Question about WR at #10

[damaynman150]

Quickly: I have not posted on here in a very very long time, but I do check this page daily and love a vast majority of the insight and information I read. Also - this board was the only page I checked on my phone when traveling during the Mario-Mania day and that thread (yes, THAT one) was incredible.

 

Anyways, this topic - and perhaps it was discussed in a previous thread, but I did search and nothing came up that I skimmed over - revolves around the idea of drafting Michael Floyd at #10. I 100% agree that our offense needs a few more playmakers and a number-two WR is a must. That said, looking back on the list of wide-outs that have been drafted in the first round, is Michael Floyd a best use of our resources?

 

Let's get this out of the way: Michael Floyd is not an "Elite Wide Receiver Prospect" a la Andre Reed, Calvin Johnson, etc. He has some great qualities, but he is a much riskier prospect than say Calvin Johnson or AJ Green. A guy like Michael Floyd might in fact turn out to be a great player. But most prospects like him do not really blossom until their 3rd year. And that is what bothers me.

 

This has become such a common factor that it is now a cliche "The third year for a WR is when they break out!" Is it doing our team any favors TODAY by drafting Michael Floyd at #10? Let's assume he has a "typical" year for a player like him and produces in the ballpark of other first round WR that werent considered "elite prospects" over the past 5 drafts (I discounted Calvin Johnson and AJ Green for "elite" purposes, and 2008 didnt have a first rd WR!) An average season is 40 Receptions, 570 yards, 3.5 TDs - I will not take the time to source my research but you will just have to trust me on the numbers. For reference, David Nelson put up 61/653/5 last year.

 

Again, Michael Floyd might end up being a great WR and actually, the average numbers jumped up (a little) in latter seasons, but it does worry me that we might not see the pay-off in our top 10 pick for three years, especially if we can get a LT, LB, or CB that can start for AND PRODUCE for us right away. Thoughts? I know our team is not exactly built to "win now" but opportunity costs are still an issue. Am I being too short-sighted on this?

[sharebear]

Floyd seems more logical than Martin or rieff IMO. Both of those tackles I don't see being NFL starters. Regardless of what you think of Floyd he's starter ready. Just look at his numbers every year with subpar qb play. If we do not sign bell back we obv need oline depth But a 10th pick for either of those 2 would make me cringe. Either Floyd or kirpatrick is what I think they will do (hope) they will do

 

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1119057-2012-nfl-draft-15-players-that-should-be-on-buffalo-bills-radar

 

 

Also I found this pretty interesting. It shows some OLB prospects that i haven't heard of before that sound very interesting!

[Wayne Cubed]

Honestly, you could be right. He might end up getting all this hype, and take a while develop. Or he could end up being like a Julio Jones, #2 WR(6th overall) picked in 2011. Jones put up 959 yards and 8 TDs with a 17.8 YPC. Those numbers are fairly impressive for a rookie WR. If the Bills were able to get that out of Floyd, I'd be happy, and I'm sure Stevie and the Bills would be happy too.

 

Whether or not it was worth what Atlanta gave up, is a whole other story.

Edited March 26, 2012 by Wayne Cubed

[tennesseeboy]

I'm not sure how one could say that Floyd is nfl ready but Rief and Martin are not. Many mock drafts show them as top ten picks, and on this board many say Rief will be taken before the tenth pick. For what its worth if either Rief (my choice) or Martin is there at ten we would have to go with them. If both are gone? WR will get a look.

[damaynman150]

RE: Reiff and Martin. You make good points on the idea that they are not starter ready. That is probably accurate (but obviously not 100% conclusive). I guess I just have a natural disposition of not liking the idea of drafting a WR that early. A three-year window is not my idea of a good use of a pick - especially since rookie contracts are now 5 years (I think). I just think a starting LB, DE, or even the possibilty of LT will do more for our team this year than a WR putting up "average" numbers for rookies. Just MHO.

 

Of course these risks can happen to any pick at any position, so perhaps I am overreacting. I put my faith in Buddy/Chan.

[Cheddar's Dad]

I share your concern. Floyd went to ND and seems to be a big time player. But this draft appears to have a lot of receivers, i.e., Stephen Hill, Kendall Wright, Rueben Randal (a player that I've heard the Bills like and might be there in the 2nd.), Alshon Jeffrey, Mohamed Senu, Brian Quick, Nick Toon, Marvin Jones (a player I like), Chris Givens (very fast), and Joe Adams to list just a few. Buffalo is looking for a 2nd. receiver (second to Stevie). Do you take a 2nd. receiver at #10?

 

Buddy said we need linebackers and will draft probably two. I would not be unhappy in we took one at #10.

[dayman]

This topic has turned into the argument for moving down if at all possible this year. Get it done Buddy. Resign Bell, and move down/get more picks and take BPA to add depth and maybe even strike gold.

[Dorkington]

Comparing to Nelson isn't really accurate, as Nelson plays a different position (slot). Would be more accurate to compare him to the line up of Jones, Smith, etc...

[sharebear]

Then why arnt all the recivers being projected in the first round let alone top 15? After flloyd the recivers drop pretty bad grade wise. I'd much rather have a polished 4 year starter as my 2nd wide then a gamble on a project receiver. I feel like if there's that much concern on picking Martin or reiff that early then we can wait on someone else who would fit the same need as a back up. If you can see those two starting but Floyd being a develop receiver then idk where your logic is. Either way is is all IMO. We do have big needs at LT but so ding our 10th on one seems like a waste. If we can get a play maker like Floyd first pick and build some oline depth later in the draft that sounds a lot better to me. I think our oline did a lot better last year then our WRs. Besides Stevie no one really put up numbers. We could have the best defense and best oline in the league and still not make playoffs because we only have 1 WR threat and our running game of course but we need to have more fire power on the throwing side of the ball. An of course online comes into play with that. But even if we get a stacked oline who's fitz gonna throw to! Just Stevie every time? We caught people off guard with stevie but once they started doubling teaming him the rest of the season our offense started crapping out. We need more weapons on offense. Floyds hands are like glue. Which is what this teams been missing. I love Stevie but something he can't hold onto a ball

To save his life. Floyds 6'3 with still pretty good speed. Again something this team needs desperately. An to top it off Hes a great route runner. Just like stevie. So honestly we could put him anywhere on the line and I'm confident he will succeed

[Ramius]

A point to remember is that even though Floyd would be a rookie, he'd not expected to be the focal point of the offense right off the bat. He could provide an extremely valuable weapon while learning on the job. He's only going to draw the #2 CB, which will increase his chances for success.

[sharebear]

A point to remember is that even though Floyd would be a rookie, he'd not expected to be the focal point of the offense right off the bat. He could provide an extremely valuable weapon while learning on the job. He's only going to draw the #2 CB, which will increase his chances for success.

 

 

Good points here! I agree strongly and hope I'm not disappointed on draft day, I was very happy with the past 2 years draft so hopefully we can have an equal draft year or even better. If we learned anything from Darius is if BPA is available PICK EM

[Pete]

It is a deep year at WR and no doubt we will select one high(my guess is day 1. But the value in the WR is in the second round and later. There might be WRs such as Kendall Wright, Stephen Hill, Alshon Jeffery, Mohammad Sanu, Rueben Randle, etc available with our second pick. Unless a top player slides to our first pick, or we have Kuechly(I think we stick with Sheppard) or Decastro- the obvious best move is to trade down and get value at WR in the second/late first

[sharebear]

I wouldn't mind wright in the 2nd or 3rd but he is very small. We need size and hands. I'm sorry to repeat myself but after Blackmon and flloyd receivers drop like crazy. I'd rath have a sure pick then a long stretch. We need a WR that can make an impact right away. I think IMO he's the most NFL ready receiver even more so then Blackmon. Ima big ND fan and have watched flloyd for years. Kid is a beast and reliable unlike our entire receiving core. If we could get flloyd and wright now that would be BA

[1billsfan]

Quickly: I have not posted on here in a very very long time, but I do check this page daily and love a vast majority of the insight and information I read. Also - this board was the only page I checked on my phone when traveling during the Mario-Mania day and that thread (yes, THAT one) was incredible.

 

Anyways, this topic - and perhaps it was discussed in a previous thread, but I did search and nothing came up that I skimmed over - revolves around the idea of drafting Michael Floyd at #10. I 100% agree that our offense needs a few more playmakers and a number-two WR is a must. That said, looking back on the list of wide-outs that have been drafted in the first round, is Michael Floyd a best use of our resources?

 

Let's get this out of the way: Michael Floyd is not an "Elite Wide Receiver Prospect" a la Andre Reed, Calvin Johnson, etc. He has some great qualities, but he is a much riskier prospect than say Calvin Johnson or AJ Green. A guy like Michael Floyd might in fact turn out to be a great player. But most prospects like him do not really blossom until their 3rd year. And that is what bothers me.

 

This has become such a common factor that it is now a cliche "The third year for a WR is when they break out!" Is it doing our team any favors TODAY by drafting Michael Floyd at #10? Let's assume he has a "typical" year for a player like him and produces in the ballpark of other first round WR that werent considered "elite prospects" over the past 5 drafts (I discounted Calvin Johnson and AJ Green for "elite" purposes, and 2008 didnt have a first rd WR!) An average season is 40 Receptions, 570 yards, 3.5 TDs - I will not take the time to source my research but you will just have to trust me on the numbers. For reference, David Nelson put up 61/653/5 last year.

 

Again, Michael Floyd might end up being a great WR and actually, the average numbers jumped up (a little) in latter seasons, but it does worry me that we might not see the pay-off in our top 10 pick for three years, especially if we can get a LT, LB, or CB that can start for AND PRODUCE for us right away. Thoughts? I know our team is not exactly built to "win now" but opportunity costs are still an issue. Am I being too short-sighted on this?

 

 

I'm of the opinion that Floyd will drop and get picked between picks 24-30 to a team that has established veteran players who he'd have to answer to were Floyd to go on a drunken binge and get arrested. I also think that Stephen Hill will get drafted before him with his highest ceiling being the Bills pick at #10.

 

It's interesting that Dontari Poe shot up the internet draft boards based solely on his workouts, yet Hill garners no such favor. That's very puzzling to me. I truly think that Stephen Hill is very high on a lot of NFL team's boards based on his insane measurables and workout performances. This is a passing league and having a superfast tall threat on the outside is a huge advantage. It's also a huge advantage in the redzone to have a guy that can catch the ball over the DBs heads like Moss, Plaxico and Calvin Johnson.

 

There's a lot of Floyd talk on this board but I see no way the Bills touch him. They're a young team and they want solid players without character concerns that could derail the good thing they have going.

 

In the end, I think baring a trade down (which we all want) it's going to be either Kuechly or Hill at #10.

[Cheddar's Dad]

I'm of the opinion that Floyd will drop and get picked between picks 24-30 to a team that has established veteran players who he'd have to answer to were Floyd to go on a drunken binge and get arrested. I also think that Stephen Hill will get drafted before him with his highest ceiling being the Bills pick at #10.

 

It's interesting that Dontari Poe shot up the internet draft boards based solely on his workouts, yet Hill garners no such favor. That's very puzzling to me. I truly think that Stephen Hill is very high on a lot of NFL team's boards based on his insane measurables and workout performances. This is a passing league and having a superfast tall threat on the outside is a huge advantage. It's also a huge advantage in the redzone to have a guy that can catch the ball over the DBs heads like Moss, Plaxico and Calvin Johnson.

 

There's a lot of Floyd talk on this board but I see no way the Bills touch him. They're a young team and they want solid players without character concerns that could derail the good thing they have going.

 

In the end, I think baring a trade down (which we all want) it's going to be either Kuechly or Hill at #10.

 

It's not puzzling to me. Hill has not shown he's a consistently reliable receiver. He just does not have enough catches and, because of that, is a big risk in the first round. Don't get hung up on a guy just because he ran fast.

 

If you want a tall receiver that can catch the ball in the end zone like Moss, Plaxico, and Johnson, draft the 6'6", 250 lb. Fleener.

[1billsfan]

It's not puzzling to me. Hill has not shown he's a consistently reliable receiver. He just does not have enough catches and, because of that, is a big risk in the first round. Don't get hung up on a guy just because he ran fast.

 

If you want a tall receiver that can catch the ball in the end zone like Moss, Plaxico, and Johnson, draft the 6'6", 250 lb. Fleener.

 

Hill had 29 yards per catch last season. You want reliable, I want a freak who can take it to the house on any pass play. I think that's what the Bills are looking for too.

 

What's the difference between Poe and Hill other than their positions? Poe didn't do anything in college. It's all projection just like Hill's evaluation. Yet I see many drafts with Poe in the top ten. There's something weird going on with Hill's evaluation and Poe's.

 

Fleener's a TE, the Bills have MUCH bigger need to get a WR opposite Johnson.

[Cheddar's Dad]

Hill had 29 yards per catch last season. You want reliable, I want a freak who can take it to the house on any pass play. I think that's what the Bills are looking for too.

 

Poe didn't do anything in college.

 

Fleener's a TE, the Bills have MUCH bigger need to get a WR opposite Johnson.

 

1. How many catches did Hill have?

 

2. You should have said; Poe didn't do anything in college either. I think everyone will be surprised how far Poe drops on draft day.

 

3. Fleener is a wide receiver that can block. He has excellent hands as you might expect from Luck's go to target and can make the one handed grab look routine.

[Max997]

Floyd is going to the Jags so it wont matter

 

i dont buy into the it takes a WR 3 years logic either...if a guy can play and has a coach putting him in position to succeed he will perform

 

DeSean Jackson was drafted by Philly who runs a west coast system which is considered one of the hardest to learn and contribute on the field but he contributed and had a solid rookie year

 

its not always about the stats...putting another quality receiver on the field will only help the rest of the offense

[1billsfan]

1. How many catches did Hill have?

 

2. You should have said; Poe didn't do anything in college either. I think everyone will be surprised how far Poe drops on draft day.

 

3. Fleener is a wide receiver that can block. He has excellent hands as you might expect from Luck's go to target and can make the one handed grab look routine.

 

Well he's obviously not a possession receiver. At 29 ypc he's a deep threat who can take it to the house.

 

With Hill, the system and the QB problems are what could have been the reason for the low catch total numbers.

 

Fleener's not a WR, he's a TE.

[John from Riverside]

Regarding the 3rd year break out thing......

 

Keep in mind that in drafting a Floyd type player he is NOT your number 1 receiver......This is Stevie Johnston's team....he is your number 1 guy (or first option for those who dont beleive in number 1....number 2...etc)

 

Because you have an already entrenched primary option (we are also set at slot receiver and tight end) he will not be EXPECTED to put up huge numbers in his first year....he will do what he was brought in to do

 

- Take the lid off the defense

- Catch some deep balls

- Catch some jump balls

- Catch some red zone TD's

 

 

Floyd would not need to be a 1000 yard receiver in his first year in order to be successful.....and then as time goes on he gets better and better. Don Beebe was not the primary option when Andre Reed was on the field....but he def filled a need.