Draft: what do you do if at #10

[Kelly the Dog]

I'd be willing to bet that most of those complaining what a problem kid Michael Floyd is/was because of his DUI have driven drunk just as much or more than he has, they just were lucky enough not to be caught.

 

I'm not saying DUI is not a problem, driving drunk is a smart thing, or that he doesn't have a drinking problem, although all indications are that he has cleaned himself up, The self-righteousness of most people about DUIs when they often do it themselves and don't think of themselves as being a problem or that they should be not considered for a job because of it is pretty laughable.

Edited April 3, 2012 by Kelly the Dog

[metzelaars_lives]

So to be clear, there are 43 people on here who would trade down if Justin Blackmon is there at 10??? Do you think it's hip to say "trade down" to everything? Like you know something the rest of us don't? You trade down if your guy(s) ISN'T there! Not if your dream player miraculously falls to you!

Edited April 3, 2012 by metzelaars_lives

[sharebear]

Does anybody think we can get fleener in the 2nd round? or trade down and pick decastro and hopefully land fleener? If we can somehow get him 2nd pick it will be a good draft year regardless, I have a feeling hes gonna be big at TE

[Bill from NYC]

Let's say a trade down deal could get you a quality but a little lower rated OT such as Cordy Glenn and a very good LB prospect. Why wouldn't you find such a trade-down transaction very appealing?

I understand your question. In many, many sets of circumstances, I would be happy to see the Bills trade down. The only point I am trying to make is that due to the new CBA, earlier picks will see their value increase, becaus there is less financial risk for owners/GMs. What would have been a fair deal 3 years ago (and the draft value chart) might not be relevant any more.

We shall see.

[JohnC]

I understand your question. In many, many sets of circumstances, I would be happy to see the Bills trade down. The only point I am trying to make is that due to the new CBA, earlier picks will see their value increase, becaus there is less financial risk for owners/GMs. What would have been a fair deal 3 years ago (and the draft value chart) might not be relevant any more.

We shall see.

 

My take on the new CBA with respect to trade down/up is that it should increase the incentive for lower teams willing to move up and pursue their once exorbitant priced higher pick, now more reasonably priced. If a lower drafting team wanted a qb such as Tannyhill it would make more sense from a cap hit standpoint under this new CBA draft system. The team trading down might not get the premium player it was in position to take but with the deal they could still get more good players to bolster their roster.

 

Let's look at the OT prospects in this draft. Is there much distinguishable differences among Rieff, Martin, Glenn and Adams? If there is a distinction between them it can be made up by adding another quality prospect with the added pick or picks.

 

I never subscribed to the old value chart mentality. Who cares what the chart says? If you can improve your team more by making a trade-down transaction by acquiring more picks then why not do it? Teams that have a dearth of talent should be very inclined to make deals that add more picks.

 

I understand your point; I'm not saying you are wrong. My point is simply that sometimes being a little creative with the draft and maneuvering around can accelerate the enhancement of the talent base. Buddy is Buddy. He is a conservative fellow who has a tight comfort zone. Sometimes it works out well for you and sometimes it limits what you are trying to accomplish.

Edited April 3, 2012 by JohnC

[tennesseeboy]

I'd be willing to bet that most of those complaining what a problem kid Michael Floyd is/was because of his DUI have driven drunk just as much or more than he has, they just were lucky enough not to be caught.

 

I'm not saying DUI is not a problem, driving drunk is a smart thing, or that he doesn't have a drinking problem, although all indications are that he has cleaned himself up, The self-righteousness of most people about DUIs when they often do it themselves and don't think of themselves as being a problem or that they should be not considered for a job because of it is pretty laughable.

Actually I did NOT say he shouldn't be considered for the job. I'd probably be happy to take him in round 2 or round 3. His criminal record and alocohol issues are what I said they were...issues. They would take him out of the running for a number 10 spot, that and the fact that I don't think he's a number 10 talent and that I think we have bigger needs and there is better talent available for a position of critical need. I would take Rieff for sure and maybe Martin over Floyd.

[PDaDdy]

Can he block? Because you don't have a LT.

 

Actually Floyd is an excellent blocker. LOL.

 

Don't fret. Everyone's favorite Demetrius "because I'm not Jason Peters" Bell will be back in the fold. The longer he is out there and nobody signs him the more likely it is he will realize that Buffalo is probably the best place for him.

 

Now, that being said it also means he isn't that good and nobody else thinks he is that good which I have been saying all along. People blinded by hate can't see that Bell is really nothing special and the rest of the league is confirming it for us.

 

Sadly we probably do still need a LT even if we do get Bell back

[Astrobot]

Actually Floyd is an excellent blocker. LOL.

 

Don't fret. Everyone's favorite Demetrius "because I'm not Jason Peters" Bell will be back in the fold. The longer he is out there and nobody signs him the more likely it is he will realize that Buffalo is probably the best place for him.

 

Now, that being said it also means he isn't that good and nobody else thinks he is that good which I have been saying all along. People blinded by hate can't see that Bell is really nothing special and the rest of the league is confirming it for us.

 

Sadly we probably do still need a LT even if we do get Bell back

Perhaps Bell will return and complete a season without injury (for the 2nd time in 5 years). Perhaps this miracle will be aided by the lure of a fat contract down the road.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

My take on the new CBA with respect to trade down/up is that it should increase the incentive for lower teams willing to move up and pursue their once exorbitant priced higher pick, now more reasonably priced. If a lower drafting team wanted a qb such as Tannyhill it would make more sense from a cap hit standpoint under this new CBA draft system. The team trading down might not get the premium player it was in position to take but with the deal they could still get more good players to bolster their roster.

 

Let's look at the OT prospects in this draft. Is there much distinguishable differences among Rieff, Martin, Glenn and Adams? If there is a distinction between them it can be made up by adding another quality prospect with the added pick or picks.

 

I never subscribed to the old value chart mentality. Who cares what the chart says? If you can improve your team more by making a trade-down transaction by acquiring more picks then why not do it? Teams that have a dearth of talent should be very inclined to make deals that add more picks.

Price…

 

Yes, the salaries for Top 10 rookies has gone way down.

 

But as a result, the price of trading up has gone up… the price in terms of draft picks is now higher for teams wishing to move up… at least based on the Julio Jones trade last year and the RGIII trade this year.

 

I think overall that the reduction in the top rookie contracts might not have much effect on trading in the first round. JMO.

 

 

[JohnC]

Price…

 

Yes, the salaries for Top 10 rookies has gone way down.

 

But as a result, the price of trading up has gone up… the price in terms of draft picks is now higher for teams wishing to move up… at least based on the Julio Jones trade last year and the RGIII trade this year.

 

I think overall that the reduction in the top rookie contracts might not have much effect on trading in the first round. JMO.

 

The Julio Junes trade was made under the old CBA system and was very costly in high draft picks for Atlanta. Atlanta felt that they were a big play receiver away from being a SB contender, so they paid a heavy price to acquire the player they identified who would make a major impact for them.

 

The RGIII future acquistition is a unique circumstance in which a team was willing to mortgage the future in order to acquire a very highly rated qb prospect. RGIII, as with Luck, is considered a top qb prospect who comes along once every few years. In addition, the Skins were willing to give up a boatload of picks believing they could make up for the loss of draft picks by using their large cap space for free agent pickups. Much to their surprise the league penalized them for the way they handled the cap during the strike period.

 

As you smartly noted odds are that the new CBA salary structure won't have as much influence on how teams respond in making draft trades as much as teams' coveting particular players. It will be interesting to see how things play out.

Edited April 4, 2012 by JohnC

[SelmonSmith6378]

Wow...Bills fans really want to pass on ANOTHER offensive lineman? I'm confused...

[San Jose Bills Fan]

The Julio Junes trade was made under the old CBA system and was very costly in high draft picks for Atlanta. Atlanta felt that they were a big play receiver away from being a SB contender, so they paid a heavy price to acquire the player they identified who would make a major impact for them.

I guess we're in a bit of a grey area here as the lockout started prior to the draft, so there was no CBA at the time of Jones being drafted.

 

But many people anticipated a rookie pay scale as part of the new CBA.

 

Regardless it'll be years before we truly figure out the effects of the rookie pay scale on trades in the first round.

 

There's no sample size to speak of right now.

 

 

 

Wow...Bills fans really want to pass on ANOTHER offensive lineman? I'm confused...

Maybe they don't like the lineman choice they were given?

[Kelly the Dog]

The Julio Junes trade was made under the old CBA system and was very costly in high draft picks for Atlanta. Atlanta felt that they were a big play receiver away from being a SB contender, so they paid a heavy price to acquire the player they identified who would make a major impact for them.

 

The RGIII future acquistition is a unique circumstance in which a team was willing to mortgage the future in order to acquire a very highly rated qb prospect. RGIII, as with Luck, is considered a top qb prospect who comes along once every few years. In addition, the Skins were willing to give up a boatload of picks believing they could make up for the loss of draft picks by using their large cap space for free agent pickups. Much to their surprise the league penalized them for the way they handled the cap during the strike period.

 

As you smartly noted odds are that the new CBA salary structure won't have as much influence on how teams respond in making draft trades as much as teams' coveting particular players. It will be interesting to see how things play out.

I agree with basically everything you said here but what do you mean about the old CBA structure? Jones was a rookie last year and made half the money that a player drafted in his position would have the year before because of the new rookie rules, and the teams knew it..

[Dennis in NC]

Any choice but Floyd would be alright with me. But I very much doubt they will have those options when it's their turn to pick.

Randy, as a coach (or former coach?), what do you see in Floyd that you really dislike?

 

I mean the alcohol issues may be a concern. Do you think he cleaned up his act in senior year just to improve draft stock (i.e., less than sincere intent)?

 

Floyd seems like a game changer kind of guy to me, but I'm just trying to sort all these guys out.

[tennesseeboy]

Yeah, pretty much this all the way.

I agree. If Blackmon or Kalil somehow slipped to 10 they would be an obvious choice. While we're at it why don't we pretend Luck and RG will slip to 10?

[Bill from NYC]

Jones was a rookie last year and made half the money that a player drafted in his position would have the year before because of the new rookie rules, and the teams knew it..

 

I too was under this impression. And what SJB posted was my exact point. And he is right, the body of work to compare it to does not yet exist, but there is zero reason for me to believe that the cost of trading up will not increase. It may already be steeper.

 

In terms of a guess, it will probably be much higher with the new CBA to trade up for the very early picks, because the salary drop off from early first round to late first round was always very steep. Now, a team isn't risking as much (in terms of cash) if they bomb out on a Jermarcus Russell. But again, my guess is that a #10 would fall into the equation of a pick with increased value under the new CBA.

[Turbosrrgood]

I say Helloooo Philly......thinking one of the above will fall to #15...

 

Reasoning:

 

Blackmon and Floyd are not field stretchers and Hill or Randle are probably a better fit for what we need. You trade back into the lower first round with 41 and our first fourth and first fifth to get Hill or Randle and then use the second round pick to get Cousins. You end up with a good T at 15; a stretch the field receiver and a QB to groom.

 

 

I would take Blackmon or Floyd in a heartbeat over Hill or Randle. Have you watched these guys play? Sure Hill has the combine numbers and highlight reels that Al Davis used to love, but how has that worked out for him? Blackmon absolutely dominated every time he was on the field. People fall in love with combine numbers (meaningless), watch the tape. Blackmon stretched the field just fine his entire career.

 

Meanwhile Hill (who has potential, but is as risky as any WR in the draft), basically ONLY ran deep routes. Blackmon has almost as many TD's as Hill has catches. Hill reminds me of Devin Thomas a few years back, one year wonder speed demon and 1st ranked WR in that draft, now struggling to stay in the league as a kick returner. Take the guy who has proven he is a star.

 

BTW, Stevie is plenty fast and can stretch the field just fine as well. But when you only have 1 legitimate WR he will almost always be doubled down field. Fitz is also far more accurate with short to intermediate passes. I'm all for a guy that is solid in all areas of the field, as opposed to just a deep threat.

Edited April 4, 2012 by Turbosrrgood

[JohnC]

I agree with basically everything you said here but what do you mean about the old CBA structure? Jones was a rookie last year and made half the money that a player drafted in his position would have the year before because of the new rookie rules, and the teams knew it..

 

On which CBA salary structure he was covered by I was wrong. I thought it was the original CBA, it wasn't. He was covered by the more recent CBA cheaper draft structure.

 

I still believe that there is now more incentive for lower ranked teams to give up draft picks to move up because they can pursue their coveted players who will take up less cap space.

 

Ultimately, odds are that the major incentive to move up for a particular player is not the salary price so much as coveting a particular player. The Skins coveted RGIII. They had the conviction that he was going to be a superlative franchise qb for them for the next decade or so. They were more than willing to pay the steep price to get the deal with the Rams done.

 

The bottom line is as San Jose suggested; the new CBA will have little influence as to the frequency of teams trading up or down. It is more likely to come down to which players are targeted and the willingness to find a trade partner.

[Bill from NYC]

The bottom line is as San Jose suggested; the new CBA will have little influence as to the frequency of teams trading up or down. It is more likely to come down to which players are targeted and the willingness to find a trade partner.

 

I have not thought of, nor commented about this in terms of frequency. My premise was about the cost of trading up John.

[PDaDdy]

Perhaps Bell will return and complete a season without injury (for the 2nd time in 5 years). Perhaps this miracle will be aided by the lure of a fat contract down the road.

 

I'm with ya pretty much 100%. I think even if we do resign Bell we still need a reliable starting caliber LT. The only place we differ is whether we attempt to draft someone that could be that guy at #10. We have a need but I don't know if that guy is there at #10. I think there are some WRs and LB/DE prospects that are a better values than the LT prospects at #10. Maybe Buddy thinks otherwise.

Edited April 4, 2012 by PDaDdy