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Nolan Nawrocki's

Estro

By Estro
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Estro Veteran

Estro

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As much as I plug this guy you'd think I worked for PFW.com, which I don't. I just happen to really respect his insight for draft value, and where players will come off the board. Let's not forget he's accurately predicted the Bills round 1 pick the last 5 years. He has connections, unlike the million other draft pundits. Keep in mind this is not how Nawrocki rates the prospects, but rather where he thinks they come off the board according to league value. Enjoy!

 

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2012/04/06/pfws-exclusive-draft-value-chart-7

 

 

Just a few quick thoughts:

1. Looks like the Josh Robinson, CB (UCF) hype is real. He has him rated as the #4 CB, coming off the board early round 2. Do the Bills even have a shot at him at #41?

2. My favorite 4-3 OLB in the draft has a shot to be there at #41, LaVonte David. Has him coming off in the middle of round #2.

3. Looks like my boy Rueben Randle will be long gone as expected by pick #41. Views him as a late 1st rounder. Would be a perfect Z receiver compliment to Stevie.

4. Cordy Glenn the #2 rated OT in the draft, as I suspect he is on Buddy's board. I've made numerous posts about Cordy Glenn, so no need to dive in again other than to say this: All signs continue to point to Cordy Glenn being a Buffalo Bill.

Edited by Estro
Estro Veteran

Estro

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This is the same guy that shat all over Cam last year right? I'll take his "insight" with a giant grain of salt

 

Can't win 'em all. I'll judge him on his entire body of work rather than one single misevaluation though. Nolan may have not been too high on Cam, but he did have him going #1 overall to the Panthers in his mock draft, which is what we're looking for here: accuracy in predicting what players will land with what teams. He pegged 12 players to the exact teams that ended up selecting them in round 1 in his final mock draft last year, that's pretty damn impressive.

JPS Veteran

JPS

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Posted

It's not that hard to predict 1 team, especially if you are updating your draft right before. I think half the football world has us taking Reiff or Floyd. Does that make Nawrocki a genius?

 

Again. He follows Buchsbaum's format, but he's no Buchsbaum.

 

BTW, if you follow Nix's comments that he doesn't see guys the same way, maybe he's not talking about Cordy Glenn. Maybe he's talking about a completely different position like LB. Just a random thought.

papazoid All Pro

papazoid

Posted
Posted

Mel Kiper's latest comment on Glenn:

 

Huge but pretty good on his feet, Glenn is a versatile lineman. He's played all over and could be on some boards as a tackle, but can dominate at guard, and I'd expect whoever drafts him to ultimately have him blocking inside.

CBD RFA

CBD

Posted
Posted

Mel Kiper's latest comment on Glenn:

 

Huge but pretty good on his feet, Glenn is a versatile lineman. He's played all over and could be on some boards as a tackle, but can dominate at guard, and I'd expect whoever drafts him to ultimately have him blocking inside.

Was going to mention, notice where he has Glenn rated in comparison to all other linemen.

NewEra Hall of Famer

NewEra

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Posted
1333786443[/url]' post='2432165']

This is the same guy that shat all over Cam last year right? I'll take his "insight" with a giant grain of salt

 

Name one guy that nails every player for what he is. You can't. So no ones opinion means anything.

NoSaint Hall of Famer

NoSaint

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Nix did make a comment that they have a guy rated at tackle differently than others will. I assumed Glenn was that guy (he has him tackle, others guard)

JohnC All Pro

JohnC

Posted
Posted

As much as I plug this guy you'd think I worked for PFW.com, which I don't. I just happen to really respect his insight for draft value, and where players will come off the board. Let's not forget he's accurately predicted the Bills round 1 pick the last 5 years. He has connections, unlike the million other draft pundits. Keep in mind this is not how Nawrocki rates the prospects, but rather where he thinks they come off the board according to league value. Enjoy!

 

http://www.profootballweekly.com/2012/04/06/pfws-exclusive-draft-value-chart-7

 

 

Just a few quick thoughts:

1. Looks like the Josh Robinson, CB (UCF) is real. He has him rated as the #4 CB, coming off the board early round 2. Do the Bills even have a shot at him at #41?

2. My favorite 4-3 OLB in the draft has a shot to be there at #41. Has him coming off in the middle of round #2.

3. Looks like my boy Rueben Randle will be long gone as expected by pick #41. Views him as a late 1st rounder. Would be a perfect Z receiver compliment to Stevie.

4. Cordy Glenn the #2 rated OT in the draft, as I suspect he is on Buddy's board. I've made numerous posts about Cordy Glenn, so no need to dive in again other than to say this: All signs continue to point to Cordy Glenn being a Buffalo Bill.

 

Very informative post.

 

Cordy Glenn is a Buddy Nix type of lineman. Big and bulky, yet can move very well. If he is taken it won't be a major surprise, maybe a small surprise.

San Jose Bills Fan Hall of Famer

San Jose Bills Fan

Posted
Posted (edited)

Thanks very much for posting Estro!

 

Great stuff.

 

No one even comes close to Nawrocki in terms of accuracy in predicting the first round, or draft values in general.

 

The naysayers are way off base here.

 

Interesting… two first round running backs and two first round guards.

 

He has my guy Cordy Glenn as the second tackle off the board.

 

Also he has Bruce Irvin being taken in the middle of the 3rd round as a defensive end… I guess these players are being listed at their college positions. But I think Irvin will play linebacker in the pros. He's maxed out at 245 pounds.

Edited by San Jose Bills Fan
peterpan Veteran

peterpan

Posted
Posted

If this is how it pans out this is my mock:

1- D DeCastro G

2- J Martin OT

3- B Irvin LB, but would like to trade up for Sanu WR or even Adams T

4a- J Crick DL

4b- R Wilson QB

5a- T Streeter WR

5b- N Potter LT

6- T Carder LB

7a- M Maze WR

7b - a kicker/punter

BuffaloRebound Veteran

BuffaloRebound

Posted
Posted

Nix did make a comment that they have a guy rated at tackle differently than others will. I assumed Glenn was that guy (he has him tackle, others guard)

 

If that's true, why would we take him at #10? Take Floyd then trade back up to get Glenn. If a lot of teams view him as a guard, then he has Decastro ahead of him and could fall to the end of the 1st. Or if Bills aren't sold on Floyd at #10, trade back. Worst case Glenn and Floyd are gone, but Kirkpatrick or Gilmore are still available.

San Jose Bills Fan Hall of Famer

San Jose Bills Fan

Posted
Posted

If that's true, why would we take him at #10? Take Floyd then trade back up to get Glenn. If a lot of teams view him as a guard, then he has Decastro ahead of him and could fall to the end of the 1st. Or if Bills aren't sold on Floyd at #10, trade back. Worst case Glenn and Floyd are gone, but Kirkpatrick or Gilmore are still available.

Trade back up to what spot?

 

The Bills pick at what, #41 in the 2nd round? How much do you think it'll cost to move back up into the 20s?

 

Do you think Nix wants to give up picks to move back into the first round?

 

More plausibly (still unlikely) is that the Bills would trade down from #10 to pick up an extra pick.

 

 

KOKBILLS All Pro

KOKBILLS

Posted
Posted

Mel Kiper's latest comment on Glenn:

 

Huge but pretty good on his feet, Glenn is a versatile lineman. He's played all over and could be on some boards as a tackle, but can dominate at guard, and I'd expect whoever drafts him to ultimately have him blocking inside.

 

It's funny, but I think The Bills will REALLY like Glenn because he's going to remind them a bit of Hairston...He's a HUGE man who has better feet than you would expect...I'm not in favor of Drafting any of these OT's not named Kalil at #10 overall...I don't think there is good value there...But in a Trade Down scenario I would LOVE to snag Glenn...I think he's going to be a better Pro than Reiff, Adams, or Martin...I think he would push Pears, or one of the OG's big-time as a Rookie, and add MUCH need OT depth... B-)

BuffaloRebound Veteran

BuffaloRebound

Posted
Posted

Trade back up to what spot?

 

The Bills pick at what, #41 in the 2nd round? How much do you think it'll cost to move back up into the 20s?

 

Do you think Nix wants to give up picks to move back into the first round?

 

More plausibly (still unlikely) is that the Bills would trade down from #10 to pick up an extra pick.

 

Our 2nd and 3rd could probably get us into the mid-20's.

We'd still have two 4th rounders and two 5th-rounders.

Reed83HOF All Pro

Reed83HOF

Posted
Posted

Trade back up to what spot?

 

The Bills pick at what, #41 in the 2nd round? How much do you think it'll cost to move back up into the 20s?

 

Do you think Nix wants to give up picks to move back into the first round?

 

More plausibly (still unlikely) is that the Bills would trade down from #10 to pick up an extra pick.

 

I wouldn't hate that move, it would fill 2 gaping holes for us. IIRC we gave up our second and third for McCargo (#42 & 73). We took him at #27. I wouldn't mind burning a third rounder and end up with Floyd and Glenn....

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