Message to Chan: RUN THE BALL!

[John Cocktosten]

I couldn't be more thrilled with the direction of this draft. Building depth on the Offensive line and at LB was great to see. However, I am still concerned about Fitz and the WRs on this team. I don't expect Jones or anyone else on this team to suddenly turn into a great #2 option. Maybe Easley but it's tough to count on a guy who doesn't have a catch in 2 years. Moreover, Stevie isn't a true #1, he's a great #2. So what is the solution? RUN THE BALL MORE!!!

 

There were to many times last year when Chan fell in love with the passing game and would go stretches without commiting to the run. A couple of stats to support this:

-When the Bills went over 30 passing attempts, Fitz's comp% was at 55% and QB rating dropped to 70. He also had his highest int ratio at 5.4%

-When Fitz threw the ball 30 times or less? Fitz's comp% jumped to 65% and QB rating went up to 80. Here is the biggest stat, his int% dropped 2 full points to 3.4%.

 

Here is the stat that says it all to me:

-During the Bills 7 game losing streak they passed for over 30 attempts in everyone of those losses.

-The game they broke the streak against Denver? 27 passing attemps, 28 rushing attempts.

-The Following week against the Pats? 46 passing versus only 20 rushes.

 

Wins and loses:

-The Bills were 4-1 when limiting Fitz to 30 attempts or less. The 1 loss came against the Giants when Fitz badly underthrew a wide open Stevie twice for picks.

-The Bills were 2-9 when Fitz threw the ball more than 30 times.

 

As far as I am concerned, the season depends solely on Chan's play calling. Do you want to try to win with Fitz's erratic arm or on the backs of Freddy and CJ? BOTTOM LINE, RUN THE BALL AND THE BILLS WILL RETURN TO THE PLAYOFFS.

[Casey D]

I couldn't be more thrilled with the direction of this draft. Building depth on the Offensive line and at LB was great to see. However, I am still concerned about Fitz and the WRs on this team. I don't expect Jones or anyone else on this team to suddenly turn into a great #2 option. Maybe Easley but it's tough to count on a guy who doesn't have a catch in 2 years. Moreover, Stevie isn't a true #1, he's a great #2. So what is the solution? RUN THE BALL MORE!!!

 

There were to many times last year when Chan fell in love with the passing game and would go stretches without commiting to the run. A couple of stats to support this:

-When the Bills went over 30 passing attempts, Fitz's comp% was at 55% and QB rating dropped to 70. He also had his highest int ratio at 5.4%

-When Fitz threw the ball 30 times or less? Fitz's comp% jumped to 65% and QB rating went up to 80. Here is the biggest stat, his int% dropped 2 full points to 3.4%.

 

Here is the stat that says it all to me:

-During the Bills 7 game losing streak they passed for over 30 attempts in everyone of those losses.

-The game they broke the streak against Denver? 27 passing attemps, 28 rushing attempts.

-The Following week against the Pats? 46 passing versus only 20 rushes.

 

Wins and loses:

-The Bills were 4-1 when limiting Fitz to 30 attempts or less. The 1 loss came against the Giants when Fitz badly underthrew a wide open Stevie twice for picks.

-The Bills were 2-9 when Fitz threw the ball more than 30 times.

 

As far as I am concerned, the season depends solely on Chan's play calling. Do you want to try to win with Fitz's erratic arm or on the backs of Freddy and CJ? BOTTOM LINE, RUN THE BALL AND THE BILLS WILL RETURN TO THE PLAYOFFS.

Your statistical analysis is misleading IMO. In most games the defense was so poor that 31 plus points was needed to win on relatively few possessions. This problem was exacerbated in several games when the team was down 14-21 points early in the second quarter. In those situations, the running game was shelved for obvious reasons, and its not surprising you lose when you throw alot because you are throwing alot when you have gotten far behind. I agree there were some instances where the game was tight and we could have run more, but largely we threw too much because our defense was awful, it was not a strategic decision. Improve the defense-- as the FO is doing-- it will take pressure off the O to score all the time and the running game will be used more. Just my opinion... CD

[Chandler#81]

Impossible to argue this John, given your stats. But the League has turned into a pass-1st game and Chan LOVES it. This can't be overstated enough. But, the 7 game loing streak coincided with FJax's absence and the great season start were -in reality- games that easily could have gone the other way. If FJax scores vs NE*, Brady has time to drive. The Oakland outcome wasn't even officially decided until the stadium was empty...

I agree with your belief, but I'm old school and it's not how the game is played today.

IMO, a healthy Freddy and OL this year will lower Fitz' pass attempts - by a couple throws.

[8-8 Forever?]

Your statistical analysis is misleading IMO. In most games the defense was so poor that 31 plus points was needed to win on relatively few possessions. This problem was exacerbated in several games when the team was down 14-21 points early in the second quarter. In those situations, the running game was shelved for obvious reasons, and its not surprising you lose when you throw alot because you are throwing alot when you have gotten far behind. I agree there were some instances where the game was tight and we could have run more, but largely we threw too much because our defense was awful, it was not a strategic decision. Improve the defense-- as the FO is doing-- it will take pressure off the O to score all the time and the running game will be used more. Just my opinion... CD

 

Agreed. Chan is a balanced attack guy. When you fall behind you throw, not run. The other team will run it when up 14 points. If you run as well, the game is over very quickly and you run out of possessions.

[John Cocktosten]

Your statistical analysis is misleading IMO. In most games the defense was so poor that 31 plus points was needed to win on relatively few possessions. This problem was exacerbated in several games when the team was down 14-21 points early in the second quarter. In those situations, the running game was shelved for obvious reasons, and its not surprising you lose when you throw alot because you are throwing alot when you have gotten far behind. I agree there were some instances where the game was tight and we could have run more, but largely we threw too much because our defense was awful, it was not a strategic decision. Improve the defense-- as the FO is doing-- it will take pressure off the O to score all the time and the running game will be used more. Just my opinion... CD

 

The Bills had their most rushing attempts in the 4th qtr. 279 passes in the first half of games compared to 191 rushes. 200 rushes in the 2nd half of games. Run the ball more early and the defense won't be so gassed.

[Casey D]

The Bills had their most rushing attempts in the 4th qtr. 279 passes in the first half of games compared to 191 rushes. 200 rushes in the 2nd half of games. Run the ball more early and the defense won't be so gassed.

I just think you are being too dogmatic-- I like the running game as much as the next person. We were behind a lot in many games early. Three runs and a punt when you are losing 17-0 in the second quarter is not going to happen over and over if you are coaching-- you've got to get points fast. Your idea is good in theory, it is not when the game is unfolding as it did many times last year after the 5-2 start. But whatever.

[John Cocktosten]

The top 3 teams leading the NFL in rushing last year all made the playoffs. Denver, 49ers and Houston. Cinci, Atlanta and Baltimore were all in the top 10 as well. Look at their QBs compared to the teams that led the NFL in passes. Detroit, NO, NE were the top 3 in passes.

 

Fitz is not Stafford, Brees or Brady. He's more like Smith, Yates or Tebow. You can win by running the ball and controlling the clock. Giving your defense rest. Injuries happen when players are gassed.

[RealityCheck]

I couldn't be more thrilled with the direction of this draft. Building depth on the Offensive line and at LB was great to see. However, I am still concerned about Fitz and the WRs on this team. I don't expect Jones or anyone else on this team to suddenly turn into a great #2 option. Maybe Easley but it's tough to count on a guy who doesn't have a catch in 2 years. Moreover, Stevie isn't a true #1, he's a great #2. So what is the solution? RUN THE BALL MORE!!!

 

There were to many times last year when Chan fell in love with the passing game and would go stretches without commiting to the run. A couple of stats to support this:

-When the Bills went over 30 passing attempts, Fitz's comp% was at 55% and QB rating dropped to 70. He also had his highest int ratio at 5.4%

-When Fitz threw the ball 30 times or less? Fitz's comp% jumped to 65% and QB rating went up to 80. Here is the biggest stat, his int% dropped 2 full points to 3.4%.

 

Here is the stat that says it all to me:

-During the Bills 7 game losing streak they passed for over 30 attempts in everyone of those losses.

-The game they broke the streak against Denver? 27 passing attemps, 28 rushing attempts.

-The Following week against the Pats? 46 passing versus only 20 rushes.

 

Wins and loses:

-The Bills were 4-1 when limiting Fitz to 30 attempts or less. The 1 loss came against the Giants when Fitz badly underthrew a wide open Stevie twice for picks.

-The Bills were 2-9 when Fitz threw the ball more than 30 times.

 

As far as I am concerned, the season depends solely on Chan's play calling. Do you want to try to win with Fitz's erratic arm or on the backs of Freddy and CJ? BOTTOM LINE, RUN THE BALL AND THE BILLS WILL RETURN TO THE PLAYOFFS.

You had me at "run the ball!".

[Meathead]

doesnt matter of chan LOVES it or not, thats just the way it is now. this is now an exclusively passing league

 

when i say exclusively im not saying teams never run. and some teams choose to be primarily a running team but that doesnt mean its a good formula any longer. name one running team that has won a title recently. im waiting. any time now

 

the last team that even made it to the sb without an elite qb? 2007 the bears and rex grossman

 

the last team to actually win the sb without an elite qb? 2003 with brad johnson and the bucs

 

this has ruined the game imo. now you either have a qb or you have close to zero chance to win a title. the qb position should be important, but not THAT important. now it overshadows EVERYTHING. the pack and the cheaters made it last season with two of the weakest defenses in the entire league. the pack defense was dead last

 

fans like scoring more than their team having a real chance to win i guess. personally i wish theyd go back to letting the dbacks cover down the field and thus put more emphasis on the rest of the offense and defense. it wouldnt just be pass pass pass run pass pass pass all the time. more teams would have a chance

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I couldn't be more thrilled with the direction of this draft. Building depth on the Offensive line and at LB was great to see. However, I am still concerned about Fitz and the WRs on this team. I don't expect Jones or anyone else on this team to suddenly turn into a great #2 option. Maybe Easley but it's tough to count on a guy who doesn't have a catch in 2 years. Moreover, Stevie isn't a true #1, he's a great #2. So what is the solution? RUN THE BALL MORE!!!

 

There were to many times last year when Chan fell in love with the passing game and would go stretches without commiting to the run. A couple of stats to support this:

-When the Bills went over 30 passing attempts, Fitz's comp% was at 55% and QB rating dropped to 70. He also had his highest int ratio at 5.4%

-When Fitz threw the ball 30 times or less? Fitz's comp% jumped to 65% and QB rating went up to 80. Here is the biggest stat, his int% dropped 2 full points to 3.4%.

 

Hey, John. First up, I don't disagree with your overall conclusion, as I think is clear from my posting history. I feel very strongly that if Gailey employed a more balanced attack, we'd have been better off.

The Texans and 49ers both switched from a pass-heavy to run-heavy offense, the Texans in response to QB injury. Result: playoffs.

The Bills didn't adjust their attack in response to QB injury. Result: 7 game slide. I put that on Chan. The burden is on him to prove he really can adjust his game to his players. He hasn't shown that to me.

 

However, I think you have cause and effect somewhat backwards in your analysis. I don't think we "limited" the number of times Fitz threw the ball. I think in the games we won, where the attack was more balanced, we were able to make a running game work.

In the games we lost, Fitz was passing madly because we were far behind and the running game wasn't working (see Bengals)

 

So the real question becomes...in those games, would the running game have worked more if Chan stuck with it more? Or did we totally lack a running game that would work, unless we were first able to pass successfully to set up the run?

This is a legitimate question - I personally think it could have worked better if given more of a chance. Others here disagree, and I really appreciate their viewpoint.

 

Either way, IMO we have done two important things this off-season. First, focus on improving the D, because if we aren't so far behind, Gailey will stay in his comfort zone to employ a more balanced attack.

Second, focus on improving the OL such that we can employ a run-first offense if we choose.

 

Again, I completely agree with your conclusion that Chan should RUN THE DAMN BALL! more. I just feel you have the cause and effect mixed on # of Fitz passes vs W-L. There is a correlation, true, but correlation is not causation.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

doesnt matter of chan LOVES it or not, thats just the way it is now. this is now an exclusively passing league

 

when i say exclusively im not saying teams never run. and some teams choose to be primarily a running team but that doesnt mean its a good formula any longer. name one running team that has won a title recently. im waiting. any time now

 

How do you define "title"?

 

The Texans won their division and went to the divisional round this year with a run-first formula

The 49ers went to the conference championship, same.

 

Both lost, but then, so did 4 other teams in the divisional round, many of the pass first teams.

 

I'm not sure what that proves?

 

PS I do call BS on the "exclusively passing league". Pass-heavy league, pass-focused league, those I'd buy

Edited April 29, 2012 by Hopeful

[Malazan]

This is one of those silly magical stats that don't actually work like 'Turnovers' and 'Time of Possession'. They aren't 'causal' stats despite many people thinking they are that, they're 'effectual' stats. What I mean by that is, if you're playing well enough to win, you get these stats a lot of the time so people start shouting, "RUN THE BALL! WIN TURNOVER BATTLE! KEEP THE BALL!". Great, so how do you make it happen? You have to be able to make those things happen in a game.

 

It's like saying you should cross the finish line of a race first and forgetting you have to run there from the starting line.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Your statistical analysis is misleading IMO. In most games the defense was so poor that 31 plus points was needed to win on relatively few possessions. This problem was exacerbated in several games when the team was down 14-21 points early in the second quarter. In those situations, the running game was shelved for obvious reasons, and its not surprising you lose when you throw alot because you are throwing alot when you have gotten far behind. I agree there were some instances where the game was tight and we could have run more, but largely we threw too much because our defense was awful, it was not a strategic decision. Improve the defense-- as the FO is doing-- it will take pressure off the O to score all the time and the running game will be used more. Just my opinion... CD

 

Well, I agree that the statistical analysis is misleading though I'd state the reasons somewhat differently - I think there's a correlation but the cause of both (the excessive passing, and the loss) lies in the poor D and being so far behind

 

That said, there were a number of games where we were either close, or behind by a deficit we could easily have overcome with a more balanced attack - something like 14 points with 3 quarters remaining - and Chan totally shelved a running game that had been working for reasons inexplicable to me. So I can't quite agree completely that we threw too much because our defense was awful, I think it was a strategic decision of Chan's at times and all the more puzzling because in our offense, the major driver for passing attack (increased efficiency - pass plays result in more distance per play) is greatly diminished, we're a short passing offense and the time-per-yard differential between our runs and our passes isn't that great.

 

I do agree with your conclusion that improving the D should take pressure off the O and result in an improved O.

 

I'm also concerned that the Bills need better offensive QC or perhaps an offensive QC with the chops to smack Gailey upside the head with his stat sheets and say "what's up with your HAID, boy?" It's a flaw in our system that HC = OC so there is no one with status to question Chan.

[John Cocktosten]

doesnt matter of chan LOVES it or not, thats just the way it is now. this is now an exclusively passing league

 

when i say exclusively im not saying teams never run. and some teams choose to be primarily a running team but that doesnt mean its a good formula any longer. name one running team that has won a title recently. im waiting. any time now

 

the last team that even made it to the sb without an elite qb? 2007 the bears and rex grossman

 

the last team to actually win the sb without an elite qb? 2003 with brad johnson and the bucs

 

this has ruined the game imo. now you either have a qb or you have close to zero chance to win a title. the qb position should be important, but not THAT important. now it overshadows EVERYTHING. the pack and the cheaters made it last season with two of the weakest defenses in the entire league. the pack defense was dead last

 

fans like scoring more than their team having a real chance to win i guess. personally i wish theyd go back to letting the dbacks cover down the field and thus put more emphasis on the rest of the offense and defense. it wouldnt just be pass pass pass run pass pass pass all the time. more teams would have a chance

 

The year the Saints won they had over 2000 yards rushing and were 6th in the league. When the Bills played them that year we were holding their passing game in check and then they ran it down our throats and destroyed us. And you're proving my point, we don't have Brees. We have an inaccurate QB who is very limited. So I don't care what the rest of the league is doing, we don't have the QB. I'd rather have a balanced offense where Freddy/CJ are the focus, not Fitz.

 

One more thing to think about is the way NFL defenses are being built. Smaller faster DE's and more DBs activated. So why not counter that with more run heavy sets and wear down defenses?

[UConn James]

It's no longer a case of "Two out of three things that can happen when you throw the ball are bad."

 

It can go incomplete, it can be intercepted, it can be caught.... but now, because of rules changes, there's a higher-than-ever chance you get a 50-yard pass interference penalty.

 

Those kind of contact rules have effectively made this a throwing league.

[John Cocktosten]

Can someone please explain how a better defense is going to improve Fitz's lazy mechanics, inaccuracy, horrible deep throws and poor decision making?

 

11ints in the first.

12 ints in the 2nd.

 

288 passes in the 1st half. 191 rushes.

290 in the 2nd. 200 rushes.

 

Chan is not balanced. He puts too much faith in Fitz early on in games which puts the Bills in bad spots. The defense would be better if we could sustain drives and control the ball.

Edited April 29, 2012 by John Cocktosten

[thewildrabbit]

I couldn't agree more

 

This team even under Jaruon who was noted for building a strong running game in Chicago comes to Buffalo and all he wants to do is throw throw throw with young inexperienced QB's no less.

 

Then Chan Gailey gets here and he does the exact same thing as Turk Schonert and AVP with calling mostly shotgun passing plays. It would be different if the Bills had a Manning, Brees or Brady, but they don't! Many fans here think that Fitz is only average and yet Gailey calls mostly passing plays with a great RB and average QB, make no sense. Fitz needs all the help he can get to win games, what he doesn't need is to shoulder the entire game.

 

I personally think Fitz is an above average QB who has been mired in bad teams throughout his career. The only thing I have my doubts about concerning Fitz is his ability to win big games when he finally does have a decent team around him. We saw some very good QB play last season in the first part of the year with everyone healthy. We also saw some amazing QB play against Cincy, Baltimore and Pittsburgh in 2010. But we don't know is if Fitz can win a playoff game because he has never been in that situation.

 

 

Considering how good Fred Jackson is it makes perfect sense to me to become a dominate running team vs a trying to constantly throw out of shotgun and empty backfield sets with a so called average Journeyman QB. I look at teams like the Texans with their awesome running attack and defense. The Ravens are also noted to have that great defense and ground game. The NY Jets 2 years ago also had that formula and went to the AFC championship with it. This past year they tried throwing more and they didn't even make the playoffs.

 

I would like Gailey to go back and look at what made the 90's Bills so dominate, it was Thurman Thomas and that running game that rushed more times them Kelly threw most years. Ted Marchibroda was a genius utilizing a spread offense, the no huddle and the old Redskin "counter trey" running scheme. In case you don't know what that is, its when the O linemen take one step one way and then go the other. That makes the defenders commit t to one direction and then need to reverse to the other. This slight delay in direction gives the offense an edge in getting the defenders off balance and out of position. This might not seem like a big deal but it is because with each play they never know if that first step will be the actual direction. so even if they pause for a millisecond its still a slight delay.

 

 

Lastly, even when your team gets behind by 30 points...just continue to run the same offense and not try and constantly throw to catch up. usually when opposing teams get a big lead they tend to forget about stopping the run and focus on defending the pass. they go constant nickle and dime coverages and blitz more. Which usually makes them more susceptible to the run. Once the RB breaks off a few big runs and then the opposing defense crowds the line to stop the run, then pass. It was definitely disconcerting to watch an experienced HC like Gailey fall victim to the try and catch up by throwing syndrome game after game the second half of last season. Which leads me to believe we are wasting our time with this thread.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I couldn't agree more

 

This team even under Jaruon who was noted for building a strong running game in Chicago comes to Buffalo and all he wants to do is throw throw throw with young inexperienced QB's no less.

 

Then Chan Gailey gets here and he does the exact same thing as Turk Schonert and AVP with calling mostly shotgun passing plays. It would be different if the Bills had a Manning, Brees or Brady, but they don't! Many fans here think that Fitz is only average and yet Gailey calls mostly passing plays with a great RB and average QB, make no sense. Fitz needs all the help he can get to win games, what he doesn't need is to shoulder the entire game.

 

I personally think Fitz is an above average QB who has been mired in bad teams throughout his career. The only thing I have my doubts about concerning Fitz is his ability to win big games when he finally does have a decent team around him. We saw some very good QB play last season in the first part of the year with everyone healthy. We also saw some amazing QB play against Cincy, Baltimore and Pittsburgh in 2010. But we don't know is if Fitz can win a playoff game because he has never been in that situation.

 

 

Considering how good Fred Jackson is it makes perfect sense to me to become a dominate running team vs a trying to constantly throw out of shotgun and empty backfield sets with a so called average Journeyman QB. I look at teams like the Texans with their awesome running attack and defense. The Ravens are also noted to have that great defense and ground game. The NY Jets 2 years ago also had that formula and went to the AFC championship with it. This past year they tried throwing more and they didn't even make the playoffs.

 

I would like Gailey to go back and look at what made the 90's Bills so dominate, it was Thurman Thomas and that running game that rushed more times them Kelly threw most years. Ted Marchibroda was a genius utilizing a spread offense, the no huddle and the old Redskin "counter trey" running scheme. In case you don't know what that is, its when the O linemen take one step one way and then go the other. That makes the defenders commit t to one direction and then need to reverse to the other. This slight delay in direction gives the offense an edge in getting the defenders off balance and out of position. This might not seem like a big deal but it is because with each play they never know if that first step will be the actual direction. so even if they pause for a millisecond its still a slight delay.

 

 

Lastly, even when your team gets behind by 30 points...just continue to run the same offense and not try and constantly throw to catch up. usually when opposing teams get a big lead they tend to forget about stopping the run and focus on defending the pass. they go constant nickle and dime coverages and blitz more. Which usually makes them more susceptible to the run. Once the RB breaks off a few big runs and then the opposing defense crowds the line to stop the run, then pass. It was definitely disconcerting to watch an experienced HC like Gailey fall victim to the try and catch up by throwing syndrome game after game the second half of last season. Which leads me to believe we are wasting our time with this thread.

 

Pretty much this. Now folks will counter argue that today's NFL is a far more pass-oriented league than the mid-'90s, yet as John rooster!@#$!@ pointed out, most of today's top teams have a strong ground game. I've also seen convincing analysis making your point that I bolded above. You gave several good examples - Texans, Ravens - you could well have added the '9ers who, under whats-his-name, tried to utilize Alex Smith in a pass-centric offense. Same Alex Smith - different year - more run-focused offense racking up ~25% more rushing yards - much better result.

Edited April 29, 2012 by Hopeful

[peterpan]

John is dead on. Often times we would go into halftime averaging 8-12 yards per carry and Gailey would only call 5 run plays in the second half. Don't try that old excuse 'when you are down you have to throw it' because that only holds true in the alst two mins or if you getting blown out, which wasn't the case.

 

Besides, we were down most of the time because Gailey wouldn't run the ball in the first place!!!!! 'We passed the ball too much which got us in a huge hole so we had to pass to get ourselves out of it'

[Chandemonium]

It's no longer a case of "Two out of three things that can happen when you throw the ball are bad."

 

It can go incomplete, it can be intercepted, it can be caught.... but now, because of rules changes, there's a higher-than-ever chance you get a 50-yard pass interference penalty.

 

Those kind of contact rules have effectively made this a throwing league.

That's always been a poor argument against the passing game anyway IMO, because the same is true in the running game: you can fumble, you can lose yards, or you can gain yards. With the offense being at such a "disadvantage" in both the running and passing games,it's a wonder teams ever score.