Who genuinely thinks they can scout college talent better than Nix?

[Billsrhody]

I think its hard for fans to see us pass on talents like Ngata and Orakpo and instead end up with guys like Whitner and Maybin. I know that there are regrets in every draft.. but in these 2 cases almost everyone with an opinion thought that the Bills should draft Ngata and Orakpo.

 

I know that was the old regime, but those draft mishaps are still fresh in every fan's mind. Its difficult to imagine anyone putting together a complete draft as an amateur because most fans have a job or family that takes up the majority of their time. NFL GM's can spend 10 hours a day watching tape and scouting players so of course they see more than the average fan.

 

I also disagree with the notion that you can just "watch games" and come up with a good idea of the talented players in the draft. Even if you spent all your free time watching college football, you wouldnt be able to watch every game for every team. Did any of you fans have a beat on Stevie Johnson before the bills drafted him? How about Kyle Williams? The late rounds are what really transforms a teams draft. There are 1st round busts every year and thats not going to change.

 

Dont be naive and think you can scout an entire draft pool from top to bottom as a fan. Its fine to have an opinion on the guys you do know. In fact thats what makes speculating about the draft so much fun. But lets not confuse round 1 with rounds 2-7. Thats a completely different animal.

[McBeane]

Who cares if the media does most of the work? I don't need to do all those things behind the scenes in order to form an educated opinion about a player's talent.

All I care about is determining whether players like Ryan Tannehill, Trent Richardson or Justin Blackmon are worth the hype they are getting.

 

Try doing these two things in your spare time:

1) Watch some games in college

2) Watch some actual game film (not highlights) of top prospects on websites like www.draftbreakdown.com and www.mainboard.com

 

 

The point is, there are a lot of regular football fans that know what they are talking about.

A lot of fans ON THIS BOARD were outraged when Buffalo took Donte Whitner instead of Haloti Ngata or Broderick Bunkley. A lot of fans ON THIS BOARD were dumfounded when Buffalo drafted Aaron Maybin instead of Brian Orakpo, Clay Matthews or Brian Cushing.

This was not hindsight. In all of these cases, the Bills would have been better off listening to a regular fan instead of their high-paid scouts.

 

May I just point out, because you seem to be unaware of this fact, but there are 6 rounds after the 1st, seeing as how the majority of players you have mentioned have been 1st rounders. Now add to that the fact that we have 8 picks after the 1st round and that is where the true scouting skill of the staff and GM shows. You keep bringing up these examples of 1st rounders that you knew were going to be good, but you fail to mention anything about anyone past the 1st round. If you are even half as good as you say you are, you would be able to talk at length about some of the more promising late round prospects that may turn into players down the road. If you could do this I would be absolutely shocked. Don't let your delusions of grandeur fool you into thinking that you are capable of evaluating an entire draft class of players plus UDFA's. There is a reason that there are only 32 such GM jobs in the world.

[PromoTheRobot]

I think its hard for fans to see us pass on talents like Ngata and Orakpo and instead end up with guys like Whitner and Maybin. I know that there are regrets in every draft.. but in these 2 cases almost everyone with an opinion thought that the Bills should draft Ngata and Orakpo.

 

I know that was the old regime, but those draft mishaps are still fresh in every fan's mind. Its difficult to imagine anyone putting together a complete draft as an amateur because most fans have a job or family that takes up the majority of their time. NFL GM's can spend 10 hours a day watching tape and scouting players so of course they see more than the average fan.

 

I also disagree with the notion that you can just "watch games" and come up with a good idea of the talented players in the draft. Even if you spent all your free time watching college football, you wouldnt be able to watch every game for every team. Did any of you fans have a beat on Stevie Johnson before the bills drafted him? How about Kyle Williams? The late rounds are what really transforms a teams draft. There are 1st round busts every year and thats not going to change.

 

Dont be naive and think you can scout an entire draft pool from top to bottom as a fan. Its fine to have an opinion on the guys you do know. In fact thats what makes speculating about the draft so much fun. But lets not confuse round 1 with rounds 2-7. Thats a completely different animal.

Fans have the luxury of throwing all the darts they want. NFL GMs only get one shot. Fans were "right" about Ngata and Orakpo. How right were they about Bowers, Clausen, Tebow, Leinert, etc?

 

PTR

[Kelly the Dog]

Fans have the luxury of throwing all the darts they want. NFL GMs only get one shot. Fans were "right" about Ngata and Orakpo. How right were they about Bowers, Clausen, Tebow, Leinert, etc?

 

PTR

Exactly. To me it's the same thing when someone says, "I knew that was gonna happen! I just had this feeling!"

 

Well, great, but how about those 1,000 other times you had that feeling and it didn't turn out to be true.

[mjt328]

Let see... You have been here a year and ...

 

In your first post you said Spiller will never live up to being a top ten pick.

#2 you said Fitz will never be anything and Sanchez is a big game QB.

#3 post was a winner. The question was of the first five players drafted, who will be the best. Here is your answer.

 

OK...

 

> Spiller has NOT lived up to being a top 10 pick in any way. He is going into this THIRD season and is still a backup. So I was right about that.

> Fitz hasn't done anything. Look at the Bills record with him at quarterback. Look at his stats. I was right about that.

> Not sure the quote I made about Sanchez, but I don't think I ever called him a big game QB. Maybe I talked about how he came up big in big games (the Jets made it to the championship game his first two seasons). Can't really comment unless I know what I said.

 

 

> Newton had dreadful mechanics in college. He was a risky pick that looks like it's going to work out. I'll admit that I was wrong about him.

> Miller was tremendous in college. I made the mistake of over-analyzing how his size would limit his effectiveness, especially in Denver's scheme.

> Dareus has been exactly what I said. Very good, but it doesn't show on the stat sheet. 5.5 sacks. I was right there.

> Green has not reached his potential yet, but I believe I called him a future Pro Bowler. I was right about him.

> Peterson looks EXACTLY like what I called. Good, but not great. He made more impact in 2010 as a returner.

 

 

With the exception of Cam Newton and to a certain extent, Von Miller, I fail to see your point.

[biggerdaddynj]

Can we please just pay attention to the actual post and stop dwelling on the last decade of poor drafting...The OP is close to 100% on this...PLEASE take a look at the drafts from the past two years (plus the UDFA signings)...Out of 18 picks they have yielded 14 Active Players and a couple PSers, most notably Jasper. Of those 14 their are 6 starters (2 of which have stepped up and filled in due to injury, but contributed well). I'm not saying that their is a mass amount of talent, but between the key pieces that plugged in and the depth type guys, I'd say that the last 2 drafts have ben pretty damn good. This is highlighted by the fact that all 9 picks last year are on the team, only one of whom is on the PS, Plus, we've yet to see what Easley can actually do. I'd say that is the definition of a paradigm shift, eh?

I second that emotion!!! As much as I like to play fantasy GM, Buddy has done us good (via FA and the draft). I expect another solid draft regardless of the order---OT, WR, OLB, CB, TE, etc...

[BEAST MODE BABY!]

Unless Nix picks a LT other than Kalil at 10 (and he won't even be there), it will surprise me. Nix has picked BPA available in round one since he got here, and unless every news outlet/draft source is wrong, Martin and Reiff will certainly not be BPA at 10.

 

But if he does pick either one of those guys at 10, I will find it perfectly acceptable since I trust Nix's judgment.

 

OK...

 

> Spiller has NOT lived up to being a top 10 pick in any way. He is going into this THIRD season and is still a backup. So I was right about that.

> Fitz hasn't done anything. Look at the Bills record with him at quarterback. Look at his stats. I was right about that.

> Not sure the quote I made about Sanchez, but I don't think I ever called him a big game QB. Maybe I talked about how he came up big in big games (the Jets made it to the championship game his first two seasons). Can't really comment unless I know what I said.

 

 

> Newton had dreadful mechanics in college. He was a risky pick that looks like it's going to work out. I'll admit that I was wrong about him.

> Miller was tremendous in college. I made the mistake of over-analyzing how his size would limit his effectiveness, especially in Denver's scheme.

> Dareus has been exactly what I said. Very good, but it doesn't show on the stat sheet. 5.5 sacks. I was right there.

> Green has not reached his potential yet, but I believe I called him a future Pro Bowler. I was right about him.

> Peterson looks EXACTLY like what I called. Good, but not great. He made more impact in 2010 as a returner.

 

 

With the exception of Cam Newton and to a certain extent, Von Miller, I fail to see your point.

 

Everyone else saw the point. You can't dig yourself out of a hole with a shovel.

Edited March 23, 2012 by BEAST MODE BABY!

[Armchair GM]

I could draft better and scout better.

Get yer own name Mr. Original

[Kelly the Dog]

OK...

 

> Spiller has NOT lived up to being a top 10 pick in any way. He is going into this THIRD season and is still a backup. So I was right about that.

> Fitz hasn't done anything. Look at the Bills record with him at quarterback. Look at his stats. I was right about that.

> Not sure the quote I made about Sanchez, but I don't think I ever called him a big game QB. Maybe I talked about how he came up big in big games (the Jets made it to the championship game his first two seasons). Can't really comment unless I know what I said.

 

 

> Newton had dreadful mechanics in college. He was a risky pick that looks like it's going to work out. I'll admit that I was wrong about him.

> Miller was tremendous in college. I made the mistake of over-analyzing how his size would limit his effectiveness, especially in Denver's scheme.

> Dareus has been exactly what I said. Very good, but it doesn't show on the stat sheet. 5.5 sacks. I was right there.

> Green has not reached his potential yet, but I believe I called him a future Pro Bowler. I was right about him.

> Peterson looks EXACTLY like what I called. Good, but not great. He made more impact in 2010 as a returner.

 

 

With the exception of Cam Newton and to a certain extent, Von Miller, I fail to see your point.

Are you delusional?

Cam Newton you were dead wrong.

Von Miller you were dead wrong, he was rookie of the year and was great in a 4-3.

Marcel Dareus you were dead wrong, 43 tackles and 5.5 sacks for a rookie DT are EXCELLENT stats

AJ Green didn't take 2-3 years, he was a pro bowl starter as a rookie.

Patrick Peterson you have been right on so far as he got burnt a lot as a rookie.

 

1 out of 5 is really good though.

And here is your quote about Sanchez, "And while it can't always be put on the quarterback, it seemed that Sanchez came up big in big games."

[DrDawkinstein]

Say what you will about Modrak and past administrations, but anyone claiming to be a better talent evaluator than BUDDY NIX... I will laugh right in your face. That's all there is to it.

[hondo in seattle]

As an amateur, I often did a better job scouting talent than Russ Brandon, Marv Levy and Tom Donahoe. So yeah, it's going to take some time for me to completely trust Buddy Nix and his decision-making. He's been a mixed bag so far.

 

Honestly, I don't think it's that hard to spot talent - even if you are just a fan. I think these scouts and "experts" overthink themselves, when 95% of the time it comes down to production on the field. Not combine numbers, Wonderlic scores and pro days. Just some examples:

 

> Coming out of college, I felt that Bryant McKinnie was a better LT prospect than Mike Williams. But our front office went for size over talent. I was right. They were wrong.

> When we let Pat Williams go in free agency, I made the comment that it was "the beginning of the end" for our dominant defense. It's been downhill ever since.

> I saw JP Losman as a first-round reach and Willis McGahee is a wasted pick that would force us to trade Travis Henry. I was right in both cases.

> If I was drafting instead of Marv Levy and Russ Brandon, we would have grabbed Haloti Ngata and Brian Orakpo instead of Donte Whitner and Aaron Maybin. I also thought Patrick Willis and Adrian Peterson were two of the rare players worth trading up for.

 

 

I hated Nix's first draft (Spiller, Troup, Carrington, etc.) and his first year of free agent pickups (Dwan Edwards, Andre Davis). Two seasons later, we've got almost nothing to show from those additions to the team. Last year, I felt Nix did a lot better job - particularly in drafting Marcel Dareus and nabbing Nick Barnett in free agency. Lo and behold, they were our two best pickups.

For the record, I liked us drafting Aaron Williams and Kelvin Sheppard, but I preferred us taking Ryan Mallett in either the 2nd or 3rd round. We will see how that pans out.

 

Using a few anecdotes from the top of the draft to prove you can evaluate talent isn't a compelling argument. Any NFL fan can say they were right about this or that pick when the establishment was wrong.

 

Here's a tougher test. Could any of us fans actually act as a GM and run drafts year after year that added more talent to the team than the NFL average? The answer, without question, is no.

[Coach Tuesday]

C,j, spiller is shaping up to be a great pick....end of the day Lynch foundd new life in seattle, and Fred jackson in rb years should be dead....

 

There is a difference between a great pick and a great player. JPP would've been the better pick and would've saved Ralph $100 million freakin' dollars.

[papazoid]

the collective brain power of TBD is far superior to any one man.....

[JPS]

If Mike Mayock, Noloan Nawrocki, Mel Kiper and Charley Casserley conspired to say any player had short arms, was too slow and had character issues, 99% of the people on this board would "change their grade".

 

Translated: reading other people's opinions and watching youtube highlights is fun, but it doesn't make you a scout.

 

Don't kid yourself.

[deep2evans]

There is nothing funnier than when folks on this board claim to have "watched the tape" on a player.

 

No, you didn't...you don't have access to it. What you did was either (a) watch highlights on youtube, (b) watch a small film segment cut up by a TV analyst, © watch a few games while he was in college, or (d) not watch him at all.

 

Any of the above amount to absolutely nothing in my opinion.

 

That said, there's nothing wrong with having an opinion, just remember that that's all it is. Don't be like the dogmatic know-it-all's that say things like: "there's no way so-and-so can be successful in the NFL, it's impossible", which we read throughout last April.

 

Okay, I'm done ranting now.

 

haha. totally on point.

[Ramius]

Who cares if the media does most of the work? I don't need to do all those things behind the scenes in order to form an educated opinion about a player's talent.

All I care about is determining whether players like Ryan Tannehill, Trent Richardson or Justin Blackmon are worth the hype they are getting.

 

Try doing these two things in your spare time:

1) Watch some games in college

2) Watch some actual game film (not highlights) of top prospects on websites like www.draftbreakdown.com and www.mainboard.com

 

 

The point is, there are a lot of regular football fans that know what they are talking about.

A lot of fans ON THIS BOARD were outraged when Buffalo took Donte Whitner instead of Haloti Ngata or Broderick Bunkley. A lot of fans ON THIS BOARD were dumfounded when Buffalo drafted Aaron Maybin instead of Brian Orakpo, Clay Matthews or Brian Cushing.

This was not hindsight. In all of these cases, the Bills would have been better off listening to a regular fan instead of their high-paid scouts.

 

so when you're "scouting" players via youtube, feel free to explain to me how you know what each and every player's assignments were on a given play, and whether or not they fulfilled their assignment. You say "look, there's a safety getting late over to the play, he sucks and is slow to react." The real NFL scouts say, "the safety was assigned to play a deep half and to double the X WR, and he's got the closing speed to get all the way across the field and make the tackle on the Z WR."

 

There is a difference between a great pick and a great player. JPP would've been the better pick and would've saved Ralph $100 million freakin' dollars.

 

Revisionist history at it's finest. JPP was considered a highly questionable pick, as he was a one-year wonder out of a lower level school in a crappy conference who left school early. But now, everyone "knew" that he was awesome and the Bills should have drafted him.

[hondo in seattle]

Fans have the luxury of throwing all the darts they want. NFL GMs only get one shot. Fans were "right" about Ngata and Orakpo. How right were they about Bowers, Clausen, Tebow, Leinert, etc?

 

PTR

 

+1

 

We've seen lots of college names championed here over the years by draftniks. Most of these names have quickly faded into obscurity.

 

Draftniks are like Edgar Cayce. They like to celebrate the one or two predictions they got right and forget the many dozen they whiffed on.

[deep2evans]

i agree with the dissenters, but only a little.

 

this quote from earlier in the thread..

 

If for the last 15 years, the Bills had simply grabbed virtually ANY draft magazine off the newstand, and followed it's "Big Board", they would have had way more talent on the roster.

 

..unfortunately is true. under nix, not so much - but over the past 10 years, if we had any knowledgeable fan drafting, we'd probably have 3-4 more starters, 2 or 3 of which could have been all-pros (Ngata comes to mind specifically).

 

it sucks that we had so many busts with OBVIOUS studs staring us in the face, and you can't blame some fans for still being a little hesitant to trust the organization 100%. it's almost a slap in the face when you have guys like ngata and orakpo RIGHT THERE and you take little dipsh!ts like Whitner and Maybin instead. it's insulting. however, the 2011 looks spectacular and i trust Nix all the way. hope he knocks this one out of the park.

[hondo in seattle]

As some of you know me, you know I coached 5 years in high school and 12 years at the JC level. Two years ago we had over 100 guys on the team and almost all of them had some talent but being at the JC level there are way more issues with size, speed, and especially character.There is pressure to pick the right guys even at that level. You are basically scouting and watching film albeit at a much smaller scale but some of you guys don't really understand.. I am NOT NEARLY qualified to be a scout at the pro level but I know several that do/have and you guys really don't know what u are talking about if you think you have the skill set to do what these guys do. If you showed up @Texas A&M's practice and went over to the linemen what exactly would you be looking for ,hmmm? My son is coaching and scouting JC.HS player for a FCS Div. achool and he is looking at tape, cutting tape about 12-16 hours a day EVERYDAY

 

Bottom line yeah teams mke big mistakes and the Bills have made plenty and it's great that we share our opinionsbut if you have a skilled type job then i can't do yours and you can'd do Buddy's.

 

I'm with you. Scouts are hired in the first place because they really know this business. After being hired they spend ungodly hours analyzing tape, interviewing coaches, interviewing players, etc. Somebody who does this as a hobby just can't compete.

 

It's both arrogant and insulting for us to think we can do a GM's or scout's job.

 

If any of us were really that smart, some team would pay us. But good luck to anyone here trying to find a job as a scout.

[Reed83HOF]

I did mean only Nix. I do think I could draft as good as Dick Jauron and Russ Brandon.

 

I also think there is a ton of luck, both good and bad, on making the right choices, especially in the first round. And few GMs on any team are consistently right. Plus a player drafted on Team A with good players and coaches around him is going to turn into a far better player in all likelihood than he would on a team with crappy coaching and players.

 

But this thread was about Nix studying tape, watching players perform in person, listening to his scouts and making good selections overall, all the way down the line in the draft.

 

This is a great post Kelly. Aside from rebuilding the football side of the front office, Nix has done something that hasn't been done since Butler was our GM and that is actually scouting the players, going to games and workouts and making informed decisions of his own on players. He has people feeding him information and he goes and looks with his own eyes to remove any bias of the scout. That is huge.

 

You can't go back and look at past drafts to really see how good they are, because the football side of the operation has been revamped. New scouts, Modrak/Guy gone, Whaley brought in. Their first real draft was last year. 2010 was most likely a mix of Modrak's board and what Buddy knew. I have faith we will grab the BPA for our team. Buddy doesn't like to trade up or down, he covets value, but also has the balls to say if this is the guy we want - we are going to get him. If he is going to be a player it doesn't matter where he is drafted if he is going to help our team; so what if we took a guy 2 spots higher than a mock said.

 

Here is Nix before the 2011 draft answering questions, this gives a lot of insight to Buddy's draft process:

 

They also say this at the end of the Article

 

"The Bills are more concerned with drafting run-stuffers than pass rushers, which leads me to think that they are keying in on Martez Wilson or Kelvin Sheppard." Shepp was drafted to be our run stuffing LB...

 

Bleacher report slideshow

 

Some highlights:

 

On reaching for a QB in the 2nd round: I think people do reach at QB in the second round. Worst thing you can do is take a guy because of need at a position he isn't ready to play. That can set you back three years.

 

n the transition to 3-4 defensive scheme: Big part of what we do is projecting a guy to a different position. A good example of that from last year was Arthur Moats.

 

On the offensive line: Think we need another tackle. A guy that either will be a rookie or a veteran we get in free agency, whenever that starts, we'd like to get one more tackle.

 

On stopping the run: Right now for us it is more important for us to stop the run. You won't get where you want to be unless we can stop the run. Then, we need to rush the passer better.

 

On trading on draft day: It would be determined by how far down you have to move. I wouldn't rule out anything. There will be a guy that we really want at three, I think we will go ahead and draft him.

 

On drafting a player at a position that appears to be set: You can't have too many good football players. As long as we really put good players on our team, we will keep getting better.

On Von Miller: if he is best guy on our board at # 3, and he is still there, I wouldn't pass on him due to the current linebackers that we already have on the roster.

 

On how many draft picks will be starters: Some guys will start but most will be in some sort of a rotation with other players.

 

On expectations for the third pick: We hope with our pick at number three that we get at least a starter or someone that can play at least 40 snaps a game.

 

On cornerbacks in the draft class: This is not a great year for cornerbacks overall.

 

On why draft picks turn out to be a bust: On why draft picks can become a bust: There are three phases to the draft picks. First phase is the personnel. Are they athletic, are they intelligent and did they produce? Second phase is the coaching they got and will get, strength coaching, working with team trainers and doctors. Third phase is are they willing to be a professional at work every day at getting better. You could nail two of the three phases, but if they blow up in just one of the three phases then you have a busted draft pick.

 

On Nick Fairley: Is he a one-year wonder? It appears that there are quite a few one-year wonder types in this draft class. Nick Fairley is the best interior pass rusher that I have seen in the past few years coming out of college. We would have preferred that he played three or four years at a major college, but he didn't. You also wonder what will happen to him when he gets a lot of money. Will the work ethic start to tail off?