1billsfan Posted April 6, 2012 Author Share Posted April 6, 2012 What happens if that first rounder turns out to be much later. The Bengals drafted 4th last year and 21st this year. That is besides the fact that picks a year away are generally considered a round later in trade discussions. In that scenario you would be trading #10 for 2nd round picks. That is not how you win. It's a scenario that I find interesting because it does deal with a high risk/high reward "gambling" aspect. I hope that Fitzpatrick is great this year and leads us to the playoffs and looks like a true "late blooming" franchise QB, but what if he doesn't do that? How great would it be to have two high draft picks and one that could be in the franchise QB range? It was just a hypothetical that I hadn't really seen discussed here, so I thought I'd bring it up during this slow, pre-draft part of the offseason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRivRoc Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 If Claiborne fell to #10, the Bills better sprint to the podium to take him. ^^this^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrags Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Yes, but isn't it tempting to have an insurance policy in case Fitzpatrick flames out this year? We all saw how much it took for the Redskins to get RGIII. I agree about Blackmon, I would keep the pick and draft him. I was talking more about Claiborne or Richardson. It's far fetched that either one would be there, but the draft sometimes has big surprises that sets weird scenarios in motion. Look. Here's the deal. If Fitz "flames" out this year you worry about that next year. They have all thier eggs into the Fitz basket tight now and he deserves this year to prove it. And personally if Fitz even does what he did last year it will be enough to take us to the playoffs, assuming the defense is much better than last year and that should be a sure bet. Fitz did throw for more yards last year than Jim Kelly ever threw for in a Bills uniform. If he didn't have more TDs in a season it was pretty close as well (not on a computer and too lazy to look it up on iPhone). I know it's a different game now but not that much. Fitz still had a good year. Very Eli Manning like from his first Super Bowl run. Lots of yards, descent TDs, and lots of picks. If anything, I worry about Chan having Fitz throw too much and not run enough FJ and CJ. Rhe las few weeks last year were pitiful how good CJ was running in the first half of games only to completely abandon the run game in the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Bills gave up a high second round pick and fifth round pick as well as next years #1 to trade back in to the first round, pick number 22, to get Losman. To trade out of 10 it will take more (much more) than this year's second and next years number one. I completely agree. And with the new CBA, the price more than likely went even higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McBeane Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 I don't know why everyone refuses to believe Buddy when he states that he does not like moving around in the draft. It is clear we will not be trading anywhere in the first round. Later in the draft, sure it could happen, but not in the first round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 It's a scenario that I find interesting because it does deal with a high risk/high reward "gambling" aspect. I hope that Fitzpatrick is great this year and leads us to the playoffs and looks like a true "late blooming" franchise QB, but what if he doesn't do that? How great would it be to have two high draft picks and one that could be in the franchise QB range? It was just a hypothetical that I hadn't really seen discussed here, so I thought I'd bring it up during this slow, pre-draft part of the offseason. You're right. Thus far, Fitz has not shown he's a franchise quarterback. The best measure of that is yards per pass attempt, not yards over the course of a season. (Especially not when comparing seasons from the early '90s against modern day, more pass-happy seasons!) This past year, Fitz averaged 6.7 yards per pass attempt. He'd averaged 6.8 yards per attempt the season prior. While those numbers are better than Trent Edwards' career average of 6.5 yards per attempt, they're not in the 7.2 - 7.4 yards per attempt range a QB needs to achieve to be considered franchise. The reason Fitz isn't there is because of his lack of accuracy. That lack was on display even early in the season. Against the Patriots, for example, Fitz threw a number of inaccurate passes. Some of them should have been intercepted, and would have been had the Patriots' secondary been halfway decent. Fitz did not play at or near the level Eli Manning played during the postseason leading up to his first Super Bowl win. Manning was on fire during that postseason, and was much, much more accurate than we (or anyone else) has ever seen from Fitz. Suppose that the Bills acquire an extra first round pick in next year's draft. And suppose that, this season, Fitz does something he's never done before. Namely, play at the level of a franchise QB. Should both those things happen, there's nothing which would force the Bills to use their extra 2013 first rounder on a QB. I'd probably take a quarterback anyway, assuming there was a franchise QB there to be taken. A franchise quarterback is far more valuable than a successful player at any other position. Nine out of the last 10 Super Bowls have been won by teams with franchise QBs. Teams good enough to win Super Bowls without having franchise QBs are very rare. The Bills don't have the talent to be one of those teams. Nor will the 2012 draft be enough to fix that. A "win now" mentality is unjustifiable, unless the goal is to make the playoffs and get eliminated in the divisional round. Someone suggested the idea of trading away next year's first round pick to move up for Kalil. I love the thought of the Bills taking Kalil, and elsewhere have suggested that they trade away their second round pick in this year's draft to move up to get him. But the idea of trading away our first round pick in next year's draft, for any reason other than to acquire a young, franchise QB, is a horrible one! The Bills cannot afford to part with that pick while their quarterback situation remains in its current state! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shibuya Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 If we could swap 1st rd picks with a team in this years draft, and procure a 1st rd pick in 2013 as ammunition to move up and take a franchise QB in 2013 then I like the idea.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheKidd Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 Would it be possible, if say a Claiborne or Richardson fell to pick #10, that the Bills would trade this pick to a team in the top part of the 2nd round this year for that team's 2013 first round pick? For instance, if Claiborne fell to #10 and St. Loius wanted to trade their 2nd round (#33) pick for our #10 and the Bills get the Rams 1st round pick in next years draft. I don't know if this is plausible, but if it were, I'd sign on for it in a second. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- See, we would all make better GMs than we currently have. Look at all these different trade scenarios the posters came up with. Imagination and a willingness to try and do something. But we all know down deep our front office is just going to stay pat with the 10th selection and pick an offensive tackle, (Reily Reiff or Jonathin Martin). Or even worse, trade down for a draft choice that isn't worth trading down for. I wouldn't go lower in the first round if I couldn't gain at least a 1st or 2nd rounder. I hope Buddy isn't dumb enough to trade down for a 3rd or 4th round pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Someone suggested the idea of trading away next year's first round pick to move up for Kalil. I love the thought of the Bills taking Kalil, and elsewhere have suggested that they trade away their second round pick in this year's draft to move up to get him. But the idea of trading away our first round pick in next year's draft, for any reason other than to acquire a young, franchise QB, is a horrible one! The Bills cannot afford to part with that pick while their quarterback situation remains in its current state! Here is the thing, EA: don't you think that Chan and Buddy might be under the impression that they need to win THIS YEAR in order to keep their jobs? They've had two sub-.500 seasons, and Ralph just doled out a fortune to upgrade the roster during free agency. There is a very good chance that they think they need to become more aggressive on draft day 2012 in order to save their jobs. If I'm right, trading up is a real option, especially since there is a glaring hole at LT right now and only 1 blue chip player in the draft who can fill that hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stony Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Here is the thing, EA: don't you think that Chan and Buddy might be under the impression that they need to win THIS YEAR in order to keep their jobs? They've had two sub-.500 seasons, and Ralph just doled out a fortune to upgrade the roster during free agency. There is a very good chance that they think they need to become more aggressive on draft day 2012 in order to save their jobs. If I'm right, trading up is a real option, especially since there is a glaring hole at LT right now and only 1 blue chip player in the draft who can fill that hole. I agree with your reasoning but just don't see the Bills moving up from 10. I expect the Bills to plug some holes (potentially starting ones) ala Nick Barnett once cap casualties starting hitting the market. The team is still in very good shape cap wise to pick up some nice veterans during camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Here is the thing, EA: don't you think that Chan and Buddy might be under the impression that they need to win THIS YEAR in order to keep their jobs? They've had two sub-.500 seasons, and Ralph just doled out a fortune to upgrade the roster during free agency. There is a very good chance that they think they need to become more aggressive on draft day 2012 in order to save their jobs. If I'm right, trading up is a real option, especially since there is a glaring hole at LT right now and only 1 blue chip player in the draft who can fill that hole. A "mortgage the future to win today" mentality is the reason for a significant portion of the Bills' draft day mistakes over the past decade. The perpetual fixation on drafting RBs is one example, because RBs are felt to have the ability to make an immediate impact. Letting Antoine Winfield go first-contract-and-out is another example, because over the short-term, it was felt that Lawyer Milloy and Troy Vincent, together, could make a greater impact than Antoine Winfield would have made. (TD was wrong about the short-term. And certainly, Winfield made a much greater contribution to the Vikings, over the long run, than Milloy and Vincent made to the Bills.) The Bledsoe trade was still another example of eating the seed corn. So too was the first round of the 2006 draft. Marv felt the Bills had to become solid right away, and that the best way to do that was with a good defense. He and Jauron believed that the best way to shore up the Bills' defense right away was to add a SS and DT (not necessarily in that order) with their first two draft picks. That's why the Bills focused on SS and DT in the first round of the 2006 draft, and ended up with two busts. The Whitner pick should have been used on Cutler, and the McCargo pick should have been used on Mangold. But Marv and Jauron were too caught up in "win now" to see that; or to seriously consider non-DTs/SSs in the first round. You are correct to assert that the "win now" mentality may well still be present. You may also be correct in saying that Ralph may be applying "win now" pressure; thereby giving Nix and Gailey a valid reason for wanting to win now. But if Ralph is applying that kind of pressure, then he also needs to forbid Nix from doing anything which would shortchange the future. This means no drafting a RB in the first round, and no trading away early picks from next year's draft! If Ralph is pressuring the front office into a "win now" mindset, and isn't preventing them from using measures which would win today by mortgaging the future, then he's setting the team up for exactly the kind of failure it's experienced over the last decade! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 A "mortgage the future to win today" mentality is the reason for a significant portion of the Bills' draft day mistakes over the past decade. The perpetual fixation on drafting RBs is one example, because RBs are felt to have the ability to make an immediate impact. Letting Antoine Winfield go first-contract-and-out is another example, because over the short-term, it was felt that Lawyer Milloy and Troy Vincent, together, could make a greater impact than Antoine Winfield would have made. (TD was wrong about the short-term. And certainly, Winfield made a much greater contribution to the Vikings, over the long run, than Milloy and Vincent made to the Bills.) The Bledsoe trade was still another example of eating the seed corn. So too was the first round of the 2006 draft. Marv felt the Bills had to become solid right away, and that the best way to do that was with a good defense. He and Jauron believed that the best way to shore up the Bills' defense right away was to add a SS and DT (not necessarily in that order) with their first two draft picks. That's why the Bills focused on SS and DT in the first round of the 2006 draft, and ended up with two busts. The Whitner pick should have been used on Cutler, and the McCargo pick should have been used on Mangold. But Marv and Jauron were too caught up in "win now" to see that; or to seriously consider non-DTs/SSs in the first round. You are correct to assert that the "win now" mentality may well still be present. You may also be correct in saying that Ralph may be applying "win now" pressure; thereby giving Nix and Gailey a valid reason for wanting to win now. But if Ralph is applying that kind of pressure, then he also needs to forbid Nix from doing anything which would shortchange the future. This means no drafting a RB in the first round, and no trading away early picks from next year's draft! If Ralph is pressuring the front office into a "win now" mindset, and isn't preventing them from using measures which would win today by mortgaging the future, then he's setting the team up for exactly the kind of failure it's experienced over the last decade! On the one hand I agree with you but I also disagree. Perhaps it's not so much "win now" as it is "don't lose now." Nix and Gailey might be a bit more secure in their abilities and jobs than their predecessors and they may realize they don't need to go 14-2 to keep their jobs. But they rightly should be concerned that another 5-11 season will doom their careers. The best way to a total implosion is to go into the season with no starting-caliber left tackle on the roster (we've seen that movie before). Trading up for Kalil (and trading away a 2013 #1) isn't the same thing as drafting a safety or a running back (although it is similar to the Bledsoe deal). They may feel that the team is one key position away from actually being competitive, and that they can't afford another season of sub-competitive play... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rstencel Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 If Claiborne fell to #10, the Bills better sprint to the podium to take him. LOL, another first round rb, wow really. They would see all thier momentum in season ticket sales sprinting back to return thier tickets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach Tuesday Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 LOL, another first round rb, wow really. They would see all thier momentum in season ticket sales sprinting back to return thier tickets. Come on dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefenseWinzChampionshipz Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 LOL, another first round rb, wow really. They would see all thier momentum in season ticket sales sprinting back to return thier tickets. Who's the running back you're talking about? Claiborne? (cuz he's not) or the sprinter sprinting to the podium? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rstencel Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 (edited) Come on dude. LOL, Not sure why got Richardson and Clairborne mixed up. Sorry. Edited April 9, 2012 by rstencel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KD in CA Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 LOL, another first round rb, wow really. They would see all thier momentum in season ticket sales sprinting back to return thier tickets. Maybe they should draft Ingram instead to fill the need at WR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orton's Arm Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 On the one hand I agree with you but I also disagree. Perhaps it's not so much "win now" as it is "don't lose now." Nix and Gailey might be a bit more secure in their abilities and jobs than their predecessors and they may realize they don't need to go 14-2 to keep their jobs. But they rightly should be concerned that another 5-11 season will doom their careers. The best way to a total implosion is to go into the season with no starting-caliber left tackle on the roster (we've seen that movie before). Trading up for Kalil (and trading away a 2013 #1) isn't the same thing as drafting a safety or a running back (although it is similar to the Bledsoe deal). They may feel that the team is one key position away from actually being competitive, and that they can't afford another season of sub-competitive play... I love the idea of adding Kalil. He can be a vital component of this team over the long term. I also agree that LT is a serious and immediate need, and that a LT is probably the third most important position on the football field. (After QB and RDE.) Unfortunately, the Bills also have a hole at the most important position on the football field. If Nix's regime does nothing to seriously address that need this year, and deprives itself of the draft day resources to address the position next year, it all but guarantees failure to win the Super Bowl over the next five years. Kalil is worth trading up for, and I'd be willing to part with both our second and third round picks if that's what it takes to get him. But as vital as this player is, he must not come at the expense of the Bills' ability to draft a franchise QB in 2013! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebug Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Maybe they should draft Ingram instead to fill the need at WR. Dude, you do know that Ingram is a kicker, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 hell no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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