OCinBuffalo Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 (edited) Yeah, because those aren't in play every Presidential election........... Indiana is usually a red state through and through until Obama in 08. North Carolina and Virginia as well. Wisconsin is now tied...and the Walker recall FAIL could put Obama down 4-5 points. Nice work, guys. When is the last time a Republican won Wisconsin? 1984. When he won every state but Minnesota. But yeah..."nothing to see here, Romney has a narrow electoral scenario, if he isn't already demographically done" blah, blah blah blah... If Obama can lose Wisconsin.... he can lose Iowa and Minnesota too. Now the wishful thinking is in full force. We will have to endure it, until the hysterical, not bitter, end. Edit: and this was before I looked at the RCP electoral map today.... See Michigan? Yeah...today is the first day it has been greyed. It was blue or light blue since the inauguration. This is really amazing. When I first started checking this thing....it was Obama 292...vs ? 120 with tossups. Now? It's down to Obama 227. When was the last time that MI, IA, WI were all grey at the same time? Not during the Bush or Clinton years. Again, we have to go back to Reagan. Welcome to the Obama campaign....where Jimmy Carter's electoral position is preferable, because Walter Mondale's is possible Now, leftists...take a look at that map, click on it again. "See Larry? This is what happens, Larry. This is what happens when you let a stranger represent your ass." Still think "When you want something done right, put the far left in charge of doing the opposite" is wrong? How about now? Edited May 23, 2012 by OCinBuffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Man Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Electoral implications of the Obama Administration’s War on Coal. Will this be the 2012 election map? If the Obama administration keeps up their War on Coal (literally: they consider coal more dangerous than terrorism), quite possibly. And it may be at least partially because of coal. The basic framework for this argument is this map, …which shows the top sixteen coal-producing states in the USA. There’s a total of 182 Electoral Votes at stake, there – and in 2008 there were 180. Obama actually won coal-producing states in 2008, 100 to 80; and if no states flip in November, he’ll win them, 96 to 86. Except that… states are going to flip. Indiana’s already gone; and of the remaining six Obama states only New Mexico and Illinois are not considered toss-ups. The administration’s relentless hostility towards coal production and use may have already contributed to Democratic electoral disaster: since Obama took office the state governments and legislatures of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia have all been taken over by Republicans; in Colorado we flipped the House of Representatives; and in New Mexico we captured the governorship. Heck, we even gained seats in the Illinois legislature, and came very close to winning the governorship. The question is, is it fair to wonder whether coal will make things worse for the Democrats? I think so. In Virginia they’re worried about new EPA regulations on air quality. In Colorado people are noticing that President Obama and EPA chief Lisa Jackson are fighting the United Mine Workers. Pennsylvanian Republicans are already campaigning on the issue; so are Ohioan Republicans. All in all, this combination of stubborn refusal to budge from a radical Green agenda + an economy that can pretty specifically not support the inefficient luxury of a radical Green agenda = increased risk in a variety of Obama ’08 states. Red State . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fjl2nd Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Wisconsin is now tied...and the Walker recall FAIL could put Obama down 4-5 points. Nice work, guys. When is the last time a Republican won Wisconsin? 1984. When he won every state but Minnesota. But yeah..."nothing to see here, Romney has a narrow electoral scenario, if he isn't already demographically done" blah, blah blah blah... If Obama can lose Wisconsin.... he can lose Iowa and Minnesota too. Now the wishful thinking is in full force. We will have to endure it, until the hysterical, not bitter, end. Edit: and this was before I looked at the RCP electoral map today.... See Michigan? Yeah...today is the first day it has been greyed. It was blue or light blue since the inauguration. This is really amazing. When I first started checking this thing....it was Obama 292...vs ? 120 with tossups. Now? It's down to Obama 227. When was the last time that MI, IA, WI were all grey at the same time? Not during the Bush or Clinton years. Again, we have to go back to Reagan. Welcome to the Obama campaign....where Jimmy Carter's electoral position is preferable, because Walter Mondale's is possible Now, leftists...take a look at that map, click on it again. "See Larry? This is what happens, Larry. This is what happens when you let a stranger represent your ass." Still think "When you want something done right, put the far left in charge of doing the opposite" is wrong? How about now? I don't know why they have Michigan in the toss-up category. If you click on the polling, it is Obama +5. Iowa is definitely in play, not so sure about Wisconsin but it is possible. The problem I see for Romney is he has to win Florida no matter what. There are almost no paths to victory without it. Look how red this map is, and Romney still loses because he lost Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 I don't know why they have Michigan in the toss-up category. If you click on the polling, it is Obama +5. Iowa is definitely in play, not so sure about Wisconsin but it is possible. The problem I see for Romney is he has to win Florida no matter what. There are almost no paths to victory without it. Look how red this map is, and Romney still loses because he lost Florida. I pretty much check that 3 times a week. I only noticed it today because of the >> next to Michigan. That's because I never even look at Michigan, because it's been blue since forever. I think that >> means they flipped it recently. There must be a reason, and yeah, I clicked on it to see the polls too. I dunno, but it's not like RCP is partisan. There has to be a good reason they would move MI. Well, that's like saying Obama loses if he doesn't keep PA. There are 0 paths to victory without it...including Obama winning Florida. Check it out: Obama: FL, NV, NM, MI, WI, IA = 268 Romney: PA, IN, OH, NH, VA, NC, CO = 270 Suddenly that coal state thing that B-Man is talking about doesn't look that off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fjl2nd Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 I pretty much check that 3 times a week. I only noticed it today because of the >> next to Michigan. That's because I never even look at Michigan, because it's been blue since forever. I think that >> means they flipped it recently. There must be a reason, and yeah, I clicked on it to see the polls too. I dunno, but it's not like RCP is partisan. There has to be a good reason they would move MI. Well, that's like saying Obama loses if he doesn't keep PA. There are 0 paths to victory without it...including Obama winning Florida. Check it out: Obama: FL, NV, NM, MI, WI, IA = 268 Romney: PA, IN, OH, NH, VA, NC, CO = 270 Suddenly that coal state thing that B-Man is talking about doesn't look that off. Pennsylvania of course is huge, but I think Obama holds on there. There is a better shot of Obama winning Florida than Romney winning Pennsylvania IMO. A lot of the state polls on RCP are a little outdated. I think we could see some shifts in the swing states towards Romney more in the coming polls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Pennsylvania of course is huge, but I think Obama holds on there. There is a better shot of Obama winning Florida than Romney winning Pennsylvania IMO. A lot of the state polls on RCP are a little outdated. I think we could see some shifts in the swing states towards Romney more in the coming polls. Given that we are this far out, and there are this many swing states defined as such? Yeah, I'd say it's pretty safe to say that a lot of them will be moving towards Romney. If you pay attention to Dick Morris, he thinks that it will be a Romney blow out. His reasoning is simple: if you ask someone "will you be married to your spouse in November?" and they say they're undecided...then the real answer is no. The number of undecided is probably why MI is now grey, rather than the differential. Just a theory: a significant # of undecided are made up of Obama voters with buyer's remorse....that don't want to tell some stranger on a phone that they made a mistake. Saying Undecided is easier. However, per Morris, nobody will be looking when they pull the lever in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fjl2nd Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Given that we are this far out, and there are this many swing states defined as such? Yeah, I'd say it's pretty safe to say that a lot of them will be moving towards Romney. If you pay attention to Dick Morris, he thinks that it will be a Romney blow out. His reasoning is simple: if you ask someone "will you be married to your spouse in November?" and they say they're undecided...then the real answer is no. The number of undecided is probably why MI is now grey, rather than the differential. Just a theory: a significant # of undecided are made up of Obama voters with buyer's remorse....that don't want to tell some stranger on a phone that they made a mistake. Saying Undecided is easier. However, per Morris, nobody will be looking when they pull the lever in November. No way this election becomes a blowout unless a big economic downturn hits. IF Romney wins, it will be by a very close margin. I'd like to see what Obama/McCain were looking like at this point or even Bush/Kerry. A lot of things can happen from now until November. I just can't see a blowout happening either way. Obama is still ahead in the general national poll. I'll put it at 60% chance Obama wins. Some Democrats need to stop acting like the election is in the bag already - it's far from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 (edited) No way this election becomes a blowout unless a big economic downturn hits. IF Romney wins, it will be by a very close margin. I'd like to see what Obama/McCain were looking like at this point or even Bush/Kerry. That's the suck part of these maps. You can't see what they had 2 months ago, short of a screen cap and a save, etc. It's not like it would be that hard to do history on this. A lot of things can happen from now until November. I just can't see a blowout happening either way. Obama is still ahead in the general national poll. I'll put it at 60% chance Obama wins. Some Democrats need to stop acting like the election is in the bag already - it's far from it. Oh absolutely. I am sure there is some October surprise waiting. Someone in the media will be unable to resist the combination of wishful thinking and "doing their duty for the cause"...and their career will be over soon after. Yep. There's no doubt that Dan Rather's example will be ignored. The temptation to be "the guy that killed Romney" will make somebody try to fill that inside straight with 2 cards left in the deck. Love those guys. Have paid for entire weekends on those guys. 60%? That's where the Intrade money is right now. I'd say that's about right. But, its a very weak 60. I'd say that Romney can knock that down to 52 with ease. It's the last 2-4 points that are going to take the hard digging. Edit: If we were betting football, then the economy is like "Drew Brees is hurt now, but will he come back for the last 6 games, or only the last 2?" Obviously action on the Saints swings wildly due to the answer to that question. However, if the number of undecideds continue to grow? Then forget it. Or, I wouldn't put my money anywhere near Obama if, in September, there are 10+% undecided in states like MI, WI, PA, etc. Edited May 23, 2012 by OCinBuffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nanker Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 But hey, once people find out that Romney slaughtered 150 Americans in the Mountain Meadows Massacre Obama's standing in the polls will skyrocket! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UConn James Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 ♫ Out of the blue and into the gray On RCP, Nevada's now in play. ♫ Also now a tie in Iowa and a toss-up in Colorado and these are NBC/Marist polls.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted June 1, 2012 Share Posted June 1, 2012 ♫ Out of the blue and into the gray On RCP, Nevada's now in play. ♫ Also now a tie in Iowa and a toss-up in Colorado and these are NBC/Marist polls.... Hopefully Barry will burnout AND fade away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UConn James Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 (edited) According to an in-state poll conducted by EPIC, Romney is +1 in Michigan. In their previous polling in April, Obama had been ahead by 4. The RCP electoral college map has now dropped 20 points on Obama in the past week. Link Edited June 8, 2012 by UConn James Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted June 8, 2012 Share Posted June 8, 2012 According to an in-state poll conducted by EPIC, Romney is +1 in Michigan. In their previous polling in April, Obama had been ahead by 4. The RCP electoral college map has now dropped 20 points on Obama in the past week. Link It's only going to get worse. Every week is a new embarrassment for Barry, while the worst for Romney is another spelling mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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