I don't understand all the LT being biggest need talk

[Lurker]

I have a few responses to the article.

 

So the "over the past 15 years" part doesn't resonate?

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I have a few responses to the article.

 

First of all it was written nearly two years ago (4/2010) and he didn't include an evaluation of the 2009 draftees.

 

Secondly the article addresses the top half of the first round, not all first rounders. And knowing this board, some people are going to misremember the article and think that it was about first round tackles.

 

It's not.

 

Thirdly the article addresses again the reason why guards are seldom drafted in the top 15.

 

So the "over the past 15 years" part doesn't resonate?

The article was interesting and I'm glad you posted it.

 

I suppose the findings are compelling although seeing as there is a raging debate over guard vs tackle, I'd be interested to see that broken down too.

 

Practically speaking, the study doesn't make me feel any better about drafting an offensive lineman.

 

Here are the O-linemen since his study that were drafted in the top 15 of the draft (all but one of them are OTs, one is a center).

 

2011: Tyron Smith, Mike Pouncey

2010: Russell Okung, Trent Williams,

2009: Eugene Monroe, Andre Smith, Jason Smith

2008: Jake Long, Ryan Clady, Chris Williams, Branden Albert

 

 

 

 

[buffan031]

I never made it past the statement about Martins lousy pro day ! WE HAVE ONE LT ON THE TEAM THE OTHER YOU MENTIONED IS OUR LG - SO WERE SUPPOSE TO GO THROUGH THE ENTIRE SEASON WITH ONE LT THAT IS IN HIS SECOND YEAR IN THE LEAGUE ??

 

WHAT THE HELL ARE YOU THINKING ??????

 

What position is going to help us get to the playoffs THIS SEASON more a LT or a Game changing receiver that can change the dynamic of your offense? Fitz can have all the time in the world to throw the ball but if he doesn't have anyone outside of stevie to get it to, or someone that can't get seperation then what good is the offensive tackle. Long term yes tackle would work but we are trying to end a 12 year playoff drought, a WR will give you a better chance to do that. You fill the WR need first and then get the left tackle. Not saying that we only go into the season with one LT, I'm saying it's not our biggest need so we can get one or two in the later rounds of the draft.

Edited March 28, 2012 by buffan031

[NickelCity]

What position is going to help us get to the playoffs THIS SEASON more a LT or a Game changing receiver that can change the dynamic of your offense? Fitz can have all the time in the world to throw the ball but if he doesn't have anyone outside of stevie to get it to, or someone that can't get seperation then what good is the offensive tackle. Long term yes tackle would work but we are trying to end a 12 year playoff drought, a WR will give you a better chance to do that. You fill the WR need first and then get the left tackle. Not saying that we only go into the season with one LT, I'm saying it's not our biggest need so we can get one or two in the later rounds of the draft.

 

I actually disagree, and I'll add snazzy talk to my own (also semi-rhetorical) question. What position will be more helpful to our playoff push this season: a stalwart LT that can protect fitz's blindside, radically opening up receiving routes previously unattainable given the paucity of extended pocket protection...or a WR?

 

 

In all seriousness, I do think that if it were possible to run an experiment, we would see a LT have more of an impact than an equivalent (talent-level) WR on our team as it currently stands. I am keeping an open mind about the draft, but I have a preference, as we all do I suppose.

Edited March 28, 2012 by NickelCity

[LynchMob23]

I think if that stalwart OT is there, sure, take him. But if it's a middling guy who is at best as good as Hairston or slightly better, why do it just to say you got a tackle?

[sharebear]

I actually disagree, and I'll add snazzy talk to my own (also semi-rhetorical) question. What position will be more helpful to our playoff push this season: a stalwart LT that can protect fitz's blindside, radically opening up receiving routes previously unattainable given the paucity of extended pocket protection...or a WR?

 

 

In all seriousness, I do think that if it were possible to run an experiment, we would see a LT have more of an impact than an equivalent (talent-level) WR on our team as it currently stands. I am keeping an open mind about the draft, but I have a preference, as we all do I suppose.

 

 

 

lol even at the beg of the year where was our nice route running? sorry but besides stevie our receivers blow. IDC if we got the best LT in the world. Like the other guy said fitz can have all day to throw and still have no one open. So because we have a porspect LT like martin or reiff is gonna make jones and roosevlet and all our other mediocre receivers be good all of a sudden? I see your need for a LT but come on man lol having a goof LT doesnt make your recievers better. Fitz had lots of time to throw and still found nobody open half the time. We need route runners, people who can go up an get the ball at a high level, and we need sure hands (cough cough floyd cough cough)

[Lurker]

The article was interesting and I'm glad you posted it.

 

I suppose the findings are compelling although seeing as there is a raging debate over guard vs tackle, I'd be interested to see that broken down too.

 

Practically speaking, the study doesn't make me feel any better about drafting an offensive lineman.

 

Here are the O-linemen since his study that were drafted in the top 15 of the draft (all but one of them are OTs, one is a center).

 

2011: Tyron Smith, Mike Pouncey

2010: Russell Okung, Trent Williams,

2009: Eugene Monroe, Andre Smith, Jason Smith

2008: Jake Long, Ryan Clady, Chris Williams, Branden Albert

 

How about This comparison:

 

NFL’s All-Pro first teams from 2007-11: Tackles

 

Jake Long (Round 1, No. 1); Joe Thomas (Round 1, No. 3 overall); Walter Jones (Round 1, No. 6); Jordan Gross (Round 1, No. 8); Ryan Clady (Round 1, No. 12); Michael Roos (Round 2, No. 41); Matt Light (Round 2, No. 48); Jason Peters (Undrafted)

 

"There’s no secret here: If you want a reliable, sometimes dominant tackle, then it’s going to cost you a high draft pick. Jason Peters’ story stands as the exception to the rule, as he slipped through the cracks at the 2004 draft, only to make the last five Pro Bowls and garner All-Pro nods in four of the last five seasons with Buffalo and Philadelphia.

 

Tackles are routinely drafted in the top 10 every year. This year we could see two in USC’s Matt Kalil and Iowa’s Riley Reiff."

[San Jose Bills Fan]

How about This comparison:

 

NFL's All-Pro first teams from 2007-11: Tackles

 

Jake Long (Round 1, No. 1); Joe Thomas (Round 1, No. 3 overall); Walter Jones (Round 1, No. 6); Jordan Gross (Round 1, No. 8); Ryan Clady (Round 1, No. 12); Michael Roos (Round 2, No. 41); Matt Light (Round 2, No. 48); Jason Peters (Undrafted)

 

"There's no secret here: If you want a reliable, sometimes dominant tackle, then it's going to cost you a high draft pick. Jason Peters' story stands as the exception to the rule, as he slipped through the cracks at the 2004 draft, only to make the last five Pro Bowls and garner All-Pro nods in four of the last five seasons with Buffalo and Philadelphia.

 

Tackles are routinely drafted in the top 10 every year. This year we could see two in USC's Matt Kalil and Iowa's Riley Reiff."

We went from one study talking about offensive linemen taken in the Top 15 and are now talking about the draft positions of All Pro tackles.

 

It all depends on the individual. I'm too tired and it's too late for me to cobble together a list of highly-drafted O-linemen who have flopped, but there are plenty of them… especially if we expand the pool to include first and second rounders as opposed to Top 15 picks.

 

It all comes down to evaluating the individual and making the correct judgement on that particular player.

 

When you're drafting, you can't really use rules of thumb. There are always exceptions to every rule. And you can always point to successes and failures who bolster/weaken any given rule of thumb.

 

I recently said I like this Cordy Glenn kid and wouldn't mind seeing the Bills draft him. Many other people disagree. There are disagreeing opinions on pretty much every top tackle in this draft with the possible exception of Kalil.

 

Even the NFL teams don't know for sure who will be successful and who will be a flop.

 

 

 

In other words, the Bills have the 10th pick in the draft.

 

Based on the first study you linked, an O-lineman picked at that spot would start 90% of his games.

 

 

But just because the Bills select an O-linemen in the Top 15 doesn't ensure anything at all.

 

If they pick the wrong guy he can be a bust.

 

The draft position is really meaningless… it's ancillary.

[Doc]

How about This comparison:

 

NFL’s All-Pro first teams from 2007-11: Tackles

 

Jake Long (Round 1, No. 1); Joe Thomas (Round 1, No. 3 overall); Walter Jones (Round 1, No. 6); Jordan Gross (Round 1, No. 8); Ryan Clady (Round 1, No. 12); Michael Roos (Round 2, No. 41); Matt Light (Round 2, No. 48); Jason Peters (Undrafted)

 

"There’s no secret here: If you want a reliable, sometimes dominant tackle, then it’s going to cost you a high draft pick. Jason Peters’ story stands as the exception to the rule, as he slipped through the cracks at the 2004 draft, only to make the last five Pro Bowls and garner All-Pro nods in four of the last five seasons with Buffalo and Philadelphia.

 

Tackles are routinely drafted in the top 10 every year. This year we could see two in USC’s Matt Kalil and Iowa’s Riley Reiff."

So basically more (62.5%) all-pro LT's come from the 1st round. But a good number (37.5%) come from later rounds. How many 1st rounders have proven to be average to below LT's? And outside of Long and Clady being taken in the same (2008) draft, each one came from a different draft class, meaning at best you get an all-pro LT once every 3 years, and once every 4 years from the 1st round. Not great odds there.

[JohnC]

So basically more (62.5%) all-pro LT's come from the 1st round. But a good number (37.5%) come from later rounds. How many 1st rounders have proven to be average to below LT's? And outside of Long and Clady being taken in the same (2008) draft, each one came from a different draft class, meaning at best you get an all-pro LT once every 3 years, and once every 4 years from the 1st round. Not great odds there.

 

You can make the same argument about the odds of a high draft choice turning out to be all-pro for every position. The reality is that the higher you draft a player at any position the greater chance that player will be successful.

 

The odds work against you that no matter who you draft very highly that player won't be an all pro. But that doesn't mean that the non all-pro player can't be a very good player for you. Marcell Dareus, who was a very high draft pick, may or may not be an all-pro player. And yet, he was a terrific draft pick and is an instrumental player for us on defense.

Edited April 2, 2012 by JohnC

[Lurker]

Bump...

 

"Take a quick look around the league — of the 32 players that would start at left tackle if the season started today, 75 percent (24 out of 32) of those players were drafted in the first (18) or second round (six). One is a third-rounder, two came out of the fourth round, one was picked in the fifth round and another in the seventh. Three were not drafted."

[The Senator]

Bump...

 

"Take a quick look around the league — of the 32 players that would start at left tackle if the season started today, 75 percent (24 out of 32) of those players were drafted in the first (18) or second round (six). One is a third-rounder, two came out of the fourth round, one was picked in the fifth round and another in the seventh. Three were not drafted."

 

I'm not sure what that data reveals, if anything at all.

 

 

I was going to reply that those numbers beg the question, "But how many first-round LTs are really any good at all?"

 

 

I further wondered aloud, "Does drafting a LT in round one REALLY guarantee that our problems at OT will be solved, as many on TSW insist - with varying degress of apoplexy- that it will?"

 

 

Then I read the rest of the article and got my answer...

 

The 20 offensive tackles that have been drafted in the first round since Long and Clady were selected (four in ’09, four in ’10, six in ’11) have a grand total of zero Pro Bowl bids between them...The five tackles that were lumped between Clady and Brown in picks 14-21 in ’08 have shown promise at times, but each is of them is still trying to prove himself, to varying degrees, entering season No. 5...It’s getting late for them, though, and the majority of the ’08 first-round class of offensive tackles may never quite live up to its billing.

 

 

 

 

And there you have it - my questions were answered! Once Matt Kalil is 'off the board', We definitely DO NOT reach for a LT in round one.

 

We draft David DeCastro, guaranteed all-pro RG for the next 10 seasons and indisputably the BPA when we pick at the #10 spot. We take 'bama ILF Dont'a Hightower with our #41 pick in round 2, and Georgia Tech WR Stephen Hill with our #71 pick on round 3.

 

 

Early on day 3, we draft Oklahoma State OT Levy Adcock with one of our 4th round picks.

 

 

GO BILLSSS!!!!

 

19 and 0 baby!!!!!

 

 

 

 

 

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I'm not sure what that data reveals, if anything at all.

 

I was going to reply that those numbers beg the question, "But how many first-round LTs are really any good at all?"

 

I further wondered aloud, "Does drafting a LT in round one REALLY guarantee that our problems at OT will be solved, as many on TSW insist - with varying degress of apoplexy- that it will?"

 

Then I read the rest of the article and got my answer...

 

The 20 offensive tackles that have been drafted in the first round since Long and Clady were selected (four in '09, four in '10, six in '11) have a grand total of zero Pro Bowl bids between them...The five tackles that were lumped between Clady and Brown in picks 14-21 in '08 have shown promise at times, but each is of them is still trying to prove himself, to varying degrees, entering season No. 5...It's getting late for them, though, and the majority of the '08 first-round class of offensive tackles may never quite live up to its billing.

 

And there you have it - my questions were answered! Once Matt Kalil is 'off the board', We definitely DO NOT reach for a LT in round one.

 

We draft David DeCastro, guaranteed all-pro RG for the next 10 seasons and indisputably the BPA when we pick at the #10 spot. We take 'bama ILF Dont'a Hightower with our #41 pick in round 2, and Georgia Tech WR Stephen Hill with our #71 pick on round 3.

 

Early on day 3, we draft Oklahoma State OT Levy Adcock with one of our 4th round picks.

 

GO BILLSSS!!!!

 

19 and 0 baby!!!!!

As for the bolded, that's no surprise.

 

In spite of these facts, some here believe that drafting an OT at #10 would be a good decision, regardless of the actual player.

 

I disagree with your conclusion though.

 

The takeaway for me is that you draft a top tackle like Cordy Glenn and if by some miracle he doesn't become the starting left tackle, you move him to guard where he's at least as good if not better than DeCastro.

 

I agree about Addingcock though.

 

 

[The Senator]

As for the bolded, that's no surprise.

 

In spite of these facts, some here believe that drafting an OT at #10 would be a good decision, regardless of the actual player.

 

I disagree with your conclusion though.

 

The takeaway for me is that you draft a top tackle like Cordy Glenn and if by some miracle he doesn't become the starting left tackle, you move him to guard where he's at least as good if not better than DeCastro.

 

I agree about Addingcock though.

 

 

 

I'd love to announce that pick...

[TheKidd]

Our oline was the best it was in years last year. I'm not saying it was fantastic but it was solid. Whether it was Hairston, Bell or Levitre at left tackle they all played well as did the whole oline. We also have a track record with being able to develop late round LT picks as well as undrafted players at LT into being good to great players. Jason Peters was an undrafted tight end that we molded into one of the best tackles in the league and Demetrius Bell who was a 7th round pick, while not great was built up into a solid starter. I believe our coaching staff can do the same with Hairston as well. I believe that we should give Hairston at least one shot to be our starting left tackle this year if it doesn't work out then we can just either draft someone to fill the void next year or draft someone in the 2nd, 3rd or middle rounds that can come in and compete with him for the starting spot. The only sure fire guy at tackle in the draft this year is Kalil who won't be there when we draft at 10 and there are questions about both Reiff and Martin especially Martin who had a lousy pro day and could only lift 225 pounds on the bench press 20 times as well as questions about his stance and footwork. Therefore, with that being said i believe the bills have to place their focus on two other players. I believe WR is our biggest need by far. You cannot look at the other wide receivers on this roster and say that you would be comfortable with any one of them starting opposite Stevie. Thats why i think our main player we should be targeting if he is there is Michael Floyd. This guy is just to good to pass up even if Martin or Reiff are there. There are to many questions about the other receivers after the top 2 even though it is deep. Floyd is the one WR that can come in and contribute and be a difference maker day one at the receiver position. If Floyd is not there then i believe we should go with Dre Kirkpatrick at CB from Alabama. This guy is huge at 6'3, has very good speed, is great in coverage and is not afraid to hit and will again have more of an impact than any of the left tackles we could take there. If neither one of these players are there i believe they can trade down and grab a LT at that point.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

If the Bills do want to draft an offensive lineman in the 1st round, I would rather they draft DeCastro and move Levetrie to Tackle. The analysts are saying DeCastro is the best guard propect in ten years. Maybe another John Hannah?

[ColdBlueNorth]

Our oline was the best it was in years last year. I'm not saying it was fantastic but it was solid. Whether it was Hairston, Bell or Levitre at left tackle they all played well as did the whole oline. We also have a track record with being able to develop late round LT picks as well as undrafted players at LT into being good to great players. Jason Peters was an undrafted tight end that we molded into one of the best tackles in the league and Demetrius Bell who was a 7th round pick, while not great was built up into a solid starter. I believe our coaching staff can do the same with Hairston as well. I believe that we should give Hairston at least one shot to be our starting left tackle this year if it doesn't work out then we can just either draft someone to fill the void next year or draft someone in the 2nd, 3rd or middle rounds that can come in and compete with him for the starting spot. The only sure fire guy at tackle in the draft this year is Kalil who won't be there when we draft at 10 and there are questions about both Reiff and Martin especially Martin who had a lousy pro day and could only lift 225 pounds on the bench press 20 times as well as questions about his stance and footwork. Therefore, with that being said i believe the bills have to place their focus on two other players. I believe WR is our biggest need by far. You cannot look at the other wide receivers on this roster and say that you would be comfortable with any one of them starting opposite Stevie. Thats why i think our main player we should be targeting if he is there is Michael Floyd. This guy is just to good to pass up even if Martin or Reiff are there. There are to many questions about the other receivers after the top 2 even though it is deep. Floyd is the one WR that can come in and contribute and be a difference maker day one at the receiver position. If Floyd is not there then i believe we should go with Dre Kirkpatrick at CB from Alabama. This guy is huge at 6'3, has very good speed, is great in coverage and is not afraid to hit and will again have more of an impact than any of the left tackles we could take there. If neither one of these players are there i believe they can trade down and grab a LT at that point.

 

 

I don't think they will pick OT or WR at 10.

 

I think they will go for DB, and if he is there Dre Kirkpatrik.

 

The reason I believe this is because I believe that they have not entirely given up on Easley, and I believe there are too many question marks around the prospective LTs and any WRs at that number 10 spot.

 

I could be wrong, but unless Buddy really covets a player early and is willing to part with a bunch of picks to move up, or finds someone that is willing to trade picks to move up to 10 so we can move down... both scenarios not likely, then I don't see him reaching in either of those directions when similar talent can be found in the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the draft. Not only similar talent, but less pressure to reach and pay 1st round money to someone who does not really separate that well from the pack.

 

We will see, but I think that a top end DBs is the most sure value at the 10 spot.

[xsoldier54]

Our oline was the best it was in years last year. I'm not saying it was fantastic but it was solid. Whether it was Hairston, Bell or Levitre at left tackle they all played well as did the whole oline. We also have a track record with being able to develop late round LT picks as well as undrafted players at LT into being good to great players. Jason Peters was an undrafted tight end that we molded into one of the best tackles in the league and Demetrius Bell who was a 7th round pick, while not great was built up into a solid starter. I believe our coaching staff can do the same with Hairston as well. I believe that we should give Hairston at least one shot to be our starting left tackle this year if it doesn't work out then we can just either draft someone to fill the void next year or draft someone in the 2nd, 3rd or middle rounds that can come in and compete with him for the starting spot. The only sure fire guy at tackle in the draft this year is Kalil who won't be there when we draft at 10 and there are questions about both Reiff and Martin especially Martin who had a lousy pro day and could only lift 225 pounds on the bench press 20 times as well as questions about his stance and footwork. Therefore, with that being said i believe the bills have to place their focus on two other players. I believe WR is our biggest need by far. You cannot look at the other wide receivers on this roster and say that you would be comfortable with any one of them starting opposite Stevie. Thats why i think our main player we should be targeting if he is there is Michael Floyd. This guy is just to good to pass up even if Martin or Reiff are there. There are to many questions about the other receivers after the top 2 even though it is deep. Floyd is the one WR that can come in and contribute and be a difference maker day one at the receiver position. If Floyd is not there then i believe we should go with Dre Kirkpatrick at CB from Alabama. This guy is huge at 6'3, has very good speed, is great in coverage and is not afraid to hit and will again have more of an impact than any of the left tackles we could take there. If neither one of these players are there i believe they can trade down and grab a LT at that point.

We currently have one LT on our roster. What about that do you not understand? Hairston did a decent job last year, but what if he got hurt? This O line needs depth and I wouldn't be surprised if they added more than one guy who can play LT in the draft. It clearly is a position of need.

[BillsFan-4-Ever]

Our oline was the best it was in years last year. I'm not saying it was fantastic but it was solid.

 

And after 4 weeks the wheels fell off.

 

Look at the Miami game when they had to switch centers, it was horrific!!! No depth = not a great lineup

[eme123]

I agree with the OP. The Bills did a lot of shuffling last year at LT and always managed to get the job done. Hairston is a good young talent who got a good amount of reps last year. He's only going to improve in year two. I think if there is any area of potential need that we don't address, LT should be it. This is a good spot to roll the dice and go after other needs. We can always get a back up LT in rounds 3-7.

[PDaDdy]

Our oline was the best it was in years last year. I'm not saying it was fantastic but it was solid. Whether it was Hairston, Bell or Levitre at left tackle they all played well as did the whole oline. We also have a track record with being able to develop late round LT picks as well as undrafted players at LT into being good to great players. Jason Peters was an undrafted tight end that we molded into one of the best tackles in the league and Demetrius Bell who was a 7th round pick, while not great was built up into a solid starter. I believe our coaching staff can do the same with Hairston as well. I believe that we should give Hairston at least one shot to be our starting left tackle this year if it doesn't work out then we can just either draft someone to fill the void next year or draft someone in the 2nd, 3rd or middle rounds that can come in and compete with him for the starting spot. The only sure fire guy at tackle in the draft this year is Kalil who won't be there when we draft at 10 and there are questions about both Reiff and Martin especially Martin who had a lousy pro day and could only lift 225 pounds on the bench press 20 times as well as questions about his stance and footwork. Therefore, with that being said i believe the bills have to place their focus on two other players. I believe WR is our biggest need by far. You cannot look at the other wide receivers on this roster and say that you would be comfortable with any one of them starting opposite Stevie. Thats why i think our main player we should be targeting if he is there is Michael Floyd. This guy is just to good to pass up even if Martin or Reiff are there. There are to many questions about the other receivers after the top 2 even though it is deep. Floyd is the one WR that can come in and contribute and be a difference maker day one at the receiver position. If Floyd is not there then i believe we should go with Dre Kirkpatrick at CB from Alabama. This guy is huge at 6'3, has very good speed, is great in coverage and is not afraid to hit and will again have more of an impact than any of the left tackles we could take there. If neither one of these players are there i believe they can trade down and grab a LT at that point.

 

 

I certainly understand the talk about LT being our biggest need probably because it is. WR is definitely a huge need as well. That being said I think that Floyd if he is available is a better pick than any of the tackles we might have a shot at #10.

 

We do definitely need an LT. Developing late round picks and UFAs into NFL LTs is generally not a strategy that is going to be successful in the long run. In my opinion we got lucky on Jason Peters and then pissed it away. Bell was nothing special but he eventually became serviceable although he couldn't be relied upon due to injuries. Jason Peters was a guy that could play on an island like a shutdown corner. Bell and Hairston are guys that need RB chip block and TE help.