Nix's drafting strategy

[Spiderweb]

John Butler was a pretty good GM in his own right.

 

Nix has the best job in the world. Following the footsteps of Russ Brandon and Marv Levy, there's nowhere to go but up!

 

I would disagree and he merely rode the coat tails of a the GM before him (Polian). When the smoke finally settled and the cupboard was bare, be bolted.

 

Butler oversaw the demise of they Bills and was incapable of reloading the team with the talent needed to compete. He also had a penchant for overpaying lesser or aging players thus the 2001 salary cap mess we ended up in.

[ganesh]

I think we should rethink the definition of draft success. We also can't penalize Butler for subsequent front offices not resigning a player. The average NFL player has about a 4 year career and when you look back at the retrospective redrafts that are published every year at draft time of what "should" have been picked 4-5 years ago based on how the players actually performed, there's nearly a 50% bust rate in the first round. That rate gets high, of course, is subsequent rounds. Anytime you bag an 8-10 year starter in the league, then you HIT on that draft pick and the selection was a good one, given the information they have at the time.

 

The highlighted players should all be counted as successful draft picks.

-- Fina had a 10 year career as a starting LT

-- Burris was a starting CB, electrifying punt returner and was signed away by Colts to a rich contract

-- Ruben Brown and Eric Moulds you've already declared a success

-- Antowain Smith, did have 2 1K years and had a productive 10 year career at RB, he's a bit iffy

-- Antoine Winfield has long been a top notch CB in the league

 

So I think we have to give him credit for hitting 5.5 out of 9 (A. Smith I counted as a 1/2)

 

Also, I think just as Franchise QB is important, the success of a GM is determined by the hiring of the Head Coach and his coaching staff and their success with the drafted players. Some of the GM's picks are based on what the coach wants.

For example, Dick Jauron clearly had the biggest influence in the drafting of Donte Whitner and more so on the not drafting of Haloti Nagata as he did not fit their Tampa-2 defense. Whitner sucked here for five years while Nagata has been a star in Baltimore.

[K-9]

Also, I think just as Franchise QB is important, the success of a GM is determined by the hiring of the Head Coach and his coaching staff and their success with the drafted players. Some of the GM's picks are based on what the coach wants.

For example, Dick Jauron clearly had the biggest influence in the drafting of Donte Whitner and more so on the not drafting of Haloti Nagata as he did not fit their Tampa-2 defense. Whitner sucked here for five years while Nagata has been a star in Baltimore.

 

Maybin was Jauron's pick all the way as well.

 

And it pissed off Buddy Nix.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[KD in CA]

Pretty ironic that three short years ago, some of the same fans now praising Nix as a "strategic thinker" were bemoaning the hiring of a "dumbass country hick" nobody else wanted. (disclaimer: I'm not referring to Edwards' Arm)

 

I love the NFL.

 

And Nix was received like the Allies in Paris compared to the reaction here when Gailey ('retread', 'failed everywhere he's been', 'Ralph is cheap', etc) was hired.

[Orton's Arm]

I think we should rethink the definition of draft success. We also can't penalize Butler for subsequent front offices not resigning a player. The average NFL player has about a 4 year career and when you look back at the retrospective redrafts that are published every year at draft time of what "should" have been picked 4-5 years ago based on how the players actually performed, there's nearly a 50% bust rate in the first round. That rate gets high, of course, is subsequent rounds. Anytime you bag an 8-10 year starter in the league, then you HIT on that draft pick and the selection was a good one, given the information they have at the time.

 

The highlighted players should all be counted as successful draft picks.

-- Fina had a 10 year career as a starting LT

-- Burris was a starting CB, electrifying punt returner and was signed away by Colts to a rich contract

-- Ruben Brown and Eric Moulds you've already declared a success

-- Antowain Smith, did have 2 1K years and had a productive 10 year career at RB, he's a bit iffy

-- Antoine Winfield has long been a top notch CB in the league

 

So I think we have to give him credit for hitting 5.5 out of 9 (A. Smith I counted as a 1/2)

Jeff Burris had a ten year career, the first four of which were spent with the Bills. He would have been a good use of a first round pick had he been retained for the entirety of his career. To use a first round pick on a guy and receive only four years in return does not constitute success. Given that Butler let Burris go first-contract-and-out, we have to wonder whether he would have kept Antoine Winfield locked up long term. I don't want to blame Butler for TD's mistakes. On the other hand, there's nothing in Butler's track record which would suggest he would have re-signed Winfield. The fact that so many early picks were used on first-contract-and-out DBs is an important reason why the team TD inherited did not have a strong group of core players. (The better GMs in the league build their teams around a group of very good players who will be with the team for a long time. The first round of the draft is the best place to find such players.)

 

I too have heard that NFL careers last for four years or less. Upon further investigation, the source of that information turned out to be the players' union. To arrive at that figure, a union leader determined that the average player currently in the league has been around for 3.5 years. That calculation implies an average career length of about seven years, not the 3.5 years that the union leader imagines. In any case, the data are skewed because of players who barely make the team, and are released after very short careers.

 

The Bills employed an agency to rate the quality of their players. According to that agency, Fina was in the bottom third of starting LTs. While I acknowledge that his long career means he wasn't a complete failure, I don't think a bottom-third LT is what a GM should hope for or expect when using a first round pick on a LT.

 

Antowain Smith didn't provide the Bills with a significant improvement over lower round picks like Sammy Morris. Nor was Smith particularly sought-after in free agency after his four years with the Bills. As for the 1000 yard season: if you were to take a standard-issue backup RB, and give him the lion's share of the carries, odds are he'll have a 1000 yard season.

 

I'm not saying Butler's tenure was a disaster. He found some competent starters after the first round, including Kurt Schulz, Jay Riemersma, and Sam Rogers. There seemed to be good chemistry between Butler and Wade Phillips; with Butler using lower round picks on players who became solid contributors in Wade's 3-4 defense. Wade had a better defensive scheme than any other coach of the '80s, '90s, or the present, including Dave Wannstedt. Wade's defensive coaching elevated the level of the team, as did holdovers from the Super Bowl era.

[cage]

I respectfully think that your view is too short-term focused. Sure, he could have traded a boatload of picks to move up and take a potential "franchise" QB, but he felt it was better to build the overall talent on the roster, especially the defense, up first. If he had traded, say, 2 #1s and a #2 pick to move up to grab a highly rated then the Bills would still have a UB-level defense and wouldn't be any more competitive (if they were as competitive as I think they'll be).

 

I am all-in on fixing the D first. I would rather watch my team be in most games because the defense can hold good teams to low scores than the alternative. It is AWFUL watching a defense that has no hope at all of stopping any opponent. That is what we were watching 2 years ago with some improvement last year.

 

I'm actually not advocating that he should have done anything differently. I'm happy with the direction of the team and generally agree with his logic. I'm just saying that he has put all his eggs in the Fitz basket and it will become the basis of his success... or failure.

 

So, is there anything else he could have done? Lets look at history...

 

2010 -- Tim Tebow picked by Broncos w/ 25th pick on a surprising trade-up to get him, widely rumored that Bills would have picked him with their 2nd round pick that year

 

2010 -- Passed on picking Jimmy Clausen in 2nd round

 

2010 -- Passed on picking Colt McCoy in 3rd round

 

2011 -- Picked #3 and passed on Jake Locker (Titans/#8), Blaine Gabbert (Jaguars/#10), Christian Ponder (Vikings/#12) in 1st round

 

2011 -- Picked #34 and passed on Andy Dalton (Bengals/#35), Colin Kaeperniak (49ers/#36) in 2nd round

 

2011 -- Picked #68 and passed on Ryan Mallet (Patriots/#74)

 

2012 -- Picked #10 and passed on Brandon Weedon (Browns/#22)

 

2012 -- Picked #41 and passed on Brock Osweiler (Broncos/#25)

 

So those have been his chances. Ignoring the most recent draft, the only outright misses on this list is Andy Dalton (2011/2nd round) and possibly Ryan Mallet (2011/3rd round). He's also made some notable decisions to ignore Clausen and McCoy when he had reasonable shots at them and these seemed to be good choices. By and large its hard to argue with where we're at. QB is a tough position to call and looking at the history above, Nix is batting well over .500 on his decisions...

[ganesh]

Maybin was Jauron's pick all the way as well.

 

And it pissed off Buddy Nix.

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

And in the same way Spiller is a pick that Gailey wanted for his offense and Nix Delivered. Prior to the draft, Gailey publicly informed that they were looking for a scat back and they got one in the 1st round.

 

I would disagree and he merely rode the coat tails of a the GM before him (Polian). When the smoke finally settled and the cupboard was bare, be bolted.

 

Butler oversaw the demise of they Bills and was incapable of reloading the team with the talent needed to compete. He also had a penchant for overpaying lesser or aging players thus the 2001 salary cap mess we ended up in.

 

Agreed..Butler should have been fired on Draft day for his 1st round : Erik Flowers!

[Orton's Arm]

I'm actually not advocating that he should have done anything differently. I'm happy with the direction of the team and generally agree with his logic. I'm just saying that he has put all his eggs in the Fitz basket and it will become the basis of his success... or failure.

 

So, is there anything else he could have done? Lets look at history...

 

2010 -- Tim Tebow picked by Broncos w/ 25th pick on a surprising trade-up to get him, widely rumored that Bills would have picked him with their 2nd round pick that year

 

2010 -- Passed on picking Jimmy Clausen in 2nd round

 

2010 -- Passed on picking Colt McCoy in 3rd round

 

2011 -- Picked #3 and passed on Jake Locker (Titans/#8), Blaine Gabbert (Jaguars/#10), Christian Ponder (Vikings/#12) in 1st round

 

2011 -- Picked #34 and passed on Andy Dalton (Bengals/#35), Colin Kaeperniak (49ers/#36) in 2nd round

 

2011 -- Picked #68 and passed on Ryan Mallet (Patriots/#74)

 

2012 -- Picked #10 and passed on Brandon Weedon (Browns/#22)

 

2012 -- Picked #41 and passed on Brock Osweiler (Broncos/#25)

 

So those have been his chances. Ignoring the most recent draft, the only outright misses on this list is Andy Dalton (2011/2nd round) and possibly Ryan Mallet (2011/3rd round). He's also made some notable decisions to ignore Clausen and McCoy when he had reasonable shots at them and these seemed to be good choices. By and large its hard to argue with where we're at. QB is a tough position to call and looking at the history above, Nix is batting well over .500 on his decisions...

I don't see much long-term potential in most of the players you mentioned. The ones which seem most intriguing are Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, and perhaps Brock Osweiler. Even with those three guys, I don't see any guarantees of getting a top-5 or even a top-10 QB. There are no Andrew Lucks in that group, though I am a fan of Ponder.

 

I agree that the Bills will need significantly upgraded QB play before they can win the Super Bowl, and that this significantly upgraded play is unlikely to come from Fitz. But while the Bills are very unlikely to win the Super Bowl with Fitz under center, Nix has assembled enough talent to allow them to go 11-5 and get eliminated in the divisional round. The Jets managed that with Sanchez under center, and Fitz is better than Sanchez. (Sanchez's yards per attempt is about the same as Trent Edwards', despite the fact that Sanchez is surrounded with a much better supporting cast than the one Edwards had.) If Nix produces an 8-8 season this year, followed by 9-7 or 10-6 next year, it should be good enough to let him keep his job. That will give him time to draft a QB prospect to groom behind Fitz. Whether there will be an available first round prospect worth taking, and whether Nix will decide to pull the trigger, are of course unknown factors.

[Jerry Jabber]

The Ravens won the Superbowl with a monster defense, great special teams, & Trent Dilfer at QB. So if Nix can do the same with Fitz & the rest of the team, then I'm fine with that.

[Lurker]

Interesting factoid from Chris Brown:

 

"As a whole, Buffalo’s nine-player draft class missed six total games due to injury in their collegiate careers. All of those missed games were by third-round pick T.J. Graham, whose sophomore season was interrupted by a stress fracture in his leg."

 

Pretty impressive durability...

[Orton's Arm]

The Ravens won the Superbowl with a monster defense, great special teams, & Trent Dilfer at QB. So if Nix can do the same with Fitz & the rest of the team, then I'm fine with that.

Nine out of the last ten Super Bowls were won by teams with franchise QBs. If you don't have a franchise QB--and the Bills don't--the odds are heavily stacked against you.

 

That said, the Ravens did show that a team without a franchise QB can win the Super Bowl after all. Each of their four defensive linemen legitimately required a double team. Even the worst of their starting linebackers played at or near a Pro Bowl level, and the best of the bunch, Ray Lewis, will find his way into the Hall of Fame. Their secondary consisted of a pair of shutdown corners, along with players like Ed Reed at safety. This talent was good enough to give them one of the three best defenses in NFL history.

 

But that defense alone was not enough for them to win the Super Bowl. On offense they had a great OL, anchored by Hall of Fame-level LT in the form of Jon Ogden. They had a talented running back in the form of Jamal Lewis--a player who would later have a 2000 yard rushing season, IIRC. They had an aging, but still very good, Hall of Fame TE in Shannon Sharpe. Only at QB and WR did their offense have below-average talent.

 

The Ravens also had a good special teams unit. IIRC, that special teams unit made the difference in their playoff game against the Titans.

 

Finally, the Ravens got lucky in terms of who they faced in the postseason. Other than in the first half of the Raiders game, none of the Ravens' postseason opponents had a franchise QB. Back in 2000, the Giants had Kerry Collins at quarterback. Because of Kerry Collins and other weaknesses, the Giants of 2000 were a much weaker Super Bowl opponent than they would later become with Eli Manning under center. Teams which win the Super Bowl are generally much better than the Giants of 2000 had been. As an example, the Giants team which just won the Super Bowl has a franchise QB (Eli Manning) and a relatively complete team to go with him.

 

While I love the way the Bills' defense has been improved, the goal of building one of the three or four best defenses in NFL history is still a long way away. Even if that goal is achieved, the Bills would still have to hope for a Ravens-like OL. They'd also have to hope that their postseason opponents are no better than the teams the Ravens faced in the 2000/2001 postseason, and are like the Kerry Collins Giants, not the Eli Manning Giants. Rather than hope for all that, I'd just as soon find a franchise QB if at all possible.

Edited May 2, 2012 by Edwards' Arm

[Kelly the Dog]

Interesting factoid from Chris Brown:

 

"As a whole, Buffalo's nine-player draft class missed six total games due to injury in their collegiate careers. All of those missed games were by third-round pick T.J. Graham, whose sophomore season was interrupted by a stress fracture in his leg."

 

Pretty impressive durability...

That is truly amazing. A curse, for sure, but truly amazing.

[BillsWatch]

Pretty ironic that three short years ago, some of the same fans now praising Nix as a "strategic thinker" were bemoaning the hiring of a "dumbass country hick" nobody else wanted. (disclaimer: I'm not referring to Edwards' Arm)

 

I love the NFL.

 

That is because some of the posters are dumbass country hicks and knew what kind of failures they are.

[atlbillsfan1975]

Nine out of the last ten Super Bowls were won by teams with franchise QBs. If you don't have a franchise QB--and the Bills don't--the odds are heavily stacked against you.

 

That said, the Ravens did show that a team without a franchise QB can win the Super Bowl after all. Each of their four defensive linemen legitimately required a double team. Even the worst of their starting linebackers played at or near a Pro Bowl level, and the best of the bunch, Ray Lewis, will find his way into the Hall of Fame. Their secondary consisted of a pair of shutdown corners, along with players like Ed Reed at safety. This talent was good enough to give them one of the three best defenses in NFL history.

 

But that defense alone was not enough for them to win the Super Bowl. On offense they had a great OL, anchored by Hall of Fame-level LT in the form of Jon Ogden. They had a talented running back in the form of Jamal Lewis--a player who would later have a 2000 yard rushing season, IIRC. They had an aging, but still very good, Hall of Fame TE in Shannon Sharpe. Only at QB and WR did their offense have below-average talent.

 

The Ravens also had a good special teams unit. IIRC, that special teams unit made the difference in their playoff game against the Titans.

 

Finally, the Ravens got lucky in terms of who they faced in the postseason. Other than in the first half of the Raiders game, none of the Ravens' postseason opponents had a franchise QB. Back in 2000, the Giants had Kerry Collins at quarterback. Because of Kerry Collins and other weaknesses, the Giants of 2000 were a much weaker Super Bowl opponent than they would later become with Eli Manning under center. Teams which win the Super Bowl are generally much better than the Giants of 2000 had been. As an example, the Giants team which just won the Super Bowl has a franchise QB (Eli Manning) and a relatively complete team to go with him.

 

While I love the way the Bills' defense has been improved, the goal of building one of the three or four best defenses in NFL history is still a long way away. Even if that goal is achieved, the Bills would still have to hope for a Ravens-like OL. They'd also have to hope that their postseason opponents are no better than the teams the Ravens faced in the 2000/2001 postseason, and are like the Kerry Collins Giants, not the Eli Manning Giants. Rather than hope for all that, I'd just as soon find a franchise QB if at all possible.

Great analysis.

I do agree for the most part.

So lets say Buffalo goes out and has a solid year 9-7 or even 10-6, but miss playoffs. And the one thing you canpoint your finger at is QB play was lacking.

 

Next draft you mortgage the hilt and go get your guy. Send two first's and a second and jump up and get one of the two best QB's coming out.

 

My point is i think right now QB is the biggest question mark on this team. Could be ok, but also could stand for an improvement.

 

Fitz showed he was capable for stretches at a time, but others he left us scratching our head. Now some believe that was due to injuries to himself and others on the team.

 

Lets see what this year brings. If Fitz is healthy and so is his line and wr's(for the most part), then it is aput up or shut up year for him.

Edited May 2, 2012 by atlbillsfan1975

[3rdand12]

it's a put up or shut up for alot of players. And Chan.

I hope Chan Gailey fairs well because i really like the GUY. But the lack of corrections last year in regard to pass and running still baffle me. and i wish we had an Offensive coordinator we could have fired.

[Harveyj001]

Thanks for the good, level-headed responses.

 

I agree with Coach Tuesday and Cage that a franchise QB is critical. I also feel Fitz needs to play at a higher level than we've seen for him to be that franchise QB. I think he's capable of being an average NFL starter. Together with the talent Nix seems to have assembled, that should be good enough to get the Bills into the playoffs, and perhaps even into the divisional round. At some point during the postseason the Bills will likely get eliminated by a team with a franchise QB. But if the Bills start making it to the playoffs, Nix's job should be safe for the next few years.

 

I agree that Butler was a better GM than TD or Marv. But Butler made his share of mistakes too. Butler's first round picks consisted of the following:

1992: John Fina, LT

1993: Thomas Smith, CB

1994: Jeff Burris, CB

1995: Ruben Brown, G

1996: Eric Moulds, WR

1997: Antowain Smith, RB

1998: traded for Rob Johnson, QB

1999: Antoine Winfield, CB

2000: Erik Flowers, DE

 

John Fina was in the bottom third of starting LTs. That fact didn't stop Butler from giving him a lavish extension in 2000. In 2001, TD released Fina. After his release, Fina signed a short-term deal with some other team for near the league minimum. That was part of a larger pattern: Butler was not disciplined about the salary cap.

 

Looking at the above list, only two success stories jump out at me: Eric Moulds and Ruben Brown. As for Brown: when you use a first round pick on an OG, you expect him to be a very good player. Antowain Smith was a wasted draft pick, because you shouldn't use a first round pick on a RB unless a) he runs like Jim Brown, or b) he'll be a much better receiver than your average RB. Nothing about Smith indicated he was either of these things. Antoine Winfield would have been a great success story had he not gone first-contract-and-out. Granted, TD was the one to blame for not re-signing him. On the other hand, Butler had allowed previous first round DBs (Smith and Burris) to leave in free agency, which indicates at least the possibility that he would have similarly allowed Winfield to leave. Without a better feel for whether he would have been retained, I'll hold the Winfield question in abeyance.

 

Butler failed to solve the Bills' problems at QB or on the offensive line. (Flutie was never going to be more than an aging stopgap.) The defensive line was another story: Ted Washington and Pat Williams were big additions, both figuratively and literally. Marcellus Wiley had a few good years for the Bills. TD let him go first-contract-and-out in an effort to clean up the salary cap mess Butler had created. Wiley did little after leaving the Bills. In a nutshell, Butler acquired two good NTs/DTs, but no long-term answers at DE. Not a great legacy for someone who'd spent seven years as the official GM, and one year prior to that as the de facto GM. (I've read that the Fina pick was Butler's call, even though Polian was still officially GM at the time.) On the other hand, some of Butler's acquisitions at LB--Paup and Cowart--would have been long-term answers had it not been for career-altering injuries.

 

Butler found relatively few success stories outside the first round; and most of his first round picks were disappointing. He achieved temporary successes through free agent signings like Flutie, as well as through draft picks and free agent signings who contributed at a high level for a few years before flaming out. Finally, he greatly benefited from the talent he inherited from Polian. However, that talent slowly slipped away due to player aging, and Butler did not replace it at anywhere near the pace at which it was being lost. TD inherited an aging roster of below-average talent, which also happened to be in serious salary cap trouble. Even with a legacy like that, Butler was a significantly better GM than either TD or Marv.

 

I think you missed two points: Burris was good but his carrer and potential was cut short on a punt return injury and Winfield is still a good player in the league. That goes back to the one contract and done mentioned in the original post. I also think part of that was the salary cap mess the Bills were in at the time.

Edited May 2, 2012 by Harveyj001

[Orton's Arm]

Great analysis.

I do agree for the most part.

So lets say Buffalo goes out and has a solid year 9-7 or even 10-6, but miss playoffs. And the one thing you canpoint your finger at is QB play was lacking.

 

Next draft you mortgage the hilt and go get your guy. Send two first's and a second and jump up and get one of the two best QB's coming out.

 

My point is i think right now QB is the biggest question mark on this team. Could be ok, but also could stand for an improvement.

 

Fitz showed he was capable for stretches at a time, but others he left us scratching our head. Now some believe that was due to injuries to himself and others on the team.

 

Lets see what this year brings. If Fitz is healthy and so is his line and wr's(for the most part), then it is aput up or shut up year for him.

I think that you and I are on the same page. As far as I'm concerned, even early in the season when his numbers were good, Fitz made bad throws a franchise QB would have avoided. Even in the New England game, the Bills barely won, despite the fact Tom Brady uncharacteristically threw four interceptions, and despite the fact that at the time New England had one of the worst pass defenses of the past decade. Most of the time, Tom Brady will not throw an entire season's worth of interceptions in a single game, which means that most of the time, a Tom Brady team will roll right over a Fitzpatrick team. Especially if the two teams' defenses are evenly matched.

 

I'm not saying that Fitz's accuracy and mechanics can't improve. But as others have pointed out, the odds of that actually happening at this late a stage in his career are slim. This means that while the Bills can do reasonably well in the regular season with Fitz at QB, they cannot win the Super Bowl until a franchise QB is obtained. Not to sound like I'm putting all my eggs into the basket of an UDFA who's never played a down of football in the NFL, but I'm optimistic about the Alex Tanney signing.

[cody]

I would disagree and he merely rode the coat tails of a the GM before him (Polian). When the smoke finally settled and the cupboard was bare, be bolted.

 

Butler oversaw the demise of they Bills and was incapable of reloading the team with the talent needed to compete. He also had a penchant for overpaying lesser or aging players thus the 2001 salary cap mess we ended up in.

 

Butler's problem was managing the salary cap. When he left the Bills, they were among the league leaders in dead cap space.

He had the same problem in San Diego.

[cage]

I don't see much long-term potential in most of the players you mentioned. The ones which seem most intriguing are Jake Locker, Christian Ponder, and perhaps Brock Osweiler. Even with those three guys, I don't see any guarantees of getting a top-5 or even a top-10 QB. There are no Andrew Lucks in that group, though I am a fan of Ponder.

 

I agree that the Bills will need significantly upgraded QB play before they can win the Super Bowl, and that this significantly upgraded play is unlikely to come from Fitz. But while the Bills are very unlikely to win the Super Bowl with Fitz under center, Nix has assembled enough talent to allow them to go 11-5 and get eliminated in the divisional round. The Jets managed that with Sanchez under center, and Fitz is better than Sanchez. (Sanchez's yards per attempt is about the same as Trent Edwards', despite the fact that Sanchez is surrounded with a much better supporting cast than the one Edwards had.) If Nix produces an 8-8 season this year, followed by 9-7 or 10-6 next year, it should be good enough to let him keep his job. That will give him time to draft a QB prospect to groom behind Fitz. Whether there will be an available first round prospect worth taking, and whether Nix will decide to pull the trigger, are of course unknown factors.

 

I think my conclusion from looking at the list of round 1/2/3 draftees that Nix faced is that I understand how he backed into Fitz as his solution, but I still think his fate will rest with Fitz' success or failure regardless. As a fan, of course, I hope they have a big year, but Fitz still has to prove it to everyone...

[hondo in seattle]

I've seen post-Polian GMs make a number of strategic errors over the years, particularly on draft day. I'll start by listing the errors of previous GMs, and then I'll look at whether Nix avoided the errors of the list.

 

Errors

• Too many early picks on DBs. The underlying cause of this error was that the Bills' best DBs were allowed to go first-contract-and-out. That policy artificially created needs at DB positions--needs which were then filled with early picks. There were also times when the Bills reached for a DB early in the draft, with Whitner being the most obvious example.
  
• Too many RBs. Every 3.5 years the Bills would use a first or second round pick on a RB, while giving up on the previous early pick from 3.5 years ago.
  
• Too few QBs and OTs. Over the past 40 years, the Bills have used 50% of their first picks of the draft on RBs and DBs. None have been used on QBs, and only 5% on OTs.
  
• Too strong an emphasis on "quick fix" players. Part of the reason for the excess of RBs and DBs, and the absence of OTs and QBs, is that players in the later category typically can't contribute as quickly. Marv's drafts are an excellent example of a "win now" mentality. He once said that if you're building for the future, you're building for someone else's future.
  
• Taking players early in the draft based on a single good year, or a good year plus a good combine. Maybin is a good example of this.
  
• Taking players based on achievements against lesser competition. Maybin is a good example of this flaw also.

 

In his three years as GM, Nix has used a first and a second round pick on a CB. Given the first point I made, it may seem as though I'm about to criticize him for this. I'm not. It's perfectly acceptable to use an early pick on a DB to fill a legitimate need, which is what Nix has done. He has not created any artificial needs by failing to re-sign any DB worth keeping. If he starts letting good DBs go first-contract-and-out, then and only then do you criticize him.

 

On a similar vein, I won't necessarily criticize Nix for the Spiller pick. If Spiller can be a very effective runner, and if he can be Thurman-like in passing situations, he's worth the pick used on him. He's shown flashes of this in his brief playing time last season. For this pick to be justified, the Bills have to hold onto him for a total of eight or ten years. He cannot be the next Antowain Smith/Travis Henry/Willis McGahee/Marshawn Lynch!

 

Too few QBs. The Bills have a need for a franchise QB. But it's not as though Nix has passed up a widely recognized franchise QB prospect to take a player at some other position instead.

 

Too few OTs. TD once expressed the view that a good OL was more the result of good coaching than player talent. That was around the time he hired McNally to be the OL coach, while letting Jonas Jennings leave in free agency. The Bills' OL of 2005 was one of the worst in team history. After Marv Levy tried and failed to fix the line with overpriced, overhyped free agents, the Bills have been quietly building the line back into what it should be. Nix has continued that process with guys like Hairston and Pears at RT, and now Glenn at LT. If Glenn works out, and if some of the other OLs just drafted reach their potential, the OL will have both good starters and good depth.

 

Too strong an emphasis on "quick fix" players. I don't sense this is a problem with Nix, though I could be wrong.

 

Taking players in the draft based on a single good year, a good year plus a good combine, or on performances against inferior competition. Nix has avoided all these errors, and seems to take a more disciplined approach to the draft.

 

Leading up to the draft, I wrote that Wannstedt is the kind of guy who will take a big, hard-hitting SS, or SS/LB tweener in the fourth or fifth round, ask him to add a few pounds, and turn him into a linebacker. Apparently Wannstedt is the kind of guy who will take a LB in the fourth and the fifth round! Between them, Nix and Wannstedt seem to have gotten much better football players than one would expect from fourth or fifth round picks! What they did there also speaks to Nix's discipline. He filled the need at linebacker while conserving his earlier, more valuable picks for use on players at more important, premium positions.

 

As of right now, Nix seems like a far better GM and a longer-term, more strategic thinker than the Bills have had since Polian.

 

This posting is a bit long for my short attention span. But I agree with most of the observations and opinions. Good analysis!