Casey D Posted December 27, 2004 Share Posted December 27, 2004 Buffalo -3.5 Rams -2.5 Colts +3/+7.5-- depending on bookmaker(Sportsbook v. Stardust) If you figure that Denver has a 70% chance of winning, and say the Jets have a 70% chance of winning, the chances of both things happening is only 49%... so if the Bills win, better than 50% chance of getting in, based on these probabilities...CD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted December 27, 2004 Share Posted December 27, 2004 there's actually a line where the Rams are the favorite against the Jets next week? that definitely won't last if that's the case. I might put a good chunk of change on the Jets moneyline and be happy either way next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillnutinHouston Posted December 27, 2004 Share Posted December 27, 2004 I have to admit I got a C in Statistics in college but isn't it a tad more complicated than that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Like A Mofo Posted December 27, 2004 Share Posted December 27, 2004 Rams are favored??? I hate to say it...but if i were a betting man Id take a 20X on the Jets. Maybe I need more Cowbell........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted December 27, 2004 Share Posted December 27, 2004 it's possible the original poster misread tonight's game for the Jets game. Rams are about a 2.5/3 point favorite tonight. I doubt any book will set the line for Jets-Rams until they see what happens tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crackur Posted December 27, 2004 Share Posted December 27, 2004 it's possible the original poster misread tonight's game for the Jets game. Rams are about a 2.5/3 point favorite tonight. I doubt any book will set the line for Jets-Rams until they see what happens tonight. 180427[/snapback] however the jet couldnt beat the eagles back ups.........so we will know tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casey D Posted December 27, 2004 Author Share Posted December 27, 2004 I have to admit I got a C in Statistics in college but isn't it a tad more complicated than that? 180417[/snapback] No, assuming the Bills win, if each event has 7/10 of happening, the likelihood of both events happening is found by muliplying the two probabilities(assuming they are not interrelated). So here, squaring 7/10ths= 49/100, or 49%. You can change the odds anyway you like, so if you think 80% chance of Denver winning, and 60% chance of NYJ winning, you would get a probability of 12/25 of both events occuring, or 48%. You get the idea. Of course, if you say the Bills have a 50% of winning, then you would halve the probability to 24%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casey D Posted December 27, 2004 Author Share Posted December 27, 2004 it's possible the original poster misread tonight's game for the Jets game. Rams are about a 2.5/3 point favorite tonight. I doubt any book will set the line for Jets-Rams until they see what happens tonight. 180427[/snapback] No, that's the line. It will change depending on tonight's game of course. If you'd like to see the lines, go to www.sportsnetwork.com, then go to the NFL page, and then click on odds...CD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted December 27, 2004 Share Posted December 27, 2004 okay, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake-Fat Sunny Posted December 27, 2004 Share Posted December 27, 2004 Part of the reason that it is gambling is that the line is determined not simply by which team is better, but by an effort to create a middle for bookies where half the bets are for one team and half the bets are for the other team. By getting two or more heads rather than one involved in setting the line it becomes a better approximation than you or I might come up with individually. However, the lines are at their worse setting the spread for a single big event (like the SB) than they are for recurring events like weekly football games where any particular import folks prescribe to how they bet is not skewed by some one time factor. In general, my sense is that the Jets line is almost always has more of a bump than it deserves in the line because so many New Yorkers want to bet on their team regardless of reality that the other team must be given a premium to attract action. I think this weeks Jets line is going to be more off than usual because given it is the last week of the regular season and playoff implications have a strong possibility on impacting results that the line is simply going to be skewed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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