Recent articles from C. Brown, Buff News & Nolan Nawrocki regardin

[Reed83HOF]

Lots of information here, but while looking back at last years draft, Nix told us exactaly what he was looking for in his post season wrap-up. He basically said exactly what positions he wanted in the draft and where he planned on finding them.

 

I read this article from Chris Brown on BB.com today, it has Casserly's insight on what GMs might be thinking this year regarding trading and the draft class after the first 6 elite prospects. I won't put the whole article in here, but only post a few snippets. Prospect Value Link

 

"...From pick seven to pick 20 there's a widely held view that the difference between the seventh best prospect and 20th best prospect is negligible.

 

"I agree with the premise that there might not be a lot of difference," said Casserly.

 

Buffalo at 10 is near the top of that range of second tier of prospects. Knowing the caliber of player the Bills can get at 10 is seen by many in the know as marginally better than what can be had at 20 leads some draft analysts to make the blanket conclusion that whomever GM Buddy Nix and his personnel staff target at 10 is seen as a reach. Casserly says that thinking is misguided, and that NFL clubs in a position like that of the Bills take a different approach to such scenarios.

 

“I think what you have to do is get into a mindset of this, first of all you want to take the best player on the board, however it is set up," he said. "You can’t get into a mindset where if you’re picking at 10 that there are six elite players and you’ll be disappointed if you don’t get one of those six. If you’re picking 10 think about if you’re picking 20 or 25 and you’re going to get a good player there. The point is take a step back and don’t be too critical of the players that are sitting there and say they’re not worth the 10th pick."

 

In addition to outlining the Bills' 'best player on the board' approach to the draft Nix has expressed the willingness before to sit just where they are and make the pick rather than try to slide up or down the board in an effort to land the best overall value.

 

The best example of this was Nix's first pick as Bills GM when Buffalo took C.J. Spiller ninth overall in 2010 despite not having a pressing need at running back at the time.

 

"Personnel executives just try to keep it all in perspective, line the board up with the best player on down the line," said Casserly. "When it comes to 10 you take him or you try to trade back and get into a group.”

 

While trading back seems like a very sensible option, especially knowing the difference in player value is seen as marginal, that’s exactly why teams down at 18, 19 or 20 would be unwilling to move up. So finding a trade partner could prove difficult knowing teams at the bottom of the mid-first round range would not want to give up anything significant to get a player that isn’t seen as a whole lot better than what they can get where they currently sit.

 

With most outside observers seeing Buffalo's top two positional needs as offensive tackle and wide receiver are there any prospects fitting of the 10th pick?

 

“I think Michael Floyd to me is in that next group of players after the top six, so if you’re taking one of them in there then that’s what you have," said Casserly of the Notre Dame. "I think he can be a solid player.

 

“Riley Reiff is ideally a player you want to take in the middle of the first round, maybe a little lower than that, But if you have to take him what you have is a solid player that will play a long time. I’d start him out at left tackle and make him prove he can’t do it. He’s an excellent technician. He may have some trouble with the real top speed athletic people, but he’s an excellent technician and a good football player. And there are a lot of people that have played in this league with guys that aren’t quite as good as him that have won and gone to the playoffs.”

 

Reiff has been a popular pick for the Bills in several mock drafts, but using them as a definitive predictor for what Buffalo will do can prove foolhardy.

 

There really aren't any other receivers deemed mid-first round picks, though there are a few projected to be late first rounders. Other offensive tackles widely seen as mid-first round picks include, Georgia tackle/guard Cordy Glenn and Stanford tackle Jonathan Martin.

 

“Over time Martin can improve his strength because players should,” said Casserly. “Some players don’t have as much natural strength as other players, but I think he can improve his strength. He’s still a young guy.

 

“With Glenn I think you’ve got to know your system. If you’re going to play him at guard you can’t ask this guy to do a lot of pulling. If you’re a zone blocking team and you come off the ball and are basically are blocking an area and cutting off on the back side he can do that. He’s a massive big-bodied guy. He’s got 35-plus inch arms and he’s 345 pounds and 6’5”. So he’s not out of the question at left tackle because he’s got the long arms and the mass and the bulk that he can engulf people and the long arms can keep people off the quarterback.”"

 

I also want to add this in here from PFW's Nolan Nawrocki

 

"The following quotes are from NFL executives, coaches and front-office personnel, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

 

...

• "(Former LSU CB) Patrick Peterson had one unique quality — he could fly. That is why he went where he did. He has been more productive as a punt returner than he has been as a corner. He won games as a returner. (Morris) Claiborne is not as fast. I worry about LSU skill guys — look at the corners and safeties and receivers that have come out of the program. How many have been free of issues coming out?"

 

• "(Iowa OLT) Riley Reiff is a guard all the way. He is a tough, grinding guard — the same as (Ravens All-Pro and former Hawkeye Marshal) Yanda. That’s what I think he is."

 

• "Everyone says (South Carolina CB) Stephon Gilmore is rising after his workout. That is what I am hearing on the street. He is a big corner, and everyone is going big now. The value is in the late first. I’ve heard teams talking about him in the top 10."

 

• "(South Carolina WR) Alshon Jeffery can't run a lick. Show me the tape where he separates with speed or quickness."

 

• "I hope that big sucker (Alabama RB Trent Richardson) does not come to our division. He's a man's man. I don't want to see him twice a year.""

 

From Buddy's mouth regardingTrading up

 

"Bills GM Buddy Nix told Buffalobills.com that moving up from the 10th overall pick to the second overall selection is a trade they won’t be making.

 

“It is absolute. It’s a no,” said Nix. “You’ve got to give up the farm. We’re not in that business.”

 

Picking 10th this spring, Nix feels the Bills have an excellent opportunity to address one of their main needs.

 

“I think in my mind I can probably give you three areas that I think will be there at our pick,” he said. “I wouldn’t identify those because that would limit us against everybody else.”

 

“Maybe if we felt we were in a situation like Atlanta was last year,” said Nix in reference to their bold move up the board to secure receiver Julio Jones. “They felt with one guy they could contend for the big dance and I can see that, but numbers are too important. Draft picks are too important to us.”"

 

Buddy's end of season presser Buffalo News Recap:

 

"- He targeted pass rusher and a big wide receiver as the team's top two needs."

"I know all you guys watched the games this weekend and there's only one Calvin Johnson," Nix said, referring to Detroit's All-Pro receiver. "But there's some more similar to that, that you throw it up there. They're not covered when they're covered. We could use another big-time receiver. On offense we could use another offensive tackle. Defensively I would say the priority would have to be pass rushers, defensive ends, pass rushers -- one maybe two. And you could never have enough corners. We would like to add two corners, whether it's through free agency or whether it's through the draft.

 

"We also at some point need another [inside] linebacker. We got [one], we think, in Chris White. Kirk Morrison's up and I don't know what will happen with him but we need another linebacker. We've got some guys that are tweeners, kind of. I'm talking about [Arthur] Moats and [Danny] Batten. Those guys will get a shot at linebacker."

 

Nix on the Tackles: Buff News

 

"Nix on the offensive tackle class: "I think it's pretty good. I think there's some guys at small schools who've got the potential. It may take 'em a little bit longer but they can be left tackles in this league."

 

Nix on Reiff: "He's very athletic. He's not a power guy, but he can anchor when he has good technique."

 

Nix on Martin: "Good player, a very good player."

 

Nix on Adams: "No question, he's a huge man. If they just have to run around him, you should get the ball thrown. He's just that big. But he's athletic enough, too.""

Edited April 13, 2012 by reed83 4th Rounder

[Turn Down For Watkins]

Things seem to be awfully quiet on the Kuechly and DeCastro front.. especially since they will prolly be a couple of the better players avaialble when we pick.

Edited April 12, 2012 by U better billieve

[sllib olaffub]

The areas that will be open to improving Buffalo at 10 are CB, WR, and LT - there are multiple options available at each position. I'm guessing LT, unless Floyd is still available.

[Reed83HOF]

The areas that will be open to improving Buffalo at 10 are CB, WR, and LT - there are multiple options available at each position. I'm guessing LT, unless Floyd is still available.

 

I am really thinking that is what it is. Judging by Nix's earlier comments about Reiff, I would consider him out of the running (Not a power guy and can anchor when he has good technique. I did find his comments about Martin (Very Good) and Adams (really big have to run around him and athletic as well) interesting. I would say that the 2 starters aside from Kalil might very well be these 2. I am not sure where that leaves Cordy Glenn.

 

As far as CB, it looks like there are some knocks now on Claiborne. Gilmore or Kirkpatrick would be the CBs we are looking at. Kirkpatrick is or did come for a visit. I don't know about Gilmore though...I think Kirkpatrick is a better fit because he is a good zone guy and projects to being a great safety. As much as we like versatility on the OL, we should target these types of guys for DBs as well (I like Gilmore a lot, just saying don't count Dre out).

 

I know in other posts some people have brought up the idea of trading up or down, Nix won't do it in the first round. He said he would consider it if we were like the Falcons with Jones - if we were that one player away.

 

I also know that some have said that if we didn't bring a player or or go to a pro day, to scratch them off the list. I don't know if that would be true or not. Nix indicated that he didn't want to give other teams an advantage by saying what positions we were targeting. Floyd is the consensus #2 WR in this draft and if he is there, I would bet my last dollar we take him. We could have very well had him in and told him to keep it quiet or we could pull an Aaron Williams, who we didn't bring in or visit last year. Regardless of what some say, there is a drop off after Floyd as far as WRs go. Again think of Nawrocki's comment on Jeffrey, I know some people on here liked Jeffrey, Nawrocki's comments seem to indicate this isn't the player that Nix wants. I didn't post it, but somewhere Nix said he wants a Big WR who can get the ball and is open even when he is covered, aside from Floyd who else fits that profile in this draft?

 

Our draft needs according to Nix: a WR, 2CBs, ILB, 2 OTs (1 early, 1 late). I can't get past the end of season presser where he said our 2 biggest needs are WR and pass rushers...If Floyd is there it is him, if not it is the Martin/Adams/Glenn vs Gilmore/Kirkpatrick

Edited April 13, 2012 by reed83 4th Rounder

[KevinRome]

This is relevant data - thanks so much for taking the time to collate it.

[CarolinaBill]

Jeffret can high point the ball and thus can win ANY jump ball situation, so he can be open even if covered. He is not a burner, but has a knack for finding holes in the zones. IMO, he will be a good complement to Stevie

[Pilsner]

Reed83 thanks for posting. It's a good refresher on how Nix views things.

[1B4IDie]

 

 

Our draft needs according to Nix: a WR, 2CBs, ILB, 2 OTs (1 early, 1 late). I can't get past the end of season presser where he said our 2 biggest needs are WR and pass rushers...If Floyd is there it is him, if not it is the Martin/Adams/Glenn vs Gilmore/Kirkpatrick

 

 

Excellent job compiling all this information.

 

I agree completely here.

 

The Kuelchy, DeCastro, and Reiff talk seems misguided.

 

I think you've nailed the likely Bills draft board.

 

It's going to come down to the 6 players you mentioned.

 

Floyd

Gilmore/Kirpatrick

Martin/Adams/Glenn

 

The order of those 2 CB and 3 Tackles is the big question. We get to see the answer in about two weeks and 14 hours.

 

If the pick is outside of those 6 players (assuming the top 6 don't fall) I would be shocked.

[thebandit27]

Jeffret can high point the ball and thus can win ANY jump ball situation, so he can be open even if covered. He is not a burner, but has a knack for finding holes in the zones. IMO, he will be a good complement to Stevie

 

Yes he's big, but in my opinion he doesn't fit any of the criteria that Gailey likes in a receiver. He's not a polished route runner, he doesn't possess short-area quickness, and he's never been accused of having a great work ethic.

 

To the OP...thanks for putting this together, it's really good stuff.

 

I think we should expect the top 3 picks to be OT, CB, and WR, in whatever order the team feels they can get the best value.

Edited April 13, 2012 by thebandit27

[roccitybillsfan]

Excellent job compiling all this information.

 

I agree completely here.

 

The Kuelchy, DeCastro, and Reiff talk seems misguided.

 

I think you've nailed the likely Bills draft board.

 

It's going to come down to the 6 players you mentioned.

 

Floyd

Gilmore/Kirpatrick

Martin/Adams/Glenn

 

The order of those 2 CB and 3 Tackles is the big question. We get to see the answer in about two weeks and 14 hours.

 

If the pick is outside of those 6 players (assuming the top 6 don't fall) I would be shocked.

 

 

I agree that this is most likely too. My darkhorse option at that pick is that DE/DT/OLB Ingram. If they are high on his ability, he could be the surprise pick. I doubt it, but would not be totally shocked if they did.

[eball]

We need more posts like this on the board. Well done, reed83. I thoroughly enjoyed reading this.

[eme123]

This was well put together. Thank you

 

The nice thing about Nix is that his words are pretty concrete. I've thought all along that the Reily Reif talk was very misguided. I would even go a step further and start eliminating prospects based on character.

 

Reif- Sends cops on 20min man hunt in 2008

Kirkpatrick- Weed in his car. Says it wasn't his

Floyd- 3 Alcohol related run ins with the law

 

The Left Tackles remaining on the BIlls' best player available board are no where near 10. Also, If the best player available was a pass rusher I believe the Bills would still take him.

 

So I think our 1st rd pick can be narrowed down to two cocks. Gamecocks that is.

 

Melvin Ingram or Stephon Gilmore

[yungmack]

Well done collation. It clears away the underbrush of mock drafts and fan faves and gets us back to the Mind O' Nix. Thanks for taking the time to do this.

[qwksilver]

Nicely put together.

 

I think it's going to be Martin :" good player, very good player"

 

The only issue is one of strength, and that can be changed by taking a few injections working really hard in the weight room.

[Tommy]

Agree with most here. Great job putting this together! I think the pick would be Floyd, but I don't think he will be available. Nix is a straight shooter and his comments really do provide more insight than any mock drafts or the "experts" like McShay and Kiper.

[Billshank Redemption]

Great post, I'm really crossing my fingers for floyd but its looking more and more like a no go

[DanInUticaTampa]

I think it is going to be ot or Floyd or ot, but I really want keuchly. I think with him I would feel way more confident about the defense. I just don't think the bills are going to take him. Floyd makes me nervous with all the duis. I mean, one is no biggie, but 2 in that short period shows recklessness. That is borderline nitpicking on my part, because Floyd would be a good pick for us.

Edited April 13, 2012 by DanInUticaTampa

[Brainiac72]

I agree that this is most likely too. My darkhorse option at that pick is that DE/DT/OLB Ingram. If they are high on his ability, he could be the surprise pick. I doubt it, but would not be totally shocked if they did.

 

they are so overloaded at that spot, that i'd be beyond shocked if they took Ingram. depth is one thing, but only so many can play at a position.

 

and on Jeffrey, i disagree he has none of the targeted/desired qualities... his main strength is the singular quality that Nix specifically mentioned: being open when not open. he can go get the ball, so technically he fits the Bill as far as what Buddy said they needed. i still don't think they take him if he strikes them as lazy, but just saying.

 

i'd like to see a quote where some scout or GM or anyone actually says they think Glenn can play LT. all i see is that he flat out can't, or that they wouldn't rule it out. i think it needs to be better than that for them to pick him at 10. maybe he's one of a bunch of guys they hope someone will be left at when the 2nd round comes.

[Billshank Redemption]

 

i'd like to see a quote where some scout or GM or anyone actually says they think Glenn can play LT. all i see is that he flat out can't, or that they wouldn't rule it out. i think it needs to be better than that for them to pick him at 10. maybe he's one of a bunch of guys they hope someone will be left at when the 2nd round comes.

 

I couldn't agree more Im so sick of everyone kissing his ass when there has not been one NFL scout who can honestly say he will be a good to great lt in the pros. As for Jeffrey this may be just me being stupid but I still have james hardy stuck in my head and I can't help but feel that jeffrey looks exactly the same coming out of school, the only difference is that he played in the sec (which is a plus) I just like floyd more and ND plays against top level talent all year long. I go to MSU and we had the 4th ranked defense in college football pretty much stopped every offense that was thrown at us big name receivers the whole 9, but I specifically remember Floyd beating us every which way with sometimes awfully thrown balls and saying that I wanted him then and there. Yes he has DUIs but the dude is a gamer there is no question about that and he will be a stud for us.

[eme123]

Mayock held a hard line regarding Cordy Glenn going in the 1st round. He claimed on Path to The Draft that this kid is not a 1st round value. He has him mid 2nd round at best.