In this NEW NFL are the Bills a day late & a dollar short?

[yungmack]

 

Super Mario is to the defense what Fitz is to the offense. One gives the opposing QB so much less time to throw, the other gets the ball out so quickly it negates the pass rush against him. The problem with the current Bills offense is it is very limited in what it can do with only one decent WR, one decent TE and a patchwork O line.

 

I'm more disappointed in the fact that Nix doesn't have the balls or the vision to trade up and get a Blackmon- a Kuechly - a Kalil, or even Claiborne. Ya gotta pound the table for the blue chippers in this league. The thing is with the NFL draft is the further you go into it, the bigger percentage for failure you have. Its like guy at 5-7 are long shots to develop into anything, so why not trade those picks? Even Nix has a history of not finding the late round gems the last two years.

Really? Stevie is only decent? And just how much better value to the Bills are Blackmon, Kuechly, Kalil and Claiborne than Gilmore? Kuechly, Blackmon, Claiborne and Gilmore are to me basically interchangeable picks when considering the Bills' needs this year and were probably equally rated by OBD. I would add that Mark Baron was probably also in their mix. So why would you sacrifice two, three, four or more picks to move up when, by staying pat, you could get one of those guys? And, considering the Bills only had one pick, some of us were bound to be disappointed no matter who they took.

 

The Bills top needs this year are LT, WR, LB, CB and maybe S. With that in mind, it seems to me the only sensible player to trade up for would have been Kalil. But I think it's clear now the Vikes never had any intention of letting him get away. I'd bet your soul to the devil that they got assurances from the Browns that they wouldn't use the 3 pick to take Kalil. So with him out of the realm of possibility, LT was scratched (none worthy of pick 10), as was WR (plenty of good ones all around the draft) leaving LB, CB and S as the positions of need, with CB probably the most pressing need. And they got one of the best rated ones.

 

I don't know, but it seems to me things worked out just fine for Buddy and the Bills. And it cost them nothing to get one of the premier players in the draft.

[Rico]

What you see with Buddy Nix is what you get. Like I stated in other threads Buddy Nix covets his draft picks like he does his children and doesn't want to part with them. So get used to it, it isn't going to ever change with him as GM.

 

 

.Clearly the Bills looked at the board at 10 and went BPA. My only thought is the Bills had bigger needs at other positions then CB.

 

Nix was probably horrified by what he saw in his secondary from the last two years. The biggest problem with the last two years was a lack of pass rush and letting your DB's hang out to dry for 60 min. With the addition of super Mario, Anderson and a healthy Merriman it should change the complexion of that secondary almost completely.

 

Super Mario is to the defense what Fitz is to the offense. One gives the opposing QB so much less time to throw, the other gets the ball out so quickly it negates the pass rush against him. The problem with the current Bills offense is it is very limited in what it can do with only one decent WR, one decent TE and a patchwork O line.

 

I'm more disappointed in the fact that Nix doesn't have the balls or the vision to trade up and get a Blackmon- a Kuechly - a Kalil, or even Claiborne. Ya gotta pound the table for the blue chippers in this league. The thing is with the NFL draft is the further you go into it, the bigger percentage for failure you have. Its like guy at 5-7 are long shots to develop into anything, so why not trade those picks? Even Nix has a history of not finding the late round gems the last two years.

Trading up for Kuechly would've been a complete disaster & epic fail... worse than burning a #2 and a #3 for friggin' Pos. That would've been a Marv Levy move.

 

The DL already got addressed in FA, and in a draft with no Patrick Willis, CB is the only other D position worthy of burning a top-10 pick on imo. Still would've preferred Floyd, but Gilmore is safer I guess.

[thewildrabbit]

Seriously? You typed that? That's a nice, big, absolutely meaningless and baseless opinion on a message board. Congrats.

 

(p.s. Gilmore is a blue-chipper)

 

No he isn't, I've seen grades on him from the 27th to 15th to 8th and more, but nothing that says he should be a top 5 pick, NEVER! . a blue chipper is a top 5 pick, instant starter and impact player, pro bowler and believed to be on the roster for 8-10 years. This player moved up on draft boards recently.

Who knows if this kid will even be a starting CB this year.

 

 

Your opinion is equally meaningless to me, I'm rather used to you whining at me when I don't agree what everything that transpires at OBD

 

Trading up for Kuechly would've been a complete disaster & epic fail... worse than burning a #2 and a #3 for friggin' Pos. That would've been a Marv Levy move.

 

The DL already got addressed in FA, and in a draft with no Patrick Willis, CB is the only other D position worthy of burning a top-10 pick on imo. Still would've preferred Floyd, but Gilmore is safer I guess.

The Bills still need to stop the run, which was worse then their pass rush the last two years...tough to believe I know. Blackmon- Kalil- Claiborne would be instant big impact starters as would be the LB. JMO

Edited April 27, 2012 by Fear the Beard

[eball]

No he isn't, I've seen grades on him from the 27th to 15th to 8th and more, but nothing that says he should be a top 5 pick, NEVER! . a blue chipper is a top 5 pick, instant starter and impact player, pro bowler and believed to be on the roster for 8-10 years. This player moved up on draft boards recently.

Who knows if this kid will even be a starting CB this year.

 

 

Your opinion is equally meaningless to me, I'm rather used to you whining at me when I don't agree what everything that transpires at OBD

 

I've never seen "blue chipper" defined in those terms. I'm pretty confident the Bills view Gilmore as a starter, impact player, potential all-pro, and at the position for hopefully many years.

 

As for my "whining" -- I'll continue to call out posters who throw out baseless attacks such as yours (Nix doesn't have balls or vision), and I'm very comfortable with my measured optimism over what Nix & Co. have been building over the past 2.5 years.

[K-9]

No he isn't, I've seen grades on him from the 27th to 15th to 8th and more, but nothing that says he should be a top 5 pick, NEVER! . a blue chipper is a top 5 pick, instant starter and impact player, pro bowler and believed to be on the roster for 8-10 years. This player moved up on draft boards recently.

Who knows if this kid will even be a starting CB this year.

 

 

Your opinion is equally meaningless to me, I'm rather used to you whining at me when I don't agree what everything that transpires at OBD

 

 

The Bills still need to stop the run, which was worse then their pass rush the last two years...tough to believe I know. Blackmon- Kalil- Claiborne would be instant big impact starters as would be the LB. JMO

 

Just to be clear, you've seen draftnik RANKINGS of him. They are a far cry from the actual scouting grades assigned by professionals in the field.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited April 27, 2012 by K-9

[Beerball]

Can you link me to where Buddy said they received calls to move down? I heard the move up calls, but I must have missed the move down comment.

My bad, I intended to post this link in my original.

 

They got their guy right? Why bounce around if he is right there? We got a dude who started day one in college, NEVER missed a game, has guarded the best college wide outs in the game( A.J.Green, Julio Jones) as a young starter. It's hard to think that they are behind becouse of not trading all over. This has been the best off season in a long time. In Chix we trust.

They will tell us that they got their guy. Everybody does that.

 

My concern is with Nix' statements, not the player they picked.

[BillnutinHouston]

OP: your hypothesis is impossible to make (fairly) as an outsider.

 

Are you saying that if Buddy had moved he would not be "a day late and a dollar short" - regardless of the outcome? Do you advocate moving even if you get fleeced by the other team?

 

If Buddy declined a trade because he saw that he was being hosed, is he "a day late and a dollar short" or is he protecting the interests of the team?

Edited April 27, 2012 by BillnutinHouston

[Mr. WEO]

Every year there are draft day winners anointed. 3 years from now, when the real results of the draft are known, the actual winners will be quite different.

 

Personally I think Cleveland was smart to give up virtually nothing to get the Richardson because he's got the highest likelihood of impact in the entire class. I also think they were incredibly stupid to spend a first rounder on a 28 year old QB.

There other QB is of no real use to them. Weedon will be an upgrade. If they only get 7 or 8 years out of a starting 1st round QB instead of 9 or 10, is that so bad right now?

[Rico]

No he isn't, I've seen grades on him from the 27th to 15th to 8th and more, but nothing that says he should be a top 5 pick, NEVER! . a blue chipper is a top 5 pick, instant starter and impact player, pro bowler and believed to be on the roster for 8-10 years. This player moved up on draft boards recently.

Who knows if this kid will even be a starting CB this year.

 

 

Your opinion is equally meaningless to me, I'm rather used to you whining at me when I don't agree what everything that transpires at OBD

 

 

The Bills still need to stop the run, which was worse then their pass rush the last two years...tough to believe I know. Blackmon- Kalil- Claiborne would be instant big impact starters as would be the LB. JMO

I think you can find comparable talent on Day 2 at OLB... not the case with CB. Also JMO

[thewildrabbit]

I think you can find comparable talent on Day 2 at OLB... not the case with CB. Also JMO

 

Mayock ranked him as the best cover LB he has ever seen, and went on to state that because the Bills biggest rival is currently the NE Patriots, and with their stable of big tight ends that the Bills would have been wise to take a LB that is actually able to drop back and cover them properly.

 

I highly doubt you will find talent like that in round two or later, or they wouldn't be in round two. There is a reason why he went in the top ten, and probably why the Panthers took him right before the Bills selected.

[Malazan]

Mayock ranked him as the best cover LB he has ever seen,

 

ROFL! You got me! All this time I thought your posts in this thread were serious.

[thewildrabbit]

Just to be clear, you've seen draftnik RANKINGS of him. They are a far cry from the actual scouting grades assigned by professionals in the field.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Each team grades players differently, I realize that. I didn't get those results from joe schmoes website. I quoted draftscout.com(15th), scout.com (27th) and Mike Mayock( 8th) all highly reputable scouting graders

 

Gil Brandt also had the kid ranked at the 20th best player in the draft, PFW ranked him at 25. So looking at the majority of the boards and knowing that he moved up on most boards recently, picking at 10 it looks like a reach to me.

 

Like I said, it looked like the Bills went BPA on their board. I just happen to think they had more pressing needs at other positions then CB.

[BEAST MODE BABY!]

Beerball- Based on how last year's injuries affected our team, I think our need for depth outweighs our need for impact players. Don't you agree?

 

Not to mention the draft is a crap shoot. So, you know, I'll take 50% on 10 picks over 50% on 8 picks.

 

I'm more disappointed in the fact that Nix doesn't have the balls or the vision to trade up and get a Blackmon- a Kuechly - a Kalil, or even Claiborne. Ya gotta pound the table for the blue chippers in this league. The thing is with the NFL draft is the further you go into it, the bigger percentage for failure you have. Its like guy at 5-7 are long shots to develop into anything, so why not trade those picks? Even Nix has a history of not finding the late round gems the last two years.

 

And I am pretty sure at least one of those "blue chippers" will bust out in the next few years.

Edited April 27, 2012 by BEAST MODE BABY!

[Orton's Arm]

Put the Gilmore pick aside for a second if you can and think about what happened in yesterday's first round. Trades were fast and furious. Teams moving down allowing another team to target their guy then moving back up etc. It was a fun night from what I was able to see. There were some big winners (Minny, NE IMO) and some head scratchers (Cleveland is #1 in this category to me, Tampa #2).

 

What last night showed us was this is the new NFL draft. The CBA makes it very attractive for teams to move around. The Bills stood pat. They listened to offers to trade up and they fielded calls to move down. The fact that they didn't may tell us that they got their guy, but it might also tell us that Buddy is Buddy. His philosophy is take the BPA. Did we miss the boat last night? We'll never know for sure because the misinformation will continue, but these comment do concern me:

 

 

We had calls to move up or down, but we didn't do it. Why? Because you run a risk. Moving up you 'swap two guys for one & if you miss on that one' huh? So you're defeated before you even start? You might miss? What faith do you have in this revamped scouting department headed by your heir apparent?

 

'We did not entertain moving down' Why not? We did not entertain tells me it was not an option. We didn't think about it. Why? If you are concerned about missing on your picks (if you miss on that one) why not get more picks?

 

The NEW NFL has shown us that you go get your guy. CB was a need. Did they have Gilmore rated above Kuechly? They have (IMO) a bigger need at LB than CB.

 

IF we stand pat in round 2 how many players of need will the Bills miss out on? Upshaw? Martin? Glenn? David? Jeffery? Sanu?

 

Please take the blinders off and don't read this as a woe is us post. Does Buddy's draft philosophy need to change with the times?

If the Bills were going to move up, it should have been for Tannehill--at least assuming they liked him as much as Gil Brandt does--for Kalil, or maybe even for Blackmon. Taking a LB early in the first round is generally an error, at least with Wannestedt's 4-3 defense. Wannestedt is the kind of guy who will take a hard hitting college SS in the fourth or fifth round, and will turn him into a linebacker. Wannestedt tends not to use early picks on LBs, so that those early picks can be used on DLs and DBs instead. That philosophy makes sense: Wannestedt seldom blitzes his LBs, and you wouldn't normally put a LB in one-on-one pass coverage against a pass catching TE. If a defensive player isn't rushing the passer, and isn't covering someone one-on-one, it's very difficult for him to justify a top-10 draft pick.

 

That being said, I think you and I are on a similar page in terms of your larger point. A GM should walk into the draft with a flexible mindset and strategy; and should be open to trading either up or down. Even if a GM ultimately decides to stand pat, it should be because he's seriously considered and rejected his available trade options. Not because his mind was closed to trading in the first place.

 

My sense is that the Bills saw #1 CB as the single biggest missing piece in their defense, and are very comfortable with Gilmore. Considering that so many mocks had him going in the top 8, I think that trading down would have caused them to lose a player they really liked and (correctly) felt they needed. (McGee and Florence are nearing the ends of their careers, and McKelvin is a bust. Going into the draft, the only long-term solution at CB was Aaron Williams.)

 

The defensive line and defensive secondary are deeply interlinked. If the DL can consistently get to the QB in three seconds, and if the secondary is good enough to consistently force him to hold the ball for four seconds, the result is very good pass defense! Everyone talks about how a good DL makes the secondary better, and that's perfectly true. But the reverse is also true: a good secondary makes the DL better. The Bills' pass rush just became more effective because of Gilmore.

 

If Tannehill becomes a franchise QB, a precious opportunity will have been wasted. Nothing comes close in value to a franchise QB! But let's say for the sake of argument that the Bills didn't think Tannehill would become a franchise QB. If that's true, then standing pat and doing what they did may well have been their best option, given the information available at the time. Trading up for Kalil would have been too expensive. Trading down would have made it very difficult to use their first round pick on a player who a) plays a premium position, and b) fills a need. Plenty of DEs and DTs were taken in picks 11 - 20, and DE in particular is a premium position. But it's not a position of need! Floyd went at 13th overall, but maybe the Bills were turned off by his alcohol concerns. After Gilmore was off the boards, only one additional CB was taken in the first round. (Dre Kirkpatrick, 17th overall, to the Chiefs.) I vaguely remember reading about character concerns with Kirkpatrick. Once Kalil was off the board, no offensive linemen were taken until 23rd overall (Reiff) and 24th overall (DeCastro). The Bills only have one major hole on the OL, and that's at LT. DeCastro would not have addressed that, and there are serious questions about whether Reiff would have either.

 

Trading down from the Gilmore pick could have put the Bills in a desert. If they weren't willing to take a player with serious red flags (Floyd and Kirkpatrick), weren't willing to reach for a potential non-LT (Reiff), and wanted to fill a premium position (QB, LT, RDE, CB, WR), and wanted their pick to fill a need (anything other than a S, RB, interior OL, RT, or DL), then they would likely have been very underwhelmed by the available choices from 11 - 20. I would have been willing to trade down into that desert territory anyway, but only for a first round pick in next year's draft.

 

Maybe Nix didn't consider trading down because he recognized and wanted to avoid the above-described desert. But his comment could also be taken to imply a lack of flexible thinking about trading. That lack of flexibility implies serious concerns for the future, even though the Gilmore decision itself looks like it was probably the best or second-best option available (depending on one's opinion of Tannehill).

[cody]

I like the way the draft worked.

 

Teams that think they are a player or two away and have depth (Patriots/Cowboys) traded picks to get guys they wanted.

Teams that know they are rebuilding and need many good players (Rams) traded for picks and now they have an opportunity to fill holes.

 

The Bills have 10 picks - I do not expect all 10 to make the 2012 roster so they do not need more picks in the later rounds.

On the other hand, the Bills are not deep enough to give up a second or third round pick.

 

The Bills proved this off-season that they will adjust their philosophy when needed.

 

 

 

Look at the way the draft has gone. They have a shot at one of the 2nd tier OTs. Would you rather have Gilmore & Glenn/Martin/Adams or Kalil & nobody.

[Kelly the Dog]

Mayock ranked him as the best cover LB he has ever seen, and went on to state that because the Bills biggest rival is currently the NE Patriots, and with their stable of big tight ends that the Bills would have been wise to take a LB that is actually able to drop back and cover them properly.

 

I highly doubt you will find talent like that in round two or later, or they wouldn't be in round two. There is a reason why he went in the top ten, and probably why the Panthers took him right before the Bills selected.

Actually what Mayock said was he was the best inside zone dropping cover LB coming out of college. Keuchly would play outside on the Bills. Not to mention that Mayock is a BC graduate. I do very much respect Mayock though. Gilmore is going to play the TEs.

[thewildrabbit]

Actually what Mayock said was he was the best inside zone dropping cover LB coming out of college. Keuchly would play outside on the Bills. Not to mention that Mayock is a BC graduate. I do very much respect Mayock though. Gilmore is going to play the TEs.

Actually what he said was...

 

Draft Analysis:

 

Mayock's take: "I call him Clark Kent, and he can turn into Superman on Saturdays and Sundays. He's one of the cleanest players in this draft. His instincts and his pass-coverage ability might be the best of any linebacker I've seen come out of the draft."

 

Kuechly had one of the most productive careers, in terms of tackles, in recent memory for a collegiate linebacker. Twelve tackles for loss is a testament to his overall ability and instincts to get in the backfield. He is more of an athlete than given credit for and has simply been a machine throughout his college career. Kuechly has all the tools to be an immediate starter in the NFL and shore up the middle of a defense.

 

Mayock has him listed as an inside LBer, Nix stated he could play any LB position for the Bills.

 

Like I said, there is a reason he went at #9. and talent like that you won't find in round 2 is what I was stating to Rico

 

[Delete This Account]

the way i see it, the Bills had targeted three players: S Barron, CB Gilmore and LB Kuechly, and possibly in that order. If Kalil or Blackmon fell to them, the Bills would go after them in what proved to be an unlikely scenario.

 

once it got to 10, and Barron and Kuechly were off the board, the Bills weren't in a position to trade down in fear of losing one of the players they had rated as top 10 picks.

 

now if two of the three guys were still available, i'd guess the Bills would entertain trading back. but with only one left, there was no way Buddy would risk that chance.

 

CB is a need, and it's no surprise from my perspective that they took Gilmore to address both immediate and long-term needs.

and i can understand Buddy's logic in regards to not giving up picks to move up in the draft because not only do you lose out on a player, the pressure is on to make sure the player you selected pans out.

reading between the lines, i don't think there was enough separation between say Kalil/Blackmon and the other three targets to trade up. and trading down, i don't think, was an option because at what expense do you gather picks only to lose out on the guy you targeted?

 

it's sound logic in my opinion.

 

jw

Edited April 28, 2012 by john wawrow

[Doc]

the way i see it, the Bills had targeted three players: S Barron, CB Gilmore and LB Kuechly, and possibly in that order. If Kalil or Blackmon fell to them, the Bills would go after them in what proved to be an unlikely scenario.

 

once it got to 10, and Barron and Kuechly were off the board, the Bills weren't in a position to trade down in fear of losing one of the players they had rated as top 10 picks.

 

now if two of the three guys were still available, i'd guess the Bills would entertain trading back. but with only one left, there was no way Buddy would risk that chance.

 

CB is a need, and it's no surprise from my perspective that they took Gilmore to address both immediate and long-term needs.

and i can understand Buddy's logic in regards to not giving up picks to move up in the draft because not only do you lose out on a player, the pressure is on to make sure the player you selected pans out.

reading between the lines, i don't think there was enough separation between say Kalil/Blackmon and the other three targets to trade up. and trading down, i don't think, was an option because at what expense do you gather picks only to lose out on the guy you targeted?

 

it's sound logic in my opinion.

Makes sense. Joe Buscaglia also said the Bills' top-rated players after the top-6 players were Barron, Gilmore, and Kuechly, in that order. So you are corroborating what he said (or he's corroborating what you said).

 

And since they got a guy they think can be a top LT in the 2nd round anyway...