It's official Mario Williams is a free agent

[Damian]

Mario Williams was so good in college, he made his teammate John McCargo look like a stud and tricked some foolish team into drafting McCargo in the first round...

[3rdand12]

kelsay isnt bad, but he isnt a guy you gameplan around, and isnt a guy that you couldnt more or less replace if it meant getting an elite player. A DE that is gameplanned around is the single most game changing thing a defense can have - its like the franchise qb. mario williams is that type of player, while kelsay is a fitz. i like fitz, i like kelsay - i want game changers at both spots by whatever means possible. those two positions can make everyone else in the unit better.

 

with a guy like mario suddenly florence, mcgee, mckelvin all suddenly are upgraded, and our OLB behind him looks better - safeties get there hands on more rushed passes. turnovers help the offense. a start at any position helps but at DE and QB you get tremendous value (hence the high price tags) for the entire unit, and team. you get a lead and that end can close the game - kelsay isnt a guy that finishes a game out for the defense. kelsay is a guy that can help you hopefully hold on.

 

who is the stud youd like to see across from him?

Quickly, we may not need to have a DE that demands a chip or two nowadays. we have two guys in the middle that do! Both of them will deserve double teaming. and the consistent blue collar guy we can depend on is Mr K. Now if we add a DE on the weak side or Merriman can be a presents!? then we only need to get the sslb who can bring the wood and bring it quickly.

An elite pass rusher would be whipped cream on top of our coffee. Man that would be nice though.

[Steve O]

Mario Williams was so good in college, he made his teammate John McCargo look like a stud and tricked some foolish team into drafting McCargo in the first round....

actually tricked them in to trading up and moving back in to the first round to take him.

[Pondslider]

So if the Bills somehow sign Williams will they be re-signing McCargo?

 

I think he would demand it.

[mob16151]

So if the Bills somehow sign Williams will they be re-signing McCargo?

 

I think he would demand it.

 

 

How about Manny Lawson?

[San Jose Bills Fan]

So if the Bills somehow sign Williams will they be re-signing McCargo?

 

I think he would demand it.

 

How about Manny Lawson?

[K-9]

Not really. The Bills operate on the cash to cap model. This means that any roster or signing bonuses will count 100% this year. How much "cap space" we have is really irrelevant.

 

That's true, but they rolled over that additional $21mfrom last year's cap, giving them a reported $35m to play with. I don't think they can go after both but perhaps one isn't out of the question? I gotta think they gave themselves that extra room for a reason.

 

GO BILLS!!!

Edited March 8, 2012 by K-9

[NoSaint]

The problem would be structure. Any guy coming here will want a ton upfront. it could be 16 per but it'd be 25-30 year one, and 12 would bump to 20 plus. With signing bonus you could amortize it to help but its a question of structure.

 

Not really. The Bills operate on the cash to cap model. This means that any roster or signing bonuses will count 100% this year. How much "cap space" we have is really irrelevant.

 

It also means we don't have all those old bonuses eating up our cap today.

[BuffaloBillsMagic1]

The problem would be structure. Any guy coming here will want a ton upfront. it could be 16 per but it'd be 25-30 year one, and 12 would bump to 20 plus. With signing bonus you could amortize it to help but its a question of structure.

 

 

 

It also means we don't have all those old bonuses eating up our cap today.

no reason we can't ditch the cap to cash deal and get a capologist and free up 50 million or so next year if they wanted to. Just need re-sructuring contrdcts like our jets and pats always do.

[Astrobot]

Is breaking the bank for Mario the best idea?

 

Williams was not given the franchise tag by Houston due to Connor Barwin's emergence (11.5 sacks), Antonio Smith and JJ Watt's emergence (6.5 and 5.5 sacks), the increased role of Cushing and Brooks Reed in a blitzing style, and how close the Texans are to their salary cap. But Williams missed 11 of 16 games last season with a torn pectoral muscle.

 

Consider a 2-year replacement in John Abraham while our draft picks ramp up. Here's how JA and MW stack up:

2008-Abraham had 12 games better than +1.0 by Pro Football Focus, who examine every play. Williams had 6.

2009-Abraham had 9 games better than +1.0 by Pro Football Focus, Williams had 4.

2010-Abraham had 10 games better than +1.0 by Pro Football Focus, Williams had 5.

2011-Abraham had 10 games better than +1.0 by Pro Football Focus, Williams had 3.

 

Abraham played 690 snaps and led his team with 9.5 sacks last season (Dareus-like numbers).

Williams played 225 snaps and trailed his line with 5.0 sacks last season.

 

Abraham played 46 games in the last 3 years, with 28 sacks (10. 16.5, 5, 13, and 9.5 over the last 5 years).

Williams played 34 games in the last 3 years, with 23 sacks (14, 10, 9, 9, and 5 over the last 5 years).

 

Seems that the player that's declining in performance is Williams, not Abraham.

[Justice]

Is breaking the bank for Mario the best idea?

 

Williams was not given the franchise tag by Houston due to Connor Barwin's emergence (11.5 sacks), Antonio Smith and JJ Watt's emergence (6.5 and 5.5 sacks), the increased role of Cushing and Brooks Reed in a blitzing style, and how close the Texans are to their salary cap. But Williams missed 11 of 16 games last season with a torn pectoral muscle.

 

Consider a 2-year replacement in John Abraham while our draft picks ramp up. Here's how JA and MW stack up:

2008-Abraham had 12 games better than +1.0 by Pro Football Focus, who examine every play. Williams had 6.

2009-Abraham had 9 games better than +1.0 by Pro Football Focus, Williams had 4.

2010-Abraham had 10 games better than +1.0 by Pro Football Focus, Williams had 5.

2011-Abraham had 10 games better than +1.0 by Pro Football Focus, Williams had 3.

 

Abraham played 690 snaps and led his team with 9.5 sacks last season (Dareus-like numbers).

Williams played 225 snaps and trailed his line with 5.0 sacks last season.

 

Abraham played 46 games in the last 3 years, with 28 sacks (10. 16.5, 5, 13, and 9.5 over the last 5 years).

Williams played 34 games in the last 3 years, with 23 sacks (14, 10, 9, 9, and 5 over the last 5 years).

 

Seems that the player that's declining in performance is Williams, not Abraham.

 

Age plays a huge factor when deciding between Abraham and Williams. Abraham will age and decline quickly.

[CosmicBills]

Is breaking the bank for Mario the best idea?

 

Williams was not given the franchise tag by Houston due to Connor Barwin's emergence (11.5 sacks), Antonio Smith and JJ Watt's emergence (6.5 and 5.5 sacks), the increased role of Cushing and Brooks Reed in a blitzing style, and how close the Texans are to their salary cap. But Williams missed 11 of 16 games last season with a torn pectoral muscle.

 

Consider a 2-year replacement in John Abraham while our draft picks ramp up. Here's how JA and MW stack up:

2008-Abraham had 12 games better than +1.0 by Pro Football Focus, who examine every play. Williams had 6.

2009-Abraham had 9 games better than +1.0 by Pro Football Focus, Williams had 4.

2010-Abraham had 10 games better than +1.0 by Pro Football Focus, Williams had 5.

2011-Abraham had 10 games better than +1.0 by Pro Football Focus, Williams had 3.

 

Abraham played 690 snaps and led his team with 9.5 sacks last season (Dareus-like numbers).

Williams played 225 snaps and trailed his line with 5.0 sacks last season.

 

Abraham played 46 games in the last 3 years, with 28 sacks (10. 16.5, 5, 13, and 9.5 over the last 5 years).

Williams played 34 games in the last 3 years, with 23 sacks (14, 10, 9, 9, and 5 over the last 5 years).

 

Seems that the player that's declining in performance is Williams, not Abraham.

Abraham is 33 with his best days behind him. Williams is 27 and right in the heart of his prime physical years.

[NoSaint]

Sometimes you post nonsense like this, and it really makes me pause on the rankings for the mocks and such. Missing three games, then a simple torn muscle isn't going into decline. In that same defense, playing an all new position his pace would have put him at 16- ahead of all those guys, and unless you think he was only getting 4 sacks in the next 11 games he would have been double digits

 

Oh yea, and would have played a ton more snaps as Abrahams coaches didn't think he could play full time effectively.

Edited March 9, 2012 by NoSaint

[bruceisloose78]

nice analysis astro, I wouldn't mind seeing abraham in a bills unis on a 2 or 3 year deal at the right price. I don't want to pay williams the type of money that peppers got either.

[QCity]

That's true, but they rolled over that additional $21mfrom last year's cap, giving them a reported $35m to play with. I don't think they can go after both but perhaps one isn't out of the question? I gotta think they gave themselves that extra room for a reason.

 

GO BILLS!!!

OK, we did roll over the $21M and had about $35M to play with. I used the word "had" because that was last week. Stevie's base salary for 2012 is $2.5M with an $8.5M signing bonus. So that's $11M, which drops that $35M figure down to $24M.

 

Now, we don't know what Chandler signed for yet, but let's guess $3M. Just a guess, not even going to include a signing bonus. That $24M is down to $21M.

 

OK, let's not forget about the draft! Conventional wisdom with the new draft salaries says that teams should allot at least $5M for the draft. That figure goes up if a team picks in the top 5. So let's say $5M and now we are down to $16M.

 

So even with $16M left, we still haven't talked about resigning our remaining players like Bell. And in addition to resigning our own, we still will need to have to some cash to go after 2nd and 3rd tier FA's normally used for backup roles.

 

All of a sudden that $35M is looking more like $10-$12M. Now remember, if we do sign a big name FA, even if we backload his deal we still need to fit his signing bonus into that figure. That's pretty much the reality of the situation.

[NoSaint]

OK, we did roll over the $21M and had about $35M to play with. I used the word "had" because that was last week. Stevie's base salary for 2012 is $2.5M with an $8.5M signing bonus. So that's $11M, which drops that $35M figure down to $24M.

 

Now, we don't know what Chandler signed for yet, but let's guess $3M. Just a guess, not even going to include a signing bonus. That $24M is down to $21M.

 

OK, let's not forget about the draft! Conventional wisdom with the new draft salaries says that teams should allot at least $5M for the draft. That figure goes up if a team picks in the top 5. So let's say $5M and now we are down to $16M.

 

So even with $16M left, we still haven't talked about resigning our remaining players like Bell. And in addition to resigning our own, we still will need to have to some cash to go after 2nd and 3rd tier FA's normally used for backup roles.

 

All of a sudden that $35M is looking more like $10-$12M. Now remember, if we do sign a big name FA, even if we backload his deal we still need to fit his signing bonus into that figure. That's pretty much the reality of the situation.

 

If structured as a signing instead of roster bonus, only a fifth of it hits this year. From my understanding the bills do like the rosters as it fits the cash to cap mold but I'm not sure on Stevie.

[Astrobot]

Sometimes you just have to shake things up.

[JPS]

I see NO downside in a 2 year deal for Abraham.

[NoSaint]

Sometimes you just have to shake things up.

I'll accept a "not the right value" argument but to imply he's in decline because his sacks and snaps were down after his first long term injury is nonsense. Especially compared to an older part time player.And to compare stats for 5 games vs a full season as if it's meaningful insight is silly. All you proved was he played 5 games better than any other player mentioned in a new scheme after the lockout. Hardly a knock unless you think the chest injury will be an issue going forward.

Edited March 9, 2012 by NoSaint

[marauderswr80]

Top players cost top money....sometimes you have to go sll in to enjoy the success.