What we'll probably get for T. Henry

[Mark VI]

You do realize that Faulk forced the Colts' hand,  don't you?  He only demanded (and ultimately recieved,  from the Rams) $45 million,  which Indy could not,  or would not pay.  Everyone in the league knew they had to dump Faulk and it drove his price down as a result. 

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..and then Indy drafted E. James and paid him more, approx 48-50 Mil. Polian didn't save any $$. I remember that story well.

[Brandon]

Faulk's situation was an abberation. The Colts thought he was done. They also knew that they were going to draft either Rickey Williams or Edgerrin James, and took what they could get for Faulk. Corey Dillon is a much better example, IMO. A few excellent seasons, thought rightly or wrongly to be a malcontent. Dillon had a couple more good seasons. Travis has a couple more good seasons left as he is several years younger. Neither is a great blocker or receiver.

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Agreed. In addition, you also have to consider that Henry has proven that he is a solid, if maybe unspectacular NFL RB and compare that with what is likely going to be available in R2. Look at last years draft as an example. Would you rather have a guy who has proven that he can rush for 1300 yards and 10+ TDs, or would you rather have Tatum Bell, Julius Jones or Greg Jones? I don't think its too tough of a choice. The point is, its not too likely you'll find the next Barry Sanders in R2 and Henry represents a safe choice and a very good value for the investment.

[frogger]

Henry stays in Buffalo, First his contract doesn't hurt us, 2nd no one will offer what he should be worth, 3rd there is always a need for a back up RB, Shaud Williams isn't bad, but Henry is better. It doesn't hurt us to keep him. and after the year is done and he becomes a FA so be it, if we trade him we'll have to draft another RB, so why not just keep him.

[Brandon]

..and then Indy drafted E. James and paid him more, approx 48-50 Mil. Polian didn't save any $$. I remember that story well.

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It didn't make a whole lot of sense, although it worked out for them. In the end, looking at the 1999 RB class, you can't really blame them for drafting James at 4 to replace Faulk. Outside of James and Williams, the rest of that RB class was absolutely awful.

[ATBNG]

Agreed.  In addition,  you also have to consider that Henry has proven that he is a solid,  if maybe unspectacular NFL RB and compare that with what is likely going to be available in R2.  Look at last years draft as an example.  Would you rather have a guy who has proven that he can rush for 1300 yards and 10+ TDs,  or would you rather have Tatum Bell,  Julius Jones or Greg Jones?  I don't think its too tough of a choice.  The point is,  its not too likely you'll find the next Barry Sanders in R2 and Henry represents a safe choice and a very good value for the investment.

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I'd rather have Tatum Bell, Julius Jones or Greg Jones.

 

More than them though, I'd rather have the pick, where at least I preserve the option that I can improve my team at any position depending on who is available, rather than trade that pick for a RB who is getting worse and was at least partially responsible for my quarterback stumbling around like Boom Boom Mancini at the tail end of the last two seasons because his blitz pickup was so weak.

[Kelly the Dog]

It didn't make a whole lot of sense,  although it worked out for them.  In the end,  looking at the 1999 RB class,  you can't really blame them for drafting James at 4 to replace Faulk.  Outside of James and Williams,  the rest of that RB class was absolutely awful.

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The thing is, Polian knew he was going to do it. They didn't think the 40+ million was going to be worth it for a guy that had a ton of carries and took a lot of pounding for 5 years, and decided it was better to spend it on Williams or James. The fact that Faulk was so good on the Rams right away was a surprise to most people that first year. It was only after he went crazy in that offense that people thought it was a bad trade, and James became a great pick anyway. it's not as though Polian didn't know he was going to have to sign James to a contract worth as much as Faulk, they had the 4th pick in the draft.

[Albany,n.y.]

  Everyone in the league knew they had to dump Faulk and it drove his price down as a result. 

 

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Everyone knows we have to dump Henry.

 

He won't put up with being a backup going into his FA year. No responsible agent is going to let a player in Henry's position remain with his current team without some serious squaking. I wouldn't be surprised if his agent tells him not to report if he isn't traded, and they'll tell TD all about it this February.

 

Henry has as much chance of being a Buffalo Bill next year as you or I & I know I'm not making the roster.

[Bill from NYC]

Posts such as this amaze me.

Do you think that opposing GMs will NOT notice that the Buffalo Bills football team not only started winning football games, but became dominant only after Henry was benched? Are you kidding?

 

Travis Henry is worht little more than a used condom. That said, if there is a GM out there who is provincial enough to offer the Bills anything, TD will take it and fast. I suspect a 5th, if we are lucky.

[MadBuffaloDisease]

I don't think so. The Bengals got pick #64 specifically for Dillon - i.e. the lowest pick in the second round. There's a difference between getting a known pick and a generic pick (say in the 2006 draft) in the second round.

So? The Bills will theoretically get a specific pick in the 2nd round for Henry as well. I'm not even talking about 2006, unless it's to tack on a conditional pick, a la the Dols and RW.

 

Dillon is a much better running back than Henry. He's been more productive for a longer period of time, is a better blocker, fumbles much less, and stays on the field (if Henry misses Sunday's game, he'll have missed as many games this year as Dillon has in his career). The middle two below-average skills are very important - NFL talent evaluators aren't trying to win a fantasy football league.

Using Dillon as a comparison, taking a look at their last 4 years with their original teams (i.e. 2000-2003 for Dillon and 2001-2004 for Henry which is his entire career), Dillon has 753 more yards, but 1 fewer TD. He was also 30-1/2 versus Henry who will be 26.5. And as for fumbles, Henry had just 3 last year showing he improved in that area.

 

Few running backs in the NFL have all that much trade value, and I don't think Henry is among them. Marshall Faulk only fetched a second rounder the year before he became the consensus best player in the league. Guys like Nick Goings and Reuben Droughens have come from the bottom of the depth chart and gotten the job done for their respective teams.

Droughns plays for Denver, who always has a good running attack. As for Goings, he's the exception, not the rule. He was their 5th or 6th RB at the start of the season so even THEY didn't know what they had. People will know what they're getting in Henry.

5th, conditional 4th at best, but if I had to guess I'd guess he is released.

Not even close. At worst the Bills will get a straight-up high 3rd for Henry, but I'm betting a straight-up 2nd that conditionally becomes a 1st. There is no pressure to trade him like there was with Faulk and unlike with Dillon, the market for him will be good. And no way he gets released when he's making just $1.25M next year. That's insane. At worst the Bills keep him for the year if they don't get a pick they like and let him become an UFA after the season.

[Bill from NYC]

So?  The Bills will theoretically get a specific pick in the 2nd round for Henry as well.  I'm not even talking about 2006, unless it's to tack on a conditional pick, a la the Dols and RW.

Using Dillon as a comparison, taking a look at their last 4 years with their original teams (i.e. 2000-2003 for Dillon and 2001-2004 for Henry which is his entire career), Dillon has 753 more yards, but 1 fewer TD.  He was also 30-1/2 versus Henry who will be 26.5.  And as for fumbles, Henry had just 3 last year showing he improved in that area.

Droughns plays for Denver, who always has a good running attack.  As for Goings, he's the exception, not the rule.  He was their 5th or 6th RB at the start of the season so even THEY didn't know what they had.  People will know what they're getting in Henry.

 

Not even close.  At worst the Bills will get a straight-up high 3rd for Henry, but I'm betting a straight-up 2nd that conditionally becomes a 1st.  There is no pressure to trade him like there was with Faulk and unlike with Dillon, the market for him will be good.  And no way he gets released when he's making just $1.25M next year.  That's insane.  At worst the Bills keep him for the year if they don't get a pick they like and let him become an UFA after the season.

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Your post is well thought and I thank you for taking the time to share it. Forgive me if mine is more to the point.

 

Are you, in any conceivable way, trying to compare the abilities of travis henry to those of Corey Dillon? I hope not, because one sucks, and the other is great.

[MadBuffaloDisease]

Come on Bill, Dillon doesn't "suck."

[34-78-83]

I agree with the fewer and fewer here who think we can get a 2nd for TH. Maybe not a high second, but somewhere in the round. Although he has flaws that obviously now have been exposed and he has not improved on (other than fumbling), those flaws are often exaggerated by folks who for some reason hate him. As positives he offers a tough, physical style, and good quickness. He never gives up and is a team oriented player as I have seen it. On a team with a fair to good passing game, he can compliment with a 1300 to 1400 10 TD season. There are bound to be plenty of coaches out there who think they can "fix" him.

[The Poojer]

how is that doing the right thing? keeping th from trying to prove his worth with some other team. th needs to be on the field, not backing up wm, tha will be shuad williams job.

 

I think the Bills will do the right thing and keep Travis thru his contract. He's worth more to the Bills as a backup in 2005 than he will fetch in a trade. There are a lotta good backs in this draft. Better than last year by far. Nobody would give us even a 3rd for a 1 year contract for travis henry.

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[Bill from NYC]

I agree with the fewer and fewer here who think we can get a 2nd for TH. Maybe not a high second, but somewhere in the round. Although he has flaws that obviously now have been exposed and he has not improved on (other than fumbling), those flaws are often exaggerated by folks who for some reason hate him. As positives he offers a tough, physical style, and good quickness. He never gives up and is a team oriented player as I have seen it. On a team with a fair to good passing game, he can compliment with a 1300 to 1400 10 TD season. There are bound to be plenty of coaches out there who think they can "fix" him.

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Come on, lets talk turkey here, OK? Forget the "hatred" slaps, all right? How about if you and I just discuss this from a football standpoint, and NOT, ala ICE, make this a thing about who is "right?'

 

I guess that there are two questions that I would like to put forth:

 

1) Can you, in a serious manner, make the assertion that Travis Henry even approaches Corey Dillon in terms of who is a better running back? In other words, are you GLAD that we have Henry in lieu of Dillon?

 

2) Do you think that NO GMs will notice that the Buffalo Bills football team started winning as soon as Henry was graciously removed from the starting lineup?

 

I ask these questions in context of making the statement that imo... yes, merely my opinion, that there is no way on earth that Henry will bring us a 2nd round pick. Again, I love the Bills, and hope to be proven wrong. Meanwhile, I would rather have Sean Bryson on the Bills than Henry. How about you?

[JohninMinn.]

I agree with the fewer and fewer here who think we can get a 2nd for TH. Maybe not a high second, but somewhere in the round. Although he has flaws that obviously now have been exposed and he has not improved on (other than fumbling), those flaws are often exaggerated by folks who for some reason hate him. As positives he offers a tough, physical style, and good quickness. He never gives up and is a team oriented player as I have seen it. On a team with a fair to good passing game, he can compliment with a 1300 to 1400 10 TD season. There are bound to be plenty of coaches out there who think they can "fix" him.

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You can't fix "carnie" hands. They are what they are.

[Brandon]

Everyone knows we have to dump Henry.

 

He won't put up with being a backup going into his FA year.  No responsible agent is going to let a player in Henry's position remain with his current team without some serious squaking.  I wouldn't be surprised if his agent tells him not to report if he isn't traded, and they'll tell TD all about it this February. 

 

Henry has as much chance of being a Buffalo Bill next year as you or I & I know I'm not making the roster.

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Henry has far less leverage with the Bills than you give him credit for. If Henry threatens to sit out the year, so what? McGahee is the starter anyway. If Henry sits out the season, then what good does that do him? None. In fact, he'll have missed the better part of two seasons and his FA value will be down the toilet.

[Bill from NYC]

Henry has far less leverage with the Bills than you give him credit for.  If Henry threatens to sit out the year,  so what?  McGahee is the starter anyway.  If Henry sits out the season,  then what good does that do him?  None.  In fact,  he'll have missed the better part of two seasons and his FA value will be down the toilet.

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You are correct sir.....totally correct. I am not getting why it is is SO hard to arrive at your accurate conclusion.

[34-78-83]

Come on, lets talk turkey here, OK? Forget the "hatred" slaps, all right? How about if you and I just discuss this from a football standpoint, and NOT, ala ICE, make this a thing about who is "right?'

 

I guess that there are two questions that I would like to put forth:

 

1) Can you, in a serious manner, make the assertion that Travis Henry even approaches Corey Dillon in terms of who is a better running back? In other words, are you GLAD that we have Henry in lieu of Dillon?

 

2) Do you think that NO GMs will notice that the Buffalo Bills football team started winning as soon as Henry was graciously removed from the starting lineup?

 

I ask these questions in context of making the statement that imo... yes, merely my opinion, that there is no way on earth that Henry will bring us a 2nd round pick. Again, I love the Bills, and hope to be proven wrong. Meanwhile, I would rather have Sean Bryson on the Bills than Henry. How about you?

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I'm sorry Bill, that honestly wasn't intended to single you out. I am done doing that since I have come to better understand you and you have made your points in a much more respectable manner of late. The hatred reference was a valid point IMO and there are many that express it by using what are well beyond derogatory terms to describe the man's play...

 

As for your questions.

1) No, Henry is not as good as Dillon. I agree, and would rather have Dillon (minus attitude of course which he seems to have shed). My point was more in reference to the draft pick/trade question.

2) I think ALL GM's will notice this as you say AND will ALSO notice that there were atleast 10 other factors that contirbuted to the Bills turn around this season (hence my point re: exaggeration.

 

You might rather have Bryson, but he is not 1/2 the back TH is, and in turn, TH is about 1/2 the back Willis is/ is going to be.

 

I still say somewhere in the second and I also feel we could benefit from keeping him, but I could be wrong on both counts.

[Fake-Fat Sunny]

Henry has far less leverage with the Bills than you give him credit for.  If Henry threatens to sit out the year,  so what?  McGahee is the starter anyway.  If Henry sits out the season,  then what good does that do him?  None.  In fact,  he'll have missed the better part of two seasons and his FA value will be down the toilet.

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I agree with you Brandon that Hemry has little leverage with the Bills. Push comes to shove he is under contract. If the Bills chose to not to deal him they can. The presence of Willis and a good display by Williams playing against a bad team allows the Bills to refuse to negotiate should he refuse to report and they still will own him for another year as he gets no credit for not reporting.

 

The other answer for him which many on this board think his agent will tell him to do is to simply become a cancer to this team and force them to trade or cut him. It would be stupid to give this advice to Travis and stupid for him to take it.

 

Travis and the Bills have the same goal, they are not competitors. This goes beyong the shared goal of getting to the SB, if you assume that both he and the Bills are done with each other, their shared goal is to get the maximum value for Henry from some other team. This maximum value gives the Bills something in return for this first day draft pick and this maximum value gives Henry the leverage to negotiate a bg payday.

 

This is going to be a tough task to get a lot for him because of the same faults people find with Henry:

 

1. His production this year while he played was way down. Is the real Henry the one who made the Pro Bowl or the one we saw early this year?

2. He is an injured players who orginally was diagnosed with a broken bone.

 

Does anyone seriously think any agent or Henry will add to these kocks the concept that he is a cancer to deal with?

 

If I'm Henry I'm pretty much feeling like my best option to sign a big contract is to remain a Bill. I get to work with the team docs in the off-season rehabbiny myself. Next year, I spell WM and try to use the fact that I'm not called upon much to start when I'm in. I enter FA next year as a former Pro Bowl RB who has demonstrated he is a teamer and if I play like I believe I am capable of playing rip off a few that gets someone to sign me to a big FA deal and this is worse comes to worse. In a good personal wolrd for me, WM goes down like he did last week, and I come in as a healthy player and play like I believe I can and star.

 

In a perfect and fair world, i would have gotten traded this year and signed a big contract to bind me to my new team. However, life ain't fair. Ny far the best deal for me as a person is to bide by time and like Bledesoe even if my play sucks I can make the big payday by keeping my mouth shut and biding my time.

[Bill from NYC]

I'm sorry Bill, that honestly wasn't intended to single you out. I am done doing that since I have come to better understand you and you have made your points in a much more respectable manner of late. The hatred reference was a valid point IMO and there are many that express it by using what are well beyond derogatory terms to describe the man's play...

 

As for your questions.

1) No, Henry is not as good as Dillon. I agree, and would rather have Dillon (minus attitude of course which he seems to have shed). My point was more in reference to the draft pick/trade question.

2) I think ALL GM's will notice this as you say AND will ALSO notice that there were atleast 10 other factors that contirbuted to the Bills turn around this season (hence my point re: exaggeration.

 

You might rather have Bryson, but he is not 1/2 the back TH is, and in turn, TH is about 1/2 the back Willis is/ is going to be.

 

I still say somewhere in the second and I also feel we could benefit from keeping him, but I could be wrong on both counts.

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Hey, I could be wrong too. I WANT to be!!! A #2 could be enough to move us back into the 1st round when coupled with another pick. I just do NOT see any possibility of this happening, but that does not make me "right."

 

Btw, Henry is a better runner than Bryson. I know this. My complaints with Henry did not involve his ability to run until this season. You and I both saw his dreadful slips and slides on crucial plays. He cost us wins.

I would prefer Bryson because he is an all around football player. This imo is something that TH is NOT, nor ever was. Again, I want to be wrong.

 

Let us both hope that on sunday, there is "Help on the Way."