DrD's Mock Draft and 53 Man Roster

[JPS]

Good names on the mock. I think you may be optimistic with Carder, Potter and Davis. I am sure Nix would take that list and run if he could.

[DrDawkinstein]

Fitzpatrick showed he could win games when healthy, and when players around him are healthy. There's no reason to stop progress for the sake of a QB improvement right this second. If he fails this season, we'll have a good solid foundation to bring in a QB to be our "future".

 

Exactly! Keep building around Fitz, and then we'll be able to see if he can get the job done. And if he can't, worst case scenario is that we have a great foundation to bring a young QB into. We'll also be able to sacrifice picks to move up and get our QB, since we'll have less needs.

 

For now, Fitz is (and should be) our guy. Until he proves otherwise.

[Turbosrrgood]

Johnson is getting up in years, though and probably is making considerably more than Troup or Heard. I am not saying that he will or won't make the team, but I think his age will work against him in comparison to the younger guys.

 

 

Maybe, but again he has been durable.

 

To your point about money

 

Spencer Johnson is towards the end of a 5 year 17 mil deal...Making 3 mil this year. Not bad, but more than Troup or Heard.

 

Dwan Edwards is in the 3rd year of a 4 yr 18 Mil deal. 3.8 Mil this year, far exceeding his worth. Especially for an out of position backup.

 

Troup signed a 4 yr 4.6 Mil rookie contract, $490k this year. League minimum I believe.

 

Heard signed a 3 year 1.2 Mil contract, making $540k this year. League minimum.

 

*League minimum depends on when you were drafted/signed, and how many years you have accrued.

 

Troup may be the cheapest player, but I would hope the Bills would keep the best value (Skill for $), not just the cheapest.

Edited April 9, 2012 by Turbosrrgood

[thebandit27]

I appreciate the efforts Dr.

 

Now, my comments...

 

Regarding the mock:

 

- I personally believe that Floyd is not going to make it to 10. I like the player, and wouldn't be upset with the pick, but I just don't see him getting by all of Jacksonville, Miami, and Carolina, given the relatively high WR needs there and the fact that Floyd (talent wise) is widely viewed as a top 10 value.

- I would have a slight issue with 3 picks being devoted to the LB position. I very much like the LBs you selected (especially David and Davis), but--given that Buffalo played with 5 DBs or more 60% of the time last year--I have a hard time investing 3 picks in a position (No. 3 LB) that will only see the field 40% of the time.

- Love the Maze pick in round 7. I'd actually be okay if they took him 2 rounds earlier than that, as I think he could compete with Nelson and Jones early on.

 

Regarding the roster:

 

- 3 cuts that would come as a surprise to me would be Johnny White, Chris White, and Torell Troup. I'm not saying it won't happen, just that it would surprise me.

- I am totally on board with ditching Spencer Johnson and Terrence McGee. Anyone that knows me on this board knows I've been asking for this for 2+ years.

 

Nice work though.

[Turbosrrgood]

I appreciate the efforts Dr.

 

Now, my comments...

 

Regarding the mock:

 

- I personally believe that Floyd is not going to make it to 10. I like the player, and wouldn't be upset with the pick, but I just don't see him getting by all of Jacksonville, Miami, and Carolina, given the relatively high WR needs there and the fact that Floyd (talent wise) is widely viewed as a top 10 value.

- I would have a slight issue with 3 picks being devoted to the LB position. I very much like the LBs you selected (especially David and Davis), but--given that Buffalo played with 5 DBs or more 60% of the time last year--I have a hard time investing 3 picks in a position (No. 3 LB) that will only see the field 40% of the time.

- Love the Maze pick in round 7. I'd actually be okay if they took him 2 rounds earlier than that, as I think he could compete with Nelson and Jones early on.

 

Regarding the roster:

 

- 3 cuts that would come as a surprise to me would be Johnny White, Chris White, and Torell Troup. I'm not saying it won't happen, just that it would surprise me.

- I am totally on board with ditching Spencer Johnson and Terrence McGee. Anyone that knows me on this board knows I've been asking for this for 2+ years.

 

Nice work though.

 

Tough for Johnny White to make the team behind FJ, Spiller, and Choice. Gailey went with Choice over White last year, then resigned him...Choice is also a former GT guy. I don't see how White could make the team baring injury. They showed little faith in him last year, giving him virtually no chance after FJ went down.

Edited April 9, 2012 by Turbosrrgood

[NewEra]

1333996948[/url]' post='2433173']

Thanks for clicking! Over the weekend I used PFW's draft value chart, and put together a mock draft and my 53-man roster

 

Draft Disclaimer: I started by identifying our biggest needs as WR, OT, LB, and CB (in no particular order). I then made a 4x4 chart that laid out approximately which players would be available at each position in each round (basically a much smaller version of PFW's chart). I then ran through the different scenarios of addressing all of our needs in different orders. As in, what happens if we go OT-WR-LB-CB vs LB-OT-WR-CB vs CB-LB-WR-OT, etc etc...

 

Looking at all of the outcomes, I identified what I think is the draft that adds the most talent at each position of need. My final version looks like:

 

1. Michael Floyd, WR Notre Dame (assuming Blackmon is gone or else he is the pick)

2. Lavonte David, LB Nebraska

3. Casey Hayward, CB Vanderbilt

4a. Brandon Mosley, OT Auburn

4b. Josh Norman, CB Coastal Carolina

5a. Nate Potter, OT Boise St

5b. Demario Davis, LB Arkansas St

6. Tank Carder, LB TCU

7a. Marquis Maze, WR Alabama

7b. Andrew Datko, OT Florida St

 

While I really like this draft and these players, I'm not necessarily married to anyone specific. If you want to argue we should pick Wagner (OLB) in round 2 instead of David, fine. I'm not going to pretend to have a full scouting report on these guys. I wanted to address some needs of lesser priority, such as backup QB, but when looking at who might be available in the 5th-7th rounds, there just wasnt a QB available that was worth sacrificing a better player for.

 

Final 53-Man Roster:

Lindell, K

Moorman, P

Sanborn, LS

 

Brown, C

Wood, C

Levitre, LG

Urbik, RG

Rinehart, G

Hairston, LT

Pears, RT

Mosely, OT

Potter, OT

 

Caussin, TE

Chandler, TE

Smith, TE

S. Johnson, WR

Floyd, WR

Nelson, WR

edit:Rooselvelt, WR

Easley, WR

Jones, WR

McIntyre, FB

Choice, RB

Jackson, RB

Spiller, RB

Fitzpatrick, QB

Thigpen, QB

Smith, QB/WR

 

K Williams, DT

Dareus, DT

Edwards, DT

Heard, DT

edit: S. Johnson, DT/DE

M Williams, DE

Anderson, DE

Kelsay, DE

Merriman, DE

Carrington, DE

 

Sheppard, ILB

Carder, ILB

Barnett, OLB

Morrison, OLB

David, OLB

Davis, LB

 

Florence, CB

Williams, CB

McKelvin, CB

Hayward, CB

Rogers, CB

Byrd, FS

Norman, CB/FS

Wilson, SS

Searcy, SS

Scott, S/LB

 

Practice Squad:

Maze, WR

Datko, OL

Jasper, G

C White, OLB

 

 

I do not believe McGee makes it through camp healthy. Or it is at least obvious that he can not keep up anymore.

If Merriman doesnt make it through camp, I replace him with Batten/Eddins

If Easley doesnt make it through camp, I replace him with Aiken or Maze

Could also send CB-Norman to Practice Squad (Wilson backup FS, and Scott backup SS) and keep another player (like a 5th DT).

 

 

What you think, folks?

 

I'd **** myself if we could land that draft. The only thing I might do, is throw a TE in there over a LB or OT.

[Wagon Circler]

I thought Chris White showed some things at MLB before he got hurt. Not ready to give up on him just yet.

McGee remains our best corner when healthy.

[rstencel]

I think it's highly unlikely Troup is kept over Heard, baring a spectacular training camp. Injuries or not, the fact of the matter is that Troup has shown exactly nothing during his 2 years in the NFL (other than chronic back problems). Heard is big, explosive, and durable, a very good guy to have for depth.

 

Ruvell Martin has a strong chance to make the team, the Bills signed him specifically for his ST prowess. Other than SJ and Nelson though, no other WR's are "locked in". The lack of talent behind them is scary, so hopefully the Bills take at least 2 in the draft.

 

Disagree, if Troup is healthy, which is a big if maybe, there is no comparison. Heard is big, but is easily taken out of plays, once he gets moving a direction, its been pretty easy to just keep him moving that way. Slow first step, doesnt require more than one player to block him. Basically just a big body for rotation. Troup is allot more athletic, and capable of being starter with more seasoning rather than just a body on roster like Heard.

 

If Troup is cut there will be multiple teams calling him, unless Back doesnt recover, cause of the talent he has. If heard gets cut, would be very surprised if gets more than a practice squad invite.

 

I'd **** myself if we could land that draft. The only thing I might do, is throw a TE in there over a LB or OT.

 

 

Maybe over the 2nd corner, but need is very high for LB and OT, and are so many players that are undrafted that can fillout roster for training camp at CB, and have just as good a chance at making the squad as the 2nd one drafted.

[NewEra]

1334001766[/url]' post='2433248']

Maybe, but again he has been durable.

 

To your point about money

 

Spencer Johnson is towards the end of a 5 year 17 mil deal...Making 3 mil this year. Not bad, but more than Troup or Heard.

 

Dwan Edwards is in the 3rd year of a 4 yr 18 Mil deal. 3.8 Mil this year, far exceeding his worth. Especially for an out of position backup.

 

Troup signed a 4 yr 4.6 Mil rookie contract, $490k this year. League minimum I believe.

 

Heard signed a 3 year 1.2 Mil contract, making $540k this year. League minimum.

 

*League minimum depends on when you were drafted/signed, and how many years you have accrued.

 

Troup may be the cheapest player, but I would hope the Bills would keep the best value (Skill for $), not just the cheapest.

 

Spencer might be getting paid more than troupe and heard, but he's far more productive IMO. I think the move to the 3-4 really hurt his productivity as well. His bet fit is at a 4-3 DT IMO. Not sure how heard and troupe will fair in that roll. Edwards should be cut if we can put that money to better use. If he's kept, I can see him being Ok playing 4-3 DT and DE in obvious running situations.

 

1334008595[/url]' post='2433361']

Disagree, if Troup is healthy, which is a big if maybe, there is no comparison. Heard is big, but is easily taken out of plays, once he gets moving a direction, its been pretty easy to just keep him moving that way. Slow first step, doesnt require more than one player to block him. Basically just a big body for rotation. Troup is allot more athletic, and capable of being starter with more seasoning rather than just a body on roster like Heard.

 

If Troup is cut there will be multiple teams calling him, unless Back doesnt recover, cause of the talent he has. If heard gets cut, would be very surprised if gets more than a practice squad invite.

 

 

 

 

Maybe over the 2nd corner, but need is very high for LB and OT, and are so many players that are undrafted that can fillout roster for training camp at CB, and have just as good a chance at making the squad as the 2nd one drafted.

 

I hear ya. If we got David and Davis I'd be happy with our lbs. I think both will be decent starters with David having a chance to be special.

[bananathumb]

Exactly! Keep building around Fitz, and then we'll be able to see if he can get the job done. And if he can't, worst case scenario is that we have a great foundation to bring a young QB into. We'll also be able to sacrifice picks to move up and get our QB, since we'll have less needs.

 

For now, Fitz is (and should be) our guy. Until he proves otherwise.

 

 

He already has, I suggest, after watching his games.

[John from Riverside]

He already has, I suggest, after watching his games.

 

Noted banana.....but since he is in fact the QB of the bills?

[Dorkington]

He already has, I suggest, after watching his games.

Ok, lets say you are right, and Fitzpatrick is horrible.

 

What do you propose we do, right now?

[DrDawkinstein]

Thanks for the responses, all!

 

A couple of things I wanted to respond to...

 

 

- I would have a slight issue with 3 picks being devoted to the LB position. I very much like the LBs you selected (especially David and Davis), but--given that Buffalo played with 5 DBs or more 60% of the time last year--I have a hard time investing 3 picks in a position (No. 3 LB) that will only see the field 40% of the time.

 

Regarding the roster:

 

- 3 cuts that would come as a surprise to me would be Johnny White, Chris White, and Torell Troup. I'm not saying it won't happen, just that it would surprise me.

 

 

VERY good point about the LBs vs DBs with us in the Nickle. However, we need depth at those LB positions in case of injury, and to play Special Teams. I also see those guys as upgrades to the LBs we'd have as backups currently. I think we have more depth at DB currently, and especially with the 2 from this draft. Just my logic on why I went that way.

 

WRT the cuts, Turbo gave my reason for Johnny White. I kept Chris White on the practice squad. And Im just not sure whats up with Troup.

 

I'd **** myself if we could land that draft. The only thing I might do, is throw a TE in there over a LB or OT.

 

Ha! As a sidenote, after posted this I told my buddy "the saddest part is now that it's published, it basically guarantees that it wont happen in reality"

 

I wanted to grab a late TE, but there just werent any there that seemed like a better addition than those other late round picks.

 

QB and TE were my secondary needs, but I just couldnt justify any of them.

 

 

I thought Chris White showed some things at MLB before he got hurt. Not ready to give up on him just yet.

McGee remains our best corner when healthy.

 

McGee hasnt been healthy in years. YEARS. Dude is 31 going on 75.

 

He already has, I suggest, after watching his games.

 

When the team was healthy and we were "stocked" with talent, Fitz was one of the best in the League. We have him signed and I dont see anyone available that would be an instant upgrade. We'd also be ruining the team chemistry on Offense that has been built around Fitz.

Edited April 9, 2012 by DrDareustein

[John from Riverside]

Ok, lets say you are right, and Fitzpatrick is horrible.

 

What do you propose we do, right now?

 

 

Complain....of course...

[habes1280]

Thanks for clicking! Over the weekend I used PFW's draft value chart, and put together a mock draft and my 53-man roster

 

Draft Disclaimer: I started by identifying our biggest needs as WR, OT, LB, and CB (in no particular order). I then made a 4x4 chart that laid out approximately which players would be available at each position in each round (basically a much smaller version of PFW's chart). I then ran through the different scenarios of addressing all of our needs in different orders. As in, what happens if we go OT-WR-LB-CB vs LB-OT-WR-CB vs CB-LB-WR-OT, etc etc...

 

Looking at all of the outcomes, I identified what I think is the draft that adds the most talent at each position of need. My final version looks like:

 

1. Michael Floyd, WR Notre Dame (assuming Blackmon is gone or else he is the pick)

2. Lavonte David, LB Nebraska

3. Casey Hayward, CB Vanderbilt

4a. Brandon Mosley, OT Auburn

4b. Josh Norman, CB Coastal Carolina

5a. Nate Potter, OT Boise St

5b. Demario Davis, LB Arkansas St

6. Tank Carder, LB TCU

7a. Marquis Maze, WR Alabama

7b. Andrew Datko, OT Florida St

 

While I really like this draft and these players, I'm not necessarily married to anyone specific. If you want to argue we should pick Wagner (OLB) in round 2 instead of David, fine. I'm not going to pretend to have a full scouting report on these guys. I wanted to address some needs of lesser priority, such as backup QB, but when looking at who might be available in the 5th-7th rounds, there just wasnt a QB available that was worth sacrificing a better player for.

 

[What you think, folks?

 

I like this mock, actually. A lot of sizzle without sacrificing picks to move up in the order.

 

I hate admitting this, but even with the free agent bounty, we're still entering the draft with more holes than we have premier picks. And that's not pessimism.

 

So while I'd have liked to see more attention paid to the offensive line in the early rounds, the board just might not give us that opportunity. I love the Mosley pick in the 4th, but would have been even more excited if we'd have fortified the line with another lineman later in the round-- someone like James Brown (assuming he slips a bit).

[DrDawkinstein]

I like this mock, actually. A lot of sizzle without sacrificing picks to move up in the order.

 

I hate admitting this, but even with the free agent bounty, we're still entering the draft with more holes than we have premier picks. And that's not pessimism.

So while I'd have liked to see more attention paid to the offensive line in the early rounds, the board just might not give us that opportunity. I love the Mosley pick in the 4th, but would have been even more excited if we'd have fortified the line with another lineman later in the round-- someone like James Brown (assuming he slips a bit).

 

Ehhh, not so sure about that. We have 5 picks in the top 125, and 10 picks total. Last year Buddy turned 5 picks in the top 125 into 4 starters. And Searcy looks promising.

 

No GM (or fan) ever feels as if their roster is "fully complete". There will always be some holes to fill and guys to upgrade. The good news is that we have far less holes than previous years, and that list has been shortened every year Nix has been in charge. If we could pull off this draft (or something similar/better) then we really dont have many holes left, just upgrades.

 

Playing along, let's assume we pull off this draft. Where are the biggest holes as you see them?

Edited April 10, 2012 by DrDareustein

[bigc14120]

Jones doesn't belong on the roster, bad hands. to bad we can't have Jones speed with Roesevelt's hnads.

[buffaloaggie]

Good job on this. The only complaint is, of course, no QB picked. Other than that, I like the quality in the 1st at WR, and flooding the roster with OT's hoping one will pan out. Who knows? CB depth is always a priority considering what they command when their rookie contracts expire.

 

I think Maze would make the 53 as a return specialist. I don't want to say who he reminds me of though, cause I wouldn't want to jinx him. Also, the Bills have to take Ryan Miller, OG from Colorado...just sayin'.

[boyst]

With the ability of many of those DE's to play LB I am not sure about the quantity of LB's, either.

 

In so many places we are stacked with starters and depth. At SS we have 3 guys who are capable of starting. Wilson is a solid starter, Searcy is learning a lot and going to be up there one day (although, with Wilson's play he could likely go on to another team when he's ready to start), and Scott who is a starter at Monster, capable of taking hits that many cannot.

 

Our 4-3 DL has rotational guys and backups that are on par with many other teams in this leagues starting units. Dwan Edwards was the most consistent football player on this DL last year. He didn't show flashes of brilliance, he didn't tear the field up. What he did do was not take a play off, not get manhandled, and not get caught out of place. He is an asset to our line that I hope we can continue to utilize. The Johnson/Troup/Heard/and maybe Edwards combo is something that will be up for debate for years - and no one even noticed Moats was cut! Keeping Carrington on this team is hard to do but he has shown he is more capable of playing then many others. Carrington's a player that needs to take some time to develop and even then what comes at the end might not be all that great. With Anderson now on this team we could look at Kelsay. Does Kelsay really need on this team? Shouldn't we develop younger players? I do not think so in this case. There is always a lot of talent out there on the market of DL and above that we have a young enough lineup that we can count on them for years. Although, I could see us drafting a late round DT to compete in camp and he could win a spot over someone else at the bottom.

 

With Spiller playing a lot of time at WR I do not think we need Jones because he does not bring enough to the table. I think Gailey would rather spend time working on a project who is a big physical player to compete for the balls then give time to someone who's going to split time with an RB/WR/KR/PR. I almost think we'd retain a TE over Jones, a TE who can play split, or something - which is why I would not be surprised to see an athletic player drafted for this role. BTW, if anyone knows of such a player, I would be interested in learning about him.

[JOE IN HAMPTON ROADS]

Exactly! Keep building around Fitz, and then we'll be able to see if he can get the job done. And if he can't, worst case scenario is that we have a great foundation to bring a young QB into. We'll also be able to sacrifice picks to move up and get our QB, since we'll have less needs.

 

For now, Fitz is (and should be) our guy. Until he proves otherwise.

I agree with this, Fitz is the guy this year. But Thigpen as the only alternative? I suppose Smith could come in a pinch. But is there no decent QB available for depth?