st pete gogolak Posted April 20, 2012 Posted April 20, 2012 OK. Time to splash a little cold water on draft expectations. Here's a list of #10 picks since 2000: 2011 - Gabbert 2010 - Alualu 2009 - Crabtree 2008 - Mayo 2007 - Okoye 2006 - Leinhart 2005 - M. Williams (DET) 2004 - D. Robinson 2003 - Suggs 2002 - L. Jones 2001 - Reynolds 2000 - T. Taylor It's a pretty grim picture as the #10 spot is littered with total busts (Travis Taylor, Jamal Reynolds, Leinhart), busts in the making (Gabbert), some ok players and two All-Pro/Pro Bowl types (Mayo and Suggs). Maybe it is not a coincidence that the two best players were picked by franchises with strong track records in the draft (NE and BALT). By the ten hole, all the truly elite players are gone and you have to pick one player from a group of 10-15 very comparable players. Not that easy to do. Here's a reason for optimism however. The #11 pick over the last tweleve years has been treasure trove of great, great players (JJ Watt, Willis, Cutler, Ware, Roethlisberger, Freeney). (Biggest exceptions were two guys named Maybin and McKelvin.) Moral of the story. Forget about need and draft BPA.
Punch Posted April 20, 2012 Posted April 20, 2012 Would this not likely be the success/fail rate for almost any pick in the 1st round? Not to mention, just because Jerrod Mayo was taken by New England at 10 in 2008 doesn't mean a different team with a different need and a different draft board would have picked that same player or that the talent level is the same in each individual year. But thanks for the cold water, now we all know how we should feel and why we should expect certain defeat.
K-9 Posted April 20, 2012 Posted April 20, 2012 Thank goodness none of that has ANY BEARING WHATSOEVER on anything related to this draft. Or future drafts. GO BILLS!!!
tennesseeboy Posted April 20, 2012 Posted April 20, 2012 look...bust of no bust we have our choice of one (Reiff) top 10 player in a position of need, or to take a chance or reach on two others (Martin and Glenn), arguably the best or close to the best wr (Floyd) a sure thing LB (Keuchly). I don't see it very likely we are going to get a bust. If there has to be a bust option I'd go with Glenn.
deep2evans Posted April 20, 2012 Posted April 20, 2012 can't think of a single reason why that's relevant.
JohnC Posted April 20, 2012 Posted April 20, 2012 look...bust of no bust we have our choice of one (Reiff) top 10 player in a position of need, or to take a chance or reach on two others (Martin and Glenn), arguably the best or close to the best wr (Floyd) a sure thing LB (Keuchly). I don't see it very likely we are going to get a bust. If there has to be a bust option I'd go with Glenn. Just to add some spice to the mixture the Bills might take the CB from S. Carolina, Gilmore, or if he is taken ahead of our pick we might then take the CB from Alabama, DreKirpartick. You are absolutely on target when you state that the Bills have a critcal need at OT. But I don't think Buddy is going to reach with his first selection. The bottom line is that especially with his first three picks he needs to take the best players available. Although many people are calling for the Bills to select Floyd with their first pick I don't see it happening. In other words your guess is as legitimate as my guess.
rocwocka Posted April 20, 2012 Posted April 20, 2012 I think if Kuelchy is still there at 10, we have to take him. Since the LBs in this D are mostly asked to be in zone coverage and react to plays, we all have to understand that he isn't going to rack up sacks. Kuelchy is more of a LB that will probably often lead the team in tackles and grab a couple interceptions a year... AKA boring, but necessary.
DanInUticaTampa Posted April 20, 2012 Posted April 20, 2012 I agree. I just hope they don't pick someone we don't see coming and he turns out to suck.
tennesseeboy Posted April 20, 2012 Posted April 20, 2012 Just to add some spice to the mixture the Bills might take the CB from S. Carolina, Gilmore, or if he is taken ahead of our pick we might then take the CB from Alabama, DreKirpartick. You are absolutely on target when you state that the Bills have a critcal need at OT. But I don't think Buddy is going to reach with his first selection. The bottom line is that especially with his first three picks he needs to take the best players available. Although many people are calling for the Bills to select Floyd with their first pick I don't see it happening. In other words your guess is as legitimate as my guess. I don't see how Reiff is a reach by any means. Most boards and lists rank him as one of the top 10 players see e.g., http://www.drafttek.com/ and some mocks have him picked as early as round 7. Based on the various mocks, analyses and all I can't see him as a reach by any means.
DanInUticaTampa Posted April 20, 2012 Posted April 20, 2012 I don't think Reif is a reach, but I think people here are hard on him because he isn't that exciting. I think that would be a good pick for us, but I also think there is a chance he gets picked before we pick. If reiff is the pick, I'd be happy. I think he is starter material at the very least
K-9 Posted April 20, 2012 Posted April 20, 2012 (edited) I don't see how Reiff is a reach by any means. Most boards and lists rank him as one of the top 10 players see e.g., http://www.drafttek.com/ and some mocks have him picked as early as round 7. Based on the various mocks, analyses and all I can't see him as a reach by any means. Well, that's better than being a free agent I suppose. At least he won't fall out of the draft entirely. GO BILLS!!! Edited April 20, 2012 by K-9
jimmy10 Posted April 20, 2012 Posted April 20, 2012 Great thread. I think it's now clear what we need to do. Why bother drafting anyone at all? Boycott the draft, then Buddy can take the money the franchise saves on airfare and hotel and upgrade the urinal troughs.
DefenseWinzChampionshipz Posted April 20, 2012 Posted April 20, 2012 look...bust of no bust we have our choice of one (Reiff) top 10 player in a position of need, or to take a chance or reach on two others (Martin and Glenn), arguably the best or close to the best wr (Floyd) a sure thing LB (Keuchly). I don't see it very likely we are going to get a bust. If there has to be a bust option I'd go with Glenn. Martin is the only bust option of the players you mentioned IMO... The guy is like 7 feet tall n tips over 300 and can bench press 19 Times in the combine? Come on. I understand there's much more to being a Tackle in the NFL and LT in fact, but I'd rather have a guy that can push off defenders thanks... His footwork also isn't that great... As far as the post, the post has no sense. Every year is a new year with more than likely a different team picking in that slot every year. If the same team picked at #10 for the past 10 years and drafted 10 busts, that would be a post to put in statistics...
Glory Bound Posted April 20, 2012 Posted April 20, 2012 Great thread. I think it's now clear what we need to do. Why bother drafting anyone at all? Boycott the draft, then Buddy can take the money the franchise saves on airfare and hotel and upgrade the urinal troughs. Why start a fuss? Let's just pass our turn.
Bill from NYC Posted April 20, 2012 Posted April 20, 2012 Just to add some spice to the mixture the Bills might take the CB from S. Carolina, Gilmore, or if he is taken ahead of our pick we might then take the CB from Alabama, DreKirpartick. That would be great. And fwiw, Barron is a better DB than Kirkpatrick, in my very strong opinion, this from having seen them both play for years. Jmo, but a strong one.
K-9 Posted April 20, 2012 Posted April 20, 2012 That would be great. And fwiw, Barron is a better DB than Kirkpatrick, in my very strong opinion, this from having seen them both play for years. Jmo, but a strong one. On the off chance you really are Bill from NYC, are you feeling ok today? GO BILLS!!!
todzilla Posted April 20, 2012 Posted April 20, 2012 I hadn't given any thought to Barron, but keep seeing his name pop up lately. This is a bit of a hijack, but where would he fit in with Byrd and Wilson? I'm all for talented Alabama defensive players though.
Bill from NYC Posted April 20, 2012 Posted April 20, 2012 I hadn't given any thought to Barron, but keep seeing his name pop up lately. This is a bit of a hijack, but where would he fit in with Byrd and Wilson? I'm all for talented Alabama defensive players though. He is better than either one of them. On the off chance you really are Bill from NYC, are you feeling ok today? GO BILLS!!! LOL!!! I suppose that I used the wrong icon!
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