Tackling the "we need a LT" myth

[BillsVet]

Saying something this clearly incorrect loses you nearly all credibility with some of your other points.

 

They just did win 6 games with him, despite a poor defense with the worst pass rush in the league, despite losing their starting Center, their only pro-bowler from the prior season, their starting SS, and their pro-bowl-bound starting RB.

 

I think Fitz is mediocre, and I agree the OL is much better than people give it credit for - but it is patently OBVIOUS that they CAN win more than 6 games with Fitz - all they need to do is repeat last season and not lose KW and Wood.

 

Let's state it this way: With Fitz the Bills ceiling is probably 9 wins with a solid defense. In a league where there's a premium on scoring, the Bills averaged less than 15 points per game during their 1-8 finish. If your QB is limited to a short passing game, teams are going to figure it out mighty quick, which is what happened during and after the Cincinnati game when the Bills scored 24 or more offensive points in only 3 of 12 games.

[DrDawkinstein]

ok, i dont see how you "compared" the stats here. you didnt include the %s of the other QBs, and in fitz's case, 135 out of 569 is about 25% not 4.2.

 

regardless, i dont really think these stats are that important in the grand scope of things. scheme/playcalling, game situation and personnel tell more of the story than these cherry picked stats.

 

i think you can tell a lot more from paying attention during the games rather than just reading the box scores.

 

bottom line: fitz isnt that good, but neither is the oline.

 

Agreed. Anyone with half a brain can make any stat say anything they want.

 

OP notes Fitz had the fewest amount of pressures. He says that is all the OL. Anyone else can say it is because Fitz got rid of the ball quickly. No one is wrong, no one is right.

 

Watch the games. Go Bills!

[Beerball]

Let me preface by saying Hello to all, I am a new poster to THIS particular Bills board, and I look forward to talking football with this board. I have been a regular on the BBMB on the official site for awhile now and the lack of knowledge there astounds me sometimes. I have been perusing this board and can safely say, that I am "in the right place". I sincerely hope that you enjoy my posts and I hope to have lengthy, knowledgable debates.

 

To the point, there is a myth that this team is "lacking" along the Oline and in perticular at the LT spot. To be honest, I have to find that laughable. The real problem with this offense is the Quarterback.

 

Lets not forget the fact that the QB (I cant even say his name sometimes he makes me sick) was the LEAST sacked QB in the NFL this year, even after injuries at critical positions along the offensive front. Lets also add QB pressures to this equation, of which the Qb was ONLY pressured on 135 of his 569 dropbacks or a rate of every 4.2% of dropbacks. Lets compare that number to QB's who are considered to "have all day" behind great offensive lines.

 

Drew Brees - 174 pressured dropbacks

 

Tom Brady - 173 pressured dropbacks

 

Aaron Rodgers - 158 pressured dropbacks

 

Eli Manning - 244 pressured dropbacks (the WORST OLINE in the league, and they won a Super Bowl)

 

There are 14 QB's who started every game this year (E. Manning/Brees/Freeman/Ryan/Rivers/Newton/Flacco/Dalton/Brady/Stafford/A. Smith/Rodgers/Sanchez). There are also Qb's who missed 1-4 games and their Olines surrendered more pressures than that of our Bills they are Vick/Grossman/Mccoy/Romo/Tebow/T. Jackson/Roethlisberger/Bradford/Gabbert. That is 22 Qb's who faced more pressure than Fitzpatrick and 9 of them didnt play 16 games. Of the remaining 12 QB's who started this year only Matt Hasselbeck threw more then 300 times.

 

This Buffalo Bills Oline is one of the strongest units in the league, and they receive constant hatred from some that are too enamoured by a QB who is nothing more than a solid spot-duty BACKUP.

 

Not enough to make some of you believers in this Oline, and non-Billievers in the QB? Well how about this:

 

Fitzpatricks TD/INT ratio when under pressure ranked him 3rd worst in the league and only Curtis Painter (1 TD/ 4 Ints) and Carson Palmer (2 TD's/ 10 Ints) were worse. Fitzpatricks TD/INT ratio under pressure was 2 TD's/ 8 INts.

 

How about his completion % under pressure? Well Fitz ranked at the bottom of the league at that as well at an abysmal 43.6%, hitting only 44 out of 101 attempts.

 

ladies and Gentleman this is definitive proof of the QB being the issue and not the Offensive line.

 

Let me also add that this team was dead last in 3 and outs this year. look, I realize the defense could benefit greatly from a pass rusher (in fact a pass rusher should be the pick in 2 of the first 3 rounds), but fans overlook that when your offense is giving the ball back to the opposing team after ONLY 3 plays that doesnt allow for the defense to properly make in-game adjustments and talk with the coaches about scheme on the sideline.

 

We must address the QB situation with haste, if not this team will continue to be muddled in mediocrity.

Please do us a favor and in future posts include links to back up your statements. Thanks.

[D2K]

Welcome to TSW. It's a great place. BBMB Is a joke. Let's hope you didn't pick up any bad habits there.

First off, I am not a BIG fan of Fitz. Many here think I hate him due to a couple threads I made. Well, I don't hate him. I just don't think he can ever lead us to our only true goal, a Super Bowl ring. He's a good qb at times. He's a bad qb at times. I like a lot of things about him and dislike a lot of things about him. I've said the, enough, so I'll leave it at that. Now on to your post. I disagree 100%. Like many here have said, chan devised a passing attack that would limit the time in the "pocket" due to our lack of good pass blocking. I think our OL played well this season, but it can still be MUCH improved. Your stats are a product of a system, not an OL. Is Casey Keenum the best QB in this years draft? According to his stats, which are based on the system in which he played, he is definitely the best QB. But he's not and your theory is irrelevant. But welcome aboard. Fun times, especially this time of year.

 

Thank you and I agree that the BBMB is a joke.

 

This is the counter-argument I get from EVERY Bills fan that thinks the Oline is bad/garbage, which I truly dont understand. Some say that its chans offense that is the somehow hiding the Oline, while I feel that its chans offense that is protecting/hiding Fitzpatrick and his accuracy issues and his overall game in general.

 

I think many people are enamoured by the "Harvard" stigma and just automatically assume because he went to Harvard he is "football smart". There is a giant difference between being Football smart and Harvard educated. If this were the case then why wouldnt teams strictly draft QB's from Ivy league schools? and forget the whole "natural talent" factor that goes into playing the most important position in ALL of sports? Trent Edwards was smart, doesnt mean he is capable of being an NFL QB.

 

Please do us a favor and in future posts include links to back up your statements. Thanks.

 

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/01/31/pressure-and-the-2011-quarterbacks/

 

Done and done.

[The Big Cat]

Thank you and I agree that the BBMB is a joke.

 

This is the counter-argument I get from EVERY Bills fan that thinks the Oline is bad/garbage, which I truly dont understand. Some say that its chans offense that is the somehow hiding the Oline, while I feel that its chans offense that is protecting/hiding Fitzpatrick and his accuracy issues and his overall game in general.

 

I think many people are enamoured by the "Harvard" stigma and just automatically assume because he went to Harvard he is "football smart". There is a giant difference between being Football smart and Harvard educated. If this were the case then why wouldnt teams strictly draft QB's from Ivy league schools? and forget the whole "natural talent" factor that goes into playing the most important position in ALL of sports? Trent Edwards was smart, doesnt mean he is capable of being an NFL QB.

 

 

 

http://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2012/01/31/pressure-and-the-2011-quarterbacks/

 

Done and done.

 

This entire thread, regardless of where your allegiances lie, gives credibility to a campaign I'd launch here and now.

 

MODS!

 

Please pin this: LINK

[Beerball]

Did he say this to the media?

If so, I'm glad to hear it.

 

I wonder if the lockout prevented Lee's predeccesor from addressing these seemingly obvious concerns a year ago. Or, perhaps his failure to do so ultimately cost him his job.

 

Any way you cut it, one needn't an NFL contract to detect bugs in Fitz's mechanics. Glad to hear the new guy's making them a priority.

 

My only fear is that mechanics tweaks, regardless of sport, can either have tremendous benefits, or terrible, terrible consequences. Here's hoping.

I believe that this is the article

[DrDawkinstein]

Thank you and I agree that the BBMB is a joke.

 

This is the counter-argument I get from EVERY Bills fan that thinks the Oline is bad/garbage, which I truly dont understand. Some say that its chans offense that is the somehow hiding the Oline, while I feel that its chans offense that is protecting/hiding Fitzpatrick and his accuracy issues and his overall game in general.

 

 

Why is it ONLY one OR the other? How about Chan's offense helped make Fitz AND the OL look better than they are?

 

How about the fact that BOTH Fitz and the OL are mediocre. They can all play very well, or horribly, depending on the week. When everyone is healthy and they are complimenting each other, they play well. But when one starts to falter, the whole thing turns into a mess.

 

Both the QB and LT positions can, and eventually should be upgraded. But right now, we are in a much stronger position to upgrade the LT position and have that upgrade pay dividends. Also, given the fact that Bell is a FA, it dictates that the LT position MUST be addressed this offseason, one way or another.

 

If you are going to be a glass-is-always-half-empty, and everything is black OR white, guy... please return to BBMB. The rest of the post about "football smarts vs brains" doesnt make much sense anyways.

Edited February 14, 2012 by DrDareustein

[The Big Cat]

I believe that this is the article

 

Thank you, sir.

 

It's good to see the PR Machine has its finger on the pulse of perceived reality.

[papazoid]

Ranking 20 out of 32 is not great...

If we were talking math, ranking 20th out of 32 is a failing grade.

 

Or let's say your kid comes home and says hey mom and dad guess what? In my class of 32 students I'm the 20th. If it were a class of geniuses I'm sure you wouldn't mind. Such is not the case with NFL QB's. There's only top ten material.

 

If we want to make the playoffs it would help if our QB ranked in the top ten meaning he was accurate and/or his receivers caught the balls he threw. I'm not here saying Fitz is or isn't the guy that will take us to the playoffs but what I AM saying is if we want to make the playoffs? It would help if Fitz ranked in the top ten in overall rankings.

 

It still won't b a given because he finished 14th this year but top ten would help.

 

 

Top 20 is not great ???.....how many other bills can you name who are Top 20 at their positions ??

 

i'll help you....less than 10 players:

 

FOR SURE: Fred Jackson, Kyle Williams, Fitz, Wood, Levitre

 

PROBABLY: Dareus

 

MAYBE: Stevie, Barnett

 

 

my point is, that Fitz is NOT near our biggest problem. i understand the importance of a GREAT qb, but assuming the bills sit at #10, i wouldn't "reach" for a qb. we have MANY other needs.

 

it's like McGahee being replaced by Lynch being replaced by Jackson and now Spiller. has each been an upgrade?....thats arguable, while other areas get neglected.

[D2K]

Why is it ONLY one OR the other? How about Chan's offense helped make Fitz AND the OL look better than they are?

 

How about the fact that BOTH Fitz and the OL are mediocre. They can all play very well, or horribly, depending on the week. When everyone is healthy and they are complimenting each other, they play well. But when one starts to falter, the whole thing turns into a mess.

 

Both the QB and LT positions can, and eventually should be upgraded. But right now, we are in a much stronger position to upgrade the LT position and have that upgrade pay dividends. Also, given the fact that Bell is a FA, it dictates that the LT position MUST be addressed this offseason, one way or another.

 

If you are going to be a glass-is-always-half-empty, and everything is black OR white, guy... please return to BBMB. The rest of the post about "football smarts vs brains" doesnt make much sense anyways.

 

So let me get this right: You are advocating a LT with the 10th overall pick? Essentially taking away a top-tier talent at a spot that is conducive to grabbing

playmakers" (DE/LB/CB/WR), while drafting for a unit that FINISHED the season tops in the league (oline)?

 

When a team is devoid of playmakers, adding depth to the Oline with that pick seems comical. Every significant stat in the world screams that the problem is the QB and not that of the Oline, yet some people are insistant with the thought process of LT's win games, not the position (QB) that touches the ball on EVERY offensive snap? I just cant understand this line of thinking?

 

How am I a glass is half empty poster, when the only gripe I have had is with who is behind center? This entire post has been about how well I think the Offensive line has played and that it is the most underrated unit that this regime has fielded. Contrary to your argument that I am a glass half empty guy.

Edited February 14, 2012 by D2K

[Dopey]

I'm not as down on Fitz as you, but I am as high on the OL as you. I'm giving him a one year reprieve based on the cracked rib factor. Have fun on here though because people like to disregard facts. The Buffalo Bills allowed the least sacks in the NFL, were 4th in YPC and 1st on YPC on 1st down. Yet literally more than half the people on here will tell you straight up that our OL downright sucks.

Bill Parcells used to say " you are what your record says you are", well we our Oline is what the #'s say. The least amount of sacks in the NFL can't be attributed only to Fitz, the Oline had something to do with that stat. This was also done with injuries to our 1st string LT, 2nd string LT,2nd or 3rd option at C,LG switching to LG and C, hell the only guy to play 16 games in his spot was RT. IF this Oline can stay relatively healthy, we will be just fine next season(hopefully we resign Bell). Going into last season, we thought the worst of our Oline, this season I'm just hoping for them to stay healthy. Having said all of that, I still wouldn't mind a LT early in the draft since Harrison is a RT to me. We need quality depth.

[BuffaloBillsMagic1]

Drafting the LT from USC or Stanford would make me happy. we'd be set for next ten years.

[stony]

I disagree with you about just everything but this.

 

The comparisons to Kelly (or any other quarterback who played 20 YEARS AGO) are ludicrous.

 

In a league that's only 50 years old, why are we drudging up stats from decades ago, when the game itself transforms every five years or so?

 

Well, he's right about the QBs different #s.

[DrDawkinstein]

So let me get this right: You are advocating a LT with the 10th overall pick? Essentially taking away a top-tier talent at a spot that is conducive to grabbing

playmakers" (DE/LB/CB/WR), while drafting for a unit that FINISHED the season tops in the league (oline)?

 

When a team is devoid of playmakers, adding depth to the Oline with that pick seems comical. Every significant stat in the world screams that the problem is the QB and not that of the Oline, yet some people are insistant with the thought process of LT's win games, not the position (QB) that touches the ball on EVERY offensive snap? I just cant understand this line of thinking?

 

How am I a glass is half empty poster, when the only gripe I have had is with who is behind center? This entire post has been about how well I think the Offensive line has played and that it is the most underrated unit that this regime has fielded. Contrary to your argument that I am a glass half empty guy.

 

I never said that. I said LT needs to be addressed now, before the QB position. And doing so will help us more than replacing our QB.

 

I'm all about drafting Defense, and only defense, if that's the way it plays out. Before the 34->43 switch was announced, I was beating the Upshaw/Hightower at 1 and 2 drum. Furthermore, how have you twisted your "Fitz must be replaced" thread into "We must draft defense at 10"? You're all over the place, dude. Let's stay on a single track so we can actually debate. We'll leave addressing the D out of this, especially since we're in agreement.

 

 

You say "adding depth to the OL". Do you realize that with Bell as a FA we do not have a SINGLE LT on the roster right now?!? Unless you count Hairston, and while I liked how Hairston looked in his rookie season, I'm not sure he is ready to start at LT.

 

Like him or not, I can tell you that Fitz will be our QB in 2012. Who is our starting LT right now?

[D2K]

I never said that. I said LT needs to be addressed now, before the QB position. And doing so will help us more than replacing our QB.

 

I'm all about drafting Defense, and only defense, if that's the way it plays out. Before the 34->43 switch was announced, I was beating the Upshaw/Hightower at 1 and 2 drum. Furthermore, how have you twisted your "Fitz must be replaced" thread into "We must draft defense at 10"? You're all over the place, dude. Let's stay on a single track so we can actually debate. We'll leave addressing the D out of this, especially since we're in agreement.

 

 

You say "adding depth to the OL". Do you realize that with Bell as a FA we do not have a SINGLE LT on the roster right now?!? Unless you count Hairston, and while I liked how Hairston looked in his rookie season, I'm not sure he is ready to start at LT.

 

Like him or not, I can tell you that Fitz will be our QB in 2012. Who is our starting LT right now?

 

I think for the most part we agree. I addressed that defense because I have seen multiple times that certain posters are advocating LT at 10, which like I said makes ZERO sense. Thats how I strayed off of topic a bit.

 

To the rest of your post. I am more than aware that Bell is a FA. The fact is Buffalo has the best chance at resigning him and IMO, when healthy, Bell could be as good as a top 5-10 LT in this league. Furthermore, if Bell is not resigned, I dont see the need of drafting a LT in the first round EVER. A LT wins a team ZERO games. Also, Hairston can play LT no matter what some posters try to make you believe. He performed more than admirably at his position. After BEll went down Hairston faced in order:

 

Babin/JPP/C. Pace/Ware/Wake

 

Thats a tough challenge for ANY LT in this league and he played more than admirable. He can be solid. Lets not lose sight that the kid was a rookie. I think he is more than capable of playing LT in this league. I would much rather him play Swing tackle for another year because again, I think Bell can be one of the better LT's in the league.

 

The QB position needs addressed before this team has any real shot of competing.

Edited February 14, 2012 by D2K

[PDaDdy]

I find this post hilarious. Before Bell went down he was rated number 2 behind only Joe Thomas by PFF grading every starting LT in the league. Let me also add that Eric Wood has not played a single 16 game season in his entire career, should we be looking for his replacement? Chris HAIRSTON (no idea who chris harrison is) played the swing tackle better than anyone could have imagined. He was more then acceptable in his time on the blindisde. That 4th round argument is a terrible one and proves that you are reaching to support a 7th round QB on his 3rd team.

 

You cant possibly convince me that the Giants have great tackles. They were amongst the worst in the league. Not sure where you get your statistics. Diehl started the season as a LG and was forced to move outside because of an injury to Beatty. Diehl was kicked inside to guard because he was no longer capable of holding up at the POA and is a liabilty on that line (as i stated that oline allowed 244 pressures this year). Dont even get me started on Kareem Mackenzie the Giants RT. He is among the absolute bottom feeders at his position and is likely going to be replaced this year. Furthermore, the best LT's in the league are probably Joe Thomas of Cleveland and Jake Long of the Dolphins, those guys combined for 1 playoff appearance in their careers COMBINED. LT is such an overrated position in todays NFL because offenses arent reliant on the 9 routes and verticals to move the ball.

 

I am glad that you brought up the NO saints Oline. Here is a rundown of the player and their draft round:

 

Carl Nicks - 5th round

 

Jahri Evans - 4th round

 

Jermon Bushrod - 4th round

 

Those are the Pro Bowlers that you speak of, and NOT ONE of them was drafted before the 4th round.

 

I am not sure what point you were trying to make, but an Olineman at 10 is about as ill-conceived a pick as another RB.

 

I'm glad you laughed but you missed an opportunity for education. It's not where you're drafted it's how you play. Our line doesn't afford Fitz more than 2.68 seconds to get rid of the ball. THAT is not good enough. End of story. All you need to know.

 

It's not where you are drafted it's how you play. Despite where those guys were drafted I'll bet some made probowl not to mention the other guys around them on their respective lines. How many of our guys made it?

 

I'm not saying our REAL LT of the future is there at #10 but we NEED our REAL LT of the future and some WRs before we worry about Fitz. He's signed for a bunch of years and a bunch of money. Support our starter or be a whiny hater.

Edited February 14, 2012 by PDaDdy

[K-9]

... To the rest of your post. I am more than aware that Bell is a FA. The fact is Buffalo has the best chance at resigning him and IMO, when healthy, Bell could be as good as a top 5-10 LT in this league. Furthermore, if Bell is not resigned, I dont see the need of drafting a LT in the first round EVER. A LT wins a team ZERO games. Also, Hairston can play LT no matter what some posters try to make you believe. He performed more than admirably at his position. After BEll went down Hairston faced in order:

 

Babin/JPP/C. Pace/Ware/Wake

 

Thats a tough challenge for ANY LT in this league and he played more than admirable. He can be solid. Lets not lose sight that the kid was a rookie. I think he is more than capable of playing LT in this league. I would much rather him play Swing tackle for another year because again, I think Bell can be one of the better LT's in the league.

 

The QB position needs addressed before this team has any real shot of competing.

 

I think Hairston showed very well last season, all things considered. While I would prefer re-signing Bell, I think Hairston has a lot of upside and I don't think it's a critical need. But if the Bills (and I'm not saying they will) determine that an OT is the BPA when their turn comes up, I have no qualms about them taking him.

 

As to the bolded portion, I think it clearly depends on who that OT is that's available in the draft. If you're looking at the next Ogden, Pace, Munoz then you take him and don't worry about it for the next 10 years. Guys like that give you so much scheme flexibility up front.

 

While it's true that an OT is not gonna win a game, a poor one is certainly capable of losing some games for you.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[PDaDdy]

Can we PLEASE for the last time consolidate all of these disguised Fitz isn't good enough with the crap WRs and 2.68 second offensive line we have. Seriously! Make one big I want to whine that Fitz isn't 1 of a hand of of franchise QBs that nobody can define statistically threads? AGAIN I DOUBLE DOG DARE ANYONE, ANYONE AT ALL TO DEFINE STATISTICALLY WHAT A FRANCHISE QB IS!!?!?!? If you can't you really need to stop whining. IF someone actually takes the challenge I have been issuing for weeks and does statistically define a franchise QB tell me how many guys meet that criteria. Also show me the offensive linemen giving them more than 3 seconds to throw and the hand outside the torso catchers that they are throwing to.

 

Keep on whining! Keep on dreaming. Try coming up with some facts though.

[Adam]

Neither Fitzpatrick, nor our offensive tackles are good enough. Fitzpatrick is a very good backup QB.

[The Big Cat]

Can we PLEASE for the last time consolidate all of these disguised Fitz isn't good enough with the crap WRs and 2.68 second offensive line we have. Seriously! Make one big I want to whine that Fitz isn't 1 of a hand of of franchise QBs that nobody can define statistically threads? AGAIN I DOUBLE DOG DARE ANYONE, ANYONE AT ALL TO DEFINE STATISTICALLY WHAT A FRANCHISE QB IS!!?!?!? If you can't you really need to stop whining. IF someone actually takes the challenge I have been issuing for weeks and does statistically define a franchise QB tell me how many guys meet that criteria. Also show me the offensive linemen giving them more than 3 seconds to throw and the hand outside the torso catchers that they are throwing to.

 

Keep on whining! Keep on dreaming. Try coming up with some facts though.

 

So you're saying the Bills don't need a franchise quarterback? You're stupid.