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The President Is Up By Eight In Virginia


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None of the decent ones wanted to run against an incumbent. Better to wait until 2016, when they have a shot at Kirstin Gillibrand or Andrew Cuomo.

Fixed better than lybob fixed it.

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kinda silly to look at the swing states en masse, as if that's how electoral votes are counted. but even then, declaring romney the likely victor in ohio, fla and va based on obama being ahead 2 points per this data is utterly ridiculous and based solely on wishful thinking. the piece should have been entitled "how i wish romney will win".

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He didn't say anything about the crowd size. His comment was on blocking traffic.

Ever seen a Presidential motorcade in action? Doesn't matter if the President is going to a packed stadium, an empty auditorium, or making a late night run to Taco Bell®.

^ This

 

If the Republicans really wanted Obama out of office, it's pretty sad that MR is the best candidate they can come up with.

What decent man would want to subject his family to the PR hatchet job that comes with being a Republican Presidential Nominee?

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kinda silly to look at the swing states en masse, as if that's how electoral votes are counted. but even then, declaring romney the likely victor in ohio, fla and va based on obama being ahead 2 points per this data is utterly ridiculous and based solely on wishful thinking. the piece should have been entitled "how i wish romney will win".

You can ignore it if you wish and believe that Barry has smooth sailing to re-election. But the facts are his lead is slipping. And again, Romney has yet to name a VP or really lay-into Barry about the state of the country. At the debates, Romney will have Barry repeating "it's not my fault, I inherited a mess" so many times, everyone will start :rolleyes: .

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kinda silly to look at the swing states en masse, as if that's how electoral votes are counted. but even then, declaring romney the likely victor in ohio, fla and va based on obama being ahead 2 points per this data is utterly ridiculous and based solely on wishful thinking. the piece should have been entitled "how i wish romney will win".

That doesn't make sense.

 

I'd be interested in seeing the indivdual break down state by state. You gotta figure Obama has a wide margin lead in Michigan and new Mexico, and probably a decent lead in PA and Wisconsin , and probably a lead in CO and NV. .

 

Considering the margin was two points and Obama having the lead in the six states I just mentioned, that most likely gives Romney the lead in NC, Ohio, Florida, NH and Iowa .

 

If that is the case, which Im pretty I'm not too far off, that would give Romney exactly 270 electoral votes, assuming he takes Indiana as well, which he will. Then there is still virginia, which could go either way. Like it or not, this race right now is 50/50 race. If the economy continues to stagnate as it has over the past two months, Romney will win. If the economy improves from where we are, Obama wins, it's that simple.

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That doesn't make sense.

 

I'd be interested in seeing the indivdual break down state by state. You gotta figure Obama has a wide margin lead in Michigan and new Mexico, and probably a decent lead in PA and Wisconsin , and probably a lead in CO and NV. .

 

Considering the margin was two points and Obama having the lead in the six states I just mentioned, that most likely gives Romney the lead in NC, Ohio, Florida, NH and Iowa .

 

If that is the case, which Im pretty I'm not too far off, that would give Romney exactly 270 electoral votes, assuming he takes Indiana as well, which he will. Then there is still virginia, which could go either way. Like it or not, this race right now is 50/50 race. If the economy continues to stagnate as it has over the past two months, Romney will win. If the economy improves from where we are, Obama wins, it's that simple.

It has to be a 50/50 race, just based on the fact of the sheer number of people who will just vote party line. The people who will research the candidates are part of the tipping point and how mobilized the party line voters are, is another major wildcard. It won't be a blow out, like 2008, that's for sure.

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If there are 21,000 seats and it's only occupied by 14k people, it would appear even less full because of the number of people standing on the floor.

 

Regardless, it's still pretty much a non-story.

update. 14,000 ( romney had 1500 in ford field) is more than romney's had for any single rally yet this was in the news cycle for 3 days? and you all complain about the liberal media?

 

That doesn't make sense.

 

I'd be interested in seeing the indivdual break down state by state. You gotta figure Obama has a wide margin lead in Michigan and new Mexico, and probably a decent lead in PA and Wisconsin , and probably a lead in CO and NV. .

 

Considering the margin was two points and Obama having the lead in the six states I just mentioned, that most likely gives Romney the lead in NC, Ohio, Florida, NH and Iowa .

 

If that is the case, which Im pretty I'm not too far off, that would give Romney exactly 270 electoral votes, assuming he takes Indiana as well, which he will. Then there is still virginia, which could go either way. Like it or not, this race right now is 50/50 race. If the economy continues to stagnate as it has over the past two months, Romney will win. If the economy improves from where we are, Obama wins, it's that simple.

you and the guy from the washington times are seeing the poll data much dfferently than most analysts i've read including real clear politics. obama ahead in combined polls in nc, ohio and virginia. virtual dead heat in fla. didn't check nh and iowa - knock yourself out. which candidates numbers would you truly prefer to have right now?

Edited by birdog1960
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you and the guy from the washington times are seeing the poll data much dfferently than most analysts i've read including real clear politics. obama ahead in combined polls in nc, ohio and virginia. virtual dead heat in fla. didn't check nh and iowa - knock yourself out. which candidates numbers would you truly prefer to have right now?

I'd take the numbers of the guy who just got his party's nomination, who has yet to select a VP, and who doesn't have 8+% unemployment, a stagnant economy, Obamacare, a failed stimulus, failed "green tech" companies, and high gas prices hanging over his head. Even moreso when the numbers suggest a statistical dead heat. But hey, that's just me.

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Look, even if all the fairies wave their dust, and the rainbows come out, and the unicorns fart just right, and all the other wishful thinking actually trumps the fact that:

 

The latest in the GWU battleground poll shows Obama down by 10 points amongst independents

 

Even if we are to believe that the right has invaded a left-leaning website and contaminated a traditionally excellent poll conducted by GWU for years....even if we are to believe that the economy isn't being held down by uncertainty due to lack of leadership, no budget in 3 years, no clue as to what assclownery will come from the EPA next, and no idea how in the hell the idiots at CMS are going to implement the monstrosity that is Obamacare....

 

even if all of that goes away, or goes just right? (hmmm...did the GSA secretly buy a dump truck load of fairy dust, and that whole thing was just a cover?)

 

The House and Senate will be Republican owned. Period. And, the little, delicate "black president" ornament will have to try to actually learn how to lead something.

 

Now, try and wish that away.

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Hey, Dave...how's he looking in West VIrgina?

 

A felon incarcerated in Texas took one in three votes away from President Obama in West Virginia's Democratic presidential primary on Tuesday.

 

Keith Judd, who is serving time in a federal prison in Texarkana, Texas, for extortion, took 37 percent of the vote, with 50 percent of precincts reporting. Obama captured the remaining 63 percent.

 

Thought this was just a joke last night, but not only is it true, even the MSM is picking it up.

Edited by LABillzFan
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Hey, Dave...how's he looking in West VIrgina?

 

Thought this was just a joke last night, but not only is it true, even the MSM is picking it up.

Holy crap...now, a convicted felon...gets a delegate at the Dem Convention. :lol: Hysterical. Like the cameras won't be on...the Felon's Delegate? The Extortionists Delegate? (which is the better movie title?) when West Virginia comes up. Like the only reason people will watch the convention now won't be to see that guy.

 

Oh, man...this sounds like a Limbaugh operation. Chaos operation or whatever he calls it.

 

Davey is not gonna like this...more :o

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update. 14,000 ( romney had 1500 in ford field) is more than romney's had for any single rally yet this was in the news cycle for 3 days? and you all complain about the liberal media?

 

 

you and the guy from the washington times are seeing the poll data much dfferently than most analysts i've read including real clear politics. obama ahead in combined polls in nc, ohio and virginia. virtual dead heat in fla. didn't check nh and iowa - knock yourself out. which candidates numbers would you truly prefer to have right now?

Considering the "locked down" states, Obamas path is wider. However that RCP has a number of tossups, and the poll that you were responding from Docs link polls all the tossup states. If you look at the polls that have been coming out this past month, which is more important because that shows the race post Santorum, the trends have been moving swiftly in ROmneys Favor.

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

 

The only polls that have shown Obama with a decent lead for the most part has been the PPP polls. The PPP polls are using a polling methodology based off of the 2008 elections. There are many problems with basing it off of 2008 results. One is enthusiasm. There isnt nearly the enthusiasm that there was then, specially for people below the age of 30. Second is the voter registrations are way down based on the 2010 census. The WAPO just wrote a piece about the other day. We're talking double digit percentage drop offs. The reasoning they cited was that the economy effects minorities and the youth disproportionately, which effects vote registrations. SO between the voter registration dropoffs, the bad economy, the huge independent turnaround and the lack of enthusiasm, this race as of right now is a tossup.

 

The BATTLEGROUND POLITICO poll shows Romney with a 48% to 38% lead with independents. And all pollsters know that the vast majority of undecided independents break away from the incumbent. So the 10% lead is most likely at least 15%. That same poll a little over a month ago showed Obama with a 7% lead. So thats a huge turnaround in a short period of time. The turnaround is for two main reasons.

 

1) The economy has hit a snag over the past two job reports (which could change again)

 

2) The bruising primaries is over with.

 

If obama doesnt get those numbers up with independents, he'll lose.

Edited by Magox
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