Tom Donahoe as draft guru

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Cliff notes begin: Overall, I don't think you can call any of TD 4 drafts he has led a bust and actually the last two look extremely strong, his first pretty good and the jury remains out on the second though we had hoped for more from it by now. Cliff notes end.

 

 

Of course it is too early to assess the quality of Bills drafts in 2004, 2003 and actually even 2002 somewhat as there are certainly cases of players like Moulds who produced like busts early in their careers and became legit Pro Bowl talents as well as players like Josh Reed who seemed clearly destined for stardom based on his 1st year numbers only to have his next two years disappoint in a bug way.

 

However, the funny thing is how the declaration of TD as a bust as a drafter early this season now clearly need to be reconsidered and actually his four year record may end up being one of the best ever not simply for the Bills but in a comparison across the league. Its still too early to make firm conclusions but these are the findings and trends to date whcich I see as TDs 4th campaign as GM draws to a finish.

 

Overall- Drafting is but a part of a GMs job and judgments about him will probably be made based on business issues such as negotiation of contracts, building deals with partners like St. John's Fisher and other elements which at most impact on the field performance and are not direct issues in this regard. The draft is fast diminishing in importance in the increasingly worst to first NFL where teams are built according to the opportunities and constraints of the cap rather than longer term development through the draft.

 

The draft will always be important, it just is of lesser importance to the modern NFL team. Like most leaders it is a team effort and TD gets to much credit when it works and too much blame when it fails. However, the primary benefit which TF probably brings to the Bills is his recognition that the draft is just another tool rather than a driver for his work. The hallmark of his work has been that he turned a 2003 1st rounder into a 2002 benefit by replacing RJ with a Bledsoe who made the Pro Bowl in 2002. He recovered that lost 1st round pick by reading the market and using the transition tag, but again made a pick for a different year in using it to get McGahee. Once again in 2004 he traded the pick away to get Losman when it turns out the 2005 QB pool is weak and he got a year of training into the raw Losman.

 

If TD's draft work goes into history books for being notable it will be because unlike all his peers he had shown a propensity (and i say a good ability based on Bledsoe's 2002 performance, WM's 2004 performance, and the potential of Losman) for out the box manipulation of the draft to get benefits both before and after the year of a particular pick.

 

Specifics-

 

2001 Draft- TD's first as GM. The priorities were: 1. Get talent as is the case with any draft, 2. Get depth as the cap purge the Bills had to do meant players who would play was a prime need. 3. Get numbers of picks as the Bills needed to fill roster spots.

 

This draft is long enough ago it can be assessed with more validity. Overall it was a success in my judgment. The Bills actually had 12 picks from the 7 rounds. Of these seven 5 are still on the team. However, 7 of these players played a significant starter role for the Bills at some point in their career. If you figure that a 50% batting average is fairly good for finding players who contribute to the team (I'm willing to accept a smaller or larger number is anyone can find or wants to do a numeric proof of players sticking with team that drafted them). The Bills draft squad did pretty well here with over 50% of drafted players contributing as starters at some point and being just below 50% at this point 4 seasons down the line from a draft which emphasized quantity over quality by necessity.

 

As far as star power, this draft did not provide it, but given that they had a relatively late first round pick and traded it down to get more picks this is not surprising. Of note actually should be that even with the trade down the Bills read the market correctly as Clements was still the first CB taken. In addition, he clearly is developing into a budding star as he has achieved Pro Bowl alternate status and is a playmaker on this team with his punt returns. Second pick Schobel produced well enough to command a big contract, is not all we want as a rusher but has put up double digit sack numbers and leads the team with 8 going into the last game. Third choice Henry is in disfavor but played in a Pro Bowl. Edwards is a reasonable reserve who once started due to our weakness at DT. Jennings has played well enough as a starter he will probably command a big contract.

 

Overall, I think this was a good draft with several stalwarts on today's Bills and even reasonable Pro Bowl accolades and semi-accolades given this was a draft more about our broad needs rather than star opportunities. Even the picks of released players like Spoon and Sullivan were what we needed at the time due to unexpected injury to Cowart and our weakness at OL.

 

2002 Draft- We saw a diminished but still crucial need for depth as we finished 3-13. Our strong draft position caused by our weak 2001 season position made picking stars a greater possibility and thus priority. As this was the third season for these players judgments can more reasonably be made, but as we will see in the specifics next season is likely to actually be the make or break years for our top picks. Another big factor to begin considering regarding the draft was how TD and the Bills used this resource that year.

 

Overall, I would say this year was disappointing and the worst of the 4 TD led efforts. The team did have 10 picks in the 7th round which represented a good piece of preparatory work because of our depth needs. Also on the plus side seven of these 10 picks remain with the team today which is a pretty good batting average. They are the first 7 picks which at least seems logical in terms of confirming the selections.

 

However, a look at the performance of the individual players undercuts the good numbers.

MW- disappointing results for a player picked 4th in the draft. However, the big deal is that he seems to have turned his performance around on a squad which is now suddenly productive in that they led the charge for a 1000 yard rusher and have produced low sack numbers in pass protection. Next year will probably be judgment year for MW who finally has an adult as coach and doesn't have to carry a less experienced player next to him. Most players would write their futures by now, but MW is still an open book but the trends are good right now.

Reed- He really impressed his first year, but has flat out disappointed the last two years. His opportunity may well have passed him by because Evans has left him in the dust and he will even get pushed for the #3 job by Aiken, He has also been surpassed as a return guy by McGee so his RB skills do not appear likely to save him. He looks more like the sure-handed receiver he was his first year than showing the droppsies he had last year. Though the jury is still out because of his first year production, his time may be passed as even if he is improved he will not see a lot of balls thrown his way with Evans and Moulds collecting the tries.

Denney- This is probably a better pick-up than folks give TD credit for. The pick for MW was a clear need pick of a player judged by all to be talented. The pick of Reed was an unexpected opportunity which made it possible to let PP go which led to us getting WM. Moving up to get Denney represented a bid for the best DE on the board in a clear area of Bills need made necessary by our ill-fated move to a 4-3 from a 3-4 while we were losing all three DL players, Denney disappointed his first year as leverage problems made him impossible to even activate. However, fans were loss by this first disappoinment and tend to ignore the fact he was a starter the next year. Folks judge him based on the fact that we still drafted DE's both before and after him, but the case is we need at least three DEs for our rotation and Denney is a credible member of this threesome. He ain't Bruce Smith, but after 3 years I am not terribly disappointed with him as our third choice in a draft.

Wire- Another disappointment, but I attribute this more to poor development and use of him as a player than a bad decision to draft a player who has shown a willingness to hit, some speed and a Stanford mind. As I have said virtually all along, this is a player who should have been trained to be an ST leader from the start and instead he was thrown into the safety position he had not played at any level of organized ball because GW/Gray screwed up completely in assigning this spot to Jenkins who was done. This is another player I think judgments are more reasonably made on in his fourth year.

Bannan and Thomas are both contributors to this team and Pacillo is a former starter who is around. The other 3 were cut.

 

Overall I think this was a middlin to poor year. The numbers are pretty good as 6 of the 10 contribute today. Yet, I think more should be expected of highly drafted players and though MW, Reed, and Wire all get another year in my book before a reasonable final judgment is made, we should have seen more from these players and as far as TD it testifies to how big a mistake he made in picking GW rather than faulting the specific drafting.

 

Overall, i think one should actually label this year's draft as a success for TD though as he used the 2004 draft choices to acquire Bledsoe that year. Codemn or whatever Bledsoe however much you want. The facts of 2002 were that we were coming off a season where RJ and AVP were our QBs and something needed to be done. It was looking like the available possibilities were folks like Jeff Blake and Chris Chandler. Like it or not, Bledsoe made and deserved in my opinion a 2002 Pro Bowl berth for his great production as the Bills QB that year and TD not only used the potential of draft resources to get Bledsoe but used a 2003 pick to manufacture a 2002 benefit. Bledsoe flat out sucked in 2003 and his presence at least coincided with this year's run. i say kudos to TD for his handling of the draft resource in 2002.

 

2003 draft- This one is way to early to draw final conclusions, but so far so very very good. This draft was an immediate disappointment as the team finished 6-10 and just as the 2002 class gets credit in conjunction with these players playing a role in the improvement of the team from 3-13 to 8-8, the 2003 class did nothing to stop the Bills from falling to 6-10.

 

However, all 8 players remain connected to the Bills and demonstrate why a reasonable party needs to wait before drawing conclusions on a draft class

 

McGahee- A brilliant choice since over 20 teams which picked before the Bills would not take this risk and it was loudly decried by pundits who did not have the doctors perspective and info on WM and who did not understand that TH provided a reason why you could draft WM and wait rather than a reason why this pick was unecessary. The 1000 yard mark for me is a milestone where you can put this in the book as a gutsy and great choice though who knows what the future holds in terms of assessing how well this choice works for the Bills.

Kelsay- Add to the pick of WM that TD read the market exceedingly well to see that we would be able to make this pick in the second round when people would not have found it to be an exptic choice in the 1st round. Add to that him breaking into the starting line-up of a very productive D and even though he will never be Bruce and it is still too early to declare this a good choice the trendlines are very good.

Crowell- has turned into a notable contributor on an ST unit recognized as one of the best units in the league if not in Bills history. He never has proved himself as a back-up and I hope he never has to.

McGee- We found a Pro Bolwer and starting CB in the 4th rounf nuff said.

Aiken and Haggan are solid contributors on a high performance ST, Sape and Sobieski are PS players who probably will be replaced by younger players next year.

 

Too early to tell but great so far. Kudos to TD and the crew for wonderful manipulation of the transition tag to get the 1st rounder back and then to fearlessly use it to get a #3 rated player with a pick in the 20s.

 

2004 draft-

 

Again way too early to draw reasonable coclusions but the tendlines are good and again the Bills and TD use extraordinary outside boxthinking to gain benefits this year from the illusion of the next year's draft. By the time the illusion of the 2005 draft becomes a reality, it is possible the Bills will have traded unwanted players to reload this resource. We'll see.

 

The particulars are worth noting as there were only 6 picks from the 7th round but the movement we have made from looking for depth to looking for quality is easily seen.

 

Evans- Too early to declare him a great pick, but most wish they all produced like this. His presence has revitalized Moulds production and has become a potent target for flea flickers.

Losman- Despite the whines of those who want him to play now, this rugged unfinished talent clearly needed off field work to learn the NFL game and practice to work on mechanics. The trading of a 2005 pick to get this QB who has the talent to be a franchise guy but needed a least a years worth of work anyway looks particularly brilliant given the weakness of the senior QB class the likelihood that underclassmen will be the first QBs taken (if they come out) and thus will go to high draft pick teams. This bet would be paying off differently if our QB play ended up being so bad that we had a losing record and gave up a high pick. However, we will have a winning record and might even make the playoffs with some help and the facts are this move was a great one to make,

Anderson- An obvious need given some FA uncertainty and he has not played to answer these questions.

Euhus- Good production til his injury.

McFarland- Has proved good enough to be activated.

Smith- scored a TD on punt returns and used as a position player to run reverses or pose that threat and thus has contributed.

 

Again too early to tell but the tea leaves look extremely good as 2 of the 6 have given outstanding contributions, 2 of he 6 have merited activation and participation and 2 of the six are spending their time learning like they should.

 

Overall, I don't think you can call any of TD 4 drafts he has led a bust and actually the last two look extremely strong, his first pretty good and the jury remains out on the second though we had hoped for more from it by now.

[SouthTownBills51]

Replying or writing a novel??

 

nonetheless good insight

[Grant]

Your posts would be much better, FFS, if instead of simply writing stream-of-consciousness you thought about your post before hand and then also looked it over at least once before posting.

[clumping platelets]

Solid

[flomoe]

As always FFS, another great and insightful post. Thanks

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Your posts would be much better, FFS, if instead of simply writing stream-of-consciousness you thought about your post before hand and then also looked it over at least once before posting.

183358[/snapback]

 

 

My apologies, but as I have noted before i use these posts to think outloud and do the first draft of thinking these issues through so that i clarify them in my mond and can actually give a semi-coherent and shorter pitch come gametime on Sunday when i get to together with friends or talk with the family about football.

 

I do not require folks to reply or even to read my posts as it serves the benefit for me of clarifying my thinking. However, I really do appreciate some of the replies I get even though they are not required to make this a useful process for me because there are some great football thinkers on TSW.

 

This particular post was a bit longer than most as consideration of TD;s draft management prowess is really a central issue to assessing his work and many on this board have labeled him a draft failure over the past year with no rational argument to back this up.

 

Thanks to the lull between Xmas and New Years (and the prescence of mind-altering substances which allowed me to stay up until near 3am) I was able to produce this screed and think through while writing some of these issues in more depth than usual.

 

Per the request of some I have added some cliff notes to provide a short summary of the too long posts if anyone cares to plow into them. My apologies if they are too long for reading and my suggestion to folks who find them such is don't read them.

[Crows57]

Evans- Too early to declare him a great pick, but most wish they all produced like this.  His presence has revitalized Moulds production

183347[/snapback]

 

Moulds had the groin problem that limited him last year. I don't think that Moulds is revitalized because of Evans, he's just healthy this year.

[boomerjamhead]

Your posts would be much better, FFS, if instead of simply writing stream-of-consciousness you thought about your post before hand and then also looked it over at least once before posting.

183358[/snapback]

 

How about you don't read his posts next time. Last I looked this message board wasn't scheduled to go to print.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

How about you don't read his posts next time.  Last I looked this message board wasn't scheduled to go to print.

183757[/snapback]

 

Agreed!

[Yoho]

The only thing that the post missed is that sometimes you need to put a draft in context of the larger overall draft. What was the overall talent level that was available? I have heard it suggested, but I have not independently verified that it is turning out that the 2002 draft (the Mike Williams, Josh Reed draft) was relativley weak overall.

 

There are always glaring exceptions in any draft (diamonds in the rough that some team uncovered in a later round) but some years the talent is just not there.

 

I also find it interesting that people are calling Coy Wire a bust. He is a real leader on the special teams that have made this Bills team so successful lately. I think you have to be happy to find such a contributor in the 3rd round.