Who genuinely thinks they can scout college talent better than Nix?

[Geno Smith's Arm]

Anybody remember the Bungles about four of five years ago making a public statement like this one.

 

And saving money on scouts, doing it. Sorry, I don't have a link but I remember it was discussed on here a bit. Seems that Buddy thinks pros should have those jobs and "in Nix I believe" at the moment. I think he has done a good job and this year we will see some results. BTW in the draft I would really really like us to try to move up and get the only great LT, Bell or no Bell even if it takes 3 picks to do it. I also want the TE from that team and I want Hightower (as an OLB). Git er done BN

 

If you are going to quote me, don't add emoticons to my post. It completely changes the the intent of my post. The proper place for those (if there even is one) is with your own comments.

The Bengals were better than the Bills last year...

Edited March 24, 2012 by Matthews' Bag

[San Jose Bills Fan]

A good chunk of the as-of-now lousy 2010 draft could be as much Chan Gailey's fault as Nix. The most egregious error of the Nix/Gailey regime in their two years BY FAR was the hiring of George Edwards to be DC. I didn't like the move then or now. Edwards did not have the resume or pedigree. I didn't mind the concept of becoming a 3-4 team, but because of it we needed 3-4 scheme players, which led Nix to draft Troup and Carrington. If Chan hired a Wanny kind of 4-3 guy, those would not be the #2 and #3 selections.

 

Troup has been given a bad rap, but he has been injured both years. I don't think anyone, including Wanny, Nix and Chan themselves know whether Troup can or will be a good player in this league. He better start to become a factor soon, and he is likely not going to see the field more than 1/3 of the plays. Still, we don't know if that was a bad choice or not, it was unfortunate. I also think it's foolish to say you thought right away he was not a good choice and we reached, because the kid has not been given a chance to play. If we wasn't hurt, he may or may not have become a good pick.

I've already posted in this thread but I had forgotten to mention as 3rdand12 did what an interesting discussion it's been. I too had avoided it based on the title but after having exhausted all the other threads I was drawn in and read the whole thing (burp). Good job, Kelly.

 

The irony of the 2010 draft is that Nix has been pretty steadfast about taking the best players possible and yet in retrospect, he would have a weak argument that he didn't actually draft for need. You simply can't say that Troup and Carrington were the best players available.

 

As has been pointed out there were mitigating factors (regime transition, etc) but clearly Nix's moves in the 2010 draft was sensitive to George Edwards' vision as this offseason's moves were sensitive to Dave Wannstedt's vision.

 

 

[Kelly the Dog]

I've already posted in this thread but I had forgotten to mention as 3rdand12 did what an interesting discussion it's been. I too had avoided it based on the title but after having exhausted all the other threads I was drawn in and read the whole thing (burp). Good job, Kelly.

 

The irony of the 2010 draft is that Nix has been pretty steadfast about taking the best players possible and yet in retrospect, he would have a weak argument that he didn't actually draft for need. You simply can't say that Troup and Carrington were the best players available.

I don't think Nix has ever flat said we would take the best player available, and as i stated before in this thread, there is really no such thing. There is far more likelihood of BPA in round 1 than any other round as well.

 

Furthermore, there is a very small but very important distinction to be made about BPA. When a GM like Nix, AFTER the draft, says we wanted and took the Best Player Available like he did with Spiller, that does not at all mean it was always their intention to take the BPA. All it means is that when they picked, because of who was gone, the BPA was the best choice over the BPA at a different position.

 

Just because he chose Spiller and said he was the best player available so that is why he chose him doesn't at all mean he will take the best player available in the next round or the next round 1 draft.

Edited March 24, 2012 by Kelly the Dog

[dpberr]

Saying you can draft better than Buddy Nix is like saying you can run the nuclear power plant better than the guy who's been doing it for 30 years.

 

Yeah you might get lucky, but in the end, without training and especially experience, you'll probably melt the entire place down and kill us all.

 

FWIW, as a fan I don't see major issues with the Nix approach. The Bills have avoided spontaneous bustville in his drafts.

[TPS]

I hope someone at OBD shows Buddy the thread, I'm sure he'll get a kick out of it...

[QCity]

I don't think Nix has ever flat said we would take the best player available, and as i stated before in this thread, there is really no such thing. There is far more likelihood of BPA in round 1 than any other round as well.

 

Furthermore, there is a very small but very important distinction to be made about BPA. When a GM like Nix, AFTER the draft, says we wanted and took the Best Player Available like he did with Spiller, that does not at all mean it was always their intention to take the BPA. All it means is that when they picked, because of who was gone, the BPA was the best choice over the BPA at a different position.

 

Just because he choice Spiller and said he was the best player available so that is why he chose him doesn't at all mean he will take the best player available in the next round or the next round 1 draft.

I have no idea where people come up with this "Nix always drafts BPA" garbage. I think 2 or 3 people say it, then 100 people parrot it. Gailey wanted a "waterbug" back. Gailey wanted to run a 3-4, Troup was our new NT and Carrington our new 3-4 end.

[bowery4]

If you are going to quote me, don't add emoticons to my post. It completely changes the the intent of my post. The proper place for those (if there even is one) is with your own comments.

The Bengals were better than the Bills last year...

Sorry Matthew's Bag, I changed my post to reflect your wishes (and I thought it the was a proper place). And the Bengal's team I was speaking about a few years ago, was not even better than Dick's Bills. They too have made good strides since then.

[CosmicBills]

Saying you can draft better than Buddy Nix is like saying you can run the nuclear power plant better than the guy who's been doing it for 30 years.

 

Yeah you might get lucky, but in the end, without training and especially experience, you'll probably melt the entire place down and kill us all.

 

FWIW, as a fan I don't see major issues with the Nix approach. The Bills have avoided spontaneous bustville in his drafts.

I'm not sure about that ... I mean, Homer Simpson has been in charge of safety for over 20 years and I know I could do a better job running the Springfield plant than he does.

 

On second thought, maybe that analogy is apropos.

[Geno Smith's Arm]

So what are these so called picks that you would have made in the last 2 drafts using the big board of people in the media? I want to see these so called draft picks that the media people would have picked instead of the players nix picked. otherwise, you are really just blowing smoke. especially if you use kipers big board for nix's first draft (and his first pick) then you would have taken clausen over spiller. the spiller pick might not be grand, but it is way better than drafting clausen.

 

The media folks are nowhere near as good as the real scouts/GMs for the most part. The only reason the media looked so savy compared to us before is because levy/don made too many silly picks.

 

but saying you can use the big board from the media types as enough info to make better draft picks than nix is just silly. Especially when the media folks disagree so much. The only thing they agree on is that andrew luck is the best prospect since elway, but other than that, they all disgree on everything else. So saying you can collectivly use contradicting reports to pinpoint a draft pick, and have better luck than someone who has seen hours of tape on these players, is bogus. complete bogus.

 

And do you know that most of these magazine/website types had Peterson rated higher than Dareus? It is true. So you using your big board plan, you would have taken peterson over dareus. how splendid is that? That would have just been terrible.

 

 

I immediately thought of this site because it has archives of its "Big Board", I didn't cherry pick or anything. I'm not going to go through the draft to see how it unfolded, and which players were available, but I think it gives a fair idea of what a draft based on a sites board would look like.

 

http://www.draftcountdown.com/archive/2010/2010-Top-Overall.php

 

I used 2010 because that at least gives 2 seasons to evaluate, these are the Bills picks, and the player ranked at that pick on the sites board.

 

Bills #1 (9th) Spiller * Draft Countdown- Brian Buluga

Bills #2 (41st)Troup * DC-Ryan Matthews

Bills #3 (7nd) Carrington * DC-John Jerry

Bills #4 (107th) Easley * DC-Ben Tate

Bills #5 (140th) Wang * DC-Walter Thurmond

Bills #6 (178th) Moats * DC-Lindsey Witten

Bills #7 (192nd) Batten* DC-Walter McFadden

Bills #8 (209th) Levi Brown* DC-Adam Ulatoski

Bills #9 (216th) Calloway * DC-Eric Olsen

 

 

Do you really see a big difference in terms of talent? I know it's not perfect, because of other variables, but teams are all working with very similar boards

Edited March 26, 2012 by Matthews' Bag

[3rdand12]

I'm not sure about that ... I mean, Homer Simpson has been in charge of safety for over 20 years and I know I could do a better job running the Springfield plant than he does.

 

On second thought, maybe that analogy is apropos.

sir your posts throughout this adventure have been a delightful break from some intense responses. as soon as i saw the two words nuclear plant i saw donuts, donut crumbs and dear mr simpson at the helm. well done!

[Ozymandius]

Just wanted this on the record.

 

Nix (and many other GMs) will regret passing on Kellen Moore in the draft.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Do you really see a big difference in terms of talent? I know it's not perfect, because of other variables, but teams are all working with very similar boards

First thanks for doing all the work.

 

I'm not sure I really agree with your last statement.

 

This might be the case on some players where a consensus exists and probably that happens with the top prospects.

 

But as you get deeper into things (for instance 150 picks into the draft), I think there is probably a lack of consensus on a lot of players and that the range of where they'll go gets wider and wider.

 

One team can look at a player and give him a 4th round grade and another team might view him as a "priority free agent."

 

JMO.

 

 

[Geno Smith's Arm]

First thanks for doing all the work.

 

I'm not sure I really agree with your last statement.

 

This might be the case on some players where a consensus exists and probably that happens with the top prospects.

 

But as you get deeper into things (for instance 150 picks into the draft), I think there is probably a lack of consensus on a lot of players and that the range of where they'll go gets wider and wider.

 

One team can look at a player and give him a 4th round grade and another team might view him as a "priority free agent."

 

JMO.

 

I totally agree, and acknowledged that is where boards diverge. The thing is, as as the draft gets to the bottom rounds, it becomes more and more of a crapshoot. Certainly some GM's have been better than others in the later rounds *, but the players that a GM really likes must often get picked by other teams before he gets a chance to make the selection. So much luck involved, even just to have the opportunity to select guys that you have applied your scouting talent to find.

 

 

I really think the draft is just step one, and that it's after a player gets into the organization that the real work begins, especially for the lower round guys. Equally talented guys, drafted into different situations can have radically different careers. The coaching, who they have to compete with for a job, how much time they are given to develop, what kind of risks a player is willing to take** ...on and on. Most guys just don't make it, and others are in the wrong situation. One team's trash, is another team's decent back up etc.

 

I think Buddy Nix is doing a great job, and I would never claim to know more about football, but I do believe I could do a reasonably comparable draft. The 2010 draft isn't very impressive. Really, look at it. I believe I could have drafted comparably well, even if it's wasn't all Buddy Nix's draft.

 

* I would guess that stable, consistent organizations like Pittsburgh, that have had a consistent drafting philosophy, and style of play (regardless of GM or coach) across many seasons, do better in the later rounds. The emphasis is on certain types of players, year in and year out, as opposed to just talent. I think that is a little different.

 

** Not sure people like to hear it, but I think PED's can have a big effect on players careers. Are they willing to take them? Are they willing to take larger amounts? Will they play through injury with a little help? All kinds of "commitments" that can effect a career. These aren't necessarily "scout-able".

Edited March 26, 2012 by Matthews' Bag

[Rob's House]

I don't know if anyone's said this, and I'm not going to read the whole thread to find out, but at draft time we should have an armchair GM thread where everyone can chime in with who they want to pick at that moment when the Bills are on the clock.

 

That way we can see who would do what in real time. Then people can't play Captain Hindsight or conveniently cherry pick the one's they got right a few years later.

[Geno Smith's Arm]

I don't know if anyone's said this, and I'm not going to read the whole thread to find out, but at draft time we should have an armchair GM thread where everyone can chime in with who they want to pick at that moment when the Bills are on the clock.

 

That way we can see who would do what in real time. Then people can't play Captain Hindsight or conveniently cherry pick the one's they got right a few years later.

 

I'm pretty into the draft, but I can't sit around tracking the draft for 2 days. I think it would be just as fair to submit a draft after the fact (before training camp, at least).

[Rob's House]

I'm pretty into the draft, but I can't sit around tracking the draft for 2 days. I think it would be just as fair to submit a draft after the fact (before training camp, at least).

No, after the fact you already know who fell into later rounds. It's no the same. Get an iphone, it makes it easier to have a life and be a nerd simultaneously.

[Lurker]

I'm pretty into the draft, but I can't sit around tracking the draft for 2 days. I think it would be just as fair to submit a draft after the fact (before training camp, at least).

This thread keeps getting better and better.

 

Maybe Buddy could send his picks to NFL headquarters and just go golfing on draft weekend...

[Geno Smith's Arm]

No, after the fact you already know who fell into later rounds. It's no the same. Get an iphone, it makes it easier to have a life and be a nerd simultaneously.

gee, call it a handicap, but Buddy has known he was going to be working the draft much longer than I've known. He has a pretty good head start. I'm not buying an iphone for the draft, I have a child to take care of, and it will be years before the draft can be evaluated anyway.

Edited March 25, 2012 by Matthews' Bag

[TPS]

I don't know if anyone's said this, and I'm not going to read the whole thread to find out, but at draft time we should have an armchair GM thread where everyone can chime in with who they want to pick at that moment when the Bills are on the clock.

 

That way we can see who would do what in real time. Then people can't play Captain Hindsight or conveniently cherry pick the one's they got right a few years later.

Good idea.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I don't know if anyone's said this, and I'm not going to read the whole thread to find out, but at draft time we should have an armchair GM thread where everyone can chime in with who they want to pick at that moment when the Bills are on the clock.

 

That way we can see who would do what in real time. Then people can't play Captain Hindsight or conveniently cherry pick the one's they got right a few years later.

We typically have a live draft thread where guys chime in when the Bills pick comes up.

 

I remember numerous moments of posting the player I wanted the Bills to take as the card was making its way up to the podium.

 

I don't know how your vision differs from this but we do it every year.