Who genuinely thinks they can scout college talent better than Nix?

[dpberr]

I am reminded of the big push by folks for DaQuan Bowers, Cam Jordan and Blaine Gabbert on this board last year.

 

I like Nix's strategy in avoiding a one way ticket to Bustville: No one year wonders, pick players from winning programs that didn't stack their schedule with creampuff opponents.

 

To think about serious options at #10, consider only the players that have 3+ years of steady and increased production. Then take a look at the programs the players come from.

 

The Nix Way gets you a bunch of singles and doubles like Spiller and the occasional home run in Dareus, but never a strikeout like Maybin.

Edited March 23, 2012 by dpberr

[shibuya]

I'm laughing some Bills fans are so full of themselves

[JohnC]

Well, there is that minor little detail that the entire scouting department has been revamped in the past 1.5 years.

 

You have brought up the most critical reason why this organization seems to be moving in the right direction since Nix took over the football operation. What it comes down to is that he upgraded the organizational structure through the staffing and it appears he has installed a rational and coherent decision-making process.

 

Let's look at some of the changes from the prior regimes. John Guy is let go. Modrak is let go. Whaley is brought in from the Pittsburgh organization. Gailey is hired. A new head of college scouting is brought in from KC. Gibbons is brought in from San Diego to scout the pros.

 

He set up a roadmap as to how this franchise is going to be operated. Focus on the draft and then develop and retain your own players. Retaining players such as Stevie Johnson, Williams, Scott etc. Where he has done a superb job is in the pro scouting area. Rhinehart, Chandler, Pears, Urbik, Hagans etc are all good examples of getting good value for pro pickups.

 

In general, the Bills' organization is now professionally run. There is no year to year desperate personnel moves. A TO one year marketing acquisition is an example of that expedient mentality. Another good example is letting LB Paul P go when the contract offer was too rich. That decision was a demonstration that he had a good grasp on the value/talent relationship. There is a maturity and an order on how the operation is run. Nix deserves the credit for the positive change in how the franchise functions.

Edited March 23, 2012 by JohnC

[mjt328]

As an amateur, I often did a better job scouting talent than Russ Brandon, Marv Levy and Tom Donahoe. So yeah, it's going to take some time for me to completely trust Buddy Nix and his decision-making. He's been a mixed bag so far.

 

Honestly, I don't think it's that hard to spot talent - even if you are just a fan. I think these scouts and "experts" overthink themselves, when 95% of the time it comes down to production on the field. Not combine numbers, Wonderlic scores and pro days. Just some examples:

 

> Coming out of college, I felt that Bryant McKinnie was a better LT prospect than Mike Williams. But our front office went for size over talent. I was right. They were wrong.

> When we let Pat Williams go in free agency, I made the comment that it was "the beginning of the end" for our dominant defense. It's been downhill ever since.

> I saw JP Losman as a first-round reach and Willis McGahee is a wasted pick that would force us to trade Travis Henry. I was right in both cases.

> If I was drafting instead of Marv Levy and Russ Brandon, we would have grabbed Haloti Ngata and Brian Orakpo instead of Donte Whitner and Aaron Maybin. I also thought Patrick Willis and Adrian Peterson were two of the rare players worth trading up for.

 

 

I hated Nix's first draft (Spiller, Troup, Carrington, etc.) and his first year of free agent pickups (Dwan Edwards, Andre Davis). Two seasons later, we've got almost nothing to show from those additions to the team. Last year, I felt Nix did a lot better job - particularly in drafting Marcel Dareus and nabbing Nick Barnett in free agency. Lo and behold, they were our two best pickups.

For the record, I liked us drafting Aaron Williams and Kelvin Sheppard, but I preferred us taking Ryan Mallett in either the 2nd or 3rd round. We will see how that pans out.

[Coach Tuesday]

Nix's first draft landed several backups and several washouts. A lot of talent (JPP, Gronkowski) was left on the table. To be fair, his scouting department was in transition during that draft, and it's not clear whether Nix was the one who assembled the board.

 

Nix's second draft was what I consider a complete homerun.

 

So although it's a small sample size, he's trending up, and I agree that whomever he picks at 10 should be given the benefit of the doubt.

[Dopey]

I could do better with my one hand tied behind my back. For example, if you had Marshall Lynch and Fred Jackson on your roster, WHY IN THE H_LL would you draft CJ Spiller ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? DAAAAAA!

He couldn't screw up last year because when you have the 3rd pick everyone in America knows who the top 5 blue chippers are. You just draft the guy everyone agrees is worthy of going that high.

Did you like the rest of last years fraft?

 

Ok. How is this? No, I don't necessarily think I can scout college talent better than Nix, but I do think I can draft as well as he can.

Are you drunk??? :beer:

 

You can't scout as well as Nix, but somehow you can draft as well as he does.WOW!!

Happy Friday all.Lets all get this drunk. First weekend of spring and all.

[DanInUticaTampa]

You're either really simplistic, or disingenuous. Obviously, it would be more than one or two drafts. I used "15 years" (would you prefer 5?), and over a reasonable time period (whats the length of a typical GM's career?), I think the "big board" would be better than what the Bills have put together.

 

But that has nothing to do with what the thread is about. Like, nothing. Nix has only had two drafts, anything else than his two drafts have no place with the topic at hand. This thread wasn't titled "can you scout better than the guys we fired."

[JPS]

Ok. How is this? No, I don't necessarily think I can scout college talent better than Nix, but I do think I can draft as well as he can.

My god.....based on what? Other people's opinions? Draft guides? CBS Sportsline? You have no clue. Neither do I for that matter. We just read opinions from people based on wildly varying degrees of actual knowledge. Don't kid yourself. You didn't even know who half the Bills draftees were until their names was called.

[boyst]

How many people here were calling for the Bills to sign TE Scott Chandler? I think more folks thought it was a dumpster dive. How did that turn out? You can ask the same about Pears, Urbik and Reinhardt.

 

PTR

Id never heard of them! They couldn't have been that good, they have yet to make the ProBowl. You know, we had Jason Peters! Why did we ever trade him? Yeah, Scott Chandler, isn't he like Reimersma? We should have got Gronk and never got Spiller, and kept Lynch, why did we not get Vincent Jackson? This team is awful, free agents wont respect us, flat out it is because Ralph is cheap and only no namers come here and never produce!

 

 

[/stupid]

 

I wonder when it'll all change and we are a team wondering about the hair style of our all pro QB who took us to a bunch of super Bowls? Will we ever be happy?

[RealityCheck]

Lots of arrogance in this thread. Perhaps a new thread is warranted. My question would be this. Who is willing to pay you as much as $1000.00 in a calendar year for your opinions on personnel decisions in any sport and at any level? If your wasting your talents away in your current day job then I think that is incredibly tragic and a lesson in true failure to all the kids out there.

[eball]

As an amateur, I often did a better job scouting talent than Russ Brandon, Marv Levy and Tom Donahoe. So yeah, it's going to take some time for me to completely trust Buddy Nix and his decision-making. He's been a mixed bag so far.

 

Honestly, I don't think it's that hard to spot talent - even if you are just a fan. I think these scouts and "experts" overthink themselves, when 95% of the time it comes down to production on the field. Not combine numbers, Wonderlic scores and pro days. Just some examples:

 

> Coming out of college, I felt that Bryant McKinnie was a better LT prospect than Mike Williams. But our front office went for size over talent. I was right. They were wrong.

> When we let Pat Williams go in free agency, I made the comment that it was "the beginning of the end" for our dominant defense. It's been downhill ever since.

> I saw JP Losman as a first-round reach and Willis McGahee is a wasted pick that would force us to trade Travis Henry. I was right in both cases.

> If I was drafting instead of Marv Levy and Russ Brandon, we would have grabbed Haloti Ngata and Brian Orakpo instead of Donte Whitner and Aaron Maybin. I also thought Patrick Willis and Adrian Peterson were two of the rare players worth trading up for.

 

 

I hated Nix's first draft (Spiller, Troup, Carrington, etc.) and his first year of free agent pickups (Dwan Edwards, Andre Davis). Two seasons later, we've got almost nothing to show from those additions to the team. Last year, I felt Nix did a lot better job - particularly in drafting Marcel Dareus and nabbing Nick Barnett in free agency. Lo and behold, they were our two best pickups.

For the record, I liked us drafting Aaron Williams and Kelvin Sheppard, but I preferred us taking Ryan Mallett in either the 2nd or 3rd round. We will see how that pans out.

This is all well and good in retrospect. Please tell us your top five "nuggets" from this year's draft class (that are relevant to where the Bills will be selecting) and we'll come back to assess your brilliance at a later date.

[Alphadawg7]

I'm not blaming the current "regime", I know they didn't handle the last 15 drafts. The point is, virtually anyone could draft better than what this organization has typically done, and it wouldn't take much for ANYONE to put together a reasonable draft given the sheer amount of player scouting reports available to the public. I like Chanix, and expect them to do a good job. No need to overthink it, just don't bungle it! (It's silly to do what the Lions did, and repeatedly select WR's, just because the drafts unfolded in such a way that WR's were at the top of the board.)

 

The Lions didnt just select a WR several times in the first because thats just who happened to be left at the top of the board. The Lions desperately needed a WR when they drafted those WR's during the run when they brought in rogers, williams, and williams. At that time, only Williams had worked out even a little bit as the other two were busts. Then comes along Calvin who was the best wr prospect coming out of college in a decade and they still needed a wr.

[Rubes]

Everyone's a stud at evaluating the first round of a draft. Beyond that, it's probably too much trouble to stay interested.

[Lurker]

I hated Nix's first draft (Spiller, Troup, Carrington, etc.) and his first year of free agent pickups (Dwan Edwards, Andre Davis).

Buddy was hired as a national scout on January 26, 2009 (after being out of the NFL for a bit) and didn't become GM until January 3, 2010. I wonder if the late start coupled with a subpar scouting staff had anything to do with that first draft...

[thebandit27]

There is nothing funnier than when folks on this board claim to have "watched the tape" on a player.

 

No, you didn't...you don't have access to it. What you did was either (a) watch highlights on youtube, (b) watch a small film segment cut up by a TV analyst, © watch a few games while he was in college, or (d) not watch him at all.

 

Any of the above amount to absolutely nothing in my opinion.

 

That said, there's nothing wrong with having an opinion, just remember that that's all it is. Don't be like the dogmatic know-it-all's that say things like: "there's no way so-and-so can be successful in the NFL, it's impossible", which we read throughout last April.

 

Okay, I'm done ranting now.

[playman]

So if at the time of the Bills selection, Richardson is the BPA, you are okay with the Bills taking him?

 

i strongly believe in this case we will get an offer we cant refuse

[prissythecat]

This is all well and good in retrospect. Please tell us your top five "nuggets" from this year's draft class (that are relevant to where the Bills will be selecting) and we'll come back to assess your brilliance at a later date.

 

 

It seems we have too many self appointed draft gurus who have a grossly simplified notion of what actually goes into scouting and drafting.

[finknottle]

No you can't. Try it. Name the players in this years draft that will be selected in the first four rounds and lets all see how you do with that. Last year Buddy selected Dareus, Williams, Sheppard, and Hairston in the first four rounds. The first three are going into their second years as starters. The fourth is a potential starter.

 

Go ahead big talker. Try it. If you do, I'll be watching who the Bills pick and begin a thread comparing the Bills' pick to yours. After the 2012 season, I'll revisit your selections, again compare them to Buddy's, and we'll all see how your picks stack up. Are you up for this Mathews' Bag?

 

As an aside, I'm sick of the annual debate over franchise quarterbacks, who has them and who doesn't, are they neccessary for superbowl championships, and whether you need to draft them high. Everybody picks their examples to suit their arguments, and it seems like only yesterday people were pointing to Sanchez as the latest up-and-comer... I've been thinking of starting a thread to have our experts go on record as to who is and is not a franchise quarterbacks, and look at the results in three years.

Edited March 23, 2012 by finknottle

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

How many people here were calling for the Bills to sign TE Scott Chandler? I think more folks thought it was a dumpster dive. How did that turn out? You can ask the same about Pears, Urbik and Reinhardt.

 

PTR

As some of you know me, you know I coached 5 years in high school and 12 years at the JC level. Two years ago we had over 100 guys on the team and almost all of them had some talent but being at the JC level there are way more issues with size, speed, and especially character.There is pressure to pick the right guys even at that level. You are basically scouting and watching film albeit at a much smaller scale but some of you guys don't really understand.. I am NOT NEARLY qualified to be a scout at the pro level but I know several that do/have and you guys really don't know what u are talking about if you think you have the skill set to do what these guys do. If you showed up @Texas A&M's practice and went over to the linemen what exactly would you be looking for ,hmmm? My son is coaching and scouting JC.HS player for a FCS Div. achool and he is looking at tape, cutting tape about 12-16 hours a day EVERYDAY

 

Bottom line yeah teams mke big mistakes and the Bills have made plenty and it's great that we share our opinionsbut if you have a skilled type job then i can't do yours and you can'd do Buddy's.

[mjt328]

This is all well and good in retrospect. Please tell us your top five "nuggets" from this year's draft class (that are relevant to where the Bills will be selecting) and we'll come back to assess your brilliance at a later date.

 

I know I might sound cocky and arrogant, but I honestly don't think it's that hard to spot NFL talent.

To answer your post, I haven't decided yet who I think the Bills should draft at #10. Some of the players I would consider at that spot are Dre Kirkpatrick, Michael Floyd and Riley Reiff.

 

 

> Kirkpatrick reminds me of Antoine Winfield. He isn't going to show up on the highlight reel every week, but he's very solid in coverage and an excellent tackler. With all the dink-and-dunk offenses around the NFL, I think he would be a valuable addition.

> Floyd is an excellent all-around recevier, who would be the perfect addition to this offense. I especially like his ability to go up high and get the ball on deep passes, but he's also good at short and intermediate routes.

> Reiff's success in this league will depend on his ability to add strength and get better using his hands. If he can't do that, he's going to be a right tackle in the NFL.

 

 

 

Some of the players that I don't like (who have been discussed as our picks at #10) are Ryan Tannehill, Jonathan Martin, Stephen Hill, Quinton Coples and Courtney Upshaw.

 

> Tannehill is going to be a middle of the road quarterback in this league. Somebody is going to invest a high first round or high second round pick on him, and it won't be worth it.

> Martin struggles to hold blocks at the second level and gets beat too easily by good pass rushers. He's got the frame scouts like, though, so he'll get picked somewhere on day one.

> Stephen Hill has all the intangibles you look for - speed, size, hands - but he just doesn't have enough production. There has to be a reason that his college career was so unspectacular.

> Coples doesn't have the speed or moves to get around the edge. He can be a solid 3-4 end, but he will disappoint as a 4-3 pass rusher.

> Upshaw might have some success as a 3-4 outside linebacker, but I hate his overall effort on the field. He doesn't chase down plays and is inconsistent as a pass rusher.

 

 

For the record, I'm torn on Melvin Ingram. I think he's an incredible athlete and decent pass rusher. I just wouldn't take him at #10 and I don't think he fits our defensive scheme.