OCinBuffalo Posted April 24, 2012 Posted April 24, 2012 Wouldn't the first part of your post confirm throwing out the old chart? Obviously the point values have changed which changes the chart. Also I'm not sure what trade I've put out that was turned down so I'm not sure where you came up with that. Im sure ive been called an idiot but not for that reason. This article came out Monday so I'm surprised you "only hear" the old chart is useless. Also I would like to add that if the stories are correct the browns were going to beat the redakins offer however the rams had set rules of 1 offer per team. I'm on my phone so it is kind of hard to post links. No, it would confirm what I said: modify the first round points, and retain the 2-7 chart, and/or modify it slightly to be in line with the first round modifications. Throwing out the chart completely is not a reasonable option, until somebody tells me what is going to replace it. It doesn't matter what you have put out. This is not about you, unless you want it to be. I can accommodate you, but I doubt you'll like it. For years, posters have tried to wish away the draft chart....so that their dopey "X* said the Bills could have traded down, but we didn't, therefore, Ralph is cheap, Buddy is asleep, and the Bills are moving to LA" thread scenario would be right. The draft chart has been the single most useful too for destroying these stupid threads. Example: posters who have declared that the RG3 trade, or anything the Redskins have done, was a good idea, get destroyed by the draft chart. Posters who said the Sanchez trade up was a good idea, get destroyed by the draft chart. Life would be so much more convenient for these posters, if the draft chart didn't exist. *X, as in media people who are either being played by teams, agents, and players, or, because if they don't write what they are told, they will lose access to these NFL people. Again, I ask: how many times did Mario Williams leave Buffalo, and who do you think were the "sources" on that "story"?
section122 Posted April 24, 2012 Author Posted April 24, 2012 To follow OC's point, you can't throw out the draft value chart. It is a tool, a starting point. You refer to it to reaffirm some loose parameters. The actual trade is always based on what the market will bear or put differently, teams make the deal they're willing to make. When the Bills traded up for the pick they used on Poz, they actually overpaid but they liked the player so much that they felt it was worth it. If you examine draft day trades over the years you'll find that many of them don't strictly adhere to the chart but you can bet the chart was referred to at some point in the process. I'm trying to think of an analogy but I can't come up with one right now. Anyone? I think you guys are taking to literally the statement of throwing out the old draft value chart. I took it as the numbers were useless not so much that the tool was useless if that makes sense. All picks still have value but the number value of those picks are not the same, therefore the picks to trade would be different, therefore the old chart doesn't mean much. A trade value chart has a use just not the old one with the old numbers.
San Jose Bills Fan Posted April 24, 2012 Posted April 24, 2012 I think you guys are taking to literally the statement of throwing out the old draft value chart. I took it as the numbers were useless not so much that the tool was useless if that makes sense. All picks still have value but the number value of those picks are not the same, therefore the picks to trade would be different, therefore the old chart doesn't mean much. A trade value chart has a use just not the old one with the old numbers. Yeah I agree. I was trying to think up an analogy but my brain is too foggy from the benadryl I took last night. It still has some value… it's just not the definitive tool.
OCinBuffalo Posted April 24, 2012 Posted April 24, 2012 Yeah I agree. I was trying to think up an analogy but my brain is too foggy from the benadryl I took last night. It still has some value… it's just not the definitive tool. In a few years after the draft, it becomes absolutely definitive. The draft chart said the Sanchez trade up was ridiculous. We can now definitively say that it was ridiculous, based on his play, but the draft chart told us that the day he was drafted. It works the other way as well: if you look at the draft grade vs. actual play, and where ALL players were drafted, over a ten year period, and generate your draft trade chart off of that....there's a good chance it's going to be quite definitive. It's a relatively straightforward OLAP task. However, now that the first round has been skewed in terms of $/player, and the year 5 rider, you'd have to adjust the model to account for that, but this is also a relatively easy task. The only issue would be, you'd have to keep looking at your adjustments, and you couldn't confirm their precision for 4-5 years.
ICanSleepWhenI'mDead Posted April 24, 2012 Posted April 24, 2012 I thought the article below was an interesting attempt to evaluate whether the "old draft chart" makes sense and how it could be improved. It doesn't take into account the recent changes in contracts for first round players and the varying costs of the 5th year option: http://harvardsportsanalysis.wordpress.com/2011/11/30/how-to-value-nfl-draft-picks/ OTOH, it makes me wonder if the Patriots habit of trading down early in the draft is based on some sort of similar analysis.
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