26CornerBlitz Posted May 9, 2012 Posted May 9, 2012 http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Las-Vegas-now-has-point-spreads-for-240-regular-season-games.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter WEEK 1 Buffalo Bills (+5.5) at New York Jets WEEK 2 Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills WEEK 3 Buffalo Bills (-1) at Cleveland Browns WEEK 4 New England Patriots (-5.5) at Buffalo Bills WEEK 5 Buffalo Bills (+7.5) at San Francisco 49ers WEEK 6 Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at Arizona Cardinals WEEK 7 Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Buffalo Bills WEEK 9 Buffalo Bills (+7) at Houston Texans WEEK 10 Buffalo Bills (+11.5) at New England Patriots WEEK 11 Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills WEEK 12 Buffalo Bills (-1) at Indianapolis Colts WEEK 13 Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) at Buffalo Bills WEEK 14 St. Louis Rams (+6) at Buffalo Bills WEEK 15 Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) at Buffalo Bills WEEK 16 Buffalo Bills (+3) at Miami Dolphins WEEK 17 (no lines posted) New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Captain Hindsight Posted May 9, 2012 Posted May 9, 2012 Good to know its too early to post for week 17
Just in Atlanta Posted May 9, 2012 Posted May 9, 2012 Stupid question, but I've never understood spreads. Buffalo Bills (+5.5) at New York Jets. Does that mean Bills 5.5 pts over the Jets or the other way around? And Buffalo Bills (-1) at Cleveland Browns. Bills one point dog or the other way around? Seems like it would be the other way around but the way it's written, not so.
26CornerBlitz Posted May 9, 2012 Author Posted May 9, 2012 Stupid question, but I've never understood spreads. Buffalo Bills (+5.5) at New York Jets. Does that mean Bills 5.5 pts over the Jets or the other way around? And Buffalo Bills (-1) at Cleveland Browns. Bills one point dog or the other way around? Seems like it would be the other way around but the way it's written, not so. + is the underdog - is the favorite
KD in CA Posted May 9, 2012 Posted May 9, 2012 Stupid question, but I've never understood spreads. Buffalo Bills (+5.5) at New York Jets. Does that mean Bills 5.5 pts over the Jets or the other way around? And Buffalo Bills (-1) at Cleveland Browns. Bills one point dog or the other way around? Seems like it would be the other way around but the way it's written, not so. Jets are favored over the Bills, Bills are favored over the Browns. So for betting purposes you get the Bills plus 5.5 points (so you win if they lose by 5 or less); that spread is the point of balance between which people are willing to bet Bills +5.5 and Jets -5.5 in even amounts.
mountainwampus Posted May 9, 2012 Posted May 9, 2012 Based on these spreads, the odds are pointing to a 8-7 record with 1 game undecided.
Just in Atlanta Posted May 9, 2012 Posted May 9, 2012 + is the underdog - is the favorite Now I know...Seems like it should be the other way. Thanks. Jets are favored over the Bills, Bills are favored over the Browns. So for betting purposes you get the Bills plus 5.5 points (so you win if they lose by 5 or less); that spread is the point of balance between which people are willing to bet Bills +5.5 and Jets -5.5 in even amounts. Thanks.
Never NEVER Give-up Posted May 9, 2012 Posted May 9, 2012 Stupid question, but I've never understood spreads. Buffalo Bills (+5.5) at New York Jets. Does that mean Bills 5.5 pts over the Jets or the other way around? And Buffalo Bills (-1) at Cleveland Browns. Bills one point dog or the other way around? Seems like it would be the other way around but the way it's written, not so. Not really a stupid question. They sometimes assign the + or - in confusing fashion - usually because of the over/under. Buffalo +5 means add 5 points to the Bills final score - we're a dog here. Against the Browns, it says Buffalo -1. Here we are the favorite "giving" a point to the Browns - or deduct 1 point from the Bills final score. The rule of thumb is take the final scores of the game and add/subtract the betting line to whichever team gets/gives points. The result is the final score for betting purposes. So in week one, add 5.5 points to the Bills final score. If we lose 25-20, you still win the bet because after adding 5.5 points you get Jets 25 - Bills 25.5. Similarly, if we beat the Browns by 1, 20-19, the betting line is a push/tie as you need to deduct 1 point from Buffalo's score, making it 19-19. Hope this helps.
ny33 Posted May 9, 2012 Posted May 9, 2012 http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Las-Vegas-now-has-point-spreads-for-240-regular-season-games.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter WEEK 1 Buffalo Bills (+5.5) at New York Jets WEEK 2 Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills WEEK 3 Buffalo Bills (-1) at Cleveland Browns WEEK 4 New England Patriots (-5.5) at Buffalo Bills WEEK 5 Buffalo Bills (+7.5) at San Francisco 49ers WEEK 6 Buffalo Bills (+2.5) at Arizona Cardinals WEEK 7 Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Buffalo Bills WEEK 9 Buffalo Bills (+7) at Houston Texans WEEK 10 Buffalo Bills (+11.5) at New England Patriots WEEK 11 Miami Dolphins (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills WEEK 12 Buffalo Bills (-1) at Indianapolis Colts WEEK 13 Jacksonville Jaguars (+5.5) at Buffalo Bills WEEK 14 St. Louis Rams (+6) at Buffalo Bills WEEK 15 Seattle Seahawks (+3.5) at Buffalo Bills WEEK 16 Buffalo Bills (+3) at Miami Dolphins WEEK 17 (no lines posted) New York Jets at Buffalo Bills The most interesting part of these lines- which will be very accurate for the regular season, as 7, 8, or 9 wins are likely for this team- is that Kansas City is a 2.5 point underdog, while Tennessee gets 3.5 points. Considering that we destroyed the Chiefs in Kansas City and lost to the Titans at home last year, you'd think the lines would favor the Titans more than the Chiefs. I guess Vegas is high on Kansas City this year, which makes sense since their roster is one of the best in the NFL outside of Matt Cassel. Vegas is usually pretty accurate with win projections. I think we can expect 7-9 wins, with a shot at 10 if we take care of the Jets (our greatest challenge in recent years). This is good news.
BobChalmers Posted May 9, 2012 Posted May 9, 2012 (edited) WEEK 2 Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) at Buffalo Bills So a year after the Bills humilated the Chiefs in KC, they are only 2.5 point favorites at home? People are stupid. I'm all over that line. Vegas is usually pretty accurate with win projections. I think we can expect 7-9 wins, with a shot at 10 if we take care of the Jets (our greatest challenge in recent years). This is good news. Not really. What you need to understand about point spreads is they are NOT designed to pick the game accurately - they are designed to find the average perception of the betting public. This is because the odds-makers win (make money), not by getting the right answer, but by getting 50% of the people to bet both sides. They win all the stuff in the middle anyway. Edited May 9, 2012 by BobChalmers
KD in CA Posted May 9, 2012 Posted May 9, 2012 The most interesting part of these lines- which will be very accurate for the regular season, as 7, 8, or 9 wins are likely for this team- is that Kansas City is a 2.5 point underdog, while Tennessee gets 3.5 points. Considering that we destroyed the Chiefs in Kansas City and lost to the Titans at home last year, you'd think the lines would favor the Titans more than the Chiefs. I guess Vegas is high on Kansas City this year, which makes sense since their roster is one of the best in the NFL outside of Matt Cassel. Other than a handful of teams everyone knows will be good and another handful everyone knows will suck, the majority of the league - including the BIlls - falls into the 'who knows' stage at this point. Thus these lines primarily reflect which team is playing at home, not what happened last year. That's why all the spreads against the other 'who knows' teams are around 3 points. As the season progresses and people start to understand who is better or worse than expected, the lines will move to reflect that perception. What you need to understand about point spreads is they are NOT designed to pick the game accurately - they are designed to find the average perception of the betting public. Yup
eball Posted May 9, 2012 Posted May 9, 2012 I find the easiest way to describe the line to non-bettors is this: Take the final score, and either add or subtract the appropriate number from the designated team's total. Then analyze who "wins."
Just in Atlanta Posted May 9, 2012 Posted May 9, 2012 Not really a stupid question. They sometimes assign the + or - in confusing fashion - usually because of the over/under. Buffalo +5 means add 5 points to the Bills final score - we're a dog here. Against the Browns, it says Buffalo -1. Here we are the favorite "giving" a point to the Browns - or deduct 1 point from the Bills final score. The rule of thumb is take the final scores of the game and add/subtract the betting line to whichever team gets/gives points. The result is the final score for betting purposes. So in week one, add 5.5 points to the Bills final score. If we lose 25-20, you still win the bet because after adding 5.5 points you get Jets 25 - Bills 25.5. Similarly, if we beat the Browns by 1, 20-19, the betting line is a push/tie as you need to deduct 1 point from Buffalo's score, making it 19-19. Hope this helps. Got it, thanks.
CodeMonkey Posted May 9, 2012 Posted May 9, 2012 (edited) Vegas is usually pretty accurate with win projections. I think we can expect 7-9 wins, with a shot at 10 if we take care of the Jets (our greatest challenge in recent years). This is good news. What you need to understand about point spreads is they are NOT designed to pick the game accurately - they are designed to find the average perception of the betting public. This is because the odds-makers win (make money), not by getting the right answer, but by getting 50% of the people to bet both sides. They win all the stuff in the middle anyway. BC is right of course. But it would be interesting to look back say 10 years and see how accurately the line has been in predicting straight-up wins/losses. EDIT: And of course there's a web site for that Gambling sites are blocked here at work, but it looks like this site analyzes this. Edited May 9, 2012 by CodeMonkey
BuffOrange Posted May 10, 2012 Posted May 10, 2012 BC is right of course. No he's not. Death, taxes, and guy on message board who has no clue about point spreads lecturing people on how point spreads work.
San Jose Bills Fan Posted May 11, 2012 Posted May 11, 2012 No he's not. Death, taxes, and guy on message board who has no clue about point spreads lecturing people on how point spreads work. He's not right? Why then why don't you state your counter opinion? Why is Bob wrong? If you think you know the objective of oddsmakers, why don't you just come out and say that it is? According to the link that Code Monkey posted, this is what the oddsmakers strive for… it sound pretty similar to what Bob Chalmers said: "Now, if a bookmakers job was solely to predict the final score of a game, we could safely state that they aren’t getting any better at their jobs. But that’s not their job. Instead, they’re trying to manage to a balanced book so correctly predicting the final score differential is a distant second to ensuring their line generates equal betting action on both sides of the game. It’s irrelevant to the bookmaker if the final score makes that point spread look ‘wrong’ by 5, 10 or 20 points."
BuffOrange Posted May 11, 2012 Posted May 11, 2012 He's not right? Why then why don't you state your counter opinion? Why is Bob wrong? If you think you know the objective of oddsmakers, why don't you just come out and say that it is? According to the link that Code Monkey posted, this is what the oddsmakers strive for… it sound pretty similar to what Bob Chalmers said: Well it's not my opinion but since you asked, equal 'action' ie $, has absolutely nothing to do with 50% of people on both sides, so it's not similar to what he said at all. I can pick 1-2 nfl games every week and tell you which side 90% of schmucks will take (invariably it will be a road favorite and be labeled by most dimwits as a 'trap game/line' of which there is no such thing). That hardly means 90% of the $ is going to be on that side. Moreover the books are willing to take sides on certain games - they don't make the same amount per bet every game, every year. Everyone always says they don't predict the scores/lines, and yet not a single person/system has ever shown they can do it better over a significant sample. Sagarin and Pomeroy ratings for college basketball are about as sound as any metric is for any sport, and even they can't do better than the vegas lines. But yeah I'm sure it's easy as "a bunch of idiots are skewing this line so it must be wrong" - betting sports would be like printing $ if that were the case.
plenzmd1 Posted May 11, 2012 Posted May 11, 2012 I agree with Buff on this one. Books will set lines that they think the squares will be attracted to..ie most of the action. They know in advance that's certain lines might, get pounded by the sharps when the line is released The previous Sunday, but will wait patiently for the squares to start piling on one starting the next Saturday. There are quite a few places where you can track the money, and see where the betting public is putting their money, and it is generally a very good contrarian indicator. As Buff mentioned, books get hurt when a majority of favorites win, a this is where the majority of Satuday/Sunday bets are made. Now, your local bookie may want to have both sides equal, and will "lay off" excess wagers on one side to get the 50% you talk about.
San Jose Bills Fan Posted May 12, 2012 Posted May 12, 2012 (edited) Well it's not my opinion but since you asked, equal 'action' ie $, has absolutely nothing to do with 50% of people on both sides, so it's not similar to what he said at all. I can pick 1-2 nfl games every week and tell you which side 90% of schmucks will take (invariably it will be a road favorite and be labeled by most dimwits as a 'trap game/line' of which there is no such thing). That hardly means 90% of the $ is going to be on that side. Moreover the books are willing to take sides on certain games - they don't make the same amount per bet every game, every year. Everyone always says they don't predict the scores/lines, and yet not a single person/system has ever shown they can do it better over a significant sample. Sagarin and Pomeroy ratings for college basketball are about as sound as any metric is for any sport, and even they can't do better than the vegas lines. But yeah I'm sure it's easy as "a bunch of idiots are skewing this line so it must be wrong" - betting sports would be like printing $ if that were the case. I agree with Buff on this one. Books will set lines that they think the squares will be attracted to..ie most of the action. They know in advance that's certain lines might, get pounded by the sharps when the line is released The previous Sunday, but will wait patiently for the squares to start piling on one starting the next Saturday. There are quite a few places where you can track the money, and see where the betting public is putting their money, and it is generally a very good contrarian indicator. As Buff mentioned, books get hurt when a majority of favorites win, a this is where the majority of Satuday/Sunday bets are made. Now, your local bookie may want to have both sides equal, and will "lay off" excess wagers on one side to get the 50% you talk about. I'm not trying to be an a-hole but I'm not following the argument. Let's start with a premise we can probably all agree upon… the oddsmakers are trying to make money. If we accept that, what is their strategy? That is what I would like to understand. Edited May 12, 2012 by San Jose Bills Fan
Tcali Posted May 12, 2012 Posted May 12, 2012 Well it's not my opinion but since you asked, equal 'action' ie $, has absolutely nothing to do with 50% of people on both sides, so it's not similar to what he said at all. I can pick 1-2 nfl games every week and tell you which side 90% of schmucks will take (invariably it will be a road favorite and be labeled by most dimwits as a 'trap game/line' of which there is no such thing). That hardly means 90% of the $ is going to be on that side. Moreover the books are willing to take sides on certain games - they don't make the same amount per bet every game, every year. Everyone always says they don't predict the scores/lines, and yet not a single person/system has ever shown they can do it better over a significant sample. Sagarin and Pomeroy ratings for college basketball are about as sound as any metric is for any sport, and even they can't do better than the vegas lines. But yeah I'm sure it's easy as "a bunch of idiots are skewing this line so it must be wrong" - betting sports would be like printing $ if that were the case. go to Reno and bet against the raiders...thats my advice.
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