Kiper's Draft Report and my conclusion

[NewEra]

1334526746[/url]' post='2437501']

PLEASE tell me what major hole is in mcnutts game?? IS IT ABILITY TO SEPARATE? NO..... IS IT HIS BUTTERFINGERS HELL NO. OR IS IT BECAUSE EVRY YEAR HE GOT BETTER AND BETTER SWITCHING FROM THE QB POSITION to eventually breaking the schools records and being 1st team all big ten. McNUTT is better suited for the pro type offence than blackmon whio played in a pass happy 5 Wr set. Look at both stats from last year and you tell me the MAJOR DIFFERENCE

 

 

youtube.com/watch?v=kzFm2FweXHE

 

Geez, Iowa fan getting all fired up for his boy. Blackmon is much better IMO. I like Mcnutt and would be happy with him in rd 3, but he's no blackmon. I could care less about stats.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

Hahahahaah...

 

Its so funny how suggestive people opions are how many sacks did hairtston give up as a starter? Where did the Bills OL suffer when hairston started?

 

To be fair, Hairston got pwned at times. The quick release game meant there wasn't a sack, but Fitz took some hard hits and was hurried.

 

Equally to be fair, Hairston was a rookie with no OTAs and minimal training camp. He did good for the amount of prep he had, and he picked up valuable experience.

 

I think there's no question we need to draft an LT, but not 'cuz the book's been written on Hairston and he's def. a career backup - 'cuz we got no one else. Levitre is not a left tackle!

 

I don't understand the "washing" some people give these so-called draft expert prognosticators. If they were actually charged with building an NFL team, they'd be getting their butts handed to them.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

Love how every one thinks Reiff is a RT when he played LT and most annalists think he can play LT.

Edited April 16, 2012 by Buffalo Barbarian

[CSBill]

Order Matters! Look who's available in each round. Which is the best draft of the 6 combinations???

 

LT,WR,OLB (RD1: Reiff-Adams-Glenn) (RD2: Alshon Jeffery-Sanu) (RD3: Sean Spence-Audie Cole)

 

LT,OLB,WR (RD1: Reiff-Adams-Glenn) (RD2: Lavonte David, Wagner) (RD3: Givens, Toon, Rainey, Jenkins)

 

OLB,LT,WR: (RD1: Kuechly-Ingram,Zach Brown) (RD2:Kelechi Osemele) (RD3: Givens, Toon, Rainey, Jenkins)

 

OLB,WR,LT: (RD1: Kuechly-Ingram,Zach Brown) (RD2: Alshon Jeffery-Sanu) (RD3: Sanders*, Bergstrom, Mosley)

 

WR,LT,OLB: (RD1:Floyd, Stephen Hill) (RD2:Kelechi Osemele) (RD3: Sean Spence-Audie Cole)

 

WR,OLB,LT: (RD1:Floyd, Stephen Hill) (RD2: Lavonte David, Wagner) (RD3: Sanders*, Bergstrom, Mosley)

 

*Likely drafted earlier than our RD3 pick

 

 

I conclude from this that the Bills need to get their LT first, OLB second, WR or TE third.

 

I really like this idea: WR,LT,OLB: (RD1:Floyd) (RD2:Kelechi Osemele) .... I think Osemele is the real deal--based on what I've read. Admittedly, I have not seen him play--not that that ever matters for us when making our opinions/choices known here.

[roccitybillsfan]

Order Matters! Look who's available in each round. Which is the best draft of the 6 combinations???

 

LT,WR,OLB (RD1: Reiff-Adams-Glenn) (RD2: Alshon Jeffery-Sanu) (RD3: Sean Spence-Audie Cole)

 

LT,OLB,WR (RD1: Reiff-Adams-Glenn) (RD2: Lavonte David, Wagner) (RD3: Givens, Toon, Rainey, Jenkins)

 

OLB,LT,WR: (RD1: Kuechly-Ingram,Zach Brown) (RD2:Kelechi Osemele) (RD3: Givens, Toon, Rainey, Jenkins)

 

OLB,WR,LT: (RD1: Kuechly-Ingram,Zach Brown) (RD2: Alshon Jeffery-Sanu) (RD3: Sanders*, Bergstrom, Mosley)

 

WR,LT,OLB: (RD1:Floyd, Stephen Hill) (RD2:Kelechi Osemele) (RD3: Sean Spence-Audie Cole)

 

WR,OLB,LT: (RD1:Floyd, Stephen Hill) (RD2: Lavonte David, Wagner) (RD3: Sanders*, Bergstrom, Mosley)

 

*Likely drafted earlier than our RD3 pick

 

 

I conclude from this that the Bills need to get their LT first, OLB second, WR or TE third.

 

Options #6, 4, then 1 would be my preference. I do think it would be a mistake to go into the draft with this positional philosophy though. That leads to you reaching. I still think you go best player available. Which means their big board would determine from all of those RD 1 options at all positions who gets drafted round 1. Same for Rds 2, 3. That seems to be how they have run their draft in years past. The picks of Spiller and Williams kind of speak to that in my opinion.

 

PLEASE tell me what major hole is in mcnutts game?? IS IT ABILITY TO SEPARATE? NO..... IS IT HIS BUTTERFINGERS HELL NO. OR IS IT BECAUSE EVRY YEAR HE GOT BETTER AND BETTER SWITCHING FROM THE QB POSITION to eventually breaking the schools records and being 1st team all big ten. McNUTT is better suited for the pro type offence than blackmon whio played in a pass happy 5 Wr set. Look at both stats from last year and you tell me the MAJOR DIFFERENCE

 

 

youtube.com/watch?v=kzFm2FweXHE

 

 

McNutt doesn't look bad. But there is probably a reason he is listed as a 3-4th Rd projection. One thing that stood out to me that I did not see in his highlight reel is that I did not see much of him fighting for the ball in traffic or jump balls. Maybe he did, but I didn't see much of it, so I'm throwing it out there. Correct me if I'm wrong. IIRC, that is something Buddy is looking for in a WR. "Open even when he is covered." I think Floyd is the pick at 10 if he's there. If they wait until Round 3-4 for a WR, I would love to get McNutt though.

[Bflojohn]

I, on the other hand, subscribe to Ourlads Guide and they also love Riley Reiff and Luke Kuechly!! I read the scouting report to my wife and she chimed in on Kuechly, "So, does his breathe smell?" that is how much they raved about him!! According to the guide, Reiff is off the board at 10 and Kuechly goes 11 to Kansas City. I'd be happy with either one after the write-ups provided.

Note: Ourlads is produced by Dan Shonka, and staff, and he (Shonka) is a former scout for the Philadelphia Eagles. Incidently they mocked Jonathan Martin to the Bills.

[BrooklynBills]

Order Matters! Look who's available in each round. Which is the best draft of the 6 combinations???

 

LT,WR,OLB (RD1: Reiff-Adams-Glenn) (RD2: Alshon Jeffery-Sanu) (RD3: Sean Spence-Audie Cole)

 

LT,OLB,WR (RD1: Reiff-Adams-Glenn) (RD2: Lavonte David, Wagner) (RD3: Givens, Toon, Rainey, Jenkins)

 

OLB,LT,WR: (RD1: Kuechly-Ingram,Zach Brown) (RD2:Kelechi Osemele) (RD3: Givens, Toon, Rainey, Jenkins)

 

OLB,WR,LT: (RD1: Kuechly-Ingram,Zach Brown) (RD2: Alshon Jeffery-Sanu) (RD3: Sanders*, Bergstrom, Mosley)

 

WR,LT,OLB: (RD1:Floyd, Stephen Hill) (RD2:Kelechi Osemele) (RD3: Sean Spence-Audie Cole)

 

WR,OLB,LT: (RD1:Floyd, Stephen Hill) (RD2: Lavonte David, Wagner) (RD3: Sanders*, Bergstrom, Mosley)

 

*Likely drafted earlier than our RD3 pick

 

 

I conclude from this that the Bills need to get their LT first, OLB second, WR or TE third.

 

Draft the player, not the position.

[Lurker]

Not to piss in the punch bowl, but do people realize these draft guides are put together a month or more ago due to publishing/distribution constraints? Usually before pro days and sometimes even the combine.

 

They're fun to read, but they're only starting points for getting a "read" on players. The smoke blown (by scouts, GM's, agents, hangers on, etc.) about some of these guys gets pretty dense until the final week or so. So everybody's "next all pro" (outside the top 5-6 guys) is often a MacGuffin, while a "Reach! Reach!" on draft day is a [potential] solid pick.

 

I used to subscribe to all the guides until I realized what Mel, Dan, etc. were saying in February/March didn't have a lot of relevance to what happened in late April.

 

(That said, I still buy the PFW guide as Nawrocki continues to use the Joel Buchsbaum model, which was the best outside the NFL)

[iLikeChix]

Mel Kiper knows as much about football as John Clayton, not very much. He doesn't think Nick Barnett can play weak-side? Wow

[brianhawkeye2012]

Options #6, 4, then 1 would be my preference. I do think it would be a mistake to go into the draft with this positional philosophy though. That leads to you reaching. I still think you go best player available. Which means their big board would determine from all of those RD 1 options at all positions who gets drafted round 1. Same for Rds 2, 3. That seems to be how they have run their draft in years past. The picks of Spiller and Williams kind of speak to that in my opinion.

 

 

 

 

McNutt doesn't look bad. But there is probably a reason he is listed as a 3-4th Rd projection. One thing that stood out to me that I did not see in his highlight reel is that I did not see much of him fighting for the ball in traffic or jump balls. Maybe he did, but I didn't see much of it, so I'm throwing it out there. Correct me if I'm wrong. IIRC, that is something Buddy is looking for in a WR. "Open even when he is covered." I think Floyd is the pick at 10 if he's there. If they wait until Round 3-4 for a WR, I would love to get McNutt though.

 

 

Im with you in the 3-4th im saying we could get REIFF (another hawkeye HAHA) at ten and other needs in 2nd and 3rd and still get a great receiver. Remember this IOWA afew years ago started 8-0 and was playing a good MICHIGAN ST on the road For a WR who was in his first year at WR as a sophmore was clutch and he made shure this ball was his on the last play of the game.......also notice RIEFF is #77 he was a starter then if shonn green would have came back for his senior season after winning the doak awad we might have won a championship we played this season im showing with 3 freshmen running backs

 

Edited April 16, 2012 by brianhawkeye2012

[Santana]

This draft is going to be a weird one for sure. The more and more I think about it, I see this draft being totally unpredictable past the first two picks. I just hope we don't reach for Reiff, I just don't think it's a smart choice that high. Like I said before I'd rather draft DeCastro if we are going the lineman route. I know I know, he's a guard but I think he's a better prospect than Reiff IMO.

[brianhawkeye2012]

Geez, Iowa fan getting all fired up for his boy. Blackmon is much better IMO. I like Mcnutt and would be happy with him in rd 3, but he's no blackmon. I could care less about stats.

 

 

 

Ididnt say Mcnutt was a better reciever overall but for the position they'd both be picked at theres not alot of difference. I would take other positions first and mcnutt in the 3rd or 4th. My point IOWA STATE held blackmon (in oklahoma st's only) loss like 3 catches 35 yards thats not good. Mcnutt is used to a two WR set full back and TE (PRO TYPE OFFENSE) and still did very similiar numbers to blackmon. Now for a receiever who is used to hiding and scheming around 4 other receivers criss crossing if a team like IOWA STATE can hold him down. What is blackmon gonna do when revis is one on one. NOT WHAT STEVEY DOES haha go BILLS

[loserlovers]

I don't think the LT they pick will be Reiff. Don't worry.

 

A true No.2 can be found by the Bills in the 4th-7th. Ask Stevie Johnson (7th), Marcus Easley (4th), and Donald Jones (UDFA).

thats why stevies a true #2, donald is a true #4, and easley is just plain MIA. if we dont get floyd we will have a team of second rate receivers.

[Kiwi Bills fan]

Love how every one thinks Reiff is a RT when he played LT and most annalists think he can play LT.

 

+1

[Cheddar's Dad]

Love how every one thinks Reiff is a RT when he played LT and most annalists think he can play LT.

 

Reiff has short arms; 32.25 inches which has caused some to think he can't be a LT. Charlie Casserly likes his LTs to have at least 32.5. So, Reiff is short by 1/4 inch. Well; excuuuuuse me. But Reiff became a starting LT as a sophomore and played in all 13 games at that position. In nine of those starts, Reiff played in all offensive downs. As a Junior, he again started all thirteen games extending his consecutive starts streak to 34 games. Again, nine times he was on the field for every offensive down and Iowa's offense cranked out 475 yards of offensive against Pittsburgh and 456 in the win over Indiana. If you're a Bills fan and have experienced the revolving door at LT the past several years due to injuries, you have to appreciate Reiff's durability.

 

The thing that stands out to me is that he has very fast feet and very good balance. If you watch him handle speed rushers you come away with the feeling he can play LT very well. But the thing that caught my attention in Kiper's write-up is what he said about Reiff's demeanor. Kiper writes - "Reiff has the mentality for the pro game; he's smart, with a great desire to dominate and take the defensive end to the ground. He plays the game with a rugged, defensive end mentality, with a no-nonsense approach to the task at end. Reiff has excellent size and is vary strong. He has that wrestling background and he loves to play, practice, and work on his game. There's not much not to like with him. Reiff is an outstanding football player and I like that he comes out of Iowa having worked under Kirk Ferentz. With his tutelage, you know that he'll be solid and reliable from a fundamentals standpoint and when you combine that with his superior athletic and physical tools, Reiff is one of the elite players in this draft".

 

I've read other evaluations about Reiff and no one writing about him has questioned his toughness. This, to me, is important because when you get to the playoffs where everyone ups his game to the max, the toughest players usually win the contest. I see Reiff paying immediate dividends in the run game and that would be very good for C.J. and Jackson.

 

Kiper gave Kalil a grade of 9.4. He grades Reiff a 9.3 and Martin an 8.8.

 

I think I like this player a lot.

[voodoo poonani]

I've been engaged with others at this site regarding Buffalo's first draft pick and have enjoyed the debate. I've just received Mel Kiper Jr's 2012 Draft Report and thought some of you might be interested in what Kiper writes about Buffalo and some draft prospects.

 

Regarding draft priorities, Kiper lists Left tackle, Wide Receiver, and Outside Linebacker as Buffalo's top priorities in that order.

 

Left Tackle - Kiper references Hairston saying he viewed him as more of an option on the right side coming out of college. He now views him as a career backup.

 

Wide receiver - Kiper sees David Nelson as the second receiver on Buffalo's roster but says he deserves to be on the roster just not in a starting capacity.

 

Outside Linebacker - Kiper, regarding Morrison and Barnett, says he is not sold on either being a good fit in the new scheme since both have enjoyed the majority of their success in the middle but are now slated to man the strong and weak OLB positions.

 

Looking at the players that are most likely to be available at the 10th pick, I have focused on Riley Reiff, Michael Floyd, and Luke Kuechly as possible Buffalo selections for this posting.

 

Kiper says this about Reiff; a top ten guy in this draft. You can make the argument that he could be the top offensive tackle in the draft, ahead of Kalil, because he has the ability to project to right tackle (suggesting, though not saying) that Kalil does not have that ability. Reiff has the mentality for the pro game; he's smart, with a great desire to dominate and take the defensive end to the ground on every play. He has that wrestling background and he loves to play, practice, and work on his game. Reiff is an outstanding football player and (Kiper) likes that he comes out of Iowa having worked with Kirk Ferentz. He is one of the elite players in this draft.

 

About Floyd; Notre Dame didn't have consistent QB play in 2011 yet Floyd still put up outstanding numbers. Kiper's one concern is that he didn't always come up big in key points of games, despite his impressive statistical totals. He'd like to see more assertiveness out of Floyd because he has a ton of ability but he hasn't yet maximized it. "There is something missing with Floyd. Yet, had he operated with the right QB, you might have been looking at a top 5-7 pick overall".

 

Regarding Kuechly; When you talk about a tackling machine, Kuechly is the definition. His read/react ability is second to none and he is an excellent tackler. He is a complete player, recording tackles for loss, interceptions, anything you can ask for. He has gotten bigger during his career at BC and is now built like an NFL middle linebacker. He is a student of the game and acts like a coach on the field. He is certainly one of the top ten players in this draft at any position.

 

So; who does Buddy select? Reading Kiper, I'm leaning toward taking Reiff first since Buffalo may not have a legit LT on it's roster. If he's not there, then Kuechly, and if he's not there, then Floyd thinking that Kuechly is in a class by himself, and this draft has good receivers that should be available in the second. Kiper's mock, in fact, has Buffalo selecting Brian Quick, WR, Appalachian St. in the second.

 

I'm sure Chix cares as much about Kiper's opinion as they do about mine. Kiper's 99% miss rate past the first pick does not inspire confidence in his opinions.

[Cheddar's Dad]

I'm sure Chix cares as much about Kiper's opinion as they do about mine. Kiper's 99% miss rate past the first pick does not inspire confidence in his opinions.

 

Show me that 99% miss rate. If there's anything I can't stand, it's those who throw out crap without facts to back it up.

[Oberyn]

Show me that 99% miss rate. If there's anything I can't stand, it's those who throw out crap without facts to back it up.

 

I hate that people use a "hit rate" to determine how good pundits are at prognosticating draft order - the reality is that the draft is usually impossible to predict after the first few picks due to one "surprise" pick making every pick after that a miss (i.e., if a team trades up, they likely have a need different than the team picking, so, once they pick that "wrong" player for the spot, that pushes the good player back, which, when that good player is picked, will push another good player back, etc.). This domino effect which ensures that one wrong prediction equates to dozens of missed picks down the line basically makes "hit rate" as a determination of skill at predicting the draft completely irrelevant.

 

As surprise picks are often due to impossible to predict actions, like trades, or GMs falling in love with a player they used to coach (or something like that), and one surprise pick voids whole draft predictions, it seems to me that "hit rate" is pretty much all luck.

 

Now, of course, Mel saying that Barnett can't play weak side is a much bigger strike against his credibility...

[Kelly the Dog]

I'm sure Chix cares as much about Kiper's opinion as they do about mine. Kiper's 99% miss rate past the first pick does not inspire confidence in his opinions.

I am not a fan of Kiper's either but the thing about mock drafts and miss rates is that these guys are predicting who teams are going to draft based on need, not who are the top 32 players in any order. And one missed pick early throws your whole board off. Not to mention that the difference between 2nd and 3rd best or 3rd and 5th best cannot be determined by the absolute best in the business on a regular basis.

Edited April 16, 2012 by Kelly the Dog

[Cheddar's Dad]

In my opinion, the "hit rate" that some talk about is not relevant to any meaningful discussion regarding players. What is relevant is what is said about a player. The strengths and weaknesses of a player reflected in scouting reports, if consistent from one report to another, can help a fan determine if that player would be a good fit for Buffalo. The best example of that is the discussions that scouts have regarding outside linebackers and whether an OLB is suitable for a 43 or 34 defense. When evaluating Offensive Tackles, athletic ability, movement skills, balance and other factors need to be considered. When I started this post, I hoped to generate a discussion about Reiff, Kuechly, and Floyd. It's disappointing that some chose to, instead, mock Kiper and talk about hit rates.