BattleGround States

[Magox]

I don't get how two polls can be so vastly different than one another.

 

 

USAToday/Gallup Poll which obviously is one of the more well known polls has this to say:

 

WASHINGTON – The health care overhaul that President Obama intended to be the signature achievement of his first term instead has become a significant problem in his bid for a second one, uniting Republicans in opposition and eroding his standing among independents.

 

 

In a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of the nation's dozen top battleground states, a clear majority of registered voters call the bill's passage "a bad thing" and support its repeal if a Republican wins the White House in November. Two years after he signed the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act— and as the Supreme Court prepares to hear arguments about its constitutionality next month — the president has failed to convince most Americans that it was the right thing to do.

 

In the poll, Obama lags the two leading Republican rivals in the 12 states likely to determine the outcome of a close race in November:

 

•Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum tops Obama 50%-45% in the swing states. Nationwide, Santorum's lead narrows to 49%-46%.

 

•Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney edges Obama 48%-46% in the swing states. Nationwide, they are tied at 47% each.

 

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-02-23/swing-states-health-care-obama/53260222/1

 

 

And there is this, from Politico's/George Washington Poll

 

 

A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll reveals the prolonged nominating battle is taking a toll on the GOP candidates and finds the president’s standing significantly improved from late last year.

 

President Barack Obama’s approval rating is 53 percent, up 9 percentage points in four months. Matched up against his Republican opponents, he leads Mitt Romney by 10 points (53-43) and Rick Santorum by 11 (53-42). Even against a generic, unnamed Republican untarnished by attacks, Obama is up 5 percentage points. In November, he was tied.

 

 

Both of these polls were conducted roughly during the same time period. Very odd

 

 

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/73308.html#ixzz1nah4dH6R

[B-Man]

I don't get how two polls can be so vastly different than one another.

 

 

USAToday/Gallup Poll which obviously is one of the more well known polls has this to say:

 

 

 

http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/story/2012-02-23/swing-states-health-care-obama/53260222/1

 

 

And there is this, from Politico's/George Washington Poll

 

Both of these polls were conducted roughly during the same time period. Very odd

 

 

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0212/73308.html#ixzz1nah4dH6R

 

 

Very easily explained. The Politico polls consistently "overweigh" the number of democrat ressponses.

 

They announce that theyhave polled 1000 likely voters, but unlike other polls (and the real world)

 

they ask 8-10% more dems than republicans, thus skewing the results.

 

.

[Magox]

Very easily explained. The Politico polls consistently "overweigh" the number of democrat ressponses.

 

They announce that theyhave polled 1000 likely voters, but unlike other polls (and the real world)

 

they ask 8-10% more dems than republicans, thus skewing the results.

 

.

 

I'll tell you how you know that the Politico Poll is an outlier, they show that Romney is down 22% amongst Independents vs Obama 49% vs 27%. Ok, I think we can all agree that Romney has lost some support from Independents, but 22% down against Obama

 

 

Here is a poll that came out today,

 

For the first time since late December 2011, Mitt Romney leads the president in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. Romney earns 45% of the vote, while the president attracts support from 43%. Romney holds a nine-point advantage among unaffiliated voters.

 

So you have 3 recent polls, two have Romney up and One Obama obliterating Romney. You have one that shows Obama up by 22% among independents,Rasmussen shows Romney up by 9%, the Gallup Poll doesn't show, but it has an even larger overall lead for Romney over Obama so you can rationally conclude that independents are siding with Romney by more than 9%.

 

So you tell me which one from an objective POV is MORE of an outlier, the two polls that show Romney up by around 10% or the one that shows Obama up by 22%?

 

Rasmussen btw, has been one of the more favorable polls for Obama this year when you look at his approval ratings. Check out the RealClear Politics polls and you can see it there.

Edited February 27, 2012 by Magox

[IDBillzFan]

Rasmussen btw, has been one of the more favorable polls for Obama this year when you look at his approval ratings. Check out the RealClear Politics polls and you can see it there.

The one thing I've come to learn in reading polls; there are probably only two or three of any real accurate value. The ones I tend to follow include Rasmussen, Gallup and Quinnipiac, primarily because they make a more concerted effort to poll equal sides of likely voters.

 

Polls from USA Today, Politico, PPP (done for DailyKos), Fox, NBC/WSJ tend to tilt their samplings one way or another. Some don't bother with "likely voters," but rather with "I can fog a miror."

Edited February 27, 2012 by LABillzFan

[B-Man]

The most important thing that you can take away from reading this thread is;

 

In today's world Polls are used to shape public opinion, not report it.

 

So when Davey, or similar posters, post their daily, "look at how bad they're doing" threads, based on polling that specifically tried to achieve a certain result................remember that phrase.

 

Or, for that matter, if I, or one of the like conservative posters quote a poll, you would also be wise to remember that phrase.

 

Not only is a poll created to promote a certain desired response, but then it is usually echoed throughout the media (as planned) until it is accepted as fact.

 

but remember in today's world POLLS ARE USED TO SHAPE PUBLIC OPINION, NOT REPORT IT.

 

 

 

 

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