zonabb Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 This entire discussion and attempted analysis is fraught with problems. Trying to link QB success to round selection is like stating the day you buy your car determines its reliability. Sure, the round matters but it only matters because the round is a predicted value based on prior performance but also skewed by need and over-prioritization of the position, leading to players being draft higher than they should. This Tannenhill kid this year is a perfect example. I don’t know his track record, but he’s got flop written all over him. He’s being pushed into the top 10 not because he’s that good but because the teams typically drafting in the top 10 desperately need QBs and talk themselves into this first round argument being made here. It’s simple “The Dolphins biggest need is QB, there will be two gone by the time they pick. Who is the third best QB, that’s who they should draft.” Basically, 5th round QBs are 5th round QBs for a reason, they’re body of work isn’t that good. If it were, in the vast majority of cases they’d be selected higher because teams wouldn’t pass over the guy two or three times. Why? Because everyone constantly argues that there is a small number of franchise QBs and that most teams don’t have one. So if one was so good, these teams would draft them with their second pick. College should be the main predictor of potential success, not draft position. Other things, like measurables and brains. I’m a huge brains over brawn guy and have been on this board for years. I continually rant that drafting low Wonderlic QBs is akin to never wanting to win a Super Bowl. I think one (Bradshaw and he I think was dyslexic so he might have scored better actually) with a Wonderlic below 20 has ever won a Super Bowl. High Wonderlics don’t guarantee anything but low Wonderlics do, they guarantee you never win a Super Bowl. I’m not saying geeky noddle armed 5’10” QBs are the model, I’m saying that this fascination with physical freaks over very good athletes with brains is stupid. If you start with Parcels’ criteria and build a regression model, I’d bet the model would be pretty damn reliable if you added in Wonderlic and a few other variables. Make dependent variable “NFL wins.” I’ve always wanted to do it, never had the patience to collect the data! Someone out there has to have done something similar. It wouldn’t explain all the predictors but it would at least tell you what they’re worth draft wise and potential wise based on college and other measurable indicators. It wouldn’t account for playing time, coaching, team quality, etc. in the NFL but its intent would be as a predictor and for draft slotting. Right now, NFL teams given such a high priority to the position, players are drafted higher than they should be based on their track record (see: Losman, JP). There are a few good academic articles about the draft as an economic market filled with flaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
section122 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 slightly off topic but have you guys paid attention to the potential qb draft class next year? It's exceptional! http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/story/2012-03-23/top-college-qbs-2012-tyler-wilson-tyler-bray-mike-glennon-james-franklin-murray Matt Barkley- will more than likely be the 1st pick next year from article linked above Tyler Wilson, Arkansas, Sr.-All the measurables NFL teams crave: physical frame (6-3, 220 pounds), big arm, athleticism. Wilson plays in a pro-style system and knows (and thrives on) the NFL route tree. Tyler Bray, Tennessee, Jr-Potential—and loads of it. The biggest jump in production and grasp of the game for quarterbacks comes from the freshman to sophomore seasons. Bray was on his way to a big season last year (14 TDs, 2 INTs before thumb injury) Mike Glennon, N.C. State, Sr-Glennon’s breakthrough season (31 TDs, 12 INTs, 3,054 yards) James Franklin, Missouri, Jr-Physically, the total package. A legitimate Cam Newton-type player: a strong arm and pass-first mentality and the ability (and want) to punish defenses in the run game Aaron Murray, Georgia, Jr-A strong arm and a high quarterback IQ. He has terrific leadership skills and a rare toughness. and this doesn't include the come from nowhere prospect that will be there as well as Landry Jones. That is a lot of talent that will be available early next year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 slightly off topic but have you guys paid attention to the potential qb draft class next year? It's exceptional! http://aol.sportingnews.com/ncaa-football/story/2012-03-23/top-college-qbs-2012-tyler-wilson-tyler-bray-mike-glennon-james-franklin-murray Matt Barkley- will more than likely be the 1st pick next year from article linked above Tyler Wilson, Arkansas, Sr.-All the measurables NFL teams crave: physical frame (6-3, 220 pounds), big arm, athleticism. Wilson plays in a pro-style system and knows (and thrives on) the NFL route tree. Tyler Bray, Tennessee, Jr-Potential—and loads of it. The biggest jump in production and grasp of the game for quarterbacks comes from the freshman to sophomore seasons. Bray was on his way to a big season last year (14 TDs, 2 INTs before thumb injury) Mike Glennon, N.C. State, Sr-Glennon’s breakthrough season (31 TDs, 12 INTs, 3,054 yards) James Franklin, Missouri, Jr-Physically, the total package. A legitimate Cam Newton-type player: a strong arm and pass-first mentality and the ability (and want) to punish defenses in the run game Aaron Murray, Georgia, Jr-A strong arm and a high quarterback IQ. He has terrific leadership skills and a rare toughness. and this doesn't include the come from nowhere prospect that will be there as well as Landry Jones. That is a lot of talent that will be available early next year! No offense 122, but this post is made every year regarding "next year's QB class". In 2009 it was "next year will have Bradford, McCoy, Clausen, etc". In 2010 it was "Next year will have Locker, Luck, etc". In 2011 it was "Next year will have Luck, Barkley, Landry, etc". Now we're talking about Barkley, Landry, maybe a few more. What will happen is, a couple will stay in school and a couple more will drop by the end of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Are you trying to say Ralph is cheap? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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