Who genuinely thinks they can scout college talent better than Nix?

[Kelly the Dog]

Sure, he has/will make mistakes evaluating and drafting players, although a lot less mistakes than you.

 

The point of this is only to say that after much thought on who I want the Bills to draft, I've concluded that if they draft ANY Left Tackle at #10, I will be thrilled, regardless of the player, because that means Nix and his Bills scouts absolutely loved this guy. They are not going to take a LT if they don't, even if they really like him as a prospect. So it means if they take Reiff or Adams or Zebrie Sanders over my choice at the moment. Jonathan Martin, I'll be thrilled they didn't take Jonathan Martin because they think the guy they took at LT is better than Martin, and that's okay with me, because I really don't believe I can tell which LT pro prospect is more likely to be a top quality starter.

 

Especially if we sign Mark Anderson, I want an LT (unless we re-sign Bell and then I still wouldn't mind an LT at 10 or in round 2). I watch video and read scouting reports and hear arguments pro and con from all kinds of good and bad sources and I have my strong opinions about players being better or worse than others. I will especially love if I hear Jonathan Martin's name called out at #10 because that means I got my LT and Nix and the scouts agreed with me. But I will be happy with any name, and immediately think he is likely (but not certainly) going to be better than Martin.

 

This isn't to say pre-draft fan grading is a waste of time, it's fun as hell. And I could ultimately be right on Martin four years from now even if Nix picks Adams or Reiff or anyone else available at LT at #10. But I really do not believe that if the Bills choose a different guy than my guy, that it was a huge mistake, and they will rue the day they chose Reiff or Sanders or Adams over what was staring them right in the face, the obvious choice of Jonathan Martin.

 

As a caveat, I just happen to think Martin will be very good, from what I have seen myself, read and heard. It's not like he is well above other prospects, they all seem to have their strengths and weaknesses. He is a shade above the others, IMO, with the best chance of being a franchise LT.

 

Caveat #2, even though I really want a LT, I would not at all be disappointed if they chose Michael Floyd because he does two things: 1] He fits an immediate need of a big, fast #2 WR who can stretch the field and make plays, opening up the field for all of the various weapons AND 2] at the same time, he has a chance to be an absolute star and stud #1 WR down the line. Not many guys at any position in this draft would start right away on the Bills and have all the tools you need to be a star in this league, and Floyd has all the tools. Kirkpatrick probably wouldn't start day one. So we get immediate benefit, can plug Floyd in right away, and if we get lucky, we have a star on our hands alongside Stevie.

Edited March 21, 2012 by Kelly the Dog

[TheKidd]

I could do better with my one hand tied behind my back. For example, if you had Marshall Lynch and Fred Jackson on your roster, WHY IN THE H_LL would you draft CJ Spiller ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? DAAAAAA!

He couldn't screw up last year because when you have the 3rd pick everyone in America knows who the top 5 blue chippers are. You just draft the guy everyone agrees is worthy of going that high.

[Geno Smith's Arm]

If for the last 15 years, the Bills had simply grabbed virtually ANY draft magazine off the newstand, and followed it's "Big Board", they would have had way more talent on the roster.

[KRT88]

How the Bills have drafted RB's over the past decade makes everyone question the drafting and scouting department, Nix or whomever in charge. Then throw in a Mayben, drafting safeties at #8, trading up for Losman but showing reluctance to aggressive move ahead of Pittsburgh for Big Ben. We all have plenty of evidence to be scared when the Bills turn in the card!

[playman]

spiller was BPA. dareus was BPA. this year it will be BPA.

 

the old regimes have done poor, sure. and chix havent hit on every pick.

 

but i like the approach and it will pay off.

 

unlike "popular" picks like gabbert for example.

[richNjoisy]

well, "kelly", this thread is definitely one reason you have to ask yourself, "why did I even bother"?

 

sigh

 

In any event, Enjoy the draft. I will!

[Hazed and Amuzed]

I could do better with my one hand tied behind my back. For example, if you had Marshall Lynch and Fred Jackson on your roster, WHY IN THE H_LL would you draft CJ Spiller ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? DAAAAAA!

He couldn't screw up last year because when you have the 3rd pick everyone in America knows who the top 5 blue chippers are. You just draft the guy everyone agrees is worthy of going that high.

Who is Marshall Lynch? You lost me at that.

 

If for the last 15 years, the Bills had simply grabbed virtually ANY draft magazine off the newstand, and followed it's "Big Board", they would have had way more talent on the roster.

This is a different regime and the CJ pick is looking good at this point, especially is Fred goes down again.

 

How the Bills have drafted RB's over the past decade makes everyone question the drafting and scouting department, Nix or whomever in charge. Then throw in a Mayben, drafting safeties at #8, trading up for Losman but showing reluctance to aggressive move ahead of Pittsburgh for Big Ben. We all have plenty of evidence to be scared when the Bills turn in the card!

See above.

 

 

Kelly, great post. It feels great to trust to FO again doesn't it.

[Geno Smith's Arm]

Who is Marshall Lynch? You lost me at that.

 

 

This is a different regime and the CJ pick is looking good at this point, especially is Fred goes down again.

 

 

See above.

 

 

Kelly, great post. It feels great to trust to FO again doesn't it.

 

I'm not blaming the current "regime", I know they didn't handle the last 15 drafts. The point is, virtually anyone could draft better than what this organization has typically done, and it wouldn't take much for ANYONE to put together a reasonable draft given the sheer amount of player scouting reports available to the public. I like Chanix, and expect them to do a good job. No need to overthink it, just don't bungle it! (It's silly to do what the Lions did, and repeatedly select WR's, just because the drafts unfolded in such a way that WR's were at the top of the board.)

[DanInUticaTampa]

I'm not blaming the current "regime", I know they didn't handle the last 15 drafts. The point is, virtually anyone could draft better than what this organization has typically done, and it wouldn't take much for ANYONE to put together a reasonable draft given the sheer amount of player scouting reports available to the public. I like Chanix, and expect them to do a good job. No need to overthink it, just don't bungle it! (It's silly to do what the Lions did, and repeatedly select WR's, just because the drafts unfolded in such a way that WR's were at the top of the board.)

 

Well, I think bringing up the last 15 years is a little off topic. I think Kelly meant to discuss who can scout/evaluate better than nix (not so much making draft picks, but scouting).

[Ramius]

How the Bills have drafted RB's over the past decade makes everyone question the drafting and scouting department, Nix or whomever in charge. Then throw in a Mayben, drafting safeties at #8, trading up for Losman but showing reluctance to aggressive move ahead of Pittsburgh for Big Ben. We all have plenty of evidence to be scared when the Bills turn in the card!

 

Well, there is that minor little detail that the entire scouting department has been revamped in the past 1.5 years.

[Geno Smith's Arm]

Well, I think bringing up the last 15 years is a little off topic. I think Kelly meant to discuss who can scout/evaluate better than nix (not so much making draft picks, but scouting).

Ok. How is this? No, I don't necessarily think I can scout college talent better than Nix, but I do think I can draft as well as he can.

[DanInUticaTampa]

So if we went by your strategy, and the bills grabbed espn magazine, followed kiper's big board, instead of drafting spiller, we would have drafted..... Clausen! Oh yes, WAY more talent if the nix stopped scouting and just followed the big board from a magazine

[LabattBlue]

spiller was BPA. dareus was BPA. this year it will be BPA.

 

the old regimes have done poor, sure. and chix havent hit on every pick.

 

but i like the approach and it will pay off.

 

unlike "popular" picks like gabbert for example.

So if at the time of the Bills selection, Richardson is the BPA, you are okay with the Bills taking him?

[DanInUticaTampa]

Hahaha, I think that every year when bpa is brotught up. If we did draft Richardson, the board would just go nuts

[PromoTheRobot]

It kills me how some people think you can move up or down at will in the draft. Like the other team is obligated to swap picks if you ask.

 

PTR

[Geno Smith's Arm]

So if we went by your strategy, and the bills grabbed espn magazine, followed kiper's big board, instead of drafting spiller, we would have drafted..... Clausen! Oh yes, WAY more talent if the nix stopped scouting and just followed the big board from a magazine

You're either really simplistic, or disingenuous. Obviously, it would be more than one or two drafts. I used "15 years" (would you prefer 5?), and over a reasonable time period (whats the length of a typical GM's career?), I think the "big board" would be better than what the Bills have put together.

[Armchair GM]

Can we please just pay attention to the actual post and stop dwelling on the last decade of poor drafting...The OP is close to 100% on this...PLEASE take a look at the drafts from the past two years (plus the UDFA signings)...Out of 18 picks they have yielded 14 Active Players and a couple PSers, most notably Jasper. Of those 14 their are 6 starters (2 of which have stepped up and filled in due to injury, but contributed well). I'm not saying that their is a mass amount of talent, but between the key pieces that plugged in and the depth type guys, I'd say that the last 2 drafts have ben pretty damn good. This is highlighted by the fact that all 9 picks last year are on the team, only one of whom is on the PS, Plus, we've yet to see what Easley can actually do. I'd say that is the definition of a paradigm shift, eh?

[PromoTheRobot]

How many people here were calling for the Bills to sign TE Scott Chandler? I think more folks thought it was a dumpster dive. How did that turn out? You can ask the same about Pears, Urbik and Reinhardt.

 

PTR

[Geno Smith's Arm]

Can we please just pay attention to the actual post and stop dwelling on the last decade of poor drafting...The OP is close to 100% on this...PLEASE take a look at the drafts from the past two years (plus the UDFA signings)...Out of 18 picks they have yielded 14 Active Players and a couple PSers, most notably Jasper. Of those 14 their are 6 starters (2 of which have stepped up and filled in due to injury, but contributed well). I'm not saying that their is a mass amount of talent, but between the key pieces that plugged in and the depth type guys, I'd say that the last 2 drafts have ben pretty damn good. This is highlighted by the fact that all 9 picks last year are on the team, only one of whom is on the PS, Plus, we've yet to see what Easley can actually do. I'd say that is the definition of a paradigm shift, eh?

I love what they are doing. What I am alluding to, is that a truly competent GM SHOULD have these kinds of drafts. The draft is designed to give teams with poor records an advantage. They aren't really finding an extraordinary number of gems, they are just getting value from their picks. I don't necessarily think that if they just followed a compilation of the draftniks big boards that the team would be any better or worse!

Edited March 23, 2012 by Matthews' Bag

[Cheddar's Dad]

Ok. How is this? No, I don't necessarily think I can scout college talent better than Nix, but I do think I can draft as well as he can.

 

No you can't. Try it. Name the players in this years draft that will be selected in the first four rounds and lets all see how you do with that. Last year Buddy selected Dareus, Williams, Sheppard, and Hairston in the first four rounds. The first three are going into their second years as starters. The fourth is a potential starter.

 

Go ahead big talker. Try it. If you do, I'll be watching who the Bills pick and begin a thread comparing the Bills' pick to yours. After the 2012 season, I'll revisit your selections, again compare them to Buddy's, and we'll all see how your picks stack up. Are you up for this Mathews' Bag?