mjt328 Posted May 22, 2012 Posted May 22, 2012 (edited) I've broken down the Bills schedule several times. If the team completely underachieves and doesn't improve much from last season, I think we should STILL at least be heavy favorites to win 6 games: - Kansas City (home), Cleveland (road), Miami (home), Indianapolis (road), Jacksonville (home) and St. Louis (home) I also believe the following 5 games are also VERY winnable: - Arizona (road), Tennessee (home), Seattle (home), Miami (road), New York Jets (home) This is the easiest schedule our team has had in years. I think an 11-5 record is certainly attainable... even if we are only marginally better from last season. Now, if you go strictly by potential playoff spots: > New England has to be the favorite to win the AFC East > Houston should be the favorite to repeat in the AFC South, especially with Shaub and AJohnson coming back from injury > Denver will likely win the AFC West now that it has Peyton Manning. > In the AFC North, it's usually a dog fight between Pittsburgh and Baltimore. But personally, I think Baltimore is going to fall-off big time this season. Terrell Suggs might be gone for the season. Ed Reed is threatening to retire. Ray Rice is threatening to hold out (which almost always results in injury). Ray Lewis is another year older. The whole team has to feel a let-down after that crushing loss in the AFC Championship. So I'm sticking with Pittsburgh. For the remaining wild cards, I think it will come down to 5 teams. And I like our talent better than all of them: Buffalo New York Jets Cincinnati San Diego Kansas City Edited May 22, 2012 by mjt328
Ennjay Posted May 22, 2012 Posted May 22, 2012 really goin out on a limb there Yeah well . . . just don't quote me.
San Jose Bills Fan Posted May 23, 2012 Posted May 23, 2012 (edited) Yup, all those teams could be in the mix, plus the Jets and maybe SD. Can't count out KC rebounding this year either. It's going to be a very tough fight. It will be a tough fight but it is every year. Over the last 16 years, there has been significant turnover among playoff teams with 50% of playoff teams not making the playoffs the following year. The below article is from September of last year so it doesn't cover the 2011 season but again, of the 12 playoff teams in 2010, only 6 of those ended up making the playoffs in 2011. Making the playoffs both years were New Orleans, Green Bay, Atlanta, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and the Cheatriots***. 2010 playoff teams Seattle, Philly, Chicago, the Jets, Colts and Chiefs failed to repeat and were replaced by Detroit, the Giants, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Houston, and Denver. "In every year since 1996, at least five of the teams that made the playoffs the prior year ended up on the outside looking in." http://profootballta...ayoff-turnover/ Edited May 23, 2012 by San Jose Bills Fan
judman Posted May 23, 2012 Posted May 23, 2012 Week 17: Bills, Browns, Chiefs, and Jags locked in with the Raiders and Bengals sure bets for the wild card spots. The Pats have been out since a week 10 injury to Brady during the Buffalo game which all but sealed the deal for their disappointing 3-win season. Hey, a guy can dream, right?
ny33 Posted May 23, 2012 Posted May 23, 2012 Could Pittsburgh be evolving back to a rebuilding team? Does T Suggs injury--along with an aging Lewis mean Baltimore's demise? Houston Texans? Broncos with Payton? Cinnci? Patriots? Keep in mind that we'd be replacing a wild card or the Patriots. Buffalo can't just take the spot of Denver or Houston, for example. In order to make the playoffs, we need 10 wins and a strong showing against our division rivals and other AFC teams. Hopefully the AFC North teams struggle outside of their division, with two of them struggling to get 9 wins. I say we replace the Patriots. Why not? Our offense will struggle.
ny33 Posted May 23, 2012 Posted May 23, 2012 My money is on the Broncos. We can't just replace the Broncos, given that they were a division winner...
CardinalScotts Posted May 23, 2012 Posted May 23, 2012 every year some playoff teams change every single year
Dragonborn10 Posted May 23, 2012 Posted May 23, 2012 With tie-breakers, I think they need to go 5-1 in the division and the Kansas City game is almost a must win. If they lose to KC and Cleveland even with a win over the Jets, we may as well start the Matt Barkley watch by Sept 24th.
Buffalo Barbarian Posted May 23, 2012 Posted May 23, 2012 Could Pittsburgh be evolving back to a rebuilding team? Does T Suggs injury--along with an aging Lewis mean Baltimore's demise? Houston Texans? Broncos with Payton? Cinnci? Patriots? I think Pittsburgh could be out, New OC, new O-line and even older D. Also want o sound off on what a horrible pick they made with LB Sean Spence was for them, He is a good LB but NOT in a 34 at 5'11" 231. I don't know what they were thinking but no way can he take on O-lineman at the inside LB position that is required of a 34 backer.
eball Posted May 23, 2012 Posted May 23, 2012 As I said earlier, if we acknowledge a division championship is unlikely (the Pats* schedule is too damned easy), this is all about beating out the Jets, and finishing better than the 3rd place team in the North. Why? Because the 2nd place team in the South will be horrible (Ten, Jax, Indy), and the West plays a very tough schedule so I'm predicting the champ of that division will only have 10 wins. So...if the Bills can get to 10 wins, and that includes finishing higher than the Jets, they only need to hope the 3rd place finisher in the North is 9-7 or worse because they won't have competition from the other two divisions (probably).
CSBill Posted May 23, 2012 Posted May 23, 2012 Posted Yesterday, 05:53 PM ... Ennjay, on 22 May 2012 - 04:44 PM, said: Since Denver made it as a division winner, it won't be Denver's slot. If the Broncos don't win the AFC West someone else will. It's either a wild card slot (think: Pittsburgh or Cinci or Balt steps down, and out of the playoffs) or winning the division outright. Pittsburgh looks like it's weakening but the Steelers always come up with something to stay good. I predict Baltimore will struggle because Flacco hasn't convinced me, but above all I have faith in Cinci to screw up. Dalton will fall off in his second year. I'm also optimistic about our chances in the AFC East, but predicting it . . . . I dunno. Feels like too much to swallow in May. This This 2.0
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 23, 2012 Posted May 23, 2012 I've broken down the Bills schedule several times. If the team completely underachieves and doesn't improve much from last season, I think we should STILL at least be heavy favorites to win 6 games: - Kansas City (home), Cleveland (road), Miami (home), Indianapolis (road), Jacksonville (home) and St. Louis (home) I also believe the following 5 games are also VERY winnable: - Arizona (road), Tennessee (home), Seattle (home), Miami (road), New York Jets (home) This is the easiest schedule our team has had in years. I think an 11-5 record is certainly attainable... even if we are only marginally better from last season. If we haven't improved to where we at least split the division games, we likely won't make the playoffs - or won't get very far if we do.
Bills!Win! Posted May 23, 2012 Posted May 23, 2012 I say we replace the Patriots. Why not? You're right. They do have the tendency to lose to the worst teams. Also remember this, since we have an easy schedule, that means the rest of the AFC East does as well.
KD in CA Posted May 23, 2012 Posted May 23, 2012 As I said earlier, if we acknowledge a division championship is unlikely (the Pats* schedule is too damned easy), this is all about beating out the Jets, and finishing better than the 3rd place team in the North. Why? Because the 2nd place team in the South will be horrible (Ten, Jax, Indy), and the West plays a very tough schedule so I'm predicting the champ of that division will only have 10 wins. So...if the Bills can get to 10 wins, and that includes finishing higher than the Jets, they only need to hope the 3rd place finisher in the North is 9-7 or worse because they won't have competition from the other two divisions (probably). Yup. The Jets have owned and mostly dominated the Bills over the past four years, so until they prove they can beat them, the rest is just noise.
Gugny Posted May 23, 2012 Posted May 23, 2012 I've got this weird feeling that the Broncos are going to be one of the worst teams in the NFL this year. I've got the same feeling. Maybe not one of the worst, but not a playoff team. The argument that Manning did wonders in Indy with a crappy defense doesn't hold water with me, primiarily because chemistry was a big reason for the success on offense (in my opinion, of course). Manning is an awesome QB ... don't get me wrong. But he's still, what, 36-years-old? Coming off of a year off due to a neck injury. I think the odds are against him. He's human. He's past his prime with a team full of players he's never played with before on a team he's never played for before. Just too many things saying this isn't going to work.
Ramius Posted May 23, 2012 Posted May 23, 2012 It looks to me like Buffalo is going to have a hard time making the playoffs this year. I'd bet Nix and Gailey are thinking that they more or less have to win the division to get in. Sure, if they don't win the division they could still make the playoffs as a wildcard, but the only sure way of going is by winning the division, and everything they've done this offseason shows they are trying to win now - and they're building a team very similar to the Giants teams that have been able to handle the Patriots, at least defensively. If they don't win the division it likely means they're finishing with a record somewhere under 12 wins. Best case scenario there, 11 wins, would probably make the playoffs as a wildcard, but... consider these teams: Steelers, Bengals, Ravens, Chargers, and Broncos. There's a good chance all of those teams finish around 10 or 11 wins. My point is this - we're trying to win the division, and if we fail, it'll fall to luck and our record to get us in as a wildcard. The Steelers, Ravens, and Bengals all will beat on each other throughout the year. no way do all 3 teams in that division finish with 10 wins.
Recommended Posts