Orton's Arm Posted March 27, 2012 Posted March 27, 2012 (edited) The Bills have several options at 10th overall: QB. The Bills need a franchise QB more than anything. But my impression is that after the first two QBs are off the board, there won't be anyone left worthy of 10th overall. LT. Kalil will be off the board before 10th overall, and the second-best LT probably isn't worth 10th overall. Interior OL. 10th overall is too early for an interior offensive lineman. Even highly rated players like Mangold were taken in the lower part of the first round. (One pick after the Bills took McCargo.) RT. 10th overall is also a little early for RT, and besides, the Bills have Hairston WR. A possibility at 10th overall. DL. No longer a position of need LB. 10th overall is too early for a LB unless he's an elite pass rusher. Wannestedt's defense doesn't call for LBs to blitz very often, and it's not like any LB is going to be able to cover Gronkowski one-on-one. If a LB isn't blitzing, and isn't covering TEs one-on-one, then how is he supposed to contribute enough to pass defense to justify 10th overall? Safety. 10th overall is early for a safety. In any case, the Bills have good safeties already in the form of Wilson and Byrd CB. A possibility at 10th overall. A shutdown CB could cover the other team's best WR one-on-one. The longer the other team's players stay covered, the more effective the Bills' pass rush will become. But if the Bills take a CB here, and if he lives up to expectations, they have to keep him in Buffalo his whole career. None of this first-contract-and-out garbage! To make a long story short, the Bills have four strong possibilities for their draft choice: 1) Stay put and take a CB 2) Stay put and take a WR 3) Trade up for Kalil 4) Trade down Depending on their evaluations of individual players, 3) might well be their best option. You could do a lot worse than coming away with a close-to-elite player at a premium position like LT! A player like Kalil could be a building block for many years to come. The downside is that acquiring him would involve trading away the second or third round picks; and possibly both. I know there are those who will say the Bills need to add large numbers of decent players more than they need to add one elite player. I disagree. Offense: QB. Fitz is fine for now, though a franchise QB should be added as soon as possible OL. Other than LT, the OL is in pretty good shape. WR. The Bills have an infinite number of WRs already. Adding an elite player could help. But adding numbers for the sake of it is not necessary. TE. Chandler RB. Nothing needed here. Defense: DL: Fine. Ridiculously so, in fact. LB: They may want to add a player here. S: No need here. CB: A #1 CB is needed. If the Bills added a good-to-elite LT, a good-to-elite CB, and a competent LB, they'd have eliminated their major holes. With Wannestedt's defense you typically would take your LBs later in the draft. (They're normally college safeties who get turned into fast NFL LBs.) The Bills will have plenty of later round picks with which to take the kind of LBs Wannestedt likes. Trading up for Kalil would solve the LT problem in a big way! That leaves just a #1 CB, which I admit you're probably not going to get later in the draft. They could probably take a CB later in the draft as a stopgap measure, knowing they'll have to address the position again in a year or two. My concern is that if they attempt to get both a shutdown CB and a franchise LT in this draft, they may end up with decent-but-not great players at both positions. Better to add one elite player a year for the next three years. This year's elite player would be a LT. The next two years' elite players would be a QB and a CB; with a strong preference for a QB over any other position! Edited March 27, 2012 by Edwards' Arm
It's in My Blood Posted March 27, 2012 Posted March 27, 2012 I would definitely applaud a move up for Kalil, and only Kalil.
Maddog69 Posted March 27, 2012 Posted March 27, 2012 [*]OL. Other than LT, the OL is in pretty good shape. This made me LOL. Other than the most important position on the line, we are all set.
KevinRome Posted March 27, 2012 Posted March 27, 2012 (edited) I general I'm not a fan of selling the farm to move up, however you have good reasoning to justify it. If Kalil is a 10-years starter, then it's justified. Our evaluation of players is completely dependent on the talking heads, so I can't argue how good a player will or will not be. What do you think about the possibility that the OTs other than Kalil are good enough for the 10th pick? Edited March 27, 2012 by KevinRome
Bud Adams Posted March 27, 2012 Posted March 27, 2012 I would definitely applaud a move up for Kalil, and only Kalil. This, and only this. Kalil, to me, is the safest pick in the draft. BA
st pete gogolak Posted March 27, 2012 Posted March 27, 2012 What if the Dolphins are stupid enough to offer the Vikings an attractive package to move up to the three hole to pick Tannehill? The one thing the Browns don't need is a left tackle. Would they trade out of the four hole and slide to 10? What would it take to make that move? A second? I'd do that move for Kalil. Personally, I think the Vikings sit tight and take Kalil number 3.
Maddog69 Posted March 27, 2012 Posted March 27, 2012 This, and only this. Kalil, to me, is the safest pick in the draft. BA based on what? Have you scouted any of these players? Have you interviewed any of them? There is a huge chance that some kid drafted in the lower rounds or a UDFA will have a better career than any of these kids at the top of the draft.
Bud Adams Posted March 27, 2012 Posted March 27, 2012 What do you think about the possibility that the OTs other than Kalil are good enough for the 10th pick? I think there's a steep drop-off after Kalil. I think Reiff is overhyped, and not worthy of a top-10 pick. Problem is, neither are a lot of folks "around" once you get past six or seven. I hate our draft position.
cage Posted March 27, 2012 Posted March 27, 2012 (edited) I would definitely applaud a move up for Kalil, and only Kalil. I generally like the other three options the poster presents than trading up. Giving the cost of the move to #2 by the Redskins, I don't think it would be possible to get up to #3 without giving up too much... but its a valid option as argued If Kalil last beyond #3 (due to trade-up or otherwise), then this may start to make more sense Edited March 27, 2012 by cage
Bud Adams Posted March 27, 2012 Posted March 27, 2012 (edited) based on what? Have you scouted any of these players? Have you interviewed any of them? There is a huge chance that some kid drafted in the lower rounds or a UDFA will have a better career than any of these kids at the top of the draft. Based on the fact that I'm a USC alum/die-hard fan and have watched nearly every game in which he's played dominated. Next? Edit: He's the only USC player I'd want as a Bill from this year's class, for the record. Edited March 27, 2012 by Bud Adams
ndirish1978 Posted March 27, 2012 Posted March 27, 2012 Wait... You can trade up?!! Why has no one on this board called for us to do that?! Or to trade for Tebow?! Or to sign over the hill free agents with name recognition?!
bowery4 Posted March 27, 2012 Posted March 27, 2012 I like it, for a second rd. pick but I would offer next year compensation for anymore than that (maybe next years 2nd??, they have point charts for these trades. I have no idea how much a #3 pick is worth, but I imagine too much). I like it but just don't see them pulling that trigger, it is an expensive and risky option. What (I think) they will do is draft a highly rated one and sit at ten. I think there are 3, the Georgia guy (sorry, the name is escaping me at the moment), Martin, and maybe Reiff that would be worthy of consideration. I can see them doing that and drafting one or even 2 later too (the new comp pick??). I mean why not? I want them to do whatever they do whether or not we have Bell back (but I really think we won't see him in the blue red and white again), plan like he doesn't exist IMO. I like him but it is the year to move on. All that said, as of now, personally although both would be reaches at 10, my 2 favorite players in the draft are Hightower and Coby Fleener. I know that both of those would be slightly out there as #10s but I would like the idea of the Bills moving up from the 41 pick to get either of them later in the 1st. This is assuming they take a LT at 10. Hightower is an ILB choice which doesn't bother me as he is going to be all over the field no matter where he plays (and he is multi-positional and played behind Darius before). I like him best of any LBers this year, IMO he can easily fit at OLB (I know others don't agree with that opinion). Fleener could be looked at as a very solid #2 WR, except he is a TE, which in a way could be even better (would we even need a #2 wr?). 2 TE spread sets could work very well for this team (I think Belicheat is on to something there but I also see what NE* does as a simple variation of the K-gun). With our backs and a receiving threat at TE our O could be truly explosive. I like them both and any good coach schemes around his players. They would both be playmakers on our team.
Dorkington Posted March 27, 2012 Posted March 27, 2012 Stay put, take best available player. Hope it's a WR or LT.
jjmac Posted March 27, 2012 Posted March 27, 2012 I have to agree with Dorkington, unless we trade down to get more draft picks. Despite our signings of Williams and Anderson, designed to fix the biggest weakness on the team, Buddy's preferred MO is to build throught the draft. How are we going to do just that if we trade away picks?
BillsCelticsAngelsBama Posted March 27, 2012 Posted March 27, 2012 (edited) Wait... You can trade up?!! Why has no one on this board called for us to do that?! Or to trade for Tebow?! Or to sign over the hill free agents with name recognition?! Go back and pray to your Michael Floyd posters Edited March 27, 2012 by MOVALLEYRANDY
Captain Hindsight Posted March 27, 2012 Posted March 27, 2012 The OP has a great point. We all know there are only 5 good players in any draft.If your not picking in the top 5, there isn't really a point. Its actually been a brilliant strategy by the Bills the last few to be picking just close enough to the top 5 that we have a chance to trade up for a player. The rounds 2-7 are merely a way for the NFL to give the allusion that players can be good after the top 5 and to give "competitive balance" a chance to succeed.
San Jose Bills Fan Posted March 27, 2012 Posted March 27, 2012 Based on the fact that I'm a USC alum/die-hard fan and have watched nearly every game in which he's played dominated. Next? Edit: He's the only USC player I'd want as a Bill from this year's class, for the record. Out of curiosity, how do you like Nick Perry? Not necessarily for the Bills but just as a player.
BillsCelticsAngelsBama Posted March 27, 2012 Posted March 27, 2012 The OP has a great point. We all know there are only 5 good players in any draft.If your not picking in the top 5, there isn't really a point. Its actually been a brilliant strategy by the Bills the last few to be picking just close enough to the top 5 that we have a chance to trade up for a player. The rounds 2-7 are merely a way for the NFL to give the allusion that players can be good after the top 5 and to give "competitive balance" a chance to succeed. Neither witty nor funny .... as usual.
sllib olaffub Posted March 27, 2012 Posted March 27, 2012 I'd say the price would be the kicker here on whether or not the move up would be worth it. If you're talking Redskins type forfeiture of picks (something like 3 first rounders?), then NO WAY! Truth is, the Bills need a good LT to solidify that line; and a young one would be great, because then the line could stay and grow together for a number of years. I'd say in that scenario we are looking at ALL THE PIECES in place, let's make a run type ready. However, a good LT can be found in other areas than just the obvious. This is where you must weigh the pros and cons. If trading up to get a pro-bowl caliber LT means giving up on the picks necessary to go get a franchise QB next year, then NO WAY! Because, if we're assembling the team so that we can make a 3 or 4 year run, then I'd say this is Fitz's year to prove he is the QB to make that run with. If he fails or falters, we're going to go all in on a QB next year. So, having picks next year is necessary. In fact, if the Bills are eyeing next year for drafting a QB, then I'd say trading this pick for some picks next year is more likely than settling at 10 for a player they're not entirely sold on. But, to be that good, to where we're ready to insert a QB and go, we do need to figure out the LT position, and we need probably another CB, LB, and WR. So, I'd rather get a good, dependable LT and the other positions, too, and insert a very good QB next year, than get a great LT this year, pass on the chance at getting the WR, LB, or CB this year, and miss out on the picks needed next year for a move to get a franchise QB. In sum, trading up for a LT this year is kind of like going all in with Fitz. I'd rather the alternative, if I had to choose.
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