ganesh Posted June 7, 2012 Posted June 7, 2012 But most importantly: props to ALL us Bills fans. We're having a very nuanced debate...about our punter. Ever question whether or not we care? Me neither! Exactly! After all he has been the team MVP for the decade....It is actually refreshing to find the punter as the weakest link of the team (NOw....I am not saying that....But Just Saying that....)
The Big Cat Posted June 7, 2012 Posted June 7, 2012 Well, enlighten me oh holy one on how this is so monumentally flawed? Because what I am saying seems like a simple premise: The average punt goes roughly 45 yards 45 yards away from goal-line is opp 45, 45 yards from the 20 is the own 35 For a generality sake, I say that most punts inside the 20 are from in between the 40's, which accounts for the ones just outside of FG range Punters that have a high percentage of their punts inside the 20 as a result of the offensive drive dying out between the 40's at a higher than normal frequency. So where in this am I wrong? If a punter's inside the 20 opportunities are limited because of field position, as you've argued, then let's look at the circumstances that would be unfavorable to getting the ball inside the opponent's 20 yard line. Since the majority of games are played before the bad winter weather truly begins, or inside a dome, or in non-inclement conditions, let's assume a level playing field for all punters, during the duration of the season. Since just about every professional punter CAN boot the ball about 70 yards, or about 55 yards before out-kicking the coverage, let's also assume that for a punt to travel inside the 20--let's just put it at the 19 yard line--and for the ball to stay there, either because of directional kicking or a fair catch, a severe drop off in punts inside the 20 will occur when the line of scrimmage is 55 yards or more from the 19 yard line. That means the "stalled-drive redzone" for unfavorable field position when trying to kick inside the 20 would then exist inside your own 26 yard line. Now let's see how often that would occur: Drives rarely stall inside the opponent's 30. If you make it that far, you're most likely kicking a field goal. The vast majority of drives start at our outside your own 20. So, for assumption sake, the average drive that ENDS IN A PUNT starts and stops within a 50 yard span of the field (20-30). MOST drives don't end in 3 and out. So, if most drives gain at least 10 yards and most drives start at or around the 20 yard line, that means that most drives stall somewhere between the 30's, or outside the stalled-drive-redzone. Since the majority of drives end in this 40 yard span, and since the majority of professional punters are capable of putting the ball well inside the opponent's 20 yard line (whether or not it stays there is what's at question), then THE MAJORITY OF PUNTS CREATE THE CONDITIONS WHEREIN A PUNTER SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUT THE BALL INSIDE THE 20 YARD LINE. It is far less likely that a punter is punting from an area of the field wherein he'd be INCAPABLE of pinning an opponent inside the 20, so to cling to those rarest of circumstances as the outlying factor rendering the inside-the-20 stat bunk, is...well BUNK.
Billsrhody Posted June 7, 2012 Posted June 7, 2012 (edited) Drives rarely stall inside the opponent's 30. If you make it that far, you're most likely kicking a field goal. The vast majority of drives start at our outside your own 20. So, for assumption sake, the average drive that ENDS IN A PUNT starts and stops within a 50 yard span of the field (20-30). MOST drives don't end in 3 and out. So, if most drives gain at least 10 yards and most drives start at or around the 20 yard line, that means that most drives stall somewhere between the 30's, or outside the stalled-drive-redzone. I disagree with this.. not sure what you're calling "most" but unless you have some facts to back that up I dont think you can generalize that most drives dont end in a 3 and out. Ok so I found this which might help you put some numbers behind your argument: Three and Outs Essentially the best team defenses forces a 3 and out 32% of the time, the worst forces it 17% of the time. So I'd say 25% is a fair assumption for how often a team goes 3 and out. Edited June 7, 2012 by Billsrhody
The Big Cat Posted June 7, 2012 Posted June 7, 2012 (edited) I disagree with this.. not sure what you're calling "most" but unless you have some facts to back that up I dont think you can generalize that most drives dont end in a 3 and out. That's fine. It's not an opinion thing, so there's nothing to disagree with. One of us is right, one of us is wrong, and I assumed. And I standby my assumption: at least 51% of the time, the offense earns at least one first down. EDIT: These stats verify my assumption. Edited June 7, 2012 by The Big Cat
Billsrhody Posted June 7, 2012 Posted June 7, 2012 That's fine. It's not an opinion thing, so there's nothing to disagree with. One of us is right, one of us is wrong, and I assumed. And I standby my assumption: at least 51% of the time, the offense earns at least one first down. EDIT: These stats verify my assumption. Also, its fair to say that most punters can kick the ball 55 yards, but if you're kicking the ball that far, then you are not getting a fair catch. And if you're not getting a fair catch, then the average returner is going to bring the ball back another 10 yards. Its unreasonable to expect a punter to get an "inside the 20" punt if they are punting inside of their own 40 yd line.
OhiosGJ Posted June 7, 2012 Posted June 7, 2012 Time for a change... maybe Moorman has been the curse all these years?
The Big Cat Posted June 7, 2012 Posted June 7, 2012 Also, its fair to say that most punters can kick the ball 55 yards, but if you're kicking the ball that far, then you are not getting a fair catch. And if you're not getting a fair catch, then the average returner is going to bring the ball back another 10 yards. Its unreasonable to expect a punter to get an "inside the 20" punt if they are punting inside of their own 40 yd line. That's a fair point. Also, its fair to say that most punters can kick the ball 55 yards, but if you're kicking the ball that far, then you are not getting a fair catch. And if you're not getting a fair catch, then the average returner is going to bring the ball back another 10 yards. Its unreasonable to expect a punter to get an "inside the 20" punt if they are punting inside of their own 40 yd line. If we all agree that most punt-ending drives stall between the 40's, then we all agree that punts inside the 20 is a veritable stat.
Billsrhody Posted June 7, 2012 Posted June 7, 2012 If we all agree that most punt-ending drives stall between the 40's, then we all agree that punts inside the 20 is a veritable stat. I'm with you there
The Big Cat Posted June 7, 2012 Posted June 7, 2012 I'm with you there Hahahaha!! Then feel free to ignore all the mind-numbing minutia that validates that point! That information is meant for others.
Billsrhody Posted June 7, 2012 Posted June 7, 2012 Hahahaha!! Then feel free to ignore all the mind-numbing minutia that validates that point! That information is meant for others. haha I cant help but get sucked in to punting arguments!
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted August 26, 2012 Posted August 26, 2012 i put powell beating moorman at less than 10% with punters and kickers, you go with who you know. Bump. I feel like I got blasted for making this argument. Any Powell "fans" still think he's going to beat Moorman? It wasn't even a fair or open competition; Moorman was a lock before training camp.
Doc Posted August 26, 2012 Posted August 26, 2012 Bump. I feel like I got blasted for making this argument. Any Powell "fans" still think he's going to beat Moorman? It wasn't even a fair or open competition; Moorman was a lock before training camp. I thought Powell had a good chance because Moorman looked to be succumbing to age. However he's kicking as well as, if not better than, ever. He keeps the job.
ExWNYer Posted August 26, 2012 Posted August 26, 2012 Bump. I feel like I got blasted for making this argument. Any Powell "fans" still think he's going to beat Moorman? It wasn't even a fair or open competition; Moorman was a lock before training camp. After last night, there's no doubt that Moorman is the Bills' punter. Nice knowin' you, Powell...good luck in your future endeavors.
Green Lightning Posted August 26, 2012 Posted August 26, 2012 (edited) Moorman has been amazing all Spring and last night he was even better. Tremendous punter and athlete. Edited August 26, 2012 by Green Lightning
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted August 26, 2012 Posted August 26, 2012 As much as I thought the Powell signing was a "non-signing," I wonder if it was a great kick in the pants to Moorman. Gave him the edge he needed to come out at the top of his game.
The Senator Posted August 26, 2012 Posted August 26, 2012 Moorman is kicking as well as ever and he's obviously the Bills punter in 2012, but he'll be a 37-year-old free agent next year. Ergo, I can still see the Bills hiding Powell on the practice squad for the future - and also in case anything happens to our 36-year-old punter during the season.
Doc Posted August 26, 2012 Posted August 26, 2012 While Powell probably won't make the team, Potter certainly should. He's KO'd 8 times and had touchbacks on all of them. However I hope they put Powell on the PS because Moorman won't play forever and Powell has potential.
Punch Posted August 26, 2012 Posted August 26, 2012 As much as I thought the Powell signing was a "non-signing," I wonder if it was a great kick in the pants to Moorman. Gave him the edge he needed to come out at the top of his game. You shouldn't get blasted for the suggestion, because it was a perfectly reasonable assessment. This post is very likely accurate as well.
Coach Tuesday Posted August 26, 2012 Posted August 26, 2012 Moorman is kicking as well as ever and he's obviously the Bills punter in 2012, but he'll be a 37-year-old free agent next year. Ergo, I can still see the Bills hiding Powell on the practice squad for the future - and also in case anything happens to our 36-year-old punter during the season. I could be wrong, but I don't know if you see too many punters on practice squads - it's just not a position you need a practice player for during the week...
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