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Some interesting info from TMQ


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http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2012/story/_/id/7846997/tmq-takes-rightful-turn-mocking-mock-drafts

 

Incredible Insider Tip: Draft Quarterbacks: "It's a quarterback league" -- everyone says this of today's NFL. Yet a surprising number of NFL teams behave as though they don't believe it, not investing in quarterbacks nor trying over and over again until they find a quality signal-caller.

 

Consider: Of last season's 12 playoff teams, eight started a quarterback drafted in the first round, including three starting a quarterback drafted first overall. Three others started a second-round quarterback. Only one of the 12 playoff teams, the New England Patriots, reached the postseason without a first- or second-round-drafted quarterback on the roster. Based on 11 of 12 playoff teams having high-drafted quarterbacks, you'd think there would be a line forming to call the names of quarterbacks.

 

Yet last season there were five NFL teams that did not have a first- or second-round drafted quarterback on the roster: Buffalo, Cleveland, Dallas, Kansas City and New England. And of the teams lacking a highly drafted quarterback, only one reached the postseason.

 

Perhaps you're thinking: "A team can always get a quarterback via trade or in free agency." Of the 12 playoff entrants, 11 started a quarterback who arrived via the draft and has been with the same team since his rookie season. Meanwhile of the three teams that in 2011 had no quarterback on the roster that they had drafted -- Buffalo, Seattle and Washington -- none made the postseason. Not just drafting quarterbacks high, but getting quarterbacks as rookies and sticking with them through thick and thin, closely associates with NFL success.

 

Even though there is overwhelming evidence that using high draft choices on quarterbacks is essential to victory in the modern NFL, while trying to economize on quarterbacks is a formula for watching the playoffs from a couch, some teams try to skimp. It seems all but inevitable that at least one quarterback-hungry club will pass on a highly regarded quarterback in this week's NFL draft, and then by next Christmas be lamenting its also-ran status.

 

One reason not all NFL teams go strong for quarterbacks is that coaches and general managers are concerned with avoiding criticism. Drafting a quarterback high exposes the coach and general manager to jeering if the player fails, whereas if a highly drafted lineman or linebacker becomes a bust, few remember.

 

Being wrong about JaMarcus Russell, a quarterback drafted first overall, led to Oakland head coach Lane Kiffin being fired after a single season. Being wrong about Ryan Leaf, a quarterback drafted second overall, ended the career of San Diego general manager Bobby Beathard. Being wrong about Akili Smith, a quarterback drafted third overall, all but ended the career of Cincinnati coach Bruce Coslet. In contrast hardly anyone remembers what coach or general manager (or even what team) picked Dwayne Robertson, Mike Williams, Tyson Jackson or Aaron Curry, major-disappointment linemen or linebackers chosen with recent top-five draft selections.

 

Want to win an NFL playoff game? Invest high draft choices in a quarterback, then stick with him. Want to keep your name from being mentioned on sports-talk radio? Pass on quarterbacks high in the draft.

 

BTW - he also recommends that Indy take Kate Upton with the first overall pick :wub: :wub:

Edited by JÂy RÛßeÒ
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For whatever reason Buffalo just does not seem to get this memo...can you forward to Buffalo front office please :)

 

Add this to the bottom thought: PS: Tannehill is too risky at #10, so grab a playmaker then trade our 3rd for Mallet.

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For whatever reason Buffalo just does not seem to get this memo...can you forward to Buffalo front office please :)

 

Add this to the bottom thought: PS: Tannehill is too risky at #10, so grab a playmaker then trade our 3rd for Mallet.

It's funny to me that your response to the OP is to encourage the Bills to trade for a QB who was NOT drafted in the 1st or 2nd rounds.

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For whatever reason Buffalo just does not seem to get this memo...can you forward to Buffalo front office please :)

 

Add this to the bottom thought: PS: Tannehill is too risky at #10, so grab a playmaker then trade our 3rd for Mallet.

 

For some reason, Buffalo never seems to be in the position to pick that '10-15 year guy' that Buddy often talks about. They've reached on a couple in the past and were burned (JP, Rob Johnson to name two).

 

It was interesting to hear what Billick said the other day. Jamarcus Russell was the highest rated player, EVER, on their board. That's Ozzie Newsome's board. Had they been in the position to get him, they would have. As would ANY team that needed a QB. Can you imagine if the Bills had taken him?

 

If that QB ain't there, take that playmaker you mentioned. EVERY time.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited by K-9
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Going back to 2007 (the last 5 drafts), these are the 1st round QBs the Bills had available and "passed" on selecting:

 

2007 - Brady Quinn

2008 - Joe Flacco

2009 - Josh Freeman

2010 - Tim Tebow, and i'll toss in Jimmy Clausen because of how high he was perceived

2011 - Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder

 

Does anyone honestly think any of those guys would have lead the Bills to the playoffs, or would you feel better with anyone of them currently leading the Bills over Fitzpatrick? I doubt it. But io guess we should have taken one so we "drafted a 1st round QB." (I will admit its way too early to pass judgement on the 2011 QBs, but none of them lit the league on fire their rookie season)

 

Once again, Gregggggg Easterbrook thinks he's stumbled on some great wisdom of the NFL, yet anyone with half a brain can easily debunk his claims as nothing more than hot air.

Edited by Ramius
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It's funny to me that your response to the OP is to encourage the Bills to trade for a QB who was NOT drafted in the 1st or 2nd rounds.

 

Yeah I know...but Mallet is a first round talent who slipped because of off field potential issues, so the 3rd round official pick of him is irrelevant to me. Plus, in this particular draft, there is not a great option that will be available in the first at QB IMO...too many question marks on Tannehill. So while I agree with the post, I don't like our choices early in this draft. Although there could be a prospect in the 2nd depending on who is there. I can see Tannehill falling to the 2nd much like Claussen, Mallet, etc who were projected top of the first...I would have less exception with the pick there.

 

And, NE was the ONLY team to make the playoffs (and then the SB) with a non first or second round QB...in fact they have reached 5 and won 3. So, Mallet being a 3rd round official pick does not worry me, especially since NE took him and he has a year to learn from BB and Brady...that alone makes him a much better prospect, not to mention he is a top 10 talent.

 

Going back to 2007 (the last 5 drafts), these are the 1st round QBs the Bills had available and "passed" on selecting:

 

2007 - Brady Quinn

2008 - Joe Flacco

2009 - Josh Freeman

2010 - Tim Tebow, and i'll toss in Jimmy Clausen because of how high he was perceived

2011 - Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder

 

Does anyone honestly think any of those guys would have lead the Bills to the playoffs, or would you feel better with anyone of them currently leading the Bills over Fitzpatrick? I doubt it. But io guess we should have taken one so we "drafted a 1st round QB." (I will admit its way too early to pass judgement on the 2011 QBs, but none of them lit the league on fire their rookie season)

 

Once again, Gregggggg Easterbrook thinks he's stumbled on some great wisdom of the NFL, yet anyone with half a brain can easily debunk his claims as nothing more than hot air.

 

Flacco, Locker, and Freeman would be very nice additions to this team...and Locker I think is going to be the real deal once he is ready to take over. Tenn is doing a great job not rushing the kid in and developing him old school behind proven vet, much like they did with McNair and not making the same mistake they made with V. Young.

Edited by Alphadawg7
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Going back to 2007 (the last 5 drafts), these are the 1st round QBs the Bills had available and "passed" on selecting:

 

2007 - Brady Quinn

2008 - Joe Flacco

2009 - Josh Freeman

2010 - Tim Tebow, and i'll toss in Jimmy Clausen because of how high he was perceived

2011 - Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder

 

Does anyone honestly think any of those guys would have lead the Bills to the playoffs, or would you feel better with anyone of them currently leading the Bills over Fitzpatrick? I doubt it. But io guess we should have taken one so we "drafted a 1st round QB." (I will admit its way too early to pass judgement on the 2011 QBs, but none of them lit the league on fire their rookie season)

 

Once again, Gregggggg Easterbrook thinks he's stumbled on some great wisdom of the NFL, yet anyone with half a brain can easily debunk his claims as nothing more than hot air.

 

well, i know it was a down year but going back to the end of the 2010 season when he played LIGHTS OUT, freeman had me pretty excited. id be very optimistic with him, a better locker room, and an offensive minded coach.

 

and i hated the idea of him when he was coming out.

 

the ones last year may be early to judge. we will see. and im not a big tebow fan, but the guy seems to win.

Edited by NoSaint
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"Perhaps you're thinking: "A team can always get a quarterback via trade or in free agency." Of the 12 playoff entrants, 11 started a quarterback who arrived via the draft and has been with the same team since his rookie season. Meanwhile of the three teams that in 2011 had no quarterback on the roster that they had drafted -- Buffalo, Seattle and Washington -- none made the postseason. Not just drafting quarterbacks high, but getting quarterbacks as rookies and sticking with them through thick and thin, closely associates with NFL success."

 

Not to nit pick, but New Orleans didn't get their QB through draft and either did Houston... so thats 10 out of 12.

 

And sorry but a 1 year sampling does not an argument make.

 

In 2010: 5 teams out of 12 had a QB they didn't draft

In 2009: 5 teams out of 12 had a QB they didn't draft

Edited by Wayne Cubed
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Yeah I know...but Mallet is a first round talent who slipped because of off field potential issues, so the 3rd round official pick of him is irrelevant to me. Plus, in this particular draft, there is not a great option that will be available in the first at QB IMO...too many question marks on Tannehill. So while I agree with the post, I don't like our choices early in this draft. Although there could be a prospect in the 2nd depending on who is there. I can see Tannehill falling to the 2nd much like Claussen, Mallet, etc who were projected top of the first...I would have less exception with the pick there.

 

And, NE was the ONLY team to make the playoffs (and then the SB) with a non first or second round QB...in fact they have reached 5 and won 3. So, Mallet being a 3rd round official pick does not worry me, especially since NE took him and he has a year to learn from BB and Brady...that alone makes him a much better prospect, not to mention he is a top 10 talent.

 

 

 

Flacco, Locker, and Freeman would be very nice additions to this team...and Locker I think is going to be the real deal once he is ready to take over. Tenn is doing a great job not rushing the kid in and developing him old school behind proven vet, much like they did with McNair and not making the same mistake they made with V. Young.

Russell Wilson will have a more productive NFL career than MAllet, IMO.......get him in the 3rd :thumbsup:

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Going back to 2007 (the last 5 drafts), these are the 1st round QBs the Bills had available and "passed" on selecting:

 

2007 - Brady Quinn

2008 - Joe Flacco

2009 - Josh Freeman

2010 - Tim Tebow, and i'll toss in Jimmy Clausen because of how high he was perceived

2011 - Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder

 

Does anyone honestly think any of those guys would have lead the Bills to the playoffs, or would you feel better with anyone of them currently leading the Bills over Fitzpatrick? I doubt it. But io guess we should have taken one so we "drafted a 1st round QB." (I will admit its way too early to pass judgement on the 2011 QBs, but none of them lit the league on fire their rookie season)

 

Once again, Gregggggg Easterbrook thinks he's stumbled on some great wisdom of the NFL, yet anyone with half a brain can easily debunk his claims as nothing more than hot air.

 

After carefully evaluating the reach/value ratios for each of those players, according to my tier-1 positional ranking formula, I have concluded we should have taken Cam Newton when we had the chance.

 

GO BILLS!!!

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Going back to 2007 (the last 5 drafts), these are the 1st round QBs the Bills had available and "passed" on selecting:

 

2007 - Brady Quinn

2008 - Joe Flacco

2009 - Josh Freeman

2010 - Tim Tebow, and i'll toss in Jimmy Clausen because of how high he was perceived

2011 - Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder

 

Does anyone honestly think any of those guys would have lead the Bills to the playoffs, or would you feel better with anyone of them currently leading the Bills over Fitzpatrick? I doubt it. But io guess we should have taken one so we "drafted a 1st round QB." (I will admit its way too early to pass judgement on the 2011 QBs, but none of them lit the league on fire their rookie season)

 

Once again, Gregggggg Easterbrook thinks he's stumbled on some great wisdom of the NFL, yet anyone with half a brain can easily debunk his claims as nothing more than hot air.

 

 

Easterbrook rants and rants....not a fan at all....agree with most of this but Josh Freeman, I would take him over Fitz all day everyday

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Going back to 2007 (the last 5 drafts), these are the 1st round QBs the Bills had available and "passed" on selecting:

 

2007 - Brady Quinn

2008 - Joe Flacco

2009 - Josh Freeman

2010 - Tim Tebow, and i'll toss in Jimmy Clausen because of how high he was perceived

2011 - Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder

 

Does anyone honestly think any of those guys would have lead the Bills to the playoffs, or would you feel better with anyone of them currently leading the Bills over Fitzpatrick? I doubt it. But io guess we should have taken one so we "drafted a 1st round QB." (I will admit its way too early to pass judgement on the 2011 QBs, but none of them lit the league on fire their rookie season)

 

Once again, Gregggggg Easterbrook thinks he's stumbled on some great wisdom of the NFL, yet anyone with half a brain can easily debunk his claims as nothing more than hot air.

 

:thumbsup:

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Russell Wilson will have a more productive NFL career than MAllet, IMO.......get him in the 3rd :thumbsup:

 

I like Wilson, and would be ok with him but I think he goes later than the third

 

...and he wants a guy with a history of drug problems....a statue who has stone legs... who knows if he can read pro defenses....:doh: If I'm not mistaken he was also pushing for Brian Brohm...

 

Yes, I pushed for Brohm over the most untalented joke of a QB I have seen, Trent Edwards. And Brohm would be a better starter than Edwards who was afraid to even throw the ball. I never said Brohm was going to be this or that, I simply said he has yet to get some game time so lets see what he can do because Trent (and Fitz) had been horrendous in their time up to that point.

 

And you just proved how LITTLE you know about Mallet in your comments, so I guess there isn't much to discuss with you. I mean your statue comment is so absurd...he is faster than Manning and Brady...so who the hell cares about his 40 time. Did Montana, Brady, Manning, etc have bad careers because they were slow? No, because they are excellent at their footwork. Just because players like Vick dominate Madden does not mean its true in the NFL. And, watch some film on Mallet, he can avoid the rush and scramble more than people think because all they go buy is some blow hard comment about him being a statue.

 

Drug problems were alleged, and he was in college. Doesn't mean it will be an on going issue in the NFL, and all signs so far say he has been a model player in NE. And in his preseason time, he picked apart pro defenses (yes backups, but he was also playing with backups) and is the best pure passer in last years draft.

 

Who knows if any untested QB can read pro defenses...so would rather RISK our #10 pick on Tannehill who is already said to be project NOT ready for the NFL who you also have no idea if he can read pro defenses, especially since his knocks include questionable decision making...or use a lower round pick on a kid who is a better passer, incredible size, has learned behind Brady and BB for a year, has 1 season under his belt, shined in his rookie preseason outings, and his a top 10 TALENT but only fell because of some risk of an off field issue but has thus far shown no signs of trouble?

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Going back to 2007 (the last 5 drafts), these are the 1st round QBs the Bills had available and "passed" on selecting:

 

2007 - Brady Quinn

2008 - Joe Flacco

2009 - Josh Freeman

2010 - Tim Tebow, and i'll toss in Jimmy Clausen because of how high he was perceived

2011 - Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder

 

Does anyone honestly think any of those guys would have lead the Bills to the playoffs, or would you feel better with anyone of them currently leading the Bills over Fitzpatrick? I doubt it. But io guess we should have taken one so we "drafted a 1st round QB." (I will admit its way too early to pass judgement on the 2011 QBs, but none of them lit the league on fire their rookie season)

 

Once again, Gregggggg Easterbrook thinks he's stumbled on some great wisdom of the NFL, yet anyone with half a brain can easily debunk his claims as nothing more than hot air.

 

I thought last year there was a lot of speculation the Bills were trying to get back into the first round to get Ponder, or would grab him in the second if available. Recall Ponder lit up the Senior Bowl(was it?), the game Chan coached

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Going back to 2007 (the last 5 drafts), these are the 1st round QBs the Bills had available and "passed" on selecting:

 

2007 - Brady Quinn

2008 - Joe Flacco

2009 - Josh Freeman

2010 - Tim Tebow, and i'll toss in Jimmy Clausen because of how high he was perceived

2011 - Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder

 

Does anyone honestly think any of those guys would have lead the Bills to the playoffs, or would you feel better with anyone of them currently leading the Bills over Fitzpatrick? I doubt it. But io guess we should have taken one so we "drafted a 1st round QB." (I will admit its way too early to pass judgement on the 2011 QBs, but none of them lit the league on fire their rookie season)

 

Once again, Gregggggg Easterbrook thinks he's stumbled on some great wisdom of the NFL, yet anyone with half a brain can easily debunk his claims as nothing more than hot air.

I'd take Freeman first, Flacco second, and Fitzpatrick third if I was building for the next 10 years. For next year only, I'd probably flip Flacco and Freeman, and Fitz would be a lot closer to both.

 

Not to nit pick, but New Orleans didn't get their QB through draft and either did Houston... so thats 10 out of 12.

 

And sorry but a 1 year sampling does not an argument make.

 

In 2010: 5 teams out of 12 had a QB they didn't draft

In 2009: 5 teams out of 12 had a QB they didn't draft

Yep, Easterbrook sure loves cherry-picking. So disingenuous, and he's smart enough to know better. But if you look at long-term results, the success rates are highest for first round QBs, then a step down to second round QBs, then a step down to third, then a big step down from there. (Except for the sixth round, which looks like a goldmine thanks to Brady, Hasselbeck, and Bulger.) So it seems like Easterbrook has a valid point.

 

EXCEPT! The supply of QBs is fixed; the only way for more teams to draft QBs in the first round is to take them from the second round or later. This does not improve them as prospects, except in that a first round QB will get more investment and chances from the team, and that probably does improve the chance of success a little bit, but not very much. Bust rates are already very high for first round QBs. This is because of two factors. First, it's really hard to be a good NFL QB, and really hard to project who can become a good NFL QB. Second, it's so important to have a good QB, and so hard to find one, that teams are willing to take big chances to try to find one. This is also why first round Safeties and Guards almost never bust: because the positions aren't as important, and replacements can be found relatively easily, teams aren't willing to spend a first-rounder on a S or G unless he's a can't-miss prospect.

 

So what's my point? Easterbrook's argument is terrible, because teams are already prioritizing QB about as much as possible. Any team that doesn't have an established QB will usually talk themselves into a QB in the first round. And if they don't, it usually means that they have such poor scouting reports on the available QBs that they can't even talk themselves into it. And the scouting reports, while not perfect, are generally pretty good, because QBs get less and less successful as you go deeper into the draft. (Again, with the exception of the 6th round, but I'm certain that that's just sampling error. Give us a couple hundred years to get an appropriate sample size, and the 6th round will drop right back into place.)

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I'd take Freeman first, Flacco second, and Fitzpatrick third if I was building for the next 10 years. For next year only, I'd probably flip Flacco and Freeman, and Fitz would be a lot closer to both.

 

 

Yep, Easterbrook sure loves cherry-picking. So disingenuous, and he's smart enough to know better. But if you look at long-term results, the success rates are highest for first round QBs, then a step down to second round QBs, then a step down to third, then a big step down from there. (Except for the sixth round, which looks like a goldmine thanks to Brady, Hasselbeck, and Bulger.) So it seems like Easterbrook has a valid point.

 

EXCEPT! The supply of QBs is fixed; the only way for more teams to draft QBs in the first round is to take them from the second round or later. This does not improve them as prospects, except in that a first round QB will get more investment and chances from the team, and that probably does improve the chance of success a little bit, but not very much. Bust rates are already very high for first round QBs. This is because of two factors. First, it's really hard to be a good NFL QB, and really hard to project who can become a good NFL QB. Second, it's so important to have a good QB, and so hard to find one, that teams are willing to take big chances to try to find one. This is also why first round Safeties and Guards almost never bust: because the positions aren't as important, and replacements can be found relatively easily, teams aren't willing to spend a first-rounder on a S or G unless he's a can't-miss prospect.

 

So what's my point? Easterbrook's argument is terrible, because teams are already prioritizing QB about as much as possible. Any team that doesn't have an established QB will usually talk themselves into a QB in the first round. And if they don't, it usually means that they have such poor scouting reports on the available QBs that they can't even talk themselves into it. And the scouting reports, while not perfect, are generally pretty good, because QBs get less and less successful as you go deeper into the draft. (Again, with the exception of the 6th round, but I'm certain that that's just sampling error. Give us a couple hundred years to get an appropriate sample size, and the 6th round will drop right back into place.)

 

Also, he's really confusing a general trend (first round QBs are good) with specific team choices (should we take Brady Quinn?) If you figure you're going to need a QB in the next three years, yeah, you should budget a first round pick for it. If you're drafting in one season with a questionable QB set to start, you compare each option to that guy, not the general trend of, "Oh, our guy was a 4th rounder, so surely, we should replace him with a 1st rounder since those guys tend to win."

 

He's also playing all sorts of other disingenuous games here. Three teams had no QBs on the roster that they drafted. So? We would have been out of this group if we kept Levi Brown around. Most teams with a drafted QB on the roster didn't make the playoffs either. It's hard to argue that it's a factor. And "on the roster" isn't starting.

 

For what it's worth, the Giants didn't draft Eli Manning either, San Diego did, and then they traded for him. That's really neither here nor there. But just wait until the Redskins are 4-9 or something and Easterbrook notes that you should prize draft picks and never trade up, even for a QB who's only one player.

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Going back to 2007 (the last 5 drafts), these are the 1st round QBs the Bills had available and "passed" on selecting:

 

2007 - Brady Quinn

2008 - Joe Flacco

2009 - Josh Freeman

2010 - Tim Tebow, and i'll toss in Jimmy Clausen because of how high he was perceived

2011 - Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder

 

Does anyone honestly think any of those guys would have lead the Bills to the playoffs, or would you feel better with anyone of them currently leading the Bills over Fitzpatrick? I doubt it. But io guess we should have taken one so we "drafted a 1st round QB." (I will admit its way too early to pass judgement on the 2011 QBs, but none of them lit the league on fire their rookie season)

 

Once again, Gregggggg Easterbrook thinks he's stumbled on some great wisdom of the NFL, yet anyone with half a brain can easily debunk his claims as nothing more than hot air.

 

Nice how you mentioned Clausen but left out Cincinnati Red and wasn't Flacco and Tebow in the playoffs last season? Trying too hard to make a point, perhaps?

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Going back to 2007 (the last 5 drafts), these are the 1st round QBs the Bills had available and "passed" on selecting:

 

2007 - Brady Quinn

2008 - Joe Flacco

2009 - Josh Freeman

2010 - Tim Tebow, and i'll toss in Jimmy Clausen because of how high he was perceived

2011 - Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, Christian Ponder

 

Does anyone honestly think any of those guys would have lead the Bills to the playoffs, or would you feel better with anyone of them currently leading the Bills over Fitzpatrick? I doubt it. But io guess we should have taken one so we "drafted a 1st round QB." (I will admit its way too early to pass judgement on the 2011 QBs, but none of them lit the league on fire their rookie season)

 

Once again, Gregggggg Easterbrook thinks he's stumbled on some great wisdom of the NFL, yet anyone with half a brain can easily debunk his claims as nothing more than hot air.

 

I would gladly take Josh Freeman over Fitz. Asking whether Freeman would have led the Bills to the playoffs is asking the wrong question. Sometimes even good quaterback play is not going to elevate a bad team into the playoffs. Last year the Bills were both bad on defense and offense. Their roster was also very thin as demonstrated by them losing eight out of their last nine games. The more relevant question to ask regarding the qbs is who is more talented and who will, in the long run, make the team better. There is no doubt that Freeman would be a better franchise qb than Fitz.

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