MattM Posted February 11, 2012 Posted February 11, 2012 (edited) Sorry if this idea has been posted before, but it struck me recently that despite the fact that both CB and DE/pass rushing OLB are high cost players the smart play strategy-wise is to go for the DE/OLB over the CB largely because at most a shutdown corner can only take up to 1/3rd of a QB's options out of a play on any given play while all a DE/OLB has to do is win his matchup to get to the QB. Basically, all you need is one DL or LB to beat his man and get to the QB to either force a sack or a bad throw while the best a corner can do is take away a portion of the available options for the QB to throw to. Seems like an asymmetrical payout to me. In light of that, I'm not sure why teams go CB before they go DE/OLB. As noted in the title thread that may be symptomatic of weak strategy over the years on the part of the Bills, who seem to love drafting CBs high in the draft. Thoughts? Edited February 11, 2012 by MattM
KD in CA Posted February 12, 2012 Posted February 12, 2012 (edited) A good pass rusher can be double teamed, but you can't stop a good CB from shutting down one of your WR options. That said, DE remains the Bills' #1 need. Edited February 12, 2012 by KD in CT
Dr. Fong Posted February 12, 2012 Posted February 12, 2012 I agree. I believe that the gap between elite defensive linemen and average starting defensive linemen is much larger than at cornerback. I also believe that the defensive line has a greater impact on the game. If I were building a team defensive line is where I would start.
jjmac Posted February 12, 2012 Posted February 12, 2012 Sorry if this idea has been posted before, but it struck me recently that despite the fact that both CB and DE/pass rushing OLB are high cost players the smart play strategy-wise is to go for the DE/OLB over the CB largely because at most a shutdown corner can only take up to 1/3rd of a QB's options out of a play on any given play while all a DE/OLB has to do is win his matchup to get to the QB. Basically, all you need is one DL or LB to beat his man and get to the QB to either force a sack or a bad throw while the best a corner can do is take away a portion of the available options for the QB to throw to. Seems like an asymmetrical payout to me. In light of that, I'm not sure why teams go CB before they go DE/OLB. As noted in the title thread that may be symptomatic of weak strategy over the years on the part of the Bills, who seem to love drafting CBs high in the draft. Thoughts? I see it this way. It doesn't matter what kind of defense you run, it all begins with the horses up front. However, since we are switching to a 4-3, there will be less pressure on the CBs. Therefore, the higher priority this year is definitely the front 7.
Numark Posted February 12, 2012 Posted February 12, 2012 Both positions are very valuable. We don't address CBs with high draft picks more than the rest of the league does, that is a TBD myth.
jjmac Posted February 12, 2012 Posted February 12, 2012 Both positions are very valuable. We don't address CBs with high draft picks more than the rest of the league does, that is a TBD myth. True, both positions are valuable, but don't agree that we need more pass rush?
Numark Posted February 12, 2012 Posted February 12, 2012 (edited) My personal opinion is that the entire defense (apart from safety) needs more talent and the offense is in a much better shape (let fitz, freddy, and the receiving core get healthy and add a #2WR and some O-line depth). So yea we need some help in the pass rush department but we are not as talented at CB and LB as people think. McGee is not reliable (not to mention is his level of play has dropped a lot lately even when healthy), McKelvin is inconsistent, Florence is not only inconsistent but getting old, and Rodgers and Williams (while both have shown some awesome flashes) are still young. Our CB group is far from ready to go and will be addressed this offseason (hopefully in FA). So what I am saying is why pick and choose, both should be giant priorities this offseason and arguing which one is more important isn't a biggie. But if I had to pick one a star at the DE position it would be. And nice job on the 500 posts! Edited February 12, 2012 by Numark
Tcali Posted February 12, 2012 Posted February 12, 2012 agree...building from the outside in is a recipe for failure.
Buffalo Barbarian Posted February 12, 2012 Posted February 12, 2012 A good pass rusher can be double teamed, but you can't stop a good CB from shutting down one of your WR options. That said, DE remains the Bills' #1 need.
bowery4 Posted February 12, 2012 Posted February 12, 2012 http://blogs.buffalonews.com/billboard/2012/02/routt-reportedly-to-visit-bills.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+typepad%2Fbuffalonews%2Fbillboard+%28BillBoard%29
spartacus Posted February 12, 2012 Posted February 12, 2012 Both positions are very valuable. We don't address CBs with high draft picks more than the rest of the league does, that is a TBD myth. hit me with those manipulated stats one more time maybe also focus on the part where the Bills obsession with first round RBs and DBs did not severely hinder the upgrading of the OTs and front seven on this team drafting one OT in teh first round in the last 18 years would tend to support the premise that resources were spent on "small" players to the deteriment of improving the trenches regardless of the above, the bigger problem has been that the players selected have not been very good - no playmakers at any position drafted
Over 29 years of fanhood Posted February 12, 2012 Posted February 12, 2012 You really need both. You beat great pash rushes by getting the ball out quick, which is easier against lousy corners that can't jam, or by running at the key rusher / screens if the linebackers stink. Point being one dimensional approach fail no matterbwhich you choose...
1billsfan Posted February 12, 2012 Posted February 12, 2012 The CB and KO return specialist have become devalued positions due to the new NFL rules. I'd have a hard time using a top 10 on a CB.
Nanker Posted February 12, 2012 Posted February 12, 2012 Kill the head, and the body will die. Without pressure to the opposing QB on any given Sunday our Defensive backfield looks like Shirley Temple trying to cover Bob Hayes.
MattM Posted February 12, 2012 Author Posted February 12, 2012 Some interesting thoughts. On further reflection, and factoring in time/number of plays into the equation, I back off my original conclusion slightly considering that a great pass rusher will get about a sack and a pressure or two a game on average, meaning that if a QB goes back 30 times in a game and the pass rusher plays on 20-25 of those plays he gets to the QB only about 10% to 20% of the time he's in the game vs a CB who, while he only shuts down one QB option, can do that repeatedly on a larger percentage of the opposition's passing plays....
BADOLBILZ Posted February 12, 2012 Posted February 12, 2012 My personal opinion is that the entire defense (apart from safety) needs more talent and the offense is in a much better shape (let fitz, freddy, and the receiving core get healthy and add a #2WR and some O-line depth). So yea we need some help in the pass rush department but we are not as talented at CB and LB as people think. McGee is not reliable (not to mention is his level of play has dropped a lot lately even when healthy), McKelvin is inconsistent, Florence is not only inconsistent but getting old, and Rodgers and Williams (while both have shown some awesome flashes) are still young. Our CB group is far from ready to go and will be addressed this offseason (hopefully in FA). So what I am saying is why pick and choose, both should be giant priorities this offseason and arguing which one is more important isn't a biggie. But if I had to pick one a star at the DE position it would be. And nice job on the 500 posts! When half of your draft picks in a 40 year span are either RB's or DB's you either have had a lot of luck finding QB's, OT's and pass rushers or you have a flawed approach to the draft. As we know, those positions have not been strengths. At most, runnin' bax and DB's account for 6 starters out of 22 starting positions on offense and defense. So half your first round picks have been made to fill 27% your starting positions. Even if you subscribe to the theory that all positions are equally important.......which I most certainly do not......the Bills are guilty as charged. The Bills failure to treat the draft as a process and properly weight and select the right players is the result of a flawed, ever changing organizational approach to winning which can be best summed up as "losing".
Numark Posted February 13, 2012 Posted February 13, 2012 hit me with those manipulated stats one more time maybe also focus on the part where the Bills obsession with first round RBs and DBs did not severely hinder the upgrading of the OTs and front seven on this team drafting one OT in teh first round in the last 18 years would tend to support the premise that resources were spent on "small" players to the deteriment of improving the trenches regardless of the above, the bigger problem has been that the players selected have not been very good - no playmakers at any position drafted I am not talking about running backs or safetys. I said CBs. So ladies and gentleman here are these manipulated stats I made up!!!! We have drafted a total of........3 Cornerbacks in rounds 1 or 2 since the year 2000!
DefenseWins Posted February 13, 2012 Posted February 13, 2012 I am not talking about running backs or safetys. I said CBs. So ladies and gentleman here are these manipulated stats I made up!!!! We have drafted a total of........3 Cornerbacks in rounds 1 or 2 since the year 2000! This whole thread is F-cked. It's not a problem of overdrafting or underdrafting at any one or two positions. It's the quality of the players you are getting since 2000 in those 1st two rounds. Passing up Orakpo for Maybins? Drafting RB's like McGahee (who we knew was gonna have to sit out that first season?) Lynch (Mr HitnRun)... and now Spiller? (who can't beat out Fred but WANTS to start!) I am not going to go over the litany of bad early picks this organization has made yet again, but suffice to say, until this organization starts drafting better in those early rounds especially, this team won't get much better... And how bout picking up a backup center so that if your #1 guy gets injured you don't have to move guys all around and out of their natural postions creating chaos everywhere!... It's not exactly rocket science - especially when you are 19+million under the cap as PFT is now reporting...
ganesh Posted February 13, 2012 Posted February 13, 2012 I agree. I believe that the gap between elite defensive linemen and average starting defensive linemen is much larger than at cornerback. I also believe that the defensive line has a greater impact on the game. If I were building a team defensive line is where I would start. The Bills have spent considerable draft picks on the DL. The problem is most of those picks have not panned out... Chris Kelsay was a top half 2nd round pick Poz was a 2nd round pick McCargo cost us a 1st and 2nd round pick Troupe was a 2nd round pick Carrington cost us a 3rd round Dareus was a top 4 pick Sheppard was a 3rd round pick and a few more...The only success from that has been Dareus...
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