Reed83HOF Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 Is there anyone that can provide a compelling reason(s) as to why we should take a project QB? I know Thigpen looked like crap last year and Brad Smith is our "3rd stringer"; I am not looking for that. I want to know why it is a good idea to bring in a project QB via the draft to work with at the expense of using that pick on BPA in a given round or a player that will actually have a chance at contributing. A couple recent examples. AJ Feeley - drafted in the 5th round in 2001; groomed by Philly and traded for Miami's second rounder in 2005. TJ Housh, Alex Bannister and Eric Johnson were notables drafted after AJ. They took Reggie Brown in 2005. Kevin Kolb - drafted 2nd round in 2007, groomed by Philly & traded for DRC and traded for Arizona's second rounder this year. Eric Weddle, Zach Miller, Sidney Rice, LaMar Woodley, Steve Smith (Giants), Ryan Kalil all came in the second round after him. Take a look at your top 10 guys in the NFL right now (individual rankings don't matter): Brady Eli Manning Peyton Manning Philip Rivers Michael Vick Matt Ryan Aaron Rodgers Ben Roethlisberger Drew Brees Cam Newton/Matt Stafford I also understand that all first rounders aren't HOFers and there are busts littered throughout NFL history. I find it to be a better investment to grab your back up and third stringer through FA. Grab a Rex Grossman, a David Carr, a Kyle Orton, a Kelly Holcumb, hell even a Fitz in FA and use the draft choice to grab a player in another position who will actually help your team. QBs are so over scouted nowadays, that your chances of finding an outside of a first round QB gem is far greater than any other position. Usually somewhere around pick 20 (not a hard 20) the chances of you finding your franchise guy go down tremendously. Players like Terrel Davis, Kyle Williams, Michale Bush, Carl Nix, Pierre Garcon, Peyton Hillis, Jamaal Charles, Kraig Urbik, Mike Wallace, and Elvis Dummervil are all mid-to-later round picks. Players at other positions have a better chance at having an impact than Kevin Kolb, Aj Feeley, RJ, Matt Cassel, Scott Mitchell, etc... I get it that Brady and Montana were hidden in later rounds, but that was like 25 years between. Romo was an UDFA and Brees was a second rounder. There are a few exceptions, but they are few and far between. teams like Philly who always get close but are a player or 2 away could actually make it if they didn't focus on developing a QB. A Kyle Williams would be a much better fit for Philly's D than AJ Feeley or Kevin Kolb carrying a clipboard....
DreamOnDan Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 Is there anyone that can provide a compelling reason(s) as to why we should take a project QB? I know Thigpen looked like crap last year and Brad Smith is our "3rd stringer"; I am not looking for that. I want to know why it is a good idea to bring in a project QB via the draft to work with at the expense of using that pick on BPA in a given round or a player that will actually have a chance at contributing. A couple recent examples. AJ Feeley - drafted in the 5th round in 2001; groomed by Philly and traded for Miami's second rounder in 2005. TJ Housh, Alex Bannister and Eric Johnson were notables drafted after AJ. They took Reggie Brown in 2005. Kevin Kolb - drafted 2nd round in 2007, groomed by Philly & traded for DRC and traded for Arizona's second rounder this year. Eric Weddle, Zach Miller, Sidney Rice, LaMar Woodley, Steve Smith (Giants), Ryan Kalil all came in the second round after him. Take a look at your top 10 guys in the NFL right now (individual rankings don't matter): Brady Eli Manning Peyton Manning Philip Rivers Michael Vick Matt Ryan Aaron Rodgers Ben Roethlisberger Drew Brees Cam Newton/Matt Stafford I also understand that all first rounders aren't HOFers and there are busts littered throughout NFL history. I find it to be a better investment to grab your back up and third stringer through FA. Grab a Rex Grossman, a David Carr, a Kyle Orton, a Kelly Holcumb, hell even a Fitz in FA and use the draft choice to grab a player in another position who will actually help your team. QBs are so over scouted nowadays, that your chances of finding an outside of a first round QB gem is far greater than any other position. Usually somewhere around pick 20 (not a hard 20) the chances of you finding your franchise guy go down tremendously. Players like Terrel Davis, Kyle Williams, Michale Bush, Carl Nix, Pierre Garcon, Peyton Hillis, Jamaal Charles, Kraig Urbik, Mike Wallace, and Elvis Dummervil are all mid-to-later round picks. Players at other positions have a better chance at having an impact than Kevin Kolb, Aj Feeley, RJ, Matt Cassel, Scott Mitchell, etc... I get it that Brady and Montana were hidden in later rounds, but that was like 25 years between. Romo was an UDFA and Brees was a second rounder. There are a few exceptions, but they are few and far between. teams like Philly who always get close but are a player or 2 away could actually make it if they didn't focus on developing a QB. A Kyle Williams would be a much better fit for Philly's D than AJ Feeley or Kevin Kolb carrying a clipboard.... While I would not like to see a reach for a qb, I will make a couple points that might make sense. maybe not. first off due to the salary restraints that the Bills now face, a project qb is more than likely the only way the team can realistically improve the overall talent of the position. I don't think that they are going to sign a free agent qb anytime soon. Anyone good enough to unseat Fitz is going to have to come through the draft. Secondly the Bills have 10 draft picks, it is conceivable that backup qb is a top 10 need on the team. SO it makes sense to draft for need to me, which is why i'm ok with a qb that is taken. Not that I like Trent Edwards, but he is a good example of a qb that seemed like he wasn't a reach when he was selected. I would be fine with something like that. I would rather have a young trent right now than thigpen. not the trent that suffered one too many hits to the head though. I don't like the idea of drafting a guy before he should be drafted though. But who really knows how all the teams felt about the player. If you really like a qb that you think is flying under the radar, you can be suckered into reaching for them cause you know that all it takes is one other team interested... Its got to be the most important position on the team. If I were GM I would have a secret philosophy to draft a qb every single season until I coulnd't fit another good one on the team. I think that Belicheck would agree, man I hate him though. One more point, if the rookie qb is better than Thigpen, he could save the team 2-3 million per year. It might be the difference between signing byrd and/or levitre back,,
uncle flap Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 By no means am I arguing that the Bills should draft one, but the easy answer is that QB is the most important position in the NFL. So, basically, if you're taking a flyer on a player anyway, you stand to gain the most if you hit on a QB than on another position. You're right in saying the odds are against that happening, but I think an apt analogy for a late round QB selection would be playing powerball vs buying a scratch off. Do you spend a dollar on a chance to win major money with terrible odds, or that same dollar on a smaller jackpot but with slightly better odds?
Kelly the Dog Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 This particular year, I am not all that enamored with using a pick on a QB until maybe round four. But that said, back-up QB is a fairly important position on a team, especially one with playoff hopes. Not all drafted QBs need to be potential stars. Charlie Batch has been an amazingly valuable player for the Steelers for the last several years. Frank Reich was an integral part of the great Bills teams. I happen to think Thigpen is fine as a back-up despite his poor showing last year, and I would be willing to bet that Chan still really likes him, which is all that matters. But he is likely a stopgap and backup kind of player for three years. We do need to develop a QB, it's just really hard to do. But so is every other position. I think we need a PS player this year, because we may need the roster spot for other positions.
Bill from NYC Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 If you take a chance on a qb, he is worth his weight in gold (in trade value alone) should he happen to pan out. Players like Hasselback and Schuab come to mind.
Dragonborn10 Posted April 14, 2012 Posted April 14, 2012 Last year they took Johnny White and Michael Jasper. They contributed zero to the team and will likely never be contributors. The whole draft is a crap shoot and the odds get only worse later in the draft. The only arguement not to take a QB is that they can't contribute on special teams. Well if they are on the PS they can't play special teams either. I would have no issue with them taking a QB on day 3, especially if it is Cousins(though he may be gone in round 2) or Kellen Moore. Could those two be any worse than Levi Brown???
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