1B4IDie Posted June 4, 2012 Posted June 4, 2012 (edited) You have 100 M&Ms, 32 people. 10 of those 32 people have 60 M&Ms. The remaining 22 have only 40. That is meaningful. I know it's not perfect, but it's a quick analysis. I measured top and bottom, because it's logical to assume, more often than not, that good teams will have top 10 stats in seemingly important categories and bad teams, bottom 10. You're more than welcome to measure top 15 and bottom 17. I didn't have enough time for that. I agree, it would be interesting to see a couple more years, too. Right agree over time would be interesting, but to my point. You're trying to look at the causation between how many M&Ms the person has and whether or not they get up and go to the next room (playoffs.) I'm not trying to blow up your analysis; I'm trying to strengthen it. It would be interesting to see someone look at these numbers over time and see if there are real predictors of playoff success. Stats can be meaningful or meaningless. For Example The last 3 years. There were 9 training camps that were held in the State of New York. 3 of those teams made the playoffs. Does that mean if you hold your training camp in the State of New York you have 33% chance of making the playoffs? (the Answer is No; there is no causation but there is a correlation between the two) I think you're on to something but would like to see this done where the resulting information has some more meaning. The question is, is there a causation with being above average in certain stats and playoff appearances. The Answer so far is, In 2011 Being above average in First Downs seems to have some importance as an indicator, and YPC over the season seems not to have some importance as an indicator (#32 in ypc won the Super Bowl) Edited June 4, 2012 by Why So Serious?
The Senator Posted June 4, 2012 Posted June 4, 2012 Buffalo no doubt is on track to have one of the best defensive lines in the NFL. We're also bound to go from near-last in the NFL in sacks to Top 5. So...I checked sack totals for last season to see the correlation of sacks vs. playoff berths. The top 10 sackers had a 50 percent chance of making it, while the bottom 10 had a terrible 10 percent chance. Here are some other stats correlated for playoff berths. Feel free to add more or adjust: Defensive sacks - Top 10 sack leaders--50 percent playoff rate. - Bottom 10--10 percent rate. Buffalo is the No. 6 worst. Defensive INT - Top 10 INT leaders--60 percent playoff rate. Buffalo is No. 6 best. - Bottom 10 INT leaders--40 percent rate. Defensive INT touchdowns - Top 10 leaders--40 percent playoff rate. Buffalo is No. 2 best. - Bottom 10--30 percent rate. Defensive forced fumbles - Top 10--50 percent playoff rate. Buffalo is No. 9 best. - Bottom 10--30 percent rate. Offensive sacks - Top 10 most sacked--30 percent playoff rate. - Bottom 10 least sacked--40 percent rate. Buffalo is No. 1 best. Offensive INTs - Top 10 most offensive INTs--10 percent playoff rate. Buffalo is No. 1 worst. - Bottom 10 least offensive INTs--60 percent playoff rate. Offensive passing TDs - Top 10 most TDs--60 percent playoff rate. Buffalo is No. 9 best. - Bottom 10 least TDs--10 percent rate. Offensive fumbles - Top 10 most fumbles (AFC)--40 percent playoff rate. - Bottom 10 least fumbles (AFC)--20 percent rate. Buffalo is No. 1 best. Rushing yards per attempt - Top 10 most yards--20 percent playoff rate!!?? Buffalo is No. 5 best. - Bottom 10 least yards--30 percent rate!!?? First downs - Top 10 most first downs--70 percent playoff rate. Buffalo is in neither top or bottom. - Bottom 10 least first downs--10 percent playoff rate. So...what can we glean from this? Buffalo fared well in most stat categories. However, many of those categories had little correlation to making the playoffs! It appears that the following stats have a strong correlation to making the playoffs: Defensive sacks. We were bad. Defensive forced fumbles: We're already top 10. Offensive INTs: We were worst in this category. Offensive passing TDs: We are in the top 10. Offensive first downs: Buffalo is average. We need to get more. Other observations: Buffalo has some good overall stats. But the ones that killed us were offensive INTs and lack of defensive sacks. Pittsburgh and Denver have horrible stats. Both teams are in the bottom 10 for many categories, but still made the playoffs. For offensive INTs and defensive sacks, both were mediocre. Why? And what can we emulate from these teams? Buffalo had some good rushing stats. But it appears rushing had little to do with playoff success last season. It truly is a passing league now. Summary: Buffalo will be a playoff team if it continues the good stats of last season and improves on defensive sacks, first downs and substantially limits offensive INTs. I believe a lot more sacks and a few fewer INTs will definitely happen, as offensive INTs piled up after Fitz' injury and our D line is so improved. The real question marks are... Can we substantially decrease offensive INTs and somewhat increase first downs? Can't wait for football. I'll tell you what I glean from all this, Justin (although I think you already know)... 19 and 0 baby!!!! GO BILLSSS!!!!
Just in Atlanta Posted June 5, 2012 Author Posted June 5, 2012 I'll tell you what I glean from all this, Justin (although I think you already know)... 19 and 0 baby!!!! GO BILLSSS!!!! I'm shocked at your analysis, senator.
Recommended Posts