birdog1960 Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 Considering the "locked down" states, Obamas path is wider. However that RCP has a number of tossups, and the poll that you were responding from Docs link polls all the tossup states. this is the most important consideration. the path is what matters and why much of the money from both campaigns will be spent on virginia, florida and ohio with proportionally less on the swing states with less electoral votes. doc's link also includes locked in states like south carolina, missouri, new york and california. those numbers don't matter as almost everyone agrees they're a fait de compli. the campaign managers are concerned with the swing states. interested observers should be too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Adams Posted May 9, 2012 Share Posted May 9, 2012 ... 1) The economy has hit a snag over the past two job reports (which could change again) ... If obama doesnt get those numbers up with independents, he'll lose. Don't underestimate that if the dollar strengthens due to EU problems and gas comes down, that will work in Obama's favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Don't underestimate that if the dollar strengthens due to EU problems and gas comes down, that will work in Obama's favor. I don’t believe so JA. On one hand, yes, the price of gasoline dropping does give Obama some political relief, in regards to that issue. But a strengthening dollar as a result of the European issue would have all other sorts of implications attached to it. The correlation between rising oil and stock prices exists, I would say that if you see the oil market drop, the likelyhood of seeing stocks drop as well would be extremely high. Just look at what stocks and oil have done over the past week, all one would need to do is pull up a chart of each and you’d see that they have mirrored each other. The only reason why the value of the dollar has been increasing is for one reason and one reason only. Fear! When people get panicky, they flee risk assets and go into US treasuries. Direct inflows into the US treasuries in many cases results in a stronger dollar. The way I see it, the US is on the shakiest ground that we’ve seen in at least 5-6 months. Lots of economic indicators are beginning to trend down, including Chicago PMI, factory orders, Durable goods orders, Non manufacturing ISM and recent labor reports. Now will it pick back up soon? Maybe. But what I do know is that any sort of external risks could tip what is 2% growth to sub 1%. I think its quite likely that we’ve already have begun to see a slowdown in China and Europe rest assure, will continue to get weaker. The biggest risk I see is some sort of systemic mini meltdown. The risks of that occurring is very possible, specially considering how far apart Hollande and Merkel appear to be and how incredibly chaotic the Greek situation is. Its populism run amok over there, the loudest voices are for breaking away from dastardly EU German meanies, so that they can print trillions of drachmas to lead them to the holy land of eternal inflation. Just the fear of them breaking apart, could pose Sovereign bonds to skyrocket, the risks of contagion are there and certainly would be felt over here. I really don’t know how this is going to play out, but the risks do exist. So back to your point of oil, if you see oil prices lets say get down to the mid 80’s, I would say that would be a reflection of how dire the situation over in Europe is, which of course would be reflected in our stock market. And when people see stocks go down for an extended period, it does dampen consumer sentiment not to mention plans of hiring from small businesses and corporations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OCinBuffalo Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 I don't believe so JA. On one hand, yes, the price of gasoline dropping does give Obama some political relief, in regards to that issue. But a strengthening dollar as a result of the European issue would have all other sorts of implications attached to it. The correlation between rising oil and stock prices exists, I would say that if you see the oil market drop, the likelyhood of seeing stocks drop as well would be extremely high. Just look at what stocks and oil have done over the past week, all one would need to do is pull up a chart of each and you'd see that they have mirrored each other. The only reason why the value of the dollar has been increasing is for one reason and one reason only. Fear! When people get panicky, they flee risk assets and go into US treasuries. Direct inflows into the US treasuries in many cases results in a stronger dollar. The way I see it, the US is on the shakiest ground that we've seen in at least 5-6 months. Lots of economic indicators are beginning to trend down, including Chicago PMI, factory orders, Durable goods orders, Non manufacturing ISM and recent labor reports. Now will it pick back up soon? Maybe. But what I do know is that any sort of external risks could tip what is 2% growth to sub 1%. I think its quite likely that we've already have begun to see a slowdown in China and Europe rest assure, will continue to get weaker. The biggest risk I see is some sort of systemic mini meltdown. The risks of that occurring is very possible, specially considering how far apart Hollande and Merkel appear to be and how incredibly chaotic the Greek situation is. Its populism run amok over there, the loudest voices are for breaking away from dastardly EU German meanies, so that they can print trillions of drachmas to lead them to the holy land of eternal inflation. Just the fear of them breaking apart, could pose Sovereign bonds to skyrocket, the risks of contagion are there and certainly would be felt over here. I really don't know how this is going to play out, but the risks do exist. So back to your point of oil, if you see oil prices lets say get down to the mid 80's, I would say that would be a reflection of how dire the situation over in Europe is, which of course would be reflected in our stock market. And when people see stocks go down for an extended period, it does dampen consumer sentiment not to mention plans of hiring from small businesses and corporations. What is the difference between risk and real...in terms of growth, in this analysis? In other words, are the risks you've outlined enough by themselves, without any actual event happening...like the actual break-up you describe, to cause a mini meltdown? The reason I ask is: the election is only 6 months away. If these risks don't stop being risks and don't turn into quantifiable reality...then what is their real effect? I understand that it's all a gambling game...but, even in gambling, the bookies set odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fjl2nd Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 (edited) Obama Has Big Likability Edge Over Romney Obama also up in every swing state except Florida. Aside: OCinBuffalo, not sure if your Obama statement in your sig makes sense. Government is shrinking for the first time in many years. Edited May 10, 2012 by fjl2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim in Anchorage Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 God I can't wait till obama is gone and the topics are not all about him. The Likability edge? Who the hell thought that up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Obama Has Big Likability Edge Over Romney Obama also up in every swing state except Florida. Aside: OCinBuffalo, not sure if your Obama statement in your sig makes sense. Government is shrinking for the first time in many years. Is the federal government shrinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaska Darin Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Well, its easy to see why INMATE NO. 11593-051 polled so high against President Obama, He such a good looking guy............. . In fairness, he looks far more like the average West Virginian than Mr. Obama does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
/dev/null Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 The Likability edge? Who the hell thought that up? My guess is an Obama supporter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 God I can't wait till obama is gone and the topics are not all about him. The Likability edge? Who the hell thought that up? Probably the same idiot who started counting the number of "hits" Teddy Bruschi had after his surgery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 LOL! I don't know of anyone that "likes" Barry anymore, except for his base. And that's mostly because he promises them free stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IDBillzFan Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 (edited) LOL! I don't know of anyone that "likes" Barry anymore, except for his base. And that's mostly because he promises them free stuff. That's not true. Everyone likes Obama. It's a helluva lot easier than being called a racist for not liking him. Edited May 10, 2012 by LABillzFan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 (edited) What is the difference between risk and real...in terms of growth, in this analysis? In other words, are the risks you've outlined enough by themselves, without any actual event happening...like the actual break-up you describe, to cause a mini meltdown? The reason I ask is: the election is only 6 months away. If these risks don't stop being risks and don't turn into quantifiable reality...then what is their real effect? I understand that it's all a gambling game...but, even in gambling, the bookies set odds. I was basing it off of the assumption of the case that JA made, which was the falling price of oil. To answer your question, I dont believe so. I believe that the natural rate of this economy is anywhere between 1.5% - 3% growth. I don't see any sort of systemic risks occuring in this economy without external factors occuring in the short to medium-term. Banks appear to be on solid footing and they are certainly well capitalized. I suppose there could be some risk in the exposure of foreign debt they are holding if there were to be a run on European bonds. The risks the way I view it would be more of a result of collateral impact from Europe. Global funds are so intertwined, a rush for the exits from Europe would undoubtedly produce a similar reaction over here. If that occured, then consumer sentiment would drop, despite the fall in oil prices, which would of course lead to less consumer spending, more uncertainty, less growth and hiring. Im not saying this is going to happen, its hard to predict what the newly elected politicians of Greece will do and how Hollande and Merkels relationship will develop. Im simply pointing out the risks Edited May 10, 2012 by Magox Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fjl2nd Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 God I can't wait till obama is gone and the topics are not all about him. The Likability edge? Who the hell thought that up? Probably the same idiot who started counting the number of "hits" Teddy Bruschi had after his surgery. Let's pretend like this "likable rating" is something new. LOL! I don't know of anyone that "likes" Barry anymore, except for his base. And that's mostly because he promises them free stuff. Not a fan of reading? Or do you not understand charts and numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Let's pretend like this "likable rating" is something new. Not a fan of reading? Or do you not understand charts and numbers? Is the federal government shrinking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
C.Biscuit97 Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 You guys are so right. Once Obama is out of office and stops holding you back from all your riches & career aspirations, you will all flourish. Seriously, your posts bitching about the country and leadership on a message board is changing things for the better. 2012 - anyone and I don't care who but Obama!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fjl2nd Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Is the federal government shrinking? It shrank(is that even a word? Lol.) by 1.3% in 2011. So yes currently, it IS shrinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Not a fan of reading? Or do you not understand charts and numbers? Not a fan of stupid ass polls like "likeability." Like being a "likeable" guy means he's not an abject failure as a president. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdnlng Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 It shrank(is that even a word? Lol.) by 1.3% in 2011. So yes currently, it IS shrinking. Do you have a link? I read somewhere that the feds have added employees over the last 3 years or so while the states and municipalities have shrunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fjl2nd Posted May 10, 2012 Share Posted May 10, 2012 Do you have a link? I read somewhere that the feds have added employees over the last 3 years or so while the states and municipalities have shrunk. We are both correct. The Federal Government shrunk 1.3% last year but still had added slightly more jobs since 2009. That may change by the end of 2012. The local government's have definitely gotten smaller. Here is a link: Under Obama, a Record Decline in Government Jobs The decline is public sector jobs has definitely hurt the recovery IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts