Jobs Report

[Magox]

I've seen signs of a possible slow down over the past few months, and it seems as if it is pretty much confirmed, the question is how long will it last?

 

From my estimations, the slow down here domestically speaking began almost two to three months ago. ISM, Factory orders, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence, weekly jobless claims, the unemployment report and a whole host of other reports suggest that we will continue to cool down. What was especially bad about those jobs numbers wasn't even so much the lousy numbers for May, but the dramatic revisions for the month prior.

 

JA brought up a point the other day that he believed the lowering of Oil prices would be a good thing for the president, and it is to a degree, but I argued that if the price of oil went down to $85 a barrel that it would indicate possible fractures in the economy, and that if oil came down, then so would stocks, and that is precisely what happened.

 

With China continuing to slow down and utter chaos and uncertainty in Europe, the external forces that were helping grow our exporting manufacturing base (primarily coming from China,India) now seems that it won't be an engine of growth for our exporters. Again, how long will China, India and Brazil continue to cool down? To be honest, I really don't know, but I would guess at least for a few more months, until China's stimulus kicks in, which they have shown that they are quite efficient when implementing these measures.

 

Europe is a disaster, there is no good outcome over there. The only outcomes are either really bad or catastrophic and anything in between. So the uncertainty and depressed growth rates over there will serve as a negative for what happens over here.

 

Then there is the "fiscal cliff", since it appears that neither the president or the house republicans have any desire in compromising on this serious issue, it looks like the best possible scenario we could possibly see is that at some point, months from now, we get an extension of current policies until a president is decided after the elections. In the meantime, this will be yet another layer of uncertainty that will cloud over US corporations and small businesses which of course will create another obstacle for Job hiring.

 

So what are the possible implications for the presidency? I would of said going into the May Jobs report, that Romney stood a 50/50 chance, I would say that his odds of winning have gone up. I may be wrong, but I believe we are going to have really weak economic numbers for at least the next three months. Now of course, these ultra low interest rates could spur more lending (doubtful but possible), these low oil prices could help consumers who don't have 401ks and stocks have more disposable income, which in turn creates more demand for certain goods and services and then of course the Federal Reserve could come in with another round of QE (Which I believe is highly likely) and that could jump start the stock market again, helping create another manufactured wealth effect, that could in turn increase consumer confidence.

 

Of course another round of QE would most likely increase oil and gasoline prices, so that is a double edged sword.

 

If what I believe will happen, which is stagnant growth, and subpar employment numbers, then that will increase Romney's chances of winning this fall. He has already dramatically made headway over the past two months, my guess is that the polling numbers will continue to go his way.

[jjamie12]

I've seen signs of a possible slow down over the past few months, and it seems as if it is pretty much confirmed, the question is how long will it last?

 

From my estimations, the slow down here domestically speaking began almost two to three months ago. ISM, Factory orders, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence, weekly jobless claims, the unemployment report and a whole host of other reports suggest that we will continue to cool down. What was especially bad about those jobs numbers wasn't even so much the lousy numbers for May, but the dramatic revisions for the month prior.

 

JA brought up a point the other day that he believed the lowering of Oil prices would be a good thing for the president, and it is to a degree, but I argued that if the price of oil went down to $85 a barrel that it would indicate possible fractures in the economy, and that if oil came down, then so would stocks, and that is precisely what happened.

 

With China continuing to slow down and utter chaos and uncertainty in Europe, the external forces that were helping grow our exporting manufacturing base (primarily coming from China,India) now seems that it won't be an engine of growth for our exporters. Again, how long will China, India and Brazil continue to cool down? To be honest, I really don't know, but I would guess at least for a few more months, until China's stimulus kicks in, which they have shown that they are quite efficient when implementing these measures.

 

Europe is a disaster, there is no good outcome over there. The only outcomes are either really bad or catastrophic and anything in between. So the uncertainty and depressed growth rates over there will serve as a negative for what happens over here.

 

Then there is the "fiscal cliff", since it appears that neither the president or the house republicans have any desire in compromising on this serious issue, it looks like the best possible scenario we could possibly see is that at some point, months from now, we get an extension of current policies until a president is decided after the elections. In the meantime, this will be yet another layer of uncertainty that will cloud over US corporations and small businesses which of course will create another obstacle for Job hiring.

 

So what are the possible implications for the presidency? I would of said going into the May Jobs report, that Romney stood a 50/50 chance, I would say that his odds of winning have gone up. I may be wrong, but I believe we are going to have really weak economic numbers for at least the next three months. Now of course, these ultra low interest rates could spur more lending (doubtful but possible), these low oil prices could help consumers who don't have 401ks and stocks have more disposable income, which in turn creates more demand for certain goods and services and then of course the Federal Reserve could come in with another round of QE (Which I believe is highly likely) and that could jump start the stock market again, helping create another manufactured wealth effect, that could in turn increase consumer confidence.

 

Of course another round of QE would most likely increase oil and gasoline prices, so that is a double edged sword.

 

If what I believe will happen, which is stagnant growth, and subpar employment numbers, then that will increase Romney's chances of winning this fall. He has already dramatically made headway over the past two months, my guess is that the polling numbers will continue to go his way.

 

I am an unabashed Romney supporter, but his path to the Presidency is still pretty difficult. As long as there isn't a significant worsening of the economy, I think it's going to be really difficult for him, electorally speaking. I don't see significant worsening over the next 6 months or so, do you? I think all of the major issues are at about the 9-12 month window in affecting our economy.

 

We were talking at work about how there is now probably a significant chance of another Great Depression. In fact, if you look at how the 30's played out I *think* it was remarkably similar to how we've started out in this most recent crisis.

[Magox]

I am an unabashed Romney supporter, but his path to the Presidency is still pretty difficult. As long as there isn't a significant worsening of the economy, I think it's going to be really difficult for him, electorally speaking. I don't see significant worsening over the next 6 months or so, do you? I think all of the major issues are at about the 9-12 month window in affecting our economy.

 

We were talking at work about how there is now probably a significant chance of another Great Depression. In fact, if you look at how the 30's played out I *think* it was remarkably similar to how we've started out in this most recent crisis.

 

I think what matters most is if people get the sense that we are moving in the right direction. There is alot of anxiety out there, and going into that jobs report, the ones who usually decide the outcome the swing voters were on the mend.

 

If the economy shows similar results to what we've been seeing over the past month, than Romney most likely wins.

 

Florida and NC now show Romney in the lead according to RCP and Ohio according to Rasmussen is showing Romneys first lead there since last year. Even Colorado, Iowa and Nevada according to NBC's latest polls which have shown a heavier democratic sampling than other polls show a virtual tie here.

 

All the polls have shown a dramatic tightening over the past two months.

 

It appears to me that the economy is gonna be weak over the next few months, and that only Reinforces Romneys argument, which is that "Obama is not up to the task, I am, I'm the fixit guy".

 

Remember, Romney needs Indiana which he'll get, North Carolina which looks likely, Florida where ROmney now has the lead, and then Ohio, Virginia and one other state, that could either be Iowa, NH, Colorado, Wisconsin, PA or Nevada.

 

I would say, that when the polls come out about a week from now, you will see Romney with evens stronger poll numbers.

[PearlHowardman]

I am an unabashed Romney supporter, but his path to the Presidency is still pretty difficult. As long as there isn't a significant worsening of the economy, I think it's going to be really difficult for him, electorally speaking. I don't see significant worsening over the next 6 months or so, do you?

 

The 69,000 new jobs in the month of May was LESS THAN HALF of what economists expected. I'll say that again, LESS THAN HALF!

 

And there was a financial bloodbath on Wall Street as a result.

 

I fully expect that by November the national economic numbers will be even worse than they are now.

 

Obama can only stand back and watch. There's nothing he can do!

 

Romney wins in a landslide.

[Wacka]

You people keep talking about lower gas pric es. We sure as hell don't see them here in California. They peaked at 4.32 and are now "down" to 4.15 at the cheapest place I've seen. Meanwhile on the radio, they say it is about 3.65 for a national average and as low as 3.10 in NC.

[John Adams]

It wasn't me who brought up gas prices.

This election has always been about the economy of these critical months. I thought it would be good to ok and Obama would roll. Now it looks bad...and bad for Obama. Plus Mitt is running a great campaign so far.

Edited June 3, 2012 by John Adams

[3rdnlng]

You people keep talking about lower gas pric es. We sure as hell don't see them here in California. They peaked at 4.32 and are now "down" to 4.15 at the cheapest place I've seen. Meanwhile on the radio, they say it is about 3.65 for a national average and as low as 3.10 in NC.

 

In CA you guys, as I understand it have a delivery problem? Or is it just the cost of overseas oil having to be transported further? What's your state tax on gascompared to NC? When I lived there it appeared as if there was a decent amount of refineries and of course offshore wells. I used to look out my office window in Carpenteria and see a ton of platforms out in the ocean.

[Doc]

The 69,000 new jobs in the month of May was LESS THAN HALF of what economists expected. I'll say that again, LESS THAN HALF!

 

And there was a financial bloodbath on Wall Street as a result.

 

I fully expect that by November the national economic numbers will be even worse than they are now.

 

Obama can only stand back and watch. There's nothing he can do!

 

Romney wins in a landslide.

I agree. The economy isn't improving anytime soon.

[/dev/null]

From Green Shoots®, to The Summery of Recovery®, to The Summer of Recovery 2.0®, to this years Summer of Stagflation

 

It will feel like treading water. Good news will be replaced by Less Bad news.

 

Obama and the DNC will complete their transformation from Hope & Change® to W's 2004 Red State/Blue State strategery. In '04 part of Bush's narrative was about changing horses in the middle of a stream. Iraq wasn't going well and his argument was that a change in leadership might make matters worse. Similarly, Obama & crew will make the argument that we are in the middle of an economic crisis and changing leadership would be too much of a shock to the system.

 

The Fed© will do what they can to prop up their house of cards. There won't be another round of QE and Operation Twist will not be extended. Don't misunderstand me, there will be another round of printing money and expanding their assets. But they will come up with some new sanitized term that people don't understand and sounds like this the solution the really smrt people should have come up with all along

Edited June 3, 2012 by /dev/null

[Doc]

From Green Shoots®, to The Summery of Recovery®, to The Summer of Recovery 2.0®, to this years Summer of Stagflation

 

It will feel like treading water. Good news will be replaced by Less Bad news.

 

Obama and the DNC will complete their transformation from Hope & Change® to W's 2004 Red State/Blue State strategery. In '04 part of Bush's narrative was about changing horses in the middle of a stream. Iraq wasn't going well and his argument was that a change in leadership might make matters worse. Similarly, Obama & crew will make the argument that we are in the middle of an economic crisis and changing leadership would be too much of a shock to the system.

 

The Fed© will do what they can to prop up their house of cards. There won't be another round of QE and Operation Twist will not be extended. Don't misunderstand me, there will be another round of printing money and expanding their assets. But they will come up with some new sanitized term that people don't understand and sounds like this the solution the really smrt people should have come up with all along

The problem with that tack is that we were forced to change horses mid-stream in 2008, and things got worse under Barry. And Romney actually has business experience, unlike Barry.

[Nanker]

I heard that contractors on federally funded projects report the number of "jobs" as the number of people they have working on each project. Ergo, if they're working on two projects and have 50 people working on both sites - the government reports 100 jobs.

They'll be reporting hand and blow jobs are real jobs soon.

[WorldTraveller]

Economy looks like its getting weaker

[fjl2nd]

Economy looks like its getting weaker

 

And Obama's poll numbers are getting better. Quite odd.

[3rdnlng]

And Obama's poll numbers are getting better. Quite odd.

 

 

A little advice---watch who you quote, or in this instance, don't quote.

[WorldTraveller]

And Obama's poll numbers are getting better. Quite odd.

Actually, aside from the outlier, they aren't.

[IDBillzFan]

And Obama's poll numbers are getting better. Quite odd.

If by "getting better" you mean that Gallup has Obama falling to 43% approval today and more than 60% of the US believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, then yes...it's getting much better.

Edited June 22, 2012 by LABillzFan

[fjl2nd]

Settle down children.

 

I saw the Pew poll out today with Obama up 50-46. I didn't realize he was up by a bigger margin last month.

 

While we are on the topic of the election, anyone up for some sig/avatar bets on the election? Or should I create another thread to ask. Step up to the plate!

Edited June 22, 2012 by fjl2nd

[IDBillzFan]

Settle down children.

 

I saw the Pew poll out today with Obama up 50-46. I didn't realize he was up by a bigger margin last month.

Chin up, Sparky. There's always a chance SCOTUS will overturn all of ACA next week so people stop paying attention to Fast and Furious.

[fjl2nd]

Chin up, Sparky. There's always a chance SCOTUS will overturn all of ACA next week so people stop paying attention to Fast and Furious.

 

And tons of people lose their coverage and dropped and people start to rethink the whole Obamacare thing.

 

That being overturned isn't as big as a political win as you think it is.

[UConn James]

I've heard economists saying that starting in the 4th quarter and through next year, growth will be 1.75%

 

(And just to add... right now as we still have 8.2% unemployment as a lowball, the jobs #s are anemic and not even treading water wrt the Mendoza Line, and some are talking about sliding back into recession, growth is 2%.)

 

No one who is anyone wants to do anything as long as the Current Occupant is putting forth the liberal utopia agenda and increasing the cost of being in business.