Football outsiders assessment of Bills needs

[Billsrhody]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MPMmC0UAnj0

[1B4IDie]

My point in bringing up the 0.9 yd/game was to point out that it is almost a tie in the 3rd category and Dez is the clear leader in the other 2.

 

Riiiiight. Stats are irrelevant. Let's just give everyone a fat contract and a gold star because they tried hard. It's crap like that that is making our children ill prepared for the world they will grow up and live in. If you're good you will have the grades or stats to prove it. Worlds apart or slight difference Dez Bryant is a better WR. He's technically not even the #1 target on his team. See what I am saying?

 

Again I like our guys and hope they do well but when we compare them to other teams that have REAL talent....our guys don't stack up. You can't have a probowler at every position. I understand that. Those guys may be effective in our system which is to flood the defense with passing options but that doesn't make them great WRs. Are they bad...HELL NO! Are there many that are better....HELL YES!

What the hell are you talking about?

I AM TELLING you that I think that when you talk about where a WR stack ranks in line in stats it gives you little to no value.

We're talking about 74 yards and 2 TDs different in a 16 game schedule. Instead of saying "tied for #6 and tied for #21" say "9TDs and 7TDs"

It is meaningless to bring up where someone stank ranks in a season.

 

I am saying you need to look at empirical numbers not stank ranking and certaintly not gold stars.

Edited February 11, 2012 by Why So Serious?

[CSBill]

Buffalo Bills: Defensive end

The flirtation with the 3-4 defense for Buffalo lasted barely a year, just long enough to get defensive coordinator George Edwards fired, and now the team will turn to new hire Dave Wannstadt to undo the experiment and bring back a base 4-3. The move makes perfect sense, as it allows the Bills to line up their two best players, Kyle Williams and Marcell Dareus, side-by-side. That should give them the freedom to penetrate and make plays rather than requiring them to hold their ground and soak up blockers as they would in a 3-4. It's a move that should help stiffen up the interior run defense, which gave up 4.52 yards per carry on runs between the guards last year. It probably won't do much to generate more pass rush, however, as it's unreasonable to ask for Dareus to improve much upon his rookie total of 5.5 sacks.

 

An elite pass-rushing defensive end would be a key addition for Buffalo. The Bills have youngsters like Alex Carrington and veterans such as Chris Kelsay and Dwan Edwards, but none of them can be expected to suddenly morph into a double-digit sack threat. There is little doubt that the team will make every effort to address the position, but it is unlikely to land a premiere talent like Mario Williams in free agency, so improvement may have to come from the draft.

 

The other major priority is to re-sign Steve Johnson, who established himself as a legitimate No. 1 receiver in his first year as a starter. The team will want to add another receiver regardless, as neither David Nelson nor Donald Jones showed much playmaking ability, but receiver would turn into a gaping hole should Johnson decide to skip town.

 

yeah, as mentioned, except for a few incorrect details, it seems "On Point!" Need a DE, keep Stevie, and add help -- letting him walk would just open another huge hole to fill. And I love David Nelson, but he is a role player, not a #1, or 2 for that matter.

[RevWarRifleman]

Because they have an objective view Something that people too close to things sometimes lose.

 

I did the 'Outsider' play on words dig for their calling Wannstadt a "new hire." Not about their overall opinion. That's all.

[3rdand12]

democratic dialogue is awesome! Thanks guys seriously. An aggresive and somewhat civil debate just gets the blood going again.

Nelson has a potential to develop under the new wr coach and QB coaching. As does Stevie.

Heck even Metz might have some pointers for the WR's in general on how to step up to the next level.

[Best Player Available]

Nelson has a potential to develop under the new wr coach and QB coaching. As does Stevie.

Heck even Metz might have some pointers for the WR's in general on how to step up to the next level.

At some point doesn't just the lack of talent be it speed, hands, etc. trump the fact that no coach

can help players who simply cannot start in the NFL. I am speaking of Nelson here. His biggest asset is his his cute Dallas girlfriend and scripted TD celebrations.Sorry but there is a reason some of these guys last to the 7th or are UDFA's. I have even less regard for most defensive players taken in 2010 by Nix. Almost a draft of complete busts yet some think the light will now go on with Wanny. Maybe, but I again see raw talent as the first and most defining thing a young player has going for him. All the coaching won't do anything if NFL caliber talent is missing. Here's hoping the Bills draft talent in April instead of the small school players, with potential script they sometimes have used with zero success. Perhaps some long needed pink slips in scouting have corrected that.

[1B4IDie]

At some point doesn't just the lack of talent be it speed, hands, etc. trump the fact that no coach

can help players who simply cannot start in the NFL. I am speaking of Nelson here. His biggest asset is his his cute Dallas girlfriend and scripted TD celebrations.Sorry but there is a reason some of these guys last to the 7th or are UDFA's. I have even less regard for most defensive players taken in 2010 by Nix. Almost a draft of complete busts yet some think the light will now go on with Wanny. Maybe, but I again see raw talent as the first and most defining thing a young player has going for him. All the coaching won't do anything if NFL caliber talent is missing. Here's hoping the Bills draft talent in April instead of the small school players, with potential script they sometimes have used with zero success. Perhaps some long needed pink slips in scouting have corrected that.

Yeah Nelson was a scholarship WR at the university of Florida because he has no talent and no hands.

spot on assessment, you should write for Football Outsiders.

Maybe it was Tim Tebow's lack of throwing ability that caused Nelson to become a priority UDFA?

No, like BPA says he was an UDFA because Nelson has no talent and no hands. Because BPA is an awesome judge of talent. BPA should be on the Bills' scouting staff.

Edited February 12, 2012 by Why So Serious?

[Best Player Available]

Yeah Nelson was a scholarship WR at the university of Florida because he has no talent and no hands.

spot on assessment, you should write for Football Outsiders.

Maybe it was Tim Tebow's lack of throwing ability that caused Nelson to become a priority UDFA?

No, like BPA says he was an UDFA because Nelson has no talent and no hands. Because BPA is an awesome judge of talent. BPA should be on the Bills' scouting staff.

A "priority UDFA" LOL! Was that mid tier or high tier priority UDFA? Tell me how many walk ons at Univ of Florida?

[1B4IDie]

A "priority UDFA" LOL! Was that mid tier or high tier priority UDFA? Tell me how many walk ons at Univ of Florida?

Are you not familiar with the term Priority UDFA? That's gonna hurt your already awesome scouting cred.

 

Doesn't really matter how many walk ons are at the University of Florida since David Nelson was the 58th-overall prospect in the country and sixth at the wide receiver position coming out of High School and like I said before he received an atheltic scholarship at a skilled position in one of the best football programs in the country.

[Dragonborn10]

Why is it unreasonable to expect a rookie DE to improve from 5.5 sacks per game? That's ok, but for starting all 16 games it's not exactly "Bruce Smith numbers"

5.5 sacks from the DT spot is pretty good. If he gets to 8 from the DT spot he will be an All-Pro.

[3rdand12]

5.5 sacks from the DT spot is pretty good. If he gets to 8 from the DT spot he will be an All-Pro.

With a healthy Williams next to him our pressure in the middle might cause everyone one to dink dunk screen and run outside and Brady to have a little wet spot when he lines up. I dont expect to see sacks so much as creating dysfunction in the back field, and our secondary all of a sudden looking very good. If we can bring a pass rush from outside and an upgrade at our #2 or #1! at the WR and keep Stevie well we might have something.

[BuffOrange]

oh no! is "playmaker" going to be debated like "franchise qb" and "#1 receiver?"

 

Apparently, yes? I thought it was common knowledge a "playmaking wr" was a guy who is a threat to haul in a 40yd catch at any given time - either through the air or yac. Yet the guy arguing Nelson's a playmaker insists there's a defender draped all over him every catch he makes

[eball]

Where does a 40 front get its pass rush from? DE's. And Buffalo doesn't have one proven to be a bonafide pass rusher with the only options on the roster being an aging Kelsay (a base end) and Carrington (another bigger base end). And whatever production from DT's is a bonus. Buffalo needs a 7 tech or 9 tech who rushes from the RDE spot. And anyone mentioning Shawne Merriman clearly is wishing upon a star. The guy is cooked and hasn't rushed with a hand in the ground in his entire NFL career.

 

FO may be off in a few small details, but their analysis is spot-on. Buffalo needs more pass rush help immediately, has no depth at WR where former UDFA's were counted on to provide the difference, and if Johnson leaves they have nothing proven. David Nelson averaged less than 11 yards per reception, and had 50 yards receiving in only 2 of the last 13 games. He is at best a third receiver.

Hard to disagree with any of this.

[Dopey]

Lasted barely a year? They were implementing it over two seasons. They obviously stepped back once they shifted more to 4-3 looks in mid-season, but 3-4 came in with Gailey. These guys are definitely off the mark.

Maybe he was talking calender year. Before you start, I got ripped for not distinguishing between a calender year and a season on this site. Season starts in Sept and the next season starts the following Sept. Start and end 1 season and begin the next season + a few games and it's barely over a year. Just saying.

 

Um Stevie Johnson started two years in a row.

David Nelson has playmaking ability.

Wanny isn't a new hire.

 

They switched to the 4-3 two years ago.

 

Yeah besides that spot on.

They switched to the 4-3 two years ago. Really?!? I must have been asleep or drunk for two seasons. Damn beer.

 

At some point doesn't just the lack of talent be it speed, hands, etc. trump the fact that no coach

can help players who simply cannot start in the NFL. I am speaking of Nelson here. His biggest asset is his his cute Dallas girlfriend and scripted TD celebrations.Sorry but there is a reason some of these guys last to the 7th or are UDFA's. I have even less regard for most defensive players taken in 2010 by Nix. Almost a draft of complete busts yet some think the light will now go on with Wanny. Maybe, but I again see raw talent as the first and most defining thing a young player has going for him. All the coaching won't do anything if NFL caliber talent is missing. Here's hoping the Bills draft talent in April instead of the small school players, with potential script they sometimes have used with zero success. Perhaps some long needed pink slips in scouting have corrected that.

I think we all realize the 2010 draft wasn't that good, yet. I'm waiting 'till this season to see how Spiller,Troup,Carrington, and especially Easley work out. If our 1st 3-4 picks play well next season, I'll change my mind on the 2010 draft. Considering it was his 1st draft for us and how late the staff came together, I'll give him a pass(already have).Maybe I'm old(well, not maybe), but it used to take 2-3 seasons to evaluate a draft. I still like that theory.

Edited February 14, 2012 by Dopey

[3rdand12]

Especially in our case! with injuries for some and little play time for others, then the lock out for all. I feel we drafted more effectively this last draft throughout. Dopey i think your draft theory is sound. us old guys have more patience maybe?

[Maury Ballstein]

At some point doesn't just the lack of talent be it speed, hands, etc. trump the fact that no coach

can help players who simply cannot start in the NFL. I am speaking of Nelson here. His biggest asset is his his cute Dallas girlfriend and scripted TD celebrations.Sorry but there is a reason some of these guys last to the 7th or are UDFA's. I have even less regard for most defensive players taken in 2010 by Nix. Almost a draft of complete busts yet some think the light will now go on with Wanny. Maybe, but I again see raw talent as the first and most defining thing a young player has going for him. All the coaching won't do anything if NFL caliber talent is missing. Here's hoping the Bills draft talent in April instead of the small school players, with potential script they sometimes have used with zero success. Perhaps some long needed pink slips in scouting have corrected that.

 

 

Seriously? Did you watch any Bills games this past season? David Nelson played great and caught pretty much everything thrown his way. Nelson is a INCREDIBLE #3 and I will sign up right now for another 10 years of Nelson...

 

I don't understand how TBD'ers can bash the only players that play well and give the rest of the bums a free pass. Nelson is a 3# who will produce well for years to come

[dave mcbride]

I'm gonna cut through the ten layers of uninformed BS here about David Nelson that's on display here:

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/don_banks/04/02/list/index.html .

 

That article is from April 2010, a couple of weeks before the draft.

 

Nelson is a good (not great) player. He's hardly the problem.

 

And yes, "priority free agent" is a real term.

Edited February 15, 2012 by dave mcbride

[K-9]

I'm gonna cut through the ten layers of uninformed BS here about David Nelson that's on display here:

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/don_banks/04/02/list/index.html .

 

That article is from April 2010, a couple of weeks before the draft.

 

Nelson is a good (not great) player. He's hardly the problem.

 

And yes, "priority free agent" is a real term.

 

Interesting that the Bills ended up with 3 out of the 10 on that list. I haven't waded through the thread, but it's hard to believe people would rag on Nelson. He's a good player.

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Best Player Available]

I'm gonna cut through the ten layers of uninformed BS here about David Nelson that's on display here:

 

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/don_banks/04/02/list/index.html .

 

He's hardly the problem.

 

And yes, "priority free agent" is a real term.

Nobody said he is the problem? It certainly wasn't anything I have commented on. He's mediocre even with the vaunted Fitz out there. But the BS gets thick with "priority free agents"! Your talking about signing a player past and beyond the famous "Mr. irrelevant pick" Lets stay grounded when talking about un-drafter players on the 6-10 Bills. he is what he is. He would sit on any potent play off teams bench. Some UDFA's become super stars. This is not the case here at all. But hey lets blame Tebow.LOL

 

Flame away and question my fan status now.

[1B4IDie]

Nobody said he is the problem? It certainly wasn't anything I have commented on. He's mediocre even with the vaunted Fitz out there. But the BS gets thick with "priority free agents"! Your talking about signing a player past and beyond the famous "Mr. irrelevant pick" Lets stay grounded when talking about un-drafter players on the 6-10 Bills. he is what he is. He would sit on any potent play off teams bench. Some UDFA's become super stars. This is not the case here at all. But hey lets blame Tebow.LOL

 

Flame away and question my fan status now.

By the way it is "You're talking" and "any potential playoff team's bench"

 

besides the grammatical issues.

 

That is your opinion based on your wealth of knowledge but not a generally accepted opinion, thanks for the knowledgeable, well thought out enlightenment.

Edited February 15, 2012 by Why So Serious?