slim so he is better off signing for more money than he has ever seen with the Bills even though it is far less than top 10 OL cap hit money. The bottom line for the Bills is that under the rules Jennings is a UFA and thus will be able to operate in the somewhat free market and get a substantial contract. However, while the Bills will certainly have to look at FAs if Jennings goes and they acquired an LT in Teague a couple of years ago for $2 million a year they will easily have to pay this amount or more this year for a potential replacement for Jennings. My sense of the calculus is that Jennings is not worth the franchise tag amount for an LT of $7 million annually (an amounted bouyed by payments to studs such as Ogden and inflated by the Bills ongoing overpayment to Ruben brown) or even the transition tag amount of $6 million annually that the Runyans drag down. In fact, if he gets this type of offer from someone, i say adios and good luck because we cannot afford this amount and if we were willing to pay it there are other LTs like Pace I'd try to get. In fact, the devil is in the details I have not taken the time to review all the LT contracts in the league to figure it out, but I would not sign Jennings for more than what was offered to pederstrian talents like Cifton and Petitgout because I doubt the market will make offers any higher than this available to Jennings. If we hve to say goodbye and good luck to him, i think there are ample other options for LT that the Bills might pursue. Its not his quality of play but i simply don't think the market is going to support a upper tier OL contract deal for Jennings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sisyphean Bills Posted December 31, 2004 Share Posted December 31, 2004 I'm wondering if the must-have great LT heyday is in the rearview mirror to some extent. When Bruce Smith was in his prime, especially teams in the AFC East simply had to have a great LT in order to do anything offensively. But the Bills owned the AFC East and they had an average LT in John Fina. And Jim Kelly wasn't exactly Michael Vick in the pocket either. Anyway, the need for truly dominant OTs seems to be lessened from what it once was (say 10-15 years ago) with the all-time greats like Bruce Smith, Charles Haley, Reggie White, etc. no longer wreaking havoc on opponents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake-Fat Sunny Posted December 31, 2004 Author Share Posted December 31, 2004 I'm wondering if the must-have great LT heyday is in the rearview mirror to some extent. When Bruce Smith was in his prime, especially teams in the AFC East simply had to have a great LT in order to do anything offensively. But the Bills owned the AFC East and they had an average LT in John Fina. And Jim Kelly wasn't exactly Michael Vick in the pocket either. Anyway, the need for truly dominant OTs seems to be lessened from what it once was (say 10-15 years ago) with the all-time greats like Bruce Smith, Charles Haley, Reggie White, etc. no longer wreaking havoc on opponents. 186455[/snapback] The need has also shifted away from LT as the one cadillac position. With the success of Big Ted, the mileage the Bills are getting out of Phat Pat and Adams and the advent of bruisers at DT like Bowens in MI, there is now a premium being placed on good guard play that has even gotten folks talking about moving MWs big RT bucks to guard (a quite unlikely move given his recent play at RT). In addition, not only are quality rushers such whathisname in NYG lining up at RE, but teams are running more stunts to free up rushers so the best rusher may come from anywhere and teams like the Bills and Steelers are making hay with zone blitzes which means the center is doing line calls which call on all blockers to be ready to go up against the opponents best rusher. I think LTs will still command a premium because they have no help to one side since the TE is on the other side and it takes a while anyway for shifts in contracts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted December 31, 2004 Share Posted December 31, 2004 I'm wondering if the must-have great LT heyday is in the rearview mirror to some extent. When Bruce Smith was in his prime, especially teams in the AFC East simply had to have a great LT in order to do anything offensively. But the Bills owned the AFC East and they had an average LT in John Fina. And Jim Kelly wasn't exactly Michael Vick in the pocket either. Anyway, the need for truly dominant OTs seems to be lessened from what it once was (say 10-15 years ago) with the all-time greats like Bruce Smith, Charles Haley, Reggie White, etc. no longer wreaking havoc on opponents. 186455[/snapback] You point is well taken, but the Bills will need a better than average LT as long as Drew is the qb imo. If JP is his replacement, he will require a top LT while he attempts to learn the pro game. As for Fina, he was less than average toward the end and probably influenced the retirement of Kelly along with the other bad players up front on the Bills. I believe that JJ does want to go to Atl., but it is debatable as to whether the falcs can devote the kind of cash he will ask after the Vick deal. They ARE going to need defense. It will be interesting to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rico Posted December 31, 2004 Share Posted December 31, 2004 Atlanta may be home, & the Falcons have a up-and-coming team, but IMO JJ would have to be an idiot to want to leave the Bills the way this team is playing. I think TD will offer both him & Phat Pat fair contract offers, & that both will stay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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