Romney support among independents taking a hit

[3rdnlng]

The sad fact is that electing a president is a matter of choosing the lesser of two evils. A 3rd party candidate won't be winning the presidency anytime soon.

 

 

Oh, but Alderman so and so would make such a great president!

[Magox]

So out of the last 10 polls released, Romney is up anywhere from 5 to 13 points with independents, with the FOX poll registering with the lowest. So, probably Romney is up somewhere between 7-10 points with independents, and the undecided independents tend to break away from the incumbent, so I'd say Romney is doing much better than what many would of expected this soon after the bruising primaries.

 

Also, new polls that came out yesterday show Romney and Obama tied in Wisconsin (appears Walker recall is really helping ROmney out) and ROmney up 8 in North Carolina.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

 

N.C is most likely gonna switch back to the GOP unless the economy really improves from here and Wisconsin is the shocker.

 

Even a PPP/Daily Kos poll that was just taken this week shows Romney only down one, and the PPP polls have historically favored Democrats by a to 3-5% average and in some cases much more than that. It appears that Romney can make a real race out of WIsconsin, Bush only lost it by .5% and they did win an overwhelming amount of seats in the 2010 election, and by all accounts, Walker is going to spank Barret. If Romney were to win Wisconsin, his path to victory becomes considerably easier.

 

I also saw a poll released showing Romney down in Michigan by only 5, I don't believe he'll win it, but if he does, then without a doubt Romney becomes the next president, and the surprisngly close distance between the two in the Michigan race probably means that Obama wll have to expend more resources than he wanted to here.

 

I always felt that ROmney would win over he independents, but at one point during the primaries he was losing independents by an average of 5-7%, now he's up an average of 7-10%. That is a remarkable turnaround of 12-15% in just a period of 6 weeks. I suspect this trend will continue, unless the economy markedly improves. My guess is that ROmney will win the independent vote by the time its all said and done by around 10-15%.

 

Another point that I'd like to make, I predicted that Romney would run a much better general election campaign because this would be closer to his natural core. So far that has been the case, they have put the Obama administration on the defensive,they have been punching back, it's been quite impressive. I am very impressed with the campaign that they have been running so far. To be winning the independents by this margin in such a short time period is a sign of the anxiety independents feel about Obama.

[dayman]

So out of the last 10 polls released, Romney is up anywhere from 5 to 13 points with independents, with the FOX poll registering with the lowest. So, probably Romney is up somewhere between 7-10 points with independents, and the undecided independents tend to break away from the incumbent, so I'd say Romney is doing much better than what many would of expected this soon after the bruising primaries.

 

Also, new polls that came out yesterday show Romney and Obama tied in Wisconsin (appears Walker recall is really helping ROmney out) and ROmney up 8 in North Carolina.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/

 

N.C is most likely gonna switch back to the GOP unless the economy really improves from here and Wisconsin is the shocker.

 

Even a PPP/Daily Kos poll that was just taken this week shows Romney only down one, and the PPP polls have historically favored Democrats by a to 3-5% average and in some cases much more than that. It appears that Romney can make a real race out of WIsconsin, Bush only lost it by .5% and they did win an overwhelming amount of seats in the 2010 election, and by all accounts, Walker is going to spank Barret. If Romney were to win Wisconsin, his path to victory becomes considerably easier.

 

I also saw a poll released showing Romney down in Michigan by only 5, I don't believe he'll win it, but if he does, then without a doubt Romney becomes the next president, and the surprisngly close distance between the two in the Michigan race probably means that Obama wll have to expend more resources than he wanted to here.

 

I always felt that ROmney would win over he independents, but at one point during the primaries he was losing independents by an average of 5-7%, now he's up an average of 7-10%. That is a remarkable turnaround of 12-15% in just a period of 6 weeks. I suspect this trend will continue, unless the economy markedly improves. My guess is that ROmney will win the independent vote by the time its all said and done by around 10-15%.

 

Another point that I'd like to make, I predicted that Romney would run a much better general election campaign because this would be closer to his natural core. So far that has been the case, they have put the Obama administration on the defensive,they have been punching back, it's been quite impressive. I am very impressed with the campaign that they have been running so far. To be winning the independents by this margin in such a short time period is a sign of the anxiety independents feel about Obama.

 

How do you feel about polls in general, especially this early. I only ask b/c you appear to pay a lot of attention to them based on the post.

[Magox]

How do you feel about polls in general, especially this early. I only ask b/c you appear to pay a lot of attention to them based on the post.

I am a political junkie and policy wonk, so I like keeping up with these sort of things. But yeah, it is a bit early, however I do believe it does reflect the success and/or failures of each election campaign and does guage how each campaign is performing so that they can either continue to keep going along with their present strategy or if that they need to change course.

[dayman]

I am a political junkie and policy wonk, so I like keeping up with these sort of things. But yeah, it is a bit early, however I do believe it does reflect the success and/or failures of each election campaign and does guage how each campaign is performing so that they can either continue to keep going along with their present strategy or if that they need to change course.

 

I mean I agree they can be somewhat useful early, definitely to show if things are going terrible. But all in all like a good driver I'm sure most are concerned about polling the highest on the day of the election. I don't think either campaign cares much about winning the polls today.

 

If anything I think the polls are important to Romney to show it will be tight and to combat the few that still assume Obama will win handily...and to combat the idea that he's a terrible candidate who's own party doesn't even like. Then on the flip side I think Obama could care less about being behind so long as he doesn't fall too far behind. He's saving most of his campaign juice for...the campaign (which even conservatives agree he is good at)...and if anything showing a threat early can help him combat the fall in enthusiasm his political momentum is expected to eat. I mean if I were Romney I would want to be as high as I could right now, and if I were Obama I would want to create a sense of urgency among my supporters and wouldn't mind if that meant a few polls coming in lower than they could have been (for now). Plus one of the big talking points for Romney seems to be that Americans are pissed and hate this President so he sort of needs to poll well comparatively (the entire time)...where as Obama can sort of be presidential and eat a slump for the time being and then hit hard when the time comes.

 

In any event...I agree they aren't totally useless but I really think more than anything else they are more tools of campaigns then they are indicators of campaigns success at this point. The closer to the election the more important they will become IMO.

 

And of course, I have no experience in politics. The one thing I know is if I ran either mans campaign they would lose.

Edited May 17, 2012 by TheNewBills

[IDBillzFan]

You guys are stupid and stupider.

 

http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/145395-obamas-new-campaign-ad/page__view__findpost__p__2453672

 

When someone says your guy is wrong, it doesn't make them liberal. Hard concept to grasp, I know, but it is possible to criticize Romney and not also be a liberal.

 

Good job by Romney for rejecting the ads RE Rev. Wright. Not sure how much control he can exercise over the mud-slinging but the less he does, the better for him. And if Obama starts slinging, it will be hard for him not to sling back.

I recognize that you have a very high opinion of your opinion, but when you see me make fun of "moderate independents," it's not about you.

 

But thanks for calling us stupid again. It means so much to me.

[John Adams]

I recognize that you have a very high opinion of your opinion, but when you see me make fun of "moderate independents," it's not about you.

 

But thanks for calling us stupid again. It means so much to me.

 

Stupid and stupider were Rkfast and Eryn. Stupid.

[Magox]

In the seesaw battle between presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney and President Obama, there’s one surprising and rarely discussed constant — Romney is consistently beating the president among voters who consider themselves independent.

 

That suggests that Romney doesn’t need to pivot dramatically to the center, shed partisan identity or turn his back on the GOP base to gain favor with nonpartisans. He’s already got their tentative but increasingly solidified support.

 

 

According to Talking Points Memo’s poll tracker, there have been 14 major surveys measuring independents’ support over the past two months (excluding the Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling and conservative-leaning Rasmussen Reports).

 

 

In 12 of those 14, Romney has led Obama with the pivotal demographic, and he’s done it by an average of 6.5 percent. That’s not an overwhelming gap, but the consistency of his lead is remarkable, considering that Obama led, overall, in eight of those 14 polls.

 

In the most recent Quinnipiac University poll, only 39 percent of independents approved of the job the president was doing, while 56 percent disapproved. On the economy he fared even more poorly, with 28 percent approving of his job and 67 percent disapproving.

 

 

Further, only 37 percent of independents thought he deserved to be reelected, while 58 percent said he didn’t deserve reelection.

 

 

With those kinds of approval numbers, it’s not surprising, then, that Romney beat Obama with independents on nearly every issue polled. He led by 22 points on the economy, 16 points on creating jobs, 5 points on foreign policy, 10 points on healthcare, 26 points on gas prices, 13 points on taxes, 10 points on healthcare and 15 points on immigration.

 

 

That’s not an election — it’s an ideological route.

 

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/christian-heinze/229009-romney-rocks-the-independent-vote

[Rob's House]

This just reinforces my belief that "independents" are, by and large, wishy-washy simpletons who haven't educated themselves on the issues and go with whoever has a catchy slogan, nice haircut, or who they think they'll be more popular for supporting.

 

Seriously, what logical thought process could lead anyone down this path? The thought process of a moderate: Sure his policies seem better and Obama's really **** the bed, but Romney is being negative, and that makes me sad. I'll take incompetence over a big meanie any day. And I can tell the drones at work, whose approval I desperately seek, that I'm above the fray and I'm just turned off by the negativity. Then I'll splash in a few lines about how they're all the same anyway and, voila, I'm Super Centrist, the most level headed and compromising person you could ever hope to meet. Unlike all these wacky partisans I like a little bit of tyranny, a little bit of liberty, my other penis is a vagina, and my answer to everything depend on how it's polling. And as a bonus I can still show how not racist I am because I support the black guy.

 

These people are why everyone is so adamant about pushing bogus poll numbers. It actually affects their opinion on the issues.

[John Adams]

http://thehill.com/b...ndependent-vote

 

I read the Quinnepac summary this morning. Good news indeed.

 

Romney's high road approach so far has been awesome. I hoe he sticks to it because that's become his theme: "Forget the BS issues. Obama is !@#$ing up the economy."

Edited May 23, 2012 by John Adams

[Doc]

I read the Quinnepac summary this morning. Good news indeed.

 

Romney's high road approach so far has been awesome. I hoe he sticks to it because that's become his theme: "Forget the BS issues. Obama is !@#$ing up the economy."

Yep. As I said, Romney doesn't need to whip out the attack ads because Barry's doing a good enough job sinking his own campaign.

[Magox]

I actually respect the typical "swing voters", they aren't so ideologically driven and will turn out for whoever they believe have the best message. From my perspective, the worst kind of voters are the hard core Right and left wingers, the ones who subscribe to the rigid philosophies endorsed by The Limbaughs and Ed Schultz's of the world.

 

ughhh

 

I read the Quinnepac summary this morning. Good news indeed.

 

Romney's high road approach so far has been awesome. I hoe he sticks to it because that's become his theme: "Forget the BS issues. Obama is !@#$ing up the economy."

Yeah, they've been running a good campaign and today in an interview with Mark Halperin, he went into a little more specifics, which is something that the left have been whining about recently.

 

Halperin: I want to ask you to be just a little bit more specific about that, because again, he said this is like the central way he’s going to run this campaign, to focus on your business career. You said you know how to read a balance sheet. There are a lot of people in America who know how to do that. What would make you qualify to be President – again, specific things you’ve learned, things you know, policies that grow out of your experience at Bain Capital that would lead toward job creation.

 

Romney: Well Mark, let’s be a little more specific as to the area you’d like to suggest. Trade policies? Labor policies? Energy policies? Let’s take energy, for instance. I understand that in some industries, the input cost of energy is a major factor in whether an industry is going to locate in the United States or go elsewhere. So, when at Bain Capital, we started a new steel company called Steel Dynamics in Indiana, the cost of energy was a very important factor to the success of that enterprise. When the President is making it harder to mine coal, to use coal, to take advantage of our gas resources, to make it harder to get our oil resources – all those things combined to make our cost of energy higher than it needs to be, and it drives away enterprises from this country. It sends it to places that have lower-cost energy. I understand the impact of those kinds of factors on job creation. I will have a very different policy. My policy on energy is to take advantage of coal, oil, natural gas, as well as our renewables, and nuclear – make America the largest energy producer in the world. I think we can get there, in 10 or 15 years. That will bring back manufacturing of certain high energy intensive industries. It’ll bring back jobs. It’ll create a surprising economic revitalization of this country.

[Adam]

This just reinforces my belief that "independents" are, by and large, wishy-washy simpletons who haven't educated themselves on the issues and go with whoever has a catchy slogan, nice haircut, or who they think they'll be more popular for supporting.

 

Seriously, what logical thought process could lead anyone down this path? The thought process of a moderate: Sure his policies seem better and Obama's really **** the bed, but Romney is being negative, and that makes me sad. I'll take incompetence over a big meanie any day. And I can tell the drones at work, whose approval I desperately seek, that I'm above the fray and I'm just turned off by the negativity. Then I'll splash in a few lines about how they're all the same anyway and, voila, I'm Super Centrist, the most level headed and compromising person you could ever hope to meet. Unlike all these wacky partisans I like a little bit of tyranny, a little bit of liberty, my other penis is a vagina, and my answer to everything depend on how it's polling. And as a bonus I can still show how not racist I am because I support the black guy.

 

These people are why everyone is so adamant about pushing bogus poll numbers. It actually affects their opinion on the issues.

Maybe some are like that. Personally, I ignore all the polls and will probably start charting all of the candidates about a month before the election- base on their stance on issues, which issues I think they can affect, etc.....Not sure if I will vote for President Obama, Mitt Romney, or someone else. Why anyone would want that office, is beyond me, right now.

[Wisconsin Bills Fan]

Maybe some are like that. Personally, I ignore all the polls and will probably start charting all of the candidates about a month before the election- base on their stance on issues, which issues I think they can affect, etc.....Not sure if I will vote for President Obama, Mitt Romney, or someone else. Why anyone would want that office, is beyond me, right now.

 

How in the hell can you not have your mind made up already? Romney and Obama have much different visions for the direction the country will go. You either like what Obama has done in his first term and want 4 more of the same, or you don't. To echo what Rob was saying, often times independents stand for nothing and fall for everything.

[Rob's House]

Maybe some are like that. Personally, I ignore all the polls and will probably start charting all of the candidates about a month before the election- base on their stance on issues, which issues I think they can affect, etc.....Not sure if I will vote for President Obama, Mitt Romney, or someone else. Why anyone would want that office, is beyond me, right now.

I actually went back and added "by and large" because I thought of you. I know you take a lot of flack around here for fence-sitting, but unlike the people I described, I see you more as someone focused on issues and trying to weigh both sides of the argument. I see them as intellectually lazy and disinterested but still wanting to feel like their opinions matter.

[B-Large]

The slinging has already started, JA. Look at the report about Romney's hijinks in prep school.

 

 

I'd love to see a 3rd Party candidate come in a really push these established political parties. Someone who ran on real reforms, changes to the Quo, someone who did not attack the others on peripheral issues, but instead sold their plan for the country. I can't stand to see the ads already, it is only May, and it will only get worse.

[Adam]

How in the hell can you not have your mind made up already? Romney and Obama have much different visions for the direction the country will go. You either like what Obama has done in his first term and want 4 more of the same, or you don't. To echo what Rob was saying, often times independents stand for nothing and fall for everything.

Well, it would be easy to go through the process and decide right now, if there really was two people on the ballot. Lets see where the country is close to November, how much President Obama had to do with it, and how I think the other candidates solutions would work differently. Besides, I am more focused on my impending vacation right now!!

 

I actually went back and added "by and large" because I thought of you. I know you take a lot of flack around here for fence-sitting, but unlike the people I described, I see you more as someone focused on issues and trying to weigh both sides of the argument. I see them as intellectually lazy and disinterested but still wanting to feel like their opinions matter.

I appreciate it. As I stated previously, it irritates me that so many ideas are labeled liberal or conservative now. There was always a level of partisanship in the country, but in the past, our leaders would use any idea that would work. Problem right now is that the partisanship has reached a level that is causing gridlock AND we are facing unprecedented problems, which are difficult to fix.

Edited May 23, 2012 by Adam

[fjl2nd]

How in the hell can you not have your mind made up already? Romney and Obama have much different visions for the direction the country will go. You either like what Obama has done in his first term and want 4 more of the same, or you don't. To echo what Rob was saying, often times independents stand for nothing and fall for everything.

 

I'm still not sure what Romney's vision really is. Vote for him and the economy just gets fixed?

[OCinBuffalo]

I'm still not sure what Romney's vision really is. Vote for him and the economy just gets fixed?

Hmmm. Did you miss Magox's post? It's only 5-6 above this one.

 

Sounds like specifically, and more importantly genuinely, pursuing an aggressive, "everything" energy policy will specifically help high energy use companies to specifically keep their jobs here....is Romney's vision.

 

I wonder why Halperen didn't bother to ask Romney about Labor and Trade? Could it be that he didn't want to give Romney another 2 easy ones?

 

Also: notice Romney is talking in terms of 10 years...not promising that Green Jobs will solve all our problems in less than three?

 

I know who Romney is: he's not the clown that makes ridiculous promises, and tries to keep them by trading the cow for magic beans. (Yeah, 2nd time I've used that...but, it's perfect for this)

 

Romney was originally a consultant. That means he doesn't care nearly as much about promises, as he does about results.

Edited May 24, 2012 by OCinBuffalo

[Nanker]

I'm still not sure what Romney's vision really is. Vote for him and the economy just gets fixed?

Well for starters, he's not buying what BO's selling - which is debt slavery.

Yes, he understands how the economy works and is results-driven. That's in start contrast to BO.

He believes in personal freedom, liberty, and accountability in stark contrast to BO who thinks government's role is to coercively take from some and hand it back out to others.

He thinks government should as much as possible get out of the way of those who want to pursue their economic dreams.

BO wants to anesthetize the world into having no dreams of individual success and replace those with a mindless dependency on the money drug that the big government pusher passes out.