Kellen Moore, Boise State

[Mr. WEO]

I'm so sick of the Tom Brady argument. Lets take a look at all the NFL QBs who have been drafted in the 4th or 5th round or lower and then determine whether you want to bet on a 6th rounder becoming your franchise QB. It's a 100 to 1 shot at best and is only not 1000 to 1 because there have not been 1000 QBs drafted that low. Brady is an aberration, like Kurt Warner and Johnny Unitas before him, who were also more than 100 to 1 shots. Yes, it happens once every few decades for one out of 32 teams. The chances of it happening again, while within the realm of possibility, is extremely, extremely low.

 

Is this a new type of statical analysis--where the denominator is whatever you feel it should be?

 

Anyway, no one "bets" on a 6th rounder, because the wager is almost nothing. The real bet is on the first rounder, where the chance of becoming a bust or a guy who bounces around the league (i.e. anything other than a franchise QB) is about 2/3.

[Kelly the Dog]

Is this a new type of statical analysis--where the denominator is whatever you feel it should be?

 

Anyway, no one "bets" on a 6th rounder, because the wager is almost nothing. The real bet is on the first rounder, where the chance of becoming a bust or a guy who bounces around the league (i.e. anything other than a franchise QB) is about 2/3.

It's a bet because the poster or fan is saying I like this guy, it doesn't matter that he is a 6th rounder, 6th rounders become franchise QBs, too, like Tom Brady. Don't discount 6th rounders. The fan is thinking this is where we are going to get our franchise QB. Don't bother wasting a #1 pick on a QB we can get our franchise guy in the 6th. So yes, it is a bet. And it's a criminally horrible bet.

[DrDawkinstein]

It's a bet because the poster or fan is saying I like this guy, it doesn't matter that he is a 6th rounder, 6th rounders become franchise QBs, too, like Tom Brady. Don't discount 6th rounders. The fan is thinking this is where we are going to get our franchise QB. Don't bother wasting a #1 pick on a QB we can get our franchise guy in the 6th. So yes, it is a bet. And it's a criminally horrible bet.

 

Tom Brady was a 6th round pick, therefore plenty of HoF QBs can be found in the 6th.

 

The Miami Dolphins turned their franchise around in 1 year, so we should too. Nevermind how that 1 year turn around worked out in the long run...

[Maddog69]

There is something about this kid that I love. His passion for the game is impressive.

I think he will be successful in the NFL. If he isn't, it won't be for lack of effort. I'd be happy to have him on our team.

[NewEra]

1332971715[/url]' post='2424644']

We weren't debating whether those drafted after round 1 could be "stars", but "starting NFL QBs", verbatum. Sure, every team is waiting around for a "star QB", yet they still play the games until one falls to them and they play those games with the best QB on their roster.

 

Potential means, by definition, we don't know how good he can get, but he seems promising. We've seen the best of Thigpen (or the Chiefs fans did, anyway). Even re-united with Chan (who refused to sub him in for a damaged Fitz --even during a 7 game slide), the old "magic" between the 2 of them is gone. So yes, Moore has "actual potential", whereas Thigpen hit the ceiling well before he hit Buffalo.

 

To be a "starting qb" in the nfl is based on a qbs competition. Kelly Holcomb was a "starting qb". BJ Hobart, Trent Edwards, Jp losman, Todd Collins, Tim rattay, Alex van pelt.... They were all starting qbs in the nfl. Who cares if kellen Moore can be a "starting qb" if our other qbs are thigpen and brad smith? I'm not quite sure why anyone would even get in a debate about if someone can become a "starting qb". I could be a starting qb if my competition was weak enough. Can I be adequate is the question.

 

Thigpen hit his ceiling in his rookie year??? He came in late to a shortened training camp and got minimal snaps. The snaps he was taking, he was throwing to.....yeah, scrubs. Now, I'm not saying I think thigpen is a great qb by any means, but the fact that in his rookie season, he was able to pick up chans system and put up big numbers tells me he has potential. Just because he didn't do anything for us last year, in limited snaps doesn't say his ceiling was his rookie year. It doesn't say anything. But somehow, you KNOW how good thigpen can and can't be. How bout nooooooooo..................Scott.

[C.Biscuit97]

There is something about this kid that I love. His passion for the game is impressive.

I think he will be successful in the NFL. If he isn't, it won't be for lack of effort. I'd be happy to have him on our team.

 

I really liek the kid too and I'm not trying to bet against him. But IMO, his upside is about Fitz at most. You can have all the heart in the world, but you still need the skills.

[NewEra]

1332990280[/url]' post='2424879']

He NEVER concedes so much as a SINGLE POINT.

 

That's why I don't bother with him anymore.

 

In his own mind, he's completely infallible.

 

He's right, we're wrong. Always.

[NewEra]

1333040218[/url]' post='2425211']

I'm so sick of the Tom Brady argument. Lets take a look at all the NFL QBs who have been drafted in the 4th or 5th round or lower and then determine whether you want to bet on a 6th rounder becoming your franchise QB. It's a 100 to 1 shot at best and is only not 1000 to 1 because there have not been 1000 QBs drafted that low. Brady is an aberration, like Kurt Warner and Johnny Unitas before him, who were also more than 100 to 1 shots. Yes, it happens once every few decades for one out of 32 teams. The chances of it happening again, while within the realm of possibility, is extremely, extremely low.

 

Seriously, wake up people. Stop with all these bs comparisons. We're talking about 1 in a million chances. Absolutes are my pet peeve, but il go on record in saying Kellen Moore will never develop into anything more than a backup qb. If he starts, it'll be because his team doesn't have anyone competent to compete with him. Maybe that makes him a "starting qb" in some people's eyes. Kelly Holcomb was a "starting qb"......but he really wasn't.

[Mr. WEO]

It's a bet because the poster or fan is saying I like this guy, it doesn't matter that he is a 6th rounder, 6th rounders become franchise QBs, too, like Tom Brady. Don't discount 6th rounders. The fan is thinking this is where we are going to get our franchise QB. Don't bother wasting a #1 pick on a QB we can get our franchise guy in the 6th. So yes, it is a bet. And it's a criminally horrible bet.

 

No, it's really not, because the discussion isn't whether the franchise QB is in the 6th round. The point made by someone else was that drafting a QB outside of 1st round is a waste of time. I've said that this is not true. It is wise to spend a mid to late round pick on a good QB prospect if you currently have your starter ("franchise") if you will under contract. Smart teams do this. If no one drafted QBs outside of the first round, what would NFL rosters look like?

 

Obviously most franchise QBs are found in the first round--no one here has argued against this clear fact. However the overwhelming majority of 1st round QB picks are wasted as only 1/3 of them yield that type of QB.

 

To be a "starting qb" in the nfl is based on a qbs competition. Kelly Holcomb was a "starting qb". BJ Hobart, Trent Edwards, Jp losman, Todd Collins, Tim rattay, Alex van pelt.... They were all starting qbs in the nfl. Who cares if kellen Moore can be a "starting qb" if our other qbs are thigpen and brad smith? I'm not quite sure why anyone would even get in a debate about if someone can become a "starting qb". I could be a starting qb if my competition was weak enough. Can I be adequate is the question.

 

Thigpen hit his ceiling in his rookie year??? He came in late to a shortened training camp and got minimal snaps. The snaps he was taking, he was throwing to.....yeah, scrubs. Now, I'm not saying I think thigpen is a great qb by any means, but the fact that in his rookie season, he was able to pick up chans system and put up big numbers tells me he has potential. Just because he didn't do anything for us last year, in limited snaps doesn't say his ceiling was his rookie year. It doesn't say anything. But somehow, you KNOW how good thigpen can and can't be. How bout nooooooooo..................Scott.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Seriously, wake up people. Stop with all these bs comparisons. We're talking about 1 in a million chances. Absolutes are my pet peeve, but il go on record in saying Kellen Moore will never develop into anything more than a backup qb. If he starts, it'll be because his team doesn't have anyone competent to compete with him. Maybe that makes him a "starting qb" in some people's eyes. Kelly Holcomb was a "starting qb"......but he really wasn't.

 

 

I know what I've seen regarding Thigpen. He seems to have caught lightning in a bottle in KC. In Buffalo, his "Svengailey" didn't want to put him as starter even after Fitz was injured and even after the Bills were in a 7 game loss streak and were playing meaningless games in December. Even you said that Moore becoming a starter for the Bills ahead of the likes of Thigpen and Smith was no great achievement.

[Maddog69]

I really liek the kid too and I'm not trying to bet against him. But IMO, his upside is about Fitz at most. You can have all the heart in the world, but you still need the skills.

 

Very true. I think, at worst, he is going to be Frank Reich for somebody. I would not spend a high pick on him but if we got in in Rd4 or lower, I'd be happy.

[JPS]

I don't what round we should take him in, but I think the dude can flat out play. He can make ALL the throws. He's one inch shorter than the best QB in the NFL (IMHO) Drew Brees. Can 1 inch really make that big of a difference? And he's extremely accurate. I'd love to see us get him in the draft somewhere.

 

I think he may surprise some of you naysayers.

 

I could not agree more. He is the antithesis of Rob Johnson. No size or big gun, but this guy gets the QB position. I liked watching him play.

[NewEra]

1333053758[/url]' post='2425490']

No, it's really not, because the discussion isn't whether the franchise QB is in the 6th round. The point made by someone else was that drafting a QB outside of 1st round is a waste of time. I've said that this is not true. It is wise to spend a mid to late round pick on a good QB prospect if you currently have your starter ("franchise") if you will under contract. Smart teams do this. If no one drafted QBs outside of the first round, what would NFL rosters look like?

 

Obviously most franchise QBs are found in the first round--no one here has argued against this clear fact. However the overwhelming majority of 1st round QB picks are wasted as only 1/3 of them yield that type of QB.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I know what I've seen regarding Thigpen. He seems to have caught lightning in a bottle in KC. In Buffalo, his "Svengailey" didn't want to put him as starter even after Fitz was injured and even after the Bills were in a 7 game loss streak and were playing meaningless games in December. Even you said that Moore becoming a starter for the Bills ahead of the likes of Thigpen and Smith was no great achievement.

 

I'll take a 33% chance on landing "that type of qb" everyday of the week. IF the current qb isn't "that type of QB". What are the chances that ANY player in the 1st rd will be that type of player for their position? I have no idea but I but it's not higher than 50%. Its the most important position, if you don't have a stud, get a stud. Qbs in the 2nd-7th have less than little chance to succeed. A cb, lb, OL etc have a MUCH greater chance to succeed.

 

Yes, Moore becoming the backup over thigpen and smith is no great achievement. I'm not saying thigpen is good. The point I was trying to make is, if Kellen Moore has potential, than Thigpen has potential too. Moore produced in a short passing game, behind a great OL and played vs lower tier college programs. While thigpen hasnt had success recently, he's shown he can produce on an NFL level. Which, IMO, translates to potential.

 

While I agree that drafting a qb in rds 2-7 isnt always a bad idea, I think it's a wasted pick 90%+ of the time. There have been a couple qbs over the years I wanted to take a chance on late (Schaub, drew Stanton and jimmy claussen).You see something in Moore that you like. I see a little kid running around with the big boys. This isn't the mountain west, it's the nfl. You're entitled to your opinion just like everyone else is, there is no right or wrong at this stage.

[JPS]

Moore reminds me of a less athletic Pat White. FWIW

That is a ridiculous comparison. There is nothing of Kellen Moore that reminds me of Pat White. Wait... he plays QB.

[NewEra]

1333056057[/url]' post='2425529']

That is a ridiculous comparison. There is nothing of Kellen Moore that reminds me of Pat White. Wait... he plays QB.

 

I'm not sure what the op mean by his comparison, but I see it as this: kellen Moore is as good of a qb as pat white without his athletic ability. Meaning he sucks. Jmo

[RuntheDamnBall]

Seriously, wake up people. Stop with all these bs comparisons. We're talking about 1 in a million chances. Absolutes are my pet peeve, but il go on record in saying Kellen Moore will never develop into anything more than a backup qb. If he starts, it'll be because his team doesn't have anyone competent to compete with him. Maybe that makes him a "starting qb" in some people's eyes. Kelly Holcomb was a "starting qb"......but he really wasn't.

Now it's one in a million? It used to be one in a thousand? How many NFL QBs are there, divided by how many entrants declared for the draft at QB? Get a grip; the chances are as good as any other NFLer. They aren't great for anyone in the game. The chances are that Andrew Luck will never win a Super Bowl. The chances are he won't win many playoff games. This doesn't mean he's not the right pick at his time.

 

I think the worse bet is blowing an entire day of picks to move up and secure one guy. Even if he is literally Jesus, he can get injured on a football field. Yet that, my friends, is the only way that the Bills are getting a top-tier QB in the draft anytime soon. Unless I'm wrong and they are terrible, or the market for prototypical NFL QBs somehow becomes a buyer's one, it's going to be hard to find one.

 

As WEO said, a sixth round pick is not a pick that locks you in to something for the future. It's a pick that is a genuine crap-shoot, and it might line up that the situation is just right for this kind of player. I don't get why anyone sees a QB in that spot any differently than they see a Dylan MacFarland or a Stevie Johnson. You see something you like, you see a lot of reasons the guy fell to the late rounds, and you are not on the hook for much. I sure as **** would rather have Kellen Moore than the next Arthur Moats, as fun as the few moments he's given us were. I fail to see why it's a problem to like the guy as a late-round flier.

[Kelly the Dog]

As WEO said, a sixth round pick is not a pick that locks you in to something for the future. It's a pick that is a genuine crap-shoot, and it might line up that the situation is just right for this kind of player. I don't get why anyone sees a QB in that spot any differently than they see a Dylan MacFarland or a Stevie Johnson. You see something you like, you see a lot of reasons the guy fell to the late rounds, and you are not on the hook for much. I sure as **** would rather have Kellen Moore than the next Arthur Moats, as fun as the few moments he's given us were. I fail to see why it's a problem to like the guy as a late-round flier.

1] I don't know the stats, but I would bet that good to great QBs are far less likely to be found in the 6th - 7th round than any other position. And it's pretty easy to see why.

2] QBs are unique in so far as there is no such thing really as role player QBs. You're either good enough to be a playoff/Super Bowl QB or not good enough. Some, obviously, are arguable to fans, like, say, Fitzpatrick. But those guys aren't really arguable to their teams, as Chan and Nix would not be comfortable with Fitz at all, nor give him that contract, unless they thought he could win a Super Bowl. So wasting a 6th round pick on a QB to me, is a worse bet than taking almost any other position because he has extremely little chance to excel, and if he cannot excel, there is not much use to him. If you want to win.

 

Granted, you don't want to just avoid taking QBs not in the first round. BUT... what I was talking about earlier, and what it seems most posters are talking about when they mention the Brady example, is not really finding a decent back-up, they are saying you can get your franchise QB there, and that is a 100 to 1 shot at best. Which is a crappy bet.

Edited March 30, 2012 by Kelly the Dog

[NoSaint]

...if available in round 3, I think he's another Brees. Understand he's not prototypical, but 4 year starter, ton of wins, bad weather experience, all the same knocks as Brees coming out....but see how that worked out.

Drew was a first round prospect. Do you think it's just the fraction of an inch seperating them? Drew was known for above average zip in the intermediate but an occasionally erratic deep ball (better arm), drew was more athletic/mobile, and drew weighed 15 or so lbs more (better frame)

[mob16151]

What in his game reminds you of White? White was a horrible passer and a runner first second and third. I see no comparison of the 2 at all. The McCoy comparison maybe but def not Pat White.

 

Skinny build, suspect arm strength, not as fast or elusive, as White. Moore is the more accurate passer,but White wasn't to bad himself. All in all I don't like Moores chances.

 

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/12485/type/college/pat-white

 

http://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/kellen-moore-1.html

[Kelly the Dog]

Drew was a first round prospect. Do you think it's just the fraction of an inch seperating them? Drew was known for above average zip in the intermediate but an occasionally erratic deep ball (better arm), drew was more athletic/mobile, and drew weighed 15 or so lbs more (better frame)

Drew Brees was also the first pick of the second round in a 31 team league. The 32st pick. That's a first round pick today.

[CardinalScotts]

He's another Ty Detmer, might hang on in the NFL but is a back up at best