QCity Posted April 23, 2012 Posted April 23, 2012 While I agree with your overall point, I don't think that scouts have the time during the season to break down tapes of every target on a weekly basis. There isn't enough time in the week to do that. What they likely do is analyze a few games of the players they will watch live during the coming week, file away the notes and move on to the next player. Plus, I doubt that scouts have access to the full body of coaches' game film until the season is over. The scouts use the college season to gather the data, and use the offseason to analyze the data. Man I read this great article a while ago (was long like a small book) on the life of scouts, and I can't find the link to it now. I found another small one but it doesn't detail much. The life isn't glamorous at all. But yeah, not only do they get coaches' tape, they also meet with coaches 6 days a week, and try to watch as many practices as they can for their targeted players. I think they said the average nfl scout watches something like 60 hours of film a week during the season. Crazy.
Kelly the Dog Posted April 23, 2012 Posted April 23, 2012 Man I read this great article a while ago (was long like a small book) on the life of scouts, and I can't find the link to it now. I found another small one but it doesn't detail much. The life isn't glamorous at all. But yeah, not only do they get coaches' tape, they also meet with coaches 6 days a week, and try to watch as many practices as they can for their targeted players. I think they said the average nfl scout watches something like 60 hours of film a week during the season. Crazy. Yeah, scouts lead ridiculous lives during the season. But I still think that it is 90% acquiring information and formulating often very fluid opinions on players because players play differently during the course of the year, some regress, some get better, some are amazingly consistent. And it isn't until after the season that they can really get grades on these guys. Which is why Nix said last week the first Bills draft board comes up sometime in January. It's like doing research for a book, you are gathering information and often formulating your story as you go along and learn more, but you're constantly writing and rewriting and rewriting until you have a finished product.
Ramius Posted April 23, 2012 Posted April 23, 2012 Great posts by Kelly and GG. I do have a problem with scouts like this guy who say nothing but "Player X is overrated. Player Y isn't as good as thought." This is a business where what, 80% of draftees turn out to be "failures." Anyone can predict a player will suck and won't pan out and still be right most of the time. Wake me up when the scout starts predicting correctly which players will turn out good and i'll pay attention.
MikeSpeed Posted April 23, 2012 Posted April 23, 2012 Gilmore was also a return guy and a wildcat QB while at SC. Wouldn't it be nice to save Brad Smith's roster spot for someone who may actually contribute?
section122 Posted April 23, 2012 Posted April 23, 2012 It seems to me that Gillmore was Astro's pick for the Bills in the 2nd round many many times. Now all of a sudden he is geting top 10 consideration! I'm more than a little bit surprised/nervous about a jump that big this late.
Mark Long Beach Posted April 23, 2012 Posted April 23, 2012 Great posts by Kelly and GG. I do have a problem with scouts like this guy who say nothing but "Player X is overrated. Player Y isn't as good as thought." This is a business where what, 80% of draftees turn out to be "failures." Anyone can predict a player will suck and won't pan out and still be right most of the time. Wake me up when the scout starts predicting correctly which players will turn out good and i'll pay attention. I agree that picking people to fail isn't so big a stretch. However, These anonymous quotes are from people EMPLOYED by NFL teams. There is NO way that they're going to give out glowing review on lesser prospects that they feel they might get. It'd be stupid.
JESSEFEFFER Posted April 23, 2012 Posted April 23, 2012 I will give PFW the benfefit of the doubt on their sources and it might make for an interesting discussion but it's tough to respect opinions offered by people unwilling to put their name to it. I remember a section that criticized the Bills' hiring of Buddy Nix. It was rather insulting to him really. It sounded like someone with an agenda taking a pot shot.
GG Posted April 23, 2012 Posted April 23, 2012 Yeah, scouts lead ridiculous lives during the season. But I still think that it is 90% acquiring information and formulating often very fluid opinions on players because players play differently during the course of the year, some regress, some get better, some are amazingly consistent. And it isn't until after the season that they can really get grades on these guys. Which is why Nix said last week the first Bills draft board comes up sometime in January. It's like doing research for a book, you are gathering information and often formulating your story as you go along and learn more, but you're constantly writing and rewriting and rewriting until you have a finished product. Exactly. I should also clarify that even if the individual scouts have access to the weekly game tapes, there's no way all that information is filtered through the entire scouting department until the season is over. It is very much like a funnel, where the field guys do the heavy lifting during the season, but no way do Whaley & Nix have the information they need until January and that's when the elimination begins, and why you see opinions crystallize the closer you move to the draft.
bouds Posted April 23, 2012 Posted April 23, 2012 After reading that you get the impression that everyone is overrated.
1billsfan Posted April 23, 2012 Posted April 23, 2012 (edited) Here's a good read on Gilmore... http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/shutdown-50-11-stephon-gilmore-cb-south-carolina-141620475.html If you go to the bottom, they have articles on other players. After reading the articles on both Kuechly and Kirkpatrick, I would much rather the Bills pick Gilmore over those two players who have bigger question marks. Sometimes there's good reason why a guy either rises or falls. Because the move is actually warranted. Edited April 23, 2012 by 1billsfan
Kelly the Dog Posted April 23, 2012 Posted April 23, 2012 Here's a good read on Gilmore... http://sports.yahoo....-141620475.html If you go to the bottom, they have articles on other players. After reading the articles on both Kuechly and Kirkpatrick, I would much rather the Bills pick Gilmore over those two players who have bigger question marks. Sometimes there's good reason why a guy either rises or falls. Because the move is actually warranted. There was a very good point regarding the combine numbers in that article which doesn't seem to be mentioned enough, which was... A 4.37 forty time and impressive performances in combine drills proved that he had the measurables to match his on-field effort and aggressiveness. When a guy isn't all that productive or explosive a performer, or only does it for a short period of time, and then hits the combine with numbers that wow everyone and he shoots up the charts, that should be a red flag and buyer beware all over it. And a lot of people rightfully so point it out. But, conversely, if a guy like Gilmore is a very productive and explosive and a sound player, and then hits the combine with numbers that wow everyone and""match his on field" stuff, and then he shoots up the charts, it could be a green flag. That this guy has it all. And his ascension may be warranted. Mostly, a player's game tape, like Nix says, is 70% of his draft grade, and Gilmore's game tape is going to look very good to scouts. Add the speed and size and measureables, it's no wonder he is rated where he seemingly is.
QCity Posted April 23, 2012 Posted April 23, 2012 Here's another report on Gilmore (and a very good site for scouting players).
Lurker Posted April 23, 2012 Posted April 23, 2012 If you are a scout, player assessment is an ongoing process that begins well before the season even starts. Your entire week is spent breaking down tape - every single week of the season. There isn't a period after the season ends where scouts say, "Ok, now let's get down to the real analysis" (most of the second-rate drafniks seem to say this). Wild post-season fluctuations are the result of the combine/pro day/workouts, character issues, or the perception of team need. The wild swings come from draft gurus on the outside looking in, not the teams themselves...
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